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Theaky,

No doubt BL has risked his job on the level of disruption - the headline is however the business will grow on an EBITDA basis to 2030 so SP-wise you either buy into his ability to deliver that or you don't.

Being profitable on an operating basis is a legit measure to use for high capital projects - the terms are used to give confidence to investors that early return's are being realised and will continue to do so until they generate the IRR return target.

Any company wouldnt report their full multi-year P&L for new growth areas for anti competitive reasons.

Ah my mistake !

Still £2k+ a quarter, pays for many treats through the year! Even sweeter when they come from passive income

Meoryou, I seem to remember you saying you held over 300k bp shares - may I ask what it feels like to have that sort of divi income hit 4x a year? I'm trying to get to a similar point asap to help me battle the sheer cost of london life

I anticipate they just give goldman a bunch of capital and sign a share purchase contract to be completed by x date - I imagine Goldman execute as/when they want to unless there are extenuating circumstances

I do think any kind of financial engineering just makes its worse as it'll get spun like we are still profiting from it. Best case is Putin green lights a sale of the stake to another party, the Russian gov (or proxy russian O&G) or perhaps an indian or China co. and the current divi's sitting there are negotiated as part of that deal. bp would have to go to UK Gov to green light this arrangement which would protect us from any media splashback... with it being election year shortly I can't forsee anything other than this being approved UK side.

Rosnefts an interesting one... BL's latest statement was during Q1 earnings I think - dividends continue to be paid in a russian bank account, held in rubles and bp are not able to touch it without Russian government approval. He didn't comment when asked about ongoing disposal efforts.

With the POO where it is god knows how many $ billions in divi's are in there now... its a toxic asset however and I cannot see anyway bp could possibly onshore it to the UK without a massive PR and slating in the houses of parliment (both commons and the other one that hires 29 year olds for life... you know the one)/press.

I've stated my view on the lack of pension increases on here before. All are on very decent final salary pensions w/ some getting paid tens, if not hundreds of thousands to retire in 2020. Most are also likely sitting on assets that have appreciated 20x over their employment lifetime (particularly in the SE of the UK) - if they are hard-up, its time to sell the 5 bed house they bought for £3.50 and downsize.

This is before considering the std bp employee increase this year was 2.5%, why should a retiree get a larger increase vs. existing employees?

BL's bonus is what it is, a result of the energy spike - not much to do with his LT strategy/vision - no chance of him ever deferring it to carry favour

I'm aware this post may annoy some ex bp employees, but this is the internet after all

Agree if oil prices continue to circle the 70-80 $ range for the next couple of quarters they'll have to increase the divi, as shell will likely too.

Otherwise its more buybacks and reduce gearing, not a bad thing as a LTH but cash is king, as they say

I take a week off work and bp SP increases 20p, please don't read too much into this.

I have however exercised the first of my share grant options today, from the lows of COVID prices which has made for a 100% gain - plan is to transfer them to S&S ISA and continue to take the divi's until we see high 5's again and then sell

Meoryou - the gf is running the oslo marathon in a few weeks time so I'll be visting in mid sept

Any restaurant or recc's on things to do?

I tend to use bp's own trading conditions update to judge the success of the quarter so far: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html

both oil and refining margins up, spreads declining which could limit some trading performance - looking good as we head into q3 close

enjoy your weekends all - im off next week!

In an attempt to educate myself on the trading side of things I'm half way through reading 'the world for sale' - great read as it charts the history of large trading houses and how and why they have so much power. https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Sale-Traders-Barter-Resources/dp/1847942652

Fun fact: when the soviet union collapsed they owed Pepsi-co a large sum - in which they paid in warships, this led to pepsi's CEO stating they were doing more to disarm russia than the US gov!

Wow >100k shares, I'd love to see your investment account haha!

I anticipate if there was a large deal on bp's renewables w/ Abu Dhabi it'll be surrounding upstream assets/power generation, not downstream charging points in a single market - that would require a spin-off of the EV business and the time to do this was 2 years ago, not now valuations are in the toilet.

I wouldnt say they have "seen through" it, its just they don't believe the in the integration value (and ultimately stronger margins) green electrons will bring in the future. It's a shrewd bet if its comes off and bp can trade or sell into their own network - who knows if this will be the case however.

I personally think by 20230 the energy demand growth will outpace any incremental renewable generation so we end up in a middle world where record oil demand is still being set in growth cycles and renewables top up the remaining demand.

It its pretty crazy when comparing the 1 yr SP chart vs. Brent chart - it completely disconnects as brent was around these levels when bp hit 540+. nat gas hit its high last September as well. I'm not sure what's going on but I can imagine the new around inflation and subsequent demand destruction through lack of economic growth is weighing on the sector as a whole.

Demonstrates how much of a muchness O&G results are in this market - unless we have a 1-2 month oil spike, you're better off making your buy/sell on the POO direction and not earnings.

Good news for us is oil is maintaining around $85 which will keep the saudi's happy and refining margins are on the up again, Q3 should be better than Q2 = likeliness of them exceeding their $4bn annual buyback target by Q3 ($3.25bn year to date)

Agree, I think bp is taking actions to build its own portfolio however … any big m&a will more than likely come from the US super majors… and be integrated horribly as their mgmt struggles to understand the biz case of renewables vs oil

Absolutely I do have other plays, nothing fancy just a few tech plays and ETFs, nothing groundbreaking.

I’m toying with building a small solar portfolio in my GIA (inc the likes of GE) as the leading global players are getting significant financial backing as economics become more favourable. It’s a growth industry that will only increase going forward so makes sense to bet on the largest 4/5 players and benefit from future consolidation. Other than that I truly believe the incumbents won’t be beaten due to their low cost of capital. I actually think we’ll see a mega merger between an oil co and a renewables major (e.g. Orsted) if high oil prices continue, allowing players to continue lowering debt and then being able to leverage their valuations for stronger m&a plays. There’ll be a pricing advantage to sourcing green electrons soon enough as legislation shifts (actual green, not mass balanced) which will make the integration benefits stronger (BP’s strategy as per their investor presentations and recent earnings

All my own views of course

Two reasons I plan to build my position in shell not bp - both personal to me, but enhanced by Shells new CEO talk of focusing on shareholder value -

1) I work for bp and have c: £75k in shares waiting to vest over the next 2/3 years - a mixture of SAYE schemes and RSU's, so I'm already highly exposed to bp's success/failures.

2) I invest in both bp and shell in my SIPP today - however I'll transfer this holding over to Shell before Q3 ends. I don't hold any O&G in GIA or S&S ISA as this is reserved for high growth plays, not income.

POO seems robust, I'm looking for an entry point into shell as I am incredibly bullish on their valuation over the next 12-18months. I think their scale wins out vs bp, their position as leading EU gas player and how focused their CEO and CFO are on stakeholder value I see more gains to be made there from a share perspective.