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The pension uplift challenge makes me laugh - why should retirees get more of an uplift than current employees? They want to earn more money for no longer working? Madness

As below Many of these employees received huge payouts to leave in 2020 and are sitting on final salary pensions the likes of which will never be seen again. I get the company should keep its word but there has to be a realisation of just how good of a position they are in compared to other retired people or the majority of the workforce today.

Cry me a river

Yep aware we are close partners - exploration's post hints at a stronger equity based play however

Interesting - by 'big deal' what are you thinking? a middle east focused Renewables JV? Equity sales to Abu Dhabi govt? Bp buy into to ADNOC?

Truth is, short of a massive improvement in EU/UK inflation figs or a hike in divi [mentioned by shell] I cant forsee a catalyst

This is why: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Media-Error-Triggers-Significant-Oil-Price-Spike.html

If you've ever wondered if media headlines and jawboning really influence oil prices, you can now put the question to rest. A mistake in publishing sent oil prices up sharply on Monday morning—but prices have since bounced back to normal levels now that the offending media piece has been removed and a retraction printed.

The Reuters headline wasn't exactly incorrect. "Saudi Arabia's Energy Department will voluntarily extend production cuts until the end of 2024." But we knew that. This is old news that dates back to June 4, when Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its additional voluntary oil cut until the year's end.

But even just rehashing the old news today like it was some new event sent Brent and WTI up by 2%, with Brent reaching above the important $80 threshold. But that was then. Within the span of less than an hour, crude oil prices returned to earth, and are now trading at a loss for the day.

Thanks for sharing - funny it says they were very cheap as when we first bought the rights in the UK we were deemed to have overpaid.

No doubt the DCF impact made this more interesting - however on balance $650m is a risk worth taking for bp giving our strength in Germany and its proximity to bp assets.

Meoryou,

ooft retiring on 42 on a full pension sounds like you timed things perfectly!

Current employee here - been in the biz for nearly 4 years now (ex-auto OEM before that). I've got 12 years before I hit 42 so we're at different bp experience levels shareholding wise. mgmt seems extremely confident we're heading in the right direction I think it'll take 3-4 years for the SP to fully reflect our strategy however

Ahh you're a previous bp employee, are you ex-bp or now retired-bp?

BP said the move was fully aligned with its integrated energy strategy and disciplined capital allocation, adding it expected returns from the project of between 6% and 8%.

"between 6-8%" doesn't fill me with confidence, shows how low the margins are for renewables - the hope is bp can derive more value when combining with existing assets (e.g. trading) boosting the attractiveness of the plays here.

Oil market turned bullish so big boys going long on O&G now - sentiment has turned... a day after I said I couldnt see any catalysts before EOY hahaha!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Currie-Oils-Rally-Is-Unloved.html

The OPEC+ production cuts are beginning to impact oil prices, Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie told CNBC on Tuesday.

"What we've been waiting for for six months is finally beginning to play out," Currie said when asked if we're starting to see the beginnings of the bull case for oil.

"Inventories in oil are drawing, Chinese demand is back to 15.9 million barrels per day, time spreads are tightening—all indications of a bull structure," Currie said on Tuesday.

Agree but as you know sentiment drives markets, as long as there's economic doom and gloom we'll be suppressed here. Fingers cross it turns positive into Q3 - what needs to happen for this?

1. UK inflation starts decreasing / US continues to decrease

2. China economy stops flashing red and growth shoots occur

3. Saudi's continue with their cuts to maintain $75 POO

Until then (and I anticipate EOY) I cannot see a catalyst for the SP so presume we'll drift downwards supported by $4bn of buybacks as per guidance

I'm liking the vibe from Shell's new CEO - he understands their biz model will change but the change will happen over years/decades therefore is not rushing into anything and is even producing more - I may start to switch some of the personal bp holding over to Shell as he seems more focused on investor return

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66108553?dm_i=53XH,TDHC,2JIQBV,3H6NC,1

Thanks Charlie156, good analysis. I've tried to do some research on the following but not really found anything insightful. The logic of buybacks to reduce sharecount and increase the overall value of each remaining share is clear, however in practice its so hard to tell the timeline in which this benefit phases in to the overall SP - anyone have any thoughts on this? is it a year? two years?

I personally think they only work when large scale buybacks are implemented (as bp is doing), otherwise the purchases get lost in the macro impact - buying back c: 1/5th of the company since 2021 should protect LT holders against this

I'll take £4.64! - cant see much movement between here and xmas but happy to be proved wrong!

I'm with starling and they usually take 3-4 days post payment date to show up in my account - havent had any in HL either yet

Sensible reply - I suppose if buybacks are preferred by the board to help them play the long game, any short-term (1-2 year) SP pressure is palatable for them. However buybacks are the net result of the underlying operating business performing well, if this is happening and SP isnt moving or decreasing then they have to look at their overall investor proposition (essentially the financial frame laid out) and assess if its still compelling vs. the macro environment

Can I get peoples thoughts on the relationship between divi yield and base rate? It's now more attractive to put money in a savings acc vs. the divi yield available on bp/shell. Do you think this is taken into consideration when setting dividend? if not surely this creates downwards pressure on income stocks as the only upside is limited capital appreciation in a potential recession cycle?

Thinking of re-orientating my portfolio away from O&G for the short term

As someone who gets why the financial frame approach we take is required, I do think it only stands up as long as shareholder returns are on par with competitors, if Shell move on divi's we have to move in my opinion so I can anticipate discussions are being had now re: buybacks and use of future capital ahead of Q2 earnings

Good discussion over the below points - This and shell only moves because big boys place big buys - with no direct oil catalyst on the horizon many are seeing gains elsewhere (e.g. tech). Divi is no longer attractive vs. interest rates (in the UK/EU) so I'm surprised the SP hasn't fell further. The potential strength of balance sheet mentioned below is one reason for this. You do however wonder what happens going into northern hemisphere Winter, I'm still more bull than bear over this as the West seeks to limit Russian barrels and xNG on its shores.

Personally I think the news out of China re: slow recovery is the big downward pressure on O&G at the moment but I'm the CPC has some creative accounting to change the narrative shortly.

As q2 closes out it seems we wont surpass Q1 results maybe this is why SP is stagnant - https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html

refining cost is down, spreads largely neutral as is core commodity price - lets hope trading pulls it out the bag!