Member Info for Velo

Just to break with default logic seeing this early hours 5% drop in the SP, you'd expect nothing good elsewhere in SLP's orbit
- but Rhodium is the opposite in these early hours continuing the nice bullish inrease on top of Friday's Rhodium performance. So no drop in Rhodium at this juncture - so rule that one out.

Gezafeckinloo! The force is strong with this retrace. Don't care what it costs, who it upsets, but can't wait until Dec for Crozier to arrive. Jansen needs a close confidant and wingman NOW! Get him to come round on his day's off! He can wear a Groucho Marx disguise kit of fake eyebrows, fake glasses, fake nose and moustache disguise

Whatever the cause of this retrace in the SP, it's already happened. Investors are living daily with the damage.

However, for my own sake, let alone fellow BT investors, you should all hope I am entirely wrong that the blame can be laid at the door of the worldwide chip shortage crisis.

Estimates by chip industry commentators range from recovery commemcing next year to not until 2023.

If the cause is the chip shortage and should Jansen mention its impact in the autumn H1 trading update, then that means no rapid recovery back to the £2 area, as no company affected has yet recovered, and are learning to live at new lows in their SP's.

So, for my own wealth protection, I hope my chip assertion is proven to be unfounded.

Investors have already suffered one 5 year long, prison chain-gang descent in their SP. We don't want another.

Thank you, E/Scotch & Stoodio.

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EggScotch @ " . . . and a bit underwater. But I've only invested what I can afford, . . . "

Sorry to now hitch my diary-trailer to your post E/Scotch; but your sentiments are pertinent to my post :)
Because,

- By the vicissitudes of outrageous fortune, I'm in a comparable situation.

Had my head elsewhere at the height of the summer, and as the SP rose, kissing the high 140's at one point, I was sitting on a 5 figure profit, no less! Yummy :)

By the time I came to my senses (all my fault I might add, I was playing about experimenting, at the worst time possible with a new strategy) I had already strayed off my true path of trend following.

By the time Rhodium had forced itself (the micro chips were already a known-known) into everyone's consciousness that it was going to empty it's bowels - straight into it's pants, my SLP "fortune" had descended to now barely a four figure profit.
And I had already erroneously increased holdings elsewhere in SLP into a new experimental strategy resulting in my being overweight in SLP.

Decided to sell my entire initial (profitable) holding over several tranches to lock-in that ever descending profit, as now had a new holding in another account elsewhere in SLP that was, and still is, 'underwater'.

I'm ready to rebuild my holding in my main account in more modest steps (whilst the other SLP account is in play)
- by adhering strictly to my older, proven in the heat of battle, preferred investing strategy - trend following.

(So, despite Friday's 8% rise, it's still a way to go to qualify as bullish, under my original T/F strategy guidelines).

So, on the second count I too, am now only invested with what I can afford, despite an overall portfolio of 6 figures.

So, "under water"? = tick
Only holding "what I can afford"? = tick

(And still tinkering with the "experiment"; but with the added caveat - only to act when the trend lines are giving the green light anyway).

" ... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."

It doesn't really matter to me if BT again drops down to £1 . . . "

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To be clear, all joking aside - at this juncture I can't entertain, nor offer support to anyone who thinks £1 is even remotely on the cards - it isn't.

That 150/151 area has so far resisted magnificently well in that, the bears have had insufficient strength to drive the SP down to it.

Intradayed as deep as 152, yes, but didn't break it - and even if the bears did regain strength and return to drive the SP to break past 151 and more, there are 2 further deeply significant Fibbo 'checkpoint' areas like 151 to get past.

Only then, when the next two deeper checkpoints were under the cosh, and in the bears gunsights would, I stand aside from arguing against those maintaining £1 was feasible. It's not on the cards. It just isn't.

It's a race to get to the better months and well clear of this sheet :)

Fleccy, clicked the 2nd link in your post and sat here quietly chuckling to myself.

Did a feint recall memory not alert you as to where you may have read those media contents elsewhere beforehand?

No? :)

How about these bits:
" BT has also crossed the... 200-day moving averages while the Relatively Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the oversold level."

And -

"... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."
- - - - - -

That's all from your 2nd link.

None of it ring a bell? You sure you haven't already read all that, elsewhere? :) :) :)

Nope, sorry, don't agree at all Fleccy.

That Yahoo journo is being forced to make it up to try and make it fit after the event. The plain truth is, that journo has no idea why BT is so savagely down and is just creating empty stories with no meaning.

Vod, Lloyd's & HSBC, (just checked) and yes just as I suspected, all for the past 5 years have a characteristically underperforming summer in general over the years. (Cyclicals aka seasonality charts). They're just performing to type.

So if you'd asked me at the commencement of summer I could have relayed my findings on the stocks you quoted in advance - just as I posted on here in circa May/June that BT would under-perform this summer.

The shock/horror is, that I did NOT expect this severity! Something else is at play
- and the best I can come up with is the market sentiment changing bearishly against the telecommunications stocks due to the micro chip crisis.

- However in BT's case this retrace is over extended to an alarming degree. And IMO is greater than just a characteristic of BT traditionally having a poor summer

(ergo: the corollary of that, is that I'm expecting a decent performance from BT over Oct/Nov/Dec - but that was before this serious retrace forced itself in your face).

Also, I don't take a blind bit of notice of media opinion pieces that alert you to reasons as to why something is down after the event. As said, it's mostly guesswork to fill pages. If they knew - they'd tell you before it happened - not afterwards.

- LOL! We can all make predictions after those predictions have already happened.

Bare in mind that's just one report's "opinion".

There are many others.

Some opined things would noticeably ease by the end of this year,
- others by early next year,
- some just 'next year' in 2022,
- and yet more (only a few) opining that it's all been grossly underestimated and they don't see anything like back to normal until 2023.

Take your pick.

Anchoring to just one that offers the least pain is risky with so many others differing to each other, in the recovery.

Personally, to avoid dissapointment, I'm mentally prepared to not become too over confident until that 2023 forecast expires, whilst inwardly ready to celebrate should the early bird recovery reports prove the more prescient before then. That way you can't be dissapointed, only ever pleased to hear of things improving.

I bet there are recent buyers to this stock who are under water and should each report's deadline's prove unfruitful, lose confidence and sell at a loss unable to see an end to the pain (should the SP remain unresponsive).

That's what anchoring to the best dated guidance to early recovery reports can inflict upon investors.

No offence but I'm taking nil notice of all posts linking to a fav analyst - (including ST of the IC mag) - unless that analyst is also a billionaire because they're always right on the money :)

All of it, including our own, is just someone else's opinion. In one of my investing book there's a chapter from years ago where they discovered that the majority of financial analysts personal portfolio's had performed no better than a typical private investor (which was then 6% gain overall, per year for PI's in general).

Anyway, how does that saying go again, something along the lines of:
- Plan for the worst just in case, but remain upbeat, that better prevails?

" Lets see what washes out in the next couple of weeks "

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It's getting late, so I'll agree on that.
( I agree to let you catch up with events :)

(But I solidly maintain my raison d'être for this SP retrace regardless :)

With an ID handle like mine, I shouldn't really be including French idioms in my posts; been mistaken/accused of being a frog before now.

" Investors in BT move on, it’s a dead duck "
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- No it's not. Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

"It's the SOLE reason for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it?"

Where did you read that Velo?
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Why, I read it from my own deductions :) :)

BT's Smart Hub 2's et al will be 100% affected for starters. Doesn't matter that they're nothing to do with the fibre upgrading; the market dislikes anything that is a negative to trading - without a replacement. I feel absolutely certain that Jansen will mention it in his H1 trading update a period that concludes in a fortnight.

Please read the two links thoroughly. There's another link within Whetherboy's link too. I have others, but too late at night to go hunting. Start Googling yourself
- you don't have trouble Googling Bitcoin rubbish; what's stopping you on this important sentiment change towards the telecoms industry?

The sector/ industry has been infected by the crisis. Sectors and industries go in and out of fashion. The word is telecoms is being hit by the chip shortage. And that affects sentiment. There is NO other conclusion to be drawn as to the reason for this big over extended SP retrace.
(It also means there's a date-stamped resoultion to this retrace too).

Was reading an unsolicited sales blurb on my phone that was trying to flog the top 3 chip manufacturers butI later filtered through my stock screener and came up with loads in the US anyway.

However, it highlighted that the market sentiment had NOW turned negative against the telecommunications industry in the US.
So doesn't matter about the rights and wrongs and actual depth of effect upon BT - all teleco's have come under distasteful market sentiment - those huge volumes you're seeing is the big guys moving OUT of teleco's - not mysterious dark pools - that's what trends are - the big guys taking months to change their positions.

The word is out. It's time to include telecoms in industries affected by the chip shortages - everybody in telecoms is feeling the pinch, however tenuous the connection.

- that's the reason for BT's over-extended big SP retrace.

" No doubt the vested interest media may try and make something of it, but we'll see what happens "
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Oh they are already - and with good reason.

As an indirect result of the worldwide chip shortage I am hereby now claiming this unresolved retrace issue that commenced in high summer, is as a direct result of that chip shortage.

I am holding to that viewpoint through thick and thin unless/until anyone can provide evidence to the contrary.

Orangecannon @
"I was expecting a 5%+ drop (SLP) . . . as I thought Rhodium was plummeting . . . Did it bounce? "

-------------------------

Kinda :)

Idly checked just now, with similar thoughts, but discovered (Johnson Matthey site) Rhodium had increased today from $11,250 at yesterday's close to today's Friday close, of $12,350

- That's almost, just under, a near significant 10% rise in Rhodium alone, today :)

PS.
That Thursday $11,250 was awfully close to the last chance saloon's $10,700 as to make no difference, in a table I posted before heading up north recently ( I calculated it as the 78.6% final Fibonacci level).
Treat it more as a checkpoint level not as a forecast).

Whatever, it was close enough to imply it's already bounced away from the entrance to death valley - for now at least anyway.

Here's the UK link I was referring to, Wetherboy :

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/08/global-chip-shortage-continuing-to-impact-uk-broadband-isps.html?utm_source=pocket_mylist

ISP's such as BT and all the others like Virgin better have a reasonable stockpile of broadband routers - as currently it's over a year wait for any supplier to come up with a router the ISP's need for new customers.

It's the SOLE reasonm for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it? Too much bl@@dy Bitcoin and Ryanair comparison posting, that's how!

I shouldn't be telling him - he should be telling me!

That's the right track w/boy. Busy now so will read it fully later on.

The one I saw details the manufacturing delays now in play with the routers etc., not just phones, but gear needed by the likes of BT to complete customer requirements. A lot of BT's and VOD's tech suppliers are in trouble as of right now. Back orders building up with no clear dates from the chip manufactures to complete back orders for their equipment required by the teleco's. The market has reacted to this since June.

Fleccy, you've been querying me, so question time for you.

- I've come to a decision as to why BT's SP has been trending downwards since June (and VOD too).

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I'll let you research if all other telecommunications stocks have felt the heat since June too :) I suspect they have.
I haven't checked - but it's a teleco engineering issue - so should be right in your court this one.

I'll provide as many reports as I can find to back up my assertion if you can't guess it :)

It's all detailed on the 'net .

And it's nothing to do with Drahi or conspiracy volumes - IMO :)

But it is a serious issue for all teleco stocks. You engineering types should have posted on this issue before now, and alerted us non-tech engineering types long before now.

Only a fortnight to go before the Q2 finalises, so expecting the BT trading update by the end of October or very early in Nov as the H1 report by BT.

I also expect Jansen to blame any shortfalls on this issue I'm alluding to as not of BT's doing (which it isn't - but still betting he brings it up in his H1 update).

What is that engineering teleco issue I'm talking about? :)
You're the engineering expert - you tell me :)
(I know next to nothing about telecoms engineering:)

PS. If you can't answer correctly then you've got to ease up on Bitcoin, and Ryanair comparisons, as it's making you take your eye off the ball.

My post was in response to orangecannon's post, for it to make sense.

Well it is quadruple twitching-hour day today, (options expire) as I've just been reminded elsewhere :) Weird things occur.

So will copy/paste what I posted in response :) . . .

" Good point Tom. Overlooked that one. The third Friday of the month of the Third quarter is the most significant.

Urban stockmarket legend has it that -
What was once trending up, often mysteriously trends downwards, and what was once trending downwards often trends upwards - after the witching hour day!

SLP has been trending down to date. SOoooooo . . . :)

So on this occasion, we should welcome the old market urban myths and legends :)

Good point Tom. Overlooked that one. The third Friday of the Third quarter is the most significant.

Urban stockmarket legend has it that -
What was once trending up, often mysteriously trends downwards, and what was once trending downwards often trends upwards - after the witching hour day.
BT has been trending down to date. SOoooooo . . . :)

So on this occasion, we should welcome the old market urban myths and legends :)

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Bkkbkk - don't have one.
Let it all unfold, as I track all by following how the SP trends.
Volume was fantastic today - as recorded by Daily trading volume alone. And it's shown by a good SP performance too, but it did cut back by close.
It still hasn't got near to a key paired trendline I'm using - only the first base trendline - in fact there has been barely more than one occasion since June that the SP has broke through the first (short term) trendline and kissed the larger twin paired trendline. Not today. Still below the first one. So not getting excited just yet.

More or less.

They have to be "matched". The trades have already taken place. The admin side is not the price side - it's just matching up trades to balance - not new trades.

A lot of it is caught up in administrative tasks. No telling to which trades the UT totals refer to.

In t'olden days pre-computers, in the pit, the jobbers (MM's) would shout and hand signal, with fist fulls of paper IOU's etc., others desperate to unload in a falling price would crowd the jobber with their sale. All they would have as a receipt is a flimsy piece of paper; hence their phrase became general usage:
My word is my bond.

It all had to be matched/tallied up by the end of the day - Uncrossing Trades.

Imagine all that now handled by computers, and still modern computerised technology can't handle it - with most sites having computers that literally "guess" whether a trade is a buy or a sell price (hence so many buys v sells is inaccurate - only the volume traded is a truer reflection).