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Just reviewed shells results - some thoughts

- Shell and bp strategies are aligning more and more - They've been much cleverer about it though, highlighting where they have new O&G production coming on board and only stating how much they allocated to renewables, not making it front and center of their comms

- Strong set of results, a 20% increase in divi this year piles the pressure on bp to do so the same. Largely self-funding due to amount of buybacks going on however.

- Pretty consistent QoQ performance from them, think they've been helped by higher than expected performance in downstream.

All in all, great set of results. however I don't believe they are undervalued whereas bp are - so this remains the value play for me.

Like all hacks he's missed the detail, instead opting for vaguery around bp not putting their money where there mouth is on renewables, A north sea driller moving to install EV charge points etc, bp's only capability is the cash we have. I do wonder how these hacks get paid to write such drivel when its clear they haven't spent any decent time in an actual business that isn't typing words for ten mins then heading to the pub.

Fact is, due to the strategy it leaves us open to attack from both pro oil and pro renewables - we'll never be seen to be doing enough in either until the integrated returns flow through.

ignore and move on *yawn*

I only really read the FT now for decent journalism and this can be hit and miss at times, particularly around politics

Three weeks in 30c+ heat starkly contrasted to the 6am 10c bike into the office this morning.

Murray's announcement is an interesting one, continuity candidate for sure - I do feel he wont go loud and big in the first 6-9 months, but he'll eek out small changes over the next year. Can't see a further retrenchment in O&G reduction aims, but I anticipate he'll pivot our position on some of the more challenged renewables (wind). I think the SP will react positively, not on O&G production news, but more focused/disciplined capital allocation (he is a CFO at heart after all).

As for short term - think POO could run a little, risk premium isnt built in at all and middle east is hotting up. This will push us back to £5

FY results next week - headlines will say "profits slump", but think we'll see further proof that the business is generating a lot of capital at the current oil price which will flow through to continued buybacks and hopefully a >4% increase in dividend - which should push us through £5 again.

All in all, I remain bullish and interested to see what Murrays first big move will be

On the last day of my holidays, thought I’d check in as I wind down and remembered QoQ we are still accruing dividends from rosneft. Who knows what will happen to this cash but me think it’s not as straight forward as it just gets handed back to Russia

I look forward to reposting this comment come Feb results

Y11

Like 99% of stock posters you fail to put a date on your predictions!

We can all say the stock will fall/rise to x, and it eventually will do so given a long enough horizon

As I checked the news in this 36c south east Asia heat, it seems the leakiness of our exec board continues.

I think we have to take this as true as the ship is not tight at the top. My thoughts:

This is the safe choice. Murray’s an astute operator that the city likes and has been a stable force in his role as CFO. He set out his ‘financial stall’ and hasn’t deviated, even when pushed by analysts to up divi’s or allocate more consistently to buybacks he’s comfortable in retreating to his plan and seeing it through.

Although he won’t, I’d like to see him do a few things to support the share price.

1. Refine our messaging on the wind strategy, the market doesn’t understand this and it’s taking $bns of capital to support

2. Tweak the capital frame to allow for special or higher divi payments if certain metrics are hit - I.e. don’t just blindly allocate excess cash to buybacks

3. Continue to support the growth engines with capital required as he has done so to date

All in all, as an employee I’m happy with this choice although he presents a more introverted personality than looney, I think this is exactly what we need. We don’t need someone to shout and schmooze - we need sound business judgement, a steadfast belief in the plan and the financial nous/ connections to solve the SP issue

Anyway, back to that 36c weather - hope the UK isn’t suffering too much in the cold!

Well then why did you chose to invest in EU majors?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, its up to you if you think there will be continued divergence between EU vs. US oilers, or if the gap will close. Thats the fundamental investment decision in this sector.

It really does depend on your perspective

These things go in cycles - there will be a time where diverse energy portfolio is rewarded, there will be a time (today) where only drilling is rewarded

This is still a company with world class assets with optionality to grow O&G production should we see fit whilst growing a position in large growth vectors - arguably a more attractive play due to our value gap vs. peers

A reduction in divi will compound matters on the SP, let a lone a major restructure of spending plans. if you're disappointed in the SP now why do you want the most material driver of it to be reduced? makes no sense

Its pleasure, I’m happy to report!

HNY all - will be for me as I’m off to south east Asia for most of Jan after this week so you’ll not be enjoying my drivel for a few weeks!

At a £4 share price which is a 15% discount to where we are now ;)

Agree meoryou, think the general trend here is upwards - only an oil price slump would cause this to trend downwards towards £4.00. With Saudi and others realising the gains of keeping oil steady around 70-80$, the continued program of buybacks, new CEO bounce and US seemingly heading for the infamous soft landing I continue to be more bullish than bearish here so I am keeping cash invested here and picking up divi's whilst I wait for the above to mature.

Joker in the pack is the China Econ as it was through 2023, however the govt steps up stimulus everytime so this just chucks more liquidity into the global market which means higher asset prices overall.

Hopefully we get a backwind into Q2 as inflation tempers in EU/UK. The ever increasing role of Iran in the middle east troubles should build a risk premium in too

at £4, with the cash we generate currently, I will finally admit that a merger may be on the cards - a $85bn/$90bn market cap makes us extremely attractive considering what Exxon just bought for 65bn in the US alone.

Enjoy the new year all

I’d say major shareholders are now waiting for the CEO confirmation before moving. Expect to trend sideways until we hear

Theaky, MarkGo

As I previously posted there is very little chance of getting an external in. Board has signed off on the strategy, language since BL's departure has been the strategy remains. What CEO is coming into a new company hamstrung by the board?

Exactly meoryou - the only shares I get as a G is what I sharematch/sharesave - I do stand to benefit from the reinvent plan, but as i said yesterday, after tax this only equates to 2/3k net, per year of the vest period. Suspect Fs and above are on much more substantial share awards

Thats 50% of the rise from 21-23? Anticipate its more shares being awarded after record results

The jump from 21-22 is caused by a large £250m share award to all employees after the big re-org. Not sure how large the share packages went to senior levels, but I’m just below and it’s not very generous once you consider tax

For £32m my morals would go out of the window. I’d air everything 😂

We don’t move on at all - expect looneys lawyers to be chomping at the bit at the amount they could potentially recover for him/ get in fees