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I think we're seeing confusion in the energy markets, bull vs. bear near even hence no real change in SP over the last week or so

I'd counter your point - it isn't an admission. bp guide a capital expenditure range per annum, if they were to go too much above this then they open themselves up for poor planning or overspending critique which would have a detrimental impact on SP.

The oil cut to maintain current pricing still makes me more bullish than bearish to be honest. The Saudi's aren't stupid with the amount of money at play. If anything they've shown they'll protect margins and not bow to US pressure. Combine this with continued buybacks that should continue into Q3 and we have margin protection, reduced share count and reduced oil supply heading into EU winter.

+'ve news on China opening up is the cherry on top - although its been a rocky road. Bull case is clearer than the bear case for me at the moment

By my calcs from the figures on bp's website, $17.25bn has been spent on buybacks 2021-2023 - 21% of our current market cap. You do have to wonder how many more need to be bought for the SP to rocket upwards?

The positive however is like you say, the shares are being bought at a discount but it may take a while to flow through to fundamentals, e.g. a strong EPS (vs. historical) when POO eventually drops sub $60

I'd love to see a healthy divi boost as it'll rocket the SP - however the strict financial frame that has been set out has held steadfast, even through record oil prices. Me thinks the board is being more disciplined in allocating cash which is why the SP is lagging. It'll be interesting to see what they do when debt levels drop to c: $10-15bn as this is when the reigns can be a little looser on capital allocation imo

Well done to everyone who topped up c: 450p, no brainer giving the Saudi's requirement to sustain high oil prices. Amazing that one nation has such power in global energy - but there you go

Placed a £7k order at 452 - nice SIPP addition

For a further drop on US open then I'll jump in, easy 10-15% to be made come winter + 2/3 divi payments

What's your 3 year price target? and your brief logic behind this thinking?

I think the doubling of global convenience GM in just 280 locations says all you need to know about how the business is running and the sheer scale of the opportunity, think if they (we) keep growing the network through to 2030 how large that could be!

As an employee I think its a great play in the worlds largest road transport market. Serious investment has gone into the US business over the past two years so we must see it as underpinning the future of both legacy upstream and downstream ops.

Thoughts?

Adds a network of around 280 travel centers, strategically located on major highways across US; complementing bp’s US convenience and mobility business.

Almost doubles bp’s global convenience gross margin.

Brings growth opportunities for four of bp’s five transition growth engines including EV charging via bp pulse, convenience, biofuels/renewable natural gas (RNG) and, later, hydrogen.

Adds EBITDA immediately, expected to grow to around $800m by 2025, underpinned by investment, integration value and synergies.

Taken from bloomberg article

This is a risky move imo, yes the homecharge market is competitive and I estimate loss making as its nothing more than a digital plug at the end of the day, strategically however its a hook into your customer we have just lost in our biggest EV market - I wonder what position we'll take in other markets

A beauty from his bbc breakfast interview:

"These are profits they didn't expect to make" - well F*** me sideways, Keir, on this logic is labours position to ask all FTSE co's to submit profit guidance at the start of the year and use this as a yardstick for their taxation? The man is an utter blanket - I'm seriously concerned for the already weakened FTSE should labour get in.

Think Barclays was more critical of the structure of the buyback conditions being based on surplus cashflow thus impacted by operating effects, not the lack of clarity. IB'ers want to reduce SP volatility of an income stock - shock :D

5% drop is interesting - still generating healthy cash and language on the call is they are positive about forward POO through 23

and a 5% fall, make it make sense lmao.. ahh well time to top up

Thought the question re: pensions was a bit "woe is me" and missing the point as they are on defined benefit schemes, they are upset in retirement they aren't getting richer? well **** me! They got 5% raise which is more than many working level ages are getting (you know the ones who are funding the nhs through the highest tax burden in years at the same time)

Rough start to the AGM

Are you guys on a sweet sweet defined benefit pension?

...
If so stop moaning hahaha

You guys are complaining about bp having to pull out of Russia and take a financial hit. We're talking about an entire country here, millions of people displaced, thousands innocent dead and you're concerned about your tiny stock portfolio? Get real guys.