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Would represent a 34% premium!

But it depends on what the board thinks our fair value is. With the level of buybacks you have to think it’s much much higher than where we are now

BREAKING: Iranian official says the country will launch a 'definitive and painful' response to Israeli strike, likely before US presidential election. - The spectator index

Posturing or not. The western media narrative around Iran not retaliating is dangerous. We’ve seen Blinken try to move the media narrative before Israel’s previous attack.

Pray for calm but it seems like the tit for tat warfare is set to continue

Everyone topping up before US open is either clever or crazy.... I can never tell

Earnings are moslty a non-event, I read between the lines here:

1. oil production is up to 2.4mboed

2. Video shows growth through the decade as it displays an oil rig

3. Buybacks will slow in next year - its already baked in, more external pressure on using debt to cover these

4. Have already identified cost savings at double the target

and the big one...

Strategy day next year is in NYC - Hitting Wall St. straight in the chops with a pump pump pump message I guess.

Lets see how analyst Q&A goes.

Agree - however all should be reminded that the avg. inflation adjusted brent price over last 50 years is $54. So still good level of profits at this level, just not to what we've seen post Russia invasion.

I don't understand why they came out and said $7bn of buybacks per year over the next 2 years, seems like you're making a rod for your own back but what do I know, maybe thats why I'm not C-suite.

Seems it’s just the oil shorts backing out of their hedges

Hopefully US open impact is limited and results surprise to the upside tomorrow

Sadly I don’t think it’ll be the end. This is tit-for-tat warfare. The longer Isreal continue to bomb Gaza and Lebanon the more the forces in the region will look to Iran for a sign of strength. They’ve already come out and said any attack will be retaliated against.

What a sorry world we live in.

Auson, do keyboards count in that definition? :D

Auson, increase in net longs must be the story of events in the middle east playing out over the last month. Everyone knows Israel will respond, its just whether or not they attack oil/nuclear.

They came out and said they aren’t attempting to get a triple A rating, something to do with the flexibility required for trading. My smol brain tells me it’s something to do with greater liquidity enabling them to more effectively hedge.

Raider, I and most of the people on this board agree which is why everyone is so bullish at this SP.

bp market cap is $83bn/£64bn but your argument still stands.

Claire, welcome to the board, been enjoying reading your posts. I dont understand technical analysis but see its merits in certain situations, particuarly in less volatile income equities.

Save for any world event impacting POO either way, any major movement is irrelevant before next strategy day. All the press stories over the last week have to have some merit to them as theres no smoke without fire. Nothing (Apart from that world event) will impact our share price more than a bullish view on O&G production so the analysts can add back in the 300k barrels per year into our production line and let the figures speak for themselves on the topline view. It adds bns to our valuation overnight, before you talk about any reduction in renewable capex.

Havent seen this posted but it seems Unilever has offloadeds its russia business - maybe we now start to see a slew of exits with some proceeds coming back to the west: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/moscow-approves-unilever-deal-offload-russian-assets-rbc-cites-sources-2024-09-04/

The Kremlin demands a discount of at least 50% on exit deals involving firms from what it calls "unfriendly" countries, those that have imposed sanctions against Russia.

Not sure how accurate this source is, but bring on February should this be true

https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/bp-drops-oil-output-target-in-strategy-reset-sources-say-53939873

Thanks Spights! I am enjoying my time here a lot! It’s so different to London!

Not sure if my previous comment posted.

Enjoying my annual leave and on the Shinkansen when I get a message from a friend saying bp has tanked

Took me about 5 mins of thinking before I added. Obviously driven by a mix of shorts and oil price pressure.

Let’s have a bit of civility on the board, it’s only a share ladies and gents

Happy, - might be one of those things where the slow climb back happens on a random day as funds start to buy, I think we'll drift sideways until we see the 12m brent curve improve however.

Cant see any more flavour on renewables being given until next investor day to be honest. They normally back away from strategy questions at earnings.

BP to sell US onshore wind business

BP has put its onshore wind business in the US up for sale, offering up ten wind farms across seven states that may be worth upwards of $2bn.

BP Wind Energy’s wind farms are all operating with customers and connected to the grid, BP said, with a total combined capacity of 1.3GW. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets estimated that the business is worth roughly $2bn.

BP said it wanted to focus on Lightsource BP, its solar power business, as the main platform for its US renewables business.

“This planned divestment is part of our strategy of continuing to simplify our portfolio and focus on value,” said William Lin, head of BP’s gas and low carbon energy unit.

I think the play here isn’t waiting for bp to go back to pure oil and gas, it’s for the board to realise the errors in our strategy and pull back on the high cap ex commitments when the market isn’t ready and remove the no growth in production levels.

If this happens the sentiment could swing as it has done for shell, who largely have promised the same as us but haven’t been as vocal - this plus their v good balance sheet is the difference at the moment

Still at £4 as IEA is forecasting a surplus in 2025. Stock will drift sideways and down for 6-9months now imo if we don’t see any sort of catalyst for the oil price.