Member Info for Velo

ETC is correct ( C = commodity ) although it's plainly an ETF.

XRH0 (db Physical Rhodium)

[They store it in bottles].

Just closed at over 1100's+
Steadily down from 2600 of ATH in May of this year.

Not all brokers deal in it. HL cite their reason given as:
" Lack of Key Investor Information Document "

There’s nothing in tonight’s close that suggests anything other than the SP deep in the grip of a bearish down trend. Despite wider market issues, I don’t think it’ll last.

There’s been 2 peaks in the SP and currently it’s in the grip of a 3rd trough - since late August.

So, to complete it all, unless there is a break up of all that, one would be forgiven for expecting the next (albeit temporary) 3rd peak.

The troughs, the lows over the last few months, have been tightly packed (very) in that each of them dropped no further than the 80’s-ish.
Each low trough has persevered much longer than the previous trough. So although I think the end of this week is long enough, it would only match the duration of the previous trough, so maybe it stays in the 80’s for awhile longer?

Personally, I’m favouring the next 3rd peak to make an effort soon, and as the peaks have been quite stretchy in their height expansion, I’m initially thinking, pro-rata that circa the 117’s as the next peak.

If not, there’s the possibility, the SP doesn’t break out past 110, and only gets as far as the mid 90’s.

In fact, if there’s no 3rd price peak, and this tightly packed floor area falls apart and breaks down with no peak, I'm thinking no worse than v high 70’s and at worst low 70’s.

However, although possible, I don’t think that’s probable as there’s mere weeks to the close of H1 and PGM prices achieved this trading year, have ALL been higher than those achieved last year. That’s at gross level.

And as has been pointed out, there’s the production of actual ounces likely to be worse than last year’s H1 and analysts prefer to book revenue once the customer takes ownership of shipments thus even lower bookable revenue (and documented quality of feed issues) thus expectations are of much lower net profits.

Only question affecting price is if SLP will be in-line with market guidance or not.

So all-in-all, not expecting a serious downturn to the SP this side of Christmas. If there is; then v high 70’s at worst.

First up, I’d like to see if a 3rd peak evolves or not.

If it maintains the pattern then I’m bullishly looking for circa 117’s.

But if it all dissolves for the worse from here on, over the coming days and weeks but still a half-hearted 3rd peak, then perhaps a weak mid 90’s?

I prefer to wait until the average trends show their hand – after events; and they to a man are all singing from the same hymn sheet – all of them are currently bearish!

The only bullish thing for bulls and optimists to look out for, is the appearance (or not) of that 3rd peak. I think there will be one. Hopefully days to a week away.

I did initially say I wanted to include the SP for consideration in this recent run of posts.

I regard SP's as pure sentiment driven, and as much as these recent posts have been mostly of a bullish nature the current SP performance leaves me somewhat adrift.

And although I've received confirmation from at least one  other poster that they also see higher lows and higher highs in these current peaks and troughs, that formed as far back as August, on closer examination I am being met with increasing concerns as regards that formation.

It's possible that things change in the coming days/weeks, but would need to see a bullish breakout from here, pronto. Not a breakout to a full recovery yet, but simply a move away from this current floor.

(Part 2 Concludes )

. . . As this year ending June 2022 is forecast to be worse than last year, I've deliberately omitted to show 2021's fantastic performance and directly place the analysts forecasts as if it was the next year in line above to see how bad it looks by comparison, because it's going to be a stinker, right?

We know it's going to be poor when compared to last year so will look pretty tame next to the last in line of the years above, yes?

Well here it is placed in line with the last couple of years and see how it stacks up, should SLP come in, in line with market guidance -

 
 . . . $m       2019 . . 2020 . . (2022 analyst forecasts)
Revenue = 70.5 . . .115.0 . . .192.0
Net Profit=18.2 . . . 41.0 . . . . .75.0

Some poor performance when the market expectations, if achieved by SLP, are on their way to almost double that of year ending 2020!

Before you think that's too optimistic for 2022, now look at the results with 2021 inserted and  -

 
 . . . $m       2020 . . . 2021 . . (2022 analyst forecasts)
Revenue = 115.0 . .206.0. . .  .192.0
Net Profit= . 41.0 . . .99.8 . . . . 75.0

Put in perspective, it shows even at these reduced PGM prices SLP will still remain a healthy business throughout this chip crisis.
Revenue hardly impacted at all. But Net Profit decimated in comparison to last year's only.

For 2023 the analysts have SLP increasing revenue slightly to $207m
- but show Net Profit still under pressure with a further reduction, but only a slight drop of $3m to $72m

All-in-all, it puts future performance in a reasonable perspective, showing SLP producing healthy returns at these PGM price levels.

- but first up will be the immenent H1 results and how that impacts events.

(Part 1.
Part two follows  after this, and then I'm done)

Will now finish off this run of posts with a peek at some financials but before that, a summary of the metals lest urban mythology cement misplaced opinions:

1)
Prices of PGM's have been dropping semingly non-stop ever since this summer, yes true.

2)
 - but surprisingly, despite that, lower as they are currently this year, prices are still HIGHER than all those achieved in the first H1 half year, for last year!

3)
H2 for this trading year however (next Jan to June) is where last year's prices are far, far, higher than this year's expected H2, and will impact the full 12 months adversely.

However H1 is yet to be reported so deal with that first, in late January, as a better than forecast H1 could affect market sentiment.

This trading year will most likely be down on all headings so let's take a peek at what to expect. First a recce of previous year's top and bottom lines:

 . . . $m       2012 . . 2013 . . 2014 . . 2015 . . 2016 . . 2017
Revenue = 40.1 . . . 40.0 . . .47.2 . . .47.8 . . .39.5 . . .50.5
Net Profit= -3.97 . .4.37 . . -5.11 . . . .1.70. . . 3.73 . . . 8.87

 . . . $m       2018 . . 2019 . . 2020
Revenue = 62.8 . . . 70.5 . . .115.0
Net Profit= 11.0 . . . 18.2 . . . 41.0

Analysts have issued market guidance on what to expect for this full year,  and surprisingly the revenue and net profit they forecast for SLP this year, compared to historic progress above, look more than reasonable.

- But compared to last year ending June 2021, they will look poor.
Woe betide any company that comes in, under their market forecasts.

Look at the progression of the trading years above and see if you can identify the year, that I read in the media that "SLP dissapoints by delivering below market expectations".

I highlighted that review in a post on here, after one of the annual results above, as the SP fell straight after the results (SLP always falls after annual results anyway).

 Can you guess from the above, which year the analysts were dissapointed with?

It was the last one above, the year ending June 2020!

- And I still can't see anything wrong with it, and given time, as the years pass, neither will any future analysts as the analyst post-results reviews/opinions will have become irrelevant.

The first thing you'll notice is that the yearly increases look most commendable, once the early years after SLP  launched on the stockmarket are put behind it.

As this year ending June 2022 is forecast to be worse than last year, I've deliberately omitted to show 2021's fantastic performance and directly place the analysts forecasts as if it was the next year in line above to see how bad it looks, because it's going to be a stinker, right?
We know it's going to be poor when compared to last year so will look pretty tame next to the last in line of the years above, yes?

Continues > > >

It's going to be unimaginable for this trading year to finish level with last year The only question is by how much lower will an acceptable revenue and the bottom line net profit, be to the market?

And that means: lower than the market's lowered expectations - or better than the lowered expectations? But of course if better than expectations that's still less than the full year achieved last year.

Here's the size of it, first from the metals point of view then from the analyst's forecast revenue/net profit figures available.

Rhodium Q3 average last year = $23,450
Q4 last year = $25,781
Full H2 last year = $24,596

- In otherwords, only back to full Chip production could give any chance of even thinking about the mid $20,000's so the only observation in watching Rhodium is for, by how far short of that $25,596 average will this trading year's H2 prices fall short?

Platinum Q3 average last year = $1,169
Q4 last year = $1,190
Full H2 last year = $1,179

- Not a big problem; unconcerned when you have a comparison to Rh.

Paladium Q3 average last year = $2,424
Q4 last year = $2,807
Full H2 last year = $2,612

- Will fall short certainly, but these two metals are not in the same league of a problem as Rh is.

Summary:
H2 expected performance should be baked-in to forecasts so technically unlucky if the SP behaves as if H2 comes as surprise, no reason to expect worse than this 80p's floor area, but must admit, current trends don't support that view.

Will look to bring up the financial forecasts next to finish off (and results achieved in prior years) when time, as still some extremley nice acceptable £££'s forecast by analysts, which beats the pants-off all prior years and then some, bar last year alone, despite the chip issue, monies forecast when looked at in comparison to the past 5 years look like Guinness book of records stuff, startlingly good, and v acceptable!

- It' s just that the market will compare to last year's biggest ever record performance to make judgements. Take last year's out of the picture, and this year likely still to be jaw-droppingly good when looked at in isolation. Will show those figures another day v soon, as out of time tonight.

Well I have the figures I want for the base price averages per metal only, devoid of any amelioration or filters of extenuating credits/debits transfers etc.,

Artrader - well done in putting in some effort in your initial post. I too have used Johnson Mathey's data. Hope you can do another review after the Q2 results are published in late January.

However, my data on initially, the whole current H1 period (that's barely more than 3 weeks+days away from concluding) is less bearish than yours and I'm more in agreement with Nutmegmilk's in that I find the whole of this year's metals performance to date (to Dec 2nd) does in fact contain higher metals prices (figures for the 3 main categories: Rhodium, Platinum & Paladium) than those achieved for H1 up to 2nd Dec last year (See below).

In addition, comparing the prices achieved to date against the full H1 data for last year and pre-supposing no more increases for this year, still leaves this year's base prices achieved to date, higher than the whole of last year's H1 only, period!
(Nutmegmilk's post shows 14,200 for Dec 2nd for Rh but mine shows 14,000). Close enough to be in the same ballpark.

- It's the H2 for last year that is insurmountable and for H2, I lean more towards your view but not as deeply, until the H1 is actually published as until the revenue is known it's entirely possible the result could be better than analysts lower forecasts.

Also as dire as I expect H2 to be, surely that's already baked-in to the analysts expectations? What's not known is whether the current metals prices " floor" are above or below their estimates made back then, that show in the current forecast for a) the full year and b) Might that be adjusted if H1 achievements are not as lower performing as expected. These are the data results I obtained:

Rhodium:
Last year H1 up to Dec 2nd average for period = $12,513
This year's current period average up to Dec 2nd
=$15,938
A 27.3% Increase over last year!

Platinum:
Last year average = $908
This year average = $1,031
A 4.6% increase over last year!

Palladium:
Last year average = $2,265
This year average = $2,289
An increase but only just at 1% up.

Further more when you compare the price average achieved this year to date and compare to the WHOLE of the H1 period for last year it's still less when compared to this year's current averages, ie.,
Rhodium last year full H1 = $13,094
Platinum last year full H1 = $927
Palladium last year full H1 = $2,278

So, I'm much more optimistic for a better than expected forecast for this year's H1 results. Not higher than last year as several issues not least the obvious one that revenue due to the auto industry drop off must mean lower revenue - despite higher metals prices achieved in this year's trading to date.

(Will see if that fits in one post as it all gets turned upside down for H2 observations in the next post, where I  expect a lot of your lower forecasts to come to the fore).

Rhodium et al -

Here's the eyebrow raising bit I hope to show in the data averages:
Rh prices for Q1 THIS trading year and up to currently 2/3rd through this Q2, have actually been HIGHER than last year's Rh prices achieved, for the same comparable period!

Should the current Rh price not increase a single penny more, then H1 by December 31st, will still show a handsome gain in higher Rh prices achieved so far this current trading year, over last year!

(The end of this new month December, concludes trading for H1).

However, despite higher comparable period Rh prices, that doesn't mean SLP has taken as much revenue in Rh sales as last year. On the contrary, the auto industry's debacle suggests very much not so.

- The Q2 update in late January should reveal the outcome of that query, possibly with a positive effect upon the SP if actual trading figures are not as poor as the dour market  sentiment has led us thus far to believe.

That leaves last year's Q3 and Q4 (H2) v this year's to account for; which is of a different order of magnitude and where all the negative damage will occur.
There should be enough momentum achieved in this year's Q1 and current Q2 to offset at least 'some' of last  year's Rh ATH's.

And of course, will Rh prices also inch forward in 2022 or not? And thus maybe narrow the gap even further?

Will need to do the same exercise for the other PGM's,  but have to see how much time I have available.

There's also the quality of the feed received for proccessing to consider, as it increases costs, although recent reports indicate an improving position on that front.

Hopefully I'll at least find the time to post the Rh comparable period averages, if not all the metals.

Then form a rough and ready guesstimate opinion in relation to the SP during this unresolved chip situation, in readiness for the big H1 reveal in February (Q2 reveal only, in January).

Many thanks Stoodio, for your very generous and fulsomely supportive post. Appreciated.

Incidentally, I concur wholly with your 2 year window. That's my view too,
 - but probably for differing reasons with mine coming from using the route in the 'v weird' category :) :)

- - - - -

Rhodium post up next:

I'm pulled asunder these days and not back home until next week, hence the late night posts as mostly the only available time I have free, when away. No sooner back than I'm away again by late next week.

Whatever, I hope if able, to run-up some monthly and quarterly averages on Rhodium price comparisons, as after the beating Rh prices have taken in the latter part of this year I wonder if the findings will raise an eyebrow or two, and/or completely surprise a few others?

First a word on Trading Result forecasts:
Analysts have forecast a modest (modest IMO only) drop in SLP's revenue - but a much more severe and seriously damaging, larger drop in Net Profit for the current trading year, so can't argue with them
 . . . or can one at least challenge them at the Q2 reveal in late January? :)
(Bare in mind for last year, that Q1 last year opened with early figures as low as $8,000 for Rh prices).

Part 2 concludes >>

. . . Until then, I'll allow it some space to see if it can go on to  the next rise which should propel it a little above 110. If it does it's not a recovery only a more generous rating whilst the market eyes up the chip situation. It can't be a recovery until a bullish catalyst of some sort hoves into view, be it a chip recovery or something else.

The SP has thus far since August, refused to go lower on any re-visits back to the 80's. Will this week destroy that observation?

Will simply have to see what the outcome is.

(Part 1 of 2)

First, the current sentiment trends in the SP, particularly since early November, are bearish.
And trends have been consistently bearish since May's ATHigh. That's the current position.

Despite a false positive bullish day last Thurs followed by a very bearish reversal last Friday, the trends are unmoved - they remain currently bearish.
- - - -

No getting away from that, the truth - so do bare that in mind.
What follows is an observation. It would be rash to turn it into a bullish forecast.

The answer to my earlier question is that since the ATLow occurred in August (ATLow since after the year's high in May, that is) the lows that followed after August, have been higher and the highs have also been higher
 - the very definition of an uptrending stock, is it not: higher highs and higher lows?
Will it develop into something?

You'd be forgiven for thinking that the SP has been nonstop falling, but only since August, has the SP has been doing the direct opposite - via a roller coaster ride.

Consider:

The SP after dropping steadily from May reached a low in August of circa (1p or so) below mid 80's.

It then went on a mini bull run in the first half of September, culminating a penny or two above 100 before then descending again finalising in the 2nd half of September at circa (a 1p or two) ABOVE the mid 80's.

Into October and that low roared up to the 110 high area before descending to where we are now.

So the lows, if this truly is the floor of the latest low, are each higher than the previous lows all the way back to August.
But more tellingly, each high has been higher than the previous highs from August onwards.

Each descent back into the 80's terminates before ever reaching as low as that seen previously. And vice a versa with the highs. Suggesting that if this is the latest low (in the high 80's) then the next eventual move might be a rise to circa a little above 110?

I have my doubts after the terrible close tonight. But hope I'm wrong as it would be a neat move to confirm the higher highs, meaning the market is valuing SLP more generously and refusing to go lower than that August low.

( Don't take my word for it, check out the price history yourselves :)

I would end it there under the guise of let it be and see what develops but tonight's close gives me the heebie jeebies.

It's possible this low is not finished and instead about to destroy all the above by breaking past all previous 80 floors.
A close in the next few days, lower than all previous 80's revisits, would confirm the above as only a random pattern and worse is yet to come.

Until then, I'll allow it some space to see if it can go on to  the next rise which should propel it a little above 110. If it does it's not a recovery only a more generous rating whilst the market eyes up the chip situation. It can't be a recovery until a bullish catalyst of some sort hoves into view, be it a chip recovery or something else.

Well, all UK markets from Aim upwards all closed the day up bullishly; but by day's end, gone was the general circa 1.5% market gain with them all closing just a shade under 1%.

The US markets are currently where UK markets were all day at 1.6% up, with a few hours left before they close.

You're only supposed to expect the open, to on average, mostly reflect the overnight futures sentiment which they did to a tee, but dissapointing for UK markets to drift under 1% gain by close.

Worse shame is that SLP was excluded from the generally upbeat day for UK stocks. My portfolios closed even higher by the close. Should have been similar for most others I expect.

However have you noticed the lows and highs of SLP since August?
If you have - your observations should deliver the same response for both. Intriguing.

Will post those late tonight if time, but it's suggestive of the fact that going lower than the the 80's is looking more and more a tall order since August. Whatever, has to be a limit for that continuance without some catalyst, particularly whilst the chip issue remains unresolved.

Will briefly elaborate later on, but see for yourself in the meantime - if interested :)

Tea leaves my rrrs!
- Futures indicate overnight trading and often but not always, give a good indication of sentiment when markets actually open.

All UK markets are currently UP (FTSE 1.6%+) in line with futures before markets actually opened.

Some people will deny the truth to push their own agenda. Repeat, all UK markets are UP. That's all that was highlighted with the implication the sentiment may spread around in general.

SLP has its own issues and missed out on this general market bounce today.

Not good if this is your only share - but it's boosted my portfolios after Black Friday's disaster.

Some people are just beyond the pale and should be recognised as such.

"....opened strongly across all international markets at 11:00am."
-------------

Ruddy auto-correct - 11pm tonight - not am !

Anyway, bodes well for tomorrow morning. Not a single futures market is down - all bullish so far.

Yes, looking tht way. Noticed the futures markets for the USA, UK, europeme, particularly Germany, opened strongly across all international markets at 11:00am.

Half an hour later they've all increased further quite noticeably.

It would appear the high amount of HIV community in SA are being mentioned as more at risk, where for everyone else this:

"Dr Schoub added that, while research is still being done on the effectiveness of vaccines against Omicron, "we can be fairly comfortably optimistic" that jabs will protect against severe disease.

Well that's new - the first reports that this new strain is mild - so far.

And the futures have responded by opening v bullishly and increasing so far.

- Not even an hour yet since the futures opened for the new week so early doors yet.

I t's international, worldwide. FTSE is already down 3%+

Nothing to do with this particular stock - it's all stocks, all markets currently.

Futures for those international markets yet to open are down massively. What an introduction to Black Friday.

Well what a pleasant close to the day.
A more than respectable well over 7%+ increase for the day!
Not to be sniffed at, or ignored.

No sooner arrived back at base on Tuesday than I hit the road on Sunday again, for yet another week away; so today’s performance sets up Black Friday for a most promising outlook tomorrow.

It’s safer to not stick one’s neck out against the current trends but today’s performance IS something special to savour.
Micro trends which I don’t usually refer to publicly, are twitching encouragingly, whilst the more significant trends I see, haven’t yet offered any obvious hope of a respite.

Too much to expect November to attempt closing on normal performance expectations (was expecting a small gain for the month)
- but pulling my horns in, there’s still 3 full trading days left in November which from this vantage point look . . . . . promising, to attempt closing the gap a little.
(Not expecting £1 to be breeched tomorrow but perhaps closer to it though ).

Nor looking for November to close with the previously expected small gain, but a closing of the gap somewhat, would be encouraging for a more equitable rating of the SP.

Have extraordinarily (unreasonable maybe?) very high expectations for January and February, so a nice attempt by the SP from these uber-lows beforehand, would be most encouraging.

Not a full scale recovery, of course not yet, but . . .

Promising: that’s what I’ll settle for – promising :)

" The SP confounds again... it’s very odd the 2 week slow decline in SP... Any thoughts?
----------

Well, you've as good as said it ic152, November has returned the SP back into a renewed bear grip. Sentiment is bearish, no matter that revenue and net profit last showed increases on prior years.

This past 5 year history has seduced us. It's been a dire downtrend in the SP since breaking cover after price peaked in May. Everything that had previously been relied on, no longer is.
SP-wise things are quite downbeat. It's showing no signs of abating, despite the false rallies leading all on a merry dance.

Off up north tomorrow - again. Had a lot more in mind to post but out of time again.

SLP is riding through badlands.

" Velo, I think Nov/Dec will be even better than October..."

---------------

Had the Black Swan event not occurred in the summer I would readily support that assertion 100% but for one thing:

Such a massive % SP increase for October alone, is totally unheard of in the entire SP history of SLP. (The whole bad summer has tilted the SP world on its axis) I had a more modest % increase in mind for November.

So, I'm in some flux that November may not be able to replicate October's performance; unless of course Stoodio's assertion of the 2 month usually bullish July/Aug period is transferred to Oct & Nov, then all will be well.

Whatever, I'm not married to my "historic-cyclicaly-based" view, just observations at this juncture, as what matters is that the trends are indeed bullish, so will follow the bullish trend, whatever it delivers; whether it's big % gains now or later :)  :)

Well, a tremendous performance for October by finishing with a circa 20% SP gain for the month; making it the single best performing October for SLP ever -
(and kudos to Stoodio for never wavering from his assertion of the once dependable Juy/Aug period being delayed to Oct/Nov).

Must admit I had quite low expectations for October (but not for November).

However, Stoodio’s persistence has held water for October
- also making it, the single best-performing month of this trading year so far.

I had higher hopes for Nov than Oct, so hope this doesn’t put the kybosh on Nov by posting that :)

I have high expectations for Jan/Feb too, but only if the natural characteristic rhythm of the SP flickers to life, as since this summer and that black swan event, things are not yet back in a regular orbit.

July & August are (or at least once were) the heartbeat of the year’s performance and Jan & Feb were the soul.

The bulk of the year’s SP gains came from those two periods for the past 5 years – until this summer just gone.
Has that dependability now gone for a burton with the summer’s events?

The fact that September performed to its yearly buy on the rumour sell on the news under-performance, suggests maybe not, so apart from Nov, the next big test of that 5 year long heartbeat, is January; or at least a noticeable flicker from it :)