Member Info for WeirdPal

Honestly, bp employee here and even I couldnt forsee us hiking the divi, even though the hike is small it sends a good message to investors for the rest of the year, continued upward pressure likely imo with the buybacks and as we head into winter, was tempted to sell my very small private holding but I'll hold and keep dipping back it around 370p.

... seems to be a bit of a hit job on Mr. Looney. Attempting to paint him in a negative light, but hey its a free to read article so of course its negative. It's an easy position to take when oil is $100+ but fast forward 12 months when supply and demand is more balanced the winds will change again, just how he was praised 6 months ago when oil was stuck at $60. Investors getting fidgety over a business spending dollars diversifying over paying them is nothing new. The only concern from this article was the price paid for the wind auction, I'll need a fact check on prices paid (is this publicy accessible?). Could be a costly mistake...

You too! I'm sure I'll see you around these boards ;)

Interesting to hear, I'm too young to remember perceptions of bp and its culture prior to 2015 other than GOM. Although we are focused on the SP on this board I have to say the exec leadership and safety & commercial focused culture now are super impressive and perhaps more materially for the long-term SP we are starting to build real depth of talent at the SVP and VP level across the company with multiple notable external hires - (see last investor pres).

meoryou, good to see a fellow bp employee on the board - I joined the company 3 years ago right before COVID & subsquent SP decrease after divi reduction. Means I should hit £1.50 per share profit in share save (at current levels) when it vests next year and the share match scheme is looking healthy as I've only contributed through record lows, of course as you say this cant be touched for 5 years from award date due to mr taxman - we'll be a very different company in the second half of the 20s. I've heard horror stories from fellow employees about being stuck in the £5-£6 range, obviously its not a total loss but must be a kick in the teeth in lost profits largely due to the boards unwillingness to raise divi's...

With shell not increasing their dividend by any material amount off the back of record results there's no chance bp will. hopefully the upwards pressure of these buybacks and increased energy prices through winter supports the SP back upto 420+

amazing how this board moves with the daily sentiment of the market - a lot of calls for divi increases but I can't see it imo, special divi payment would be nice but wouldn't do anything to hike the SP sustainably so me thinks it'll be normal buybacks as set out in their financial frame. I see £4 within the next week as oil supplies and nat. gas. continue to tighten
=====
Short sellers are closing out short positions against oil-focused exchange traded funds, while money managers have modestly increased their holdings of crude oil futures over the latest reporting week. These trades suggest that speculators, traders, and hedge fund managers may have started to believe that the 20% crash in oil prices since the middle of June could be over, and prices are set to go higher from here. The largest U.S. oil stock-focused ETF, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE), has seen traders reduce short interest by 14% in the past month, data from market analytics company S3 Partners cited by Bloomberg shows.

It depends on the level of buyback, If bp buyback billions in stock per quarter as they have been doing then it quickly has a material impact on SP as the market cap is relatively low $70-$75bn? they could easily buy 5-8% of this this year alone. investors don't like it as its indirect vs. Divi, but actually does more to protect shareholders capital growth in the long term than any divi/special divi does.

bp publishes its avg. prices weekly, not hard to see how good Q2 will be and Q3 starting strong too. @Jakes its a 4% uplift in divi assuming $60 oil, however shell was the same and they have just revised this to $65

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/analyst-information/trading-conditions-update.html

I'm preaching to no-one, merely pointing out your position is based entirely on your generation and ignores the reality of the following generations. I'm at the end of millennials and fully know our generation is f**ked, ive only managed it via a lot of sacrifice. God help Gen Z establish themselves financially if mummy and daddy cannot help.

I think you're forgetting about the equity you've built up in that time, you've literally lived through record house price increases which more than offsets any interest payments.

It was easy for you to get on to the ladder due to low house prices
You had access to in some cases 100%+ mortgages
You built up record amounts of equity due to the "cheap cash"
You had low student loans not weighing you down
And now you're moaning that all the money you've saved because you're mortgage was cheap wont earn enough interest? the internet is comical - I was born in 93 so have faced all of this , its took me earning six figures to buy a decent place (albeit in london), but yeah you're right you deserve more ;)

yeah raise the rates to 5% then watch the housing market buckle - nice logic pal.

Right short term demand may be declining but even in that backdrop we still have $95 as of today. The oil drop today is actually due to base rate hikes more than anything IMO, the market will settle once this is confirmed. See this from Shell CEO in todays FT article:

Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden has warned that Europe may need to ration access to energy this winter, as he predicted “significantly” higher prices if Russia continues to choke the supply of gas into the EU.

“I think we will be facing a really tough winter in Europe,” van Beurden told an energy conference in Oxford on Thursday.

“Maybe some countries will fare better than others, but I think we will all be facing very significantly escalating pricing, so there will be a lot of pressure on industry and therefore there will be a lot of pressure on the economy,” he added. “In the worst case, we will be in a situation where we have to ration.”

Here come the chartists ;)

If demand destruction is occurring in the US why is Biden flying out this week? Everyone knows what’s coming as soon as we hit sept/October so stock up, sit tight and have yourself a nice Christmas

Thanks for sharing, this is an interesting para:

"Collateral damage of growing fears of inflation is the strong dollar, which is also bearish for oil prices. Interestingly, physical markets are still strong but the change in sentiment of financial investors is currently the dominant driving force."

Physical markets (fundamentals) still strong meaning demand is outstripping supply, with so much bearish pressure around why is joey Biden flying out to Saudi to pressure them to pump more? SP not connected to reality at these levels

As much bp/shell as I can handle in prep for the winter months - the energy markets are fearful so time to be greedy and just collect the divi's

meoryou, full agree - the amount of buybacks being performed are material at the current valuation, those still holding in 12-18months will be rewarded, just as those who have held for 12-18 months through covid where rewarded with SP nearing 450p earlier in the year

As soon as the POO takes a drop this board becomes a funeral home for bp stock. The oil price is still $100, bp are about to announce what everyone expects to be insane results giving their trading conditions update, putin & co are driving up energy costs which will get worse as we head into winter, yeah I get the talks of recession but until I see it in US growth figures I wouldn’t worry. Stable divi even if 99% of you are stuck in the past. OPEC still hiking fuel prices. Sell if you want I’ll collect them at anything under 365

hahaha have you never heard of dividend yield?????

Because this is an income stock loved for stability and strong dividend, that's the investor value proposition. This stock is attractive to those who want these kind of investments. With a 50% dividend cut it becomes less attractive, less demand for SP = lower SP. Why would an investor now put a £1 and get 4.xp back when historically they could put £1 in and get 8.xp back?

and again I'll repeat my comment from yesterday... Govt's have just spent months printing records amount of cash and all of a sudden there's a liquidity crunch? I don't pretend to be an economics expert but that cash is still floating about the economy. the S&P500 is coming back down to where it should be in a 2 years post covid. I mean I'm happy to buy at value so pls continue thinking this if it fits your mindset! As for bp, I saw a few comments around old SP.. remember the divi got cut in half so forget £5/£6 targets.. the company would now effectively have to increase RCOP by 60-90% for this SP.