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Perfect. Pensioners always be wanting more for nothing.

In this regard, it is notable that the 5% increase on pensions exceeds the salary increase awarded to UK employees and is only marginally less than the December 2023 RPI figure. Moreover, over the last ten years bp pensions have increased by more than the increase in the consumer price index (CPI), which is used by the government to calculate the cost of living

Even though I sold all of my position on Friday - I agree with MarkGo - fundamentals here remain strong and I wouldnt be worried if I was a shareholder. If OPEC maintains cuts this year will be another strong one, combined with more tempered language from Murray the bp investment proposition could turn on its head

“ Another ‘growth engine runs out of fuel . How much money have they wasted on non-commercial Businesses.”

A swing and a miss Exploration, they said in the last investor call Germany and China is already cash flow positive.

Looks like it was very much baked in which is why it rose 2-3% on Fridya:

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https://www.ft.com/content/3bbeb6b5-b9b6-4474-a858-cc8a23c448ba

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said the calibrated nature of the attacks and the fact that they were well telegraphed had eased oil market concerns.

“We had a build-up in the oil price before the weekend and so a geopolitical price premium was already built in prior to this event,” he said.

Hopefully Israel doesnt react, although If a country launched 300 drones/missiles at the UK I'm not sure we'd show the same restraint... for now the situation seems calmer which is a win for the most important thing - humanity.

I think you have to take this as bullish for oil price - a destablised Middle East means only one thing for oil prices.

I thought the reaction from Iran would be a bit more muted rather than a direct strike. But it seems like they have taken an escalatory step and the oil price will follow upwards if missiles follow the drone strikes.

Superb Rhino! Bunch of divis to boot!

Sold all at 539p - nice £5k profit in all - still fundamentally bullish here but didnt like the overexposure. If I wasnt reliant on them to pay my mortgage I'd still be in!

GLA!

Thanks for sharing Mark! I’ll make my own mind up on a sell/hold shortly! 😂

Wouldnt worry about that Charlie, we know bp struggles to hold gains.

I'm conflicted on if I sell a c: £45k position in bp soon. Again, my case is slightly different as I'm a little overexposed being an employee but the macro fundamentals are telling me not to -it feels like I'm trying to find a reason to sell and ignoring the below:

Bull case

1. Coming into higher demand seasonality, June brent contract at $90+

2. OPEC will still continue with their production cuts to support brent into mid 90's (brent used a base)

3. bp already promised $3.5bn buybacks in H1, still target a 4% pa increase in divi, so when this comes the SP will boost

4. ADNOC news is bullish

5. Murrary A has been downplaying previous production targets externally

6. Middle east tensions - Iran yet to strike back on israel for embassy attack

7. 12 month high was 562 at $94 brent - we could easily reach this with improved demand data from China (rumours circling)

Bear case

1. Bp doesnt hold gains

2. Middle east tensions die down as US gets more involved

3. OPEC starts reversing cuts to not impact demand (although I think this is nearer to $100)

4. Inflation stays sticky in the US (althought I dont think 3% inflation is bad if the target is 2%.

Agree Spights, think US investors will give more credence to M&A talk. oil sticking at $90 helps also.

Looking forward to Q1 results now! Not for the results but for the analyst Q&A.

I should add that someone on this board suggested a tie up with ADNOC a few months ago when looney was still in charge, looks like someones got insider knowledge!

Can imagine it wasn’t just ADNOC, we have an integrated value chain that many state producers lack and are accessible at a sum that is their royal families supercar budget for a few years 😂

Also I said this last time and people didn’t agree: “UK governments have in the past told London-listed BP that they would block any takeover attempts by foreign entities given the company's strategic value, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.“

He'll make more money in his first year in Abu Dhabi than he did the whole of his career - hence why he didnt fight the compensation clawback.

Nice little rise this morning, will sell some of my ISA holdings soon as I'm a little overexposed and this rise is exactly what I was waiting for

Meoryou, to your comment on OPEC controlling - completely agree. Today shows the underlying strength in oil markets and the (lack of) response to a US CPI miss should encourage holders.

Enjoy your holiday!

US CPI: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/10/us-cpi-comes-in-faster-than-hoped-rising-04-in-march/

I imagine they'll let Shell go quicker than they'll let bp go. However I can't see either happening. As soon as Shell starts to hire lawyers to make the switch, Wael will recieve an invitation to 10 downing street, be wined, dined and 6ty-nined and suddenly the O&G political pressure cooker will be turned down in the UK.

I'm less optimistic on Sawan, I think what we have here is an oil veteran who has had the path not to take laid out for him by another oil veteran that goes by the name of looney. He's seen what happens to SP when oilers attempt to take a step back and he doesnt want to make a rod for his own back. He's doing/saying everything a new CEO should (we'll do more with less and quicker) without any major advance in strategy, MA is doing very much the same at the present time.

The comments around a US listing are political posturing at best. The UK gov (even if its labour) will pull out all the stops to stop the biggest companies leaving their national exchange. To my previous comment on this, by saying US is more attractive he's confirming to the markets that he doesnt believe he can grow the SP organically, rather than what is technically accounting.

He has given confidence to investors however, something bp is consistently failing to do.

I do note the distinct lack of hubris in Wael's comments - not even been in the job 18months and he's already beating "the SP is not my fault" drum

Meoryou, I imagine Vitol have dealt heavily in urals which has boosted their profits no-end. Trading houses run towards risk and have no qualms about circumventing sanctions/dealing with questionable regimes - have you read 'the world for sale' by Javier Blas?

Interesting this has been picked up on the board now when it was said at FY results - lets hope MA sends a clear message to the market - pulling back on green investments (or punting them into late 2020s) and opens the taps. They'll be a lot of societal pressure but the SP will rocket on the expected earnings increase