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Nice analysis getafgrip! Thanks for the post

Hi all - little less active these days as nothing much going on with the share price

Middle east is heating up and POO reacting accordingly- US involved in Syria and has come out with statement against asaad - makes you think who is supporting the rebels. It also seems the Israel - Hezbollah ceasefire isnt holding after rocket attacks by both sides over the last 24 hours. When will the world learn.

Crude oil API Inventory Moves 11/26

Crude -5.935 million (exp +250,000)

Gasoline +1.814 million

Distillates +2.543 million

Cushing -734,000

SPR +1.2 million

I'LL TAK£ £V£RY P£NNY

I typed this into chatgpt: type the script donald trump would use on his phone call with putin to end the war in ukraine

and got this reponse:

Trump:

"Vladimir, my friend, how are you? I hope you're doing well. Listen, I've been watching what's going on in Ukraine. It’s a tough situation, tough for everyone. You know, I always say, no one does tough like me, right? But this, it’s a mess—bad for Russia, bad for Ukraine, bad for the whole world, really.

Look, you and I both know that wars don’t end well for anyone. People are hurting, economies are hurting, and it’s not good for your legacy. You’ve done great things for Russia—huge things. But this, Vladimir, this isn’t the legacy you want.

Here’s the deal. I know you’re a man who knows how to get a deal done. Let’s talk about a real solution. Security guarantees, maybe some kind of neutral status for Ukraine—something fair, something both sides can live with. And listen, I’m willing to help broker it. You know I’m the best at making deals—everyone says that, and they’re right.

If we can bring this to an end, you’ll go down in history as a peacemaker, not just a strong leader. That’s big. That’s huge. So what do you say? Let’s figure this out and make it happen. The world’s watching, Vladimir, and we can make it great. Let’s do it."

Jakers, Spights,

Nothing but rain in West London - rumours of snow in east

VW can’t even get their act together for EVs which has an established supply chain - they won’t pivot to h2 anytime soon.

Toyota is on their own with H2 passenger vehicles and shell is pulling back on their h2 aspiration's.

H2 may come through for HGVs, but the infra and powertrain development will take another 10-15 years at least

Wouldnt trust car dealers they have no insight into cycle plans, let alone the automotive value chain. They are one of many distribution channels for the OEM and interested in month-end sales only... anything to unlock those juicy OEM bonuses.

Meoryou, I looked at this in my former co (auto OEM) - back then the average age of used vehicles was 11.1 years IIRC and it was increasing as more reliable engines. So even after the last ICE gets sold in EU, we'll have 12-13 years of strong demand left. Although I doubt we'll ever get to 100% EV in my lifetime (currently 31) - simply too many use cases require instant fueling or weight considerations - emergency response vehicles, light commercial vehicles etc.

Germany’s Scholz phones Russia’s Putin

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in nearly two years, a German government spokesman confirmed.

Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said Scholz “condemned the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and called on President Putin to end it and withdraw his troops”.

Of course nothing to do with the current gas price situation - come on we're not dumb

Added a tiny holding (£2k or so) yesterday as couldnt believe it was in the 3.60s in a $70/$75 oil price environment- the only time I've jumped in the last 3 months and it hasnt dropped >3% the next day. typical.

As much as we’d all like to think about a takeover, I think in the current political landscape of nationalism and energy security there is no way the UK govt would rubber stamp it.

People have stated on here before they don’t think the uk govt can stand in the way, but I disagree. Every major M&A deal gets looked at and there’s energy security grounds as to why the UK gov can block any potential takeover of a UK listed company. There’s political value in having one of the world’s largest oil majors down the road from Westminster. Although if the board chose to delist and list in ‘murica to get it through, all bets are off.

How are you getting a P/E of 28 for bp??

Check your data source

“The question purposely ignores impact to the balance sheet, but it does make you think.”

With $8.5bn of FCF YTD 2024 - any purchaser of BP would use their net debt position as a bargaining tool only - everyone knows it’s not a fundamental issue but the equity analysts don’t like it as the interest expense impacts quarterly financials -

Thanks for the comments all - fascinating to read.

Here's one to ponder over the weekend -

Exxon market cap = £410bn (yes in GBP for ease)

bp market cap = £60bn

bp market cap + 20% premium = £72bn

72/410 = 17.5%

Would exxon shareholders add a bp (2.3m barrels per year) for 17.5% dilution in their shares?

The question purposely ignores impact to the balance sheet, but it does make you think.

Have a good weekend all.

I think the develop and flip model works for a few reasons (as is similar in OG projects). As someone with no experience of this but putting my commercial hat on:

- recoups some capital to reinject back in the business

- there’s a plethora of funds out there that seek stable returns portfolio and are willing to pay to access this for their shareholders

- retains some access to a productive asset that supports trading or supply activities

Or to put it another way, funds don’t want to buy a field, but a field with solar in, spitting off reliable cash flow? Then they’ll buy the field (so to speak)

I don't pretend to understand it - but US O&G production is already at full steam so I don't see how trump presidency "opens the taps" further. A restriction on new green policies which invites more O&G production, but this industry runs in decades, not presidential 4 year increments.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-plans-sell-all-its-dutch-petrol-stations-2024-11-05/

Thanks meoryou - rather boringly I'm offsetting the tax by loading them into my SIPP - yawnfest I know but future me will thank presentme.

I'll use the tax rebate for something enjoyable however

Not sure where the £25k each figure comes from. It’s not quite as much as that unless the senior levels are getting ridiculously oversized bonuses