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I dont think we'll move materially - the big boys can accurately forecast where our results will be so anything will be priced in - only a blowout trading quarter will move it

Doesn't every CEO pack their leadership team with ally's?

I do think its telling that Tufan walked into a CEO position at RR and Brian walked into a chairman position at INEOS - both highly regarded by industry but tossed aside by bp

Exactly, any minor disruption that may occur can be covered by other suppliers - OPEC will open the taps if oil spikes to demand destruction levels.

I think the broader risk on the Israel - Hamas conflict expanding to other regions of the middle east has largely subsided from investors now, which is why oil is falling slightly as so is the SP.

A war in Israel doesnt hugely impact oil supply, but Iran wading in could lead to more oil embargos and jack up prices - which hasn't happened yet. This risk premium was built into the SP over the last two weeks. It seems to be removing itself from the SP currently.

Now now a Shell and bp merger would send shock waves through the industry.

but as I posted earlier, a super-major acquisition or merger is a magnitude higher than the Chevron/Exxon deals announced.

The acquisitions we are seeing now are a reflection of the industry being cash rich after a bumper 2 year period. It could very well come to bite them should oil dive in the next 12m

Nice gain J.S.B - enjoy the windfall!

If bp repeated the trend we’ve been on since 2020 then I’d love that! Plenty of buying opportunities to come then! And the 12k shares in my company acc will see me benefit

On the historical share price comment, you have to consider a completely new strategy, a lower dividend and the loss of rosneft divi’s and a new incoming CEO All impact SP which doesn’t make this an apples to apples comparison

As I said - still bullish on bp but urge to take profits was stronger for me today! Who knows if I’ll

Be right or not!

For full clarity since I post often. I offloaded all O&G holdings today (bp & shell) across ISA and SIPP. I'm still super bullish but my reasons are as followed:

1) Wanted to see more of a SP reaction this afternoon on $90+ oil holding, I didn't see it

2) The bulk of my holdings came from employee share schemes - didn't like being that over exposed into one sector I'm employed in, and in one holding was standing at a 123% gain

3) Shell/bp have seen constant rises and falls based on POO direction, there will be future buying opps so couldn't resist selling into strength, taking profits and actively waiting for a buy in opportunity again (anywhere £5ish bp/ £24 shell)

Ok Iran wading in more and more each day shows this has legs - we have a west vs. Iran proxy war in the largest oil producing area globally. Bullish

The way brent is moving today best to wait to US open to do anything imo, should bring massive liquidity along with it

Political posturing underway.. I think we'll see a diplomatic end thanks to Bidens visit over the next few days.

The language from the US is very pro Israel but they also intend to meet Palestinian, Jordanian and Egyptian leaders also. So can see a retrenchment in oil price next week

The SP lagging its 52 week high is exactly why I didnt sell yesterday. Doesn't make sense to sell into strong results, geopolitical turmoil impact on POO and a sharecount that is continually reducing

Smart decision, my fingers hovering over Shell & bp to sell

Political debates online are pointless

Shell & bp slowly up rating ahead of results, which should be strong based on all indicators shared in trading updates. I'll be cashing in some/ all of my O&G positions on the anticipated run up over the next four weeks - I can see Q1/Q2 24 being economically challenging so want to secure profits. I'm betting on a retreat in oil price selling early - just a hunch but I think economic growth crunch is coming and with that downward POO

I always feel a bit uneasy when shares I hold benefit from true disasters like wars - but lets be positive and think the continued strength is based on fundamentals into Q4/Q1 next year and a positive from the investor days this week

Hopefully post this investor day we’ll see bp become a more attractive investment for the big boys and we’ll start to close the gap to US peers. Buraj from RBCs comments still point to the message not completely landing for the medium term, which is a bit concerning.

However bp now guiding targets on $70 avg Brent price… which means they must see structurally higher oil price through to 2030, guidance was previously based at $60

Happy I free’d up some cash in the ISA, I’ll be back into shell if we see a drop to where it was last week

That comment made me laugh meoryou! haha

Agree - good points noted by Barclays. I think the whole investor days are to right-size bp's external perception of "forgetting" oil and gas, its still very much in the business and the business is being refined and high graded to ensure higher ROI - just as shell is reaching record highs - I believe bp could get some upside too in the short term due to conflating factors

In theory yes, there is nothing the UK govt can do to stop a private takeover... but imagine the narrative on a US O&G buying a former UK govt owned O&G player.... especially now when energy security is so hot on the agenda. The political pressure would be immense and Exxon would be buying into that.

I totally get it from a shareholder perspective, but from a business perspective and "how things get done" I just cannot see it

A $55bn buyout is a magnitude lower than a supermajor being acquired, bp currently sits at a $112bn market cap, offer would have to be 1.4-1.8x that I imagine so we're talking about a $150bn+ acquisition, 3x larger than Exxons deal.

Wishful thinking... before you get into the UK politics of it all