Member Info for Velo

There's comfort for SLP to be taken from THS's Q1 trading update in that it has been well received by the market with quotes of:

" Best quarter on record kicks off a transformative year "
&
" Phoevos Pouroulis, CEO of Tharisa, commented: A great start to our new financial year".

- And the market has respunded positively.

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I'm optimistic for something of a similar reception when SLP's Q2 update is published either by the end of next week or the following Monday, as all PGM prices for trading updates referring from October 2021 to 2021 calendar year end, were higher than those faced by the industry for the similar period covered in the previous year's period.

(Both THS's Q1 and SLP's imminent Q2 cover the same calendar dates).

The 'bubble' PGM prices that occurred from January 2021 to the ATHigh of May all appear in SLP's H2 territory. So H2 is the trouble spot - not H1 which will be revealed with the imminent Q1 update.

Got little time left before I'm off-grid from next week until I return after the Q2 update is published, so will try to cobble a spreadsheet before I go with the analysts consensus market forecast pre-inserted and a column for the whole H1 achieved, to reveal what SLP has to do, to achieve the H2 target by end of this June, once the Q2 is known.

And see if posters think the resultant figures are achievable or not. Don't care at this point about versus last year, only that of meeting full market guidance.
Of course, once Q2 and therefore H1 is known it might be that brokers upgrades/downgrades for H2 will be issued to adjust current market guidance expectations.

Q2 will likely be published either on Friday 28th of next week,
- or the following Monday of the 31st January.

They will give the already known Q1 and compare it to the Q2 on whichever day they choose to publish, but it's mostly always on the last day or next to last day of January.
Simple job to add the two together to get the H1 or wait an hour or so on the day and the media analysts will probably publish a review.

Otherwise it's February 21st until the official H1 is published.

I think the Q2 won't disappoint.

Can't say that for the second half H2 though (January to June) until we first see H1.

The London Stock Exchange is giving out 100p as is this site, so both are in accordance.

My own subscription paid data which is first shipped out across to the US then back here to me (supposed to be live but always a 15 seconds delay) is showing the close as 100.5p.

All emanates from the London Stock Exchange, so £1 close it is then . . .

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SLP/sylvania-platinum-limited/company-page

even when i
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- even when it turns out, it's wrong :)

Brief word on the likelihood of bearish encounters gaining a presence again from tomorrow (IMO). Looking a bit iffy now.

Definite bearish indications are afoot, but, I'm leaning to them being temporary rather than the bad ol' let's go visit the 80's days again, if they do turn up in greater force than expected. They will turn up, but a 2 or 3 day job, or more serious?

I'd rather take note of changes (bullish) tonight, so -

Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3 . . . . (cue music)

Although it was by close yesterday, that the Intermediate trend finally, finally, kissed and ever so slightly showed a suggestion of a cross to the upside, thus joining the ranks of the bullish insurrection, it is a clearly visible cross to the upside tonight despite price being somewhat static (a cross to the upside just like that on THS). But expectations were for that to occur here as long as the £1 area is held.

Drifited back a bit from the entrance area to Overbought territory too, tonight. Just a drift not a rout, so far. So that's welcome.

Takes a lot to shift the Intermediate trend (the first of the big boys).
It's the barely perceptible rising bottoms (3 of them now since last August with 2 peaks only so far - waiting for the current set-up to develop into the 3rd peak) that have influenced this latest trend to take up the bull colours). Once it sits comfortably in the saddle then, . . .

. . . the next trend up to that, the Medium term trend is v close on the heels of the Intermediate trend to finish off the bears for the foreseeable - if it's allowed to seed.

Medium term trend was last bullish back in summer of last year. So the fact that's it's close at hand girding it's loins etc., ready to turn bullish, is significant.

The biggie to end all speculation will be the 200 day trend turning bullish which it's not at present - that will be a longer two-part story. So danger remains everywhere still.

Haven't forgotten the autumn months of last year where higher highs and barely higher lows became apparant (it's still active) as want to see the outcome of that.

Must say this as yet incomplete 3rd peak is a massive mess, barely discernable.

A peak? More like the monster mountain ramparts that that the main character in the movie, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, builds on his dining table :)

January so far, is falling in line with January of past histories, despite all previous months being broken by the chip carry-on.
Should it close the month not a penny more than this £1 area then it will have fulfilled it's promise as dictated by the computer seasonals, and lays the ground for what is the only other 100% strong bet for 2022 and that is February.

Thereafter even the computer is sitting on it's hands. It's only prepared to give 100% bullish 'certainty' recommendations for January and February, but that could improve if things in general improve. I like it when the computer is "100%" certain of bullish events, even when i

Well, to paraphrase an England football manager of yesteryear:

- Did I NOT like that close tonight, or what?!? :)

I saw 102 mid morning (for approx an hour or so) yet it's not showing up on this site as the day's high. And then I left for the bulk of the day.
Felt sure if it couldn't get back to 102 by the time I returned, that a 101 close would more than suffice with a 100 close as acceptable to remain in the bullish camp.

99.9 close still qualifies the SP as technically remaining in a bull trend (barely) for going into Tuesday, but every fibre of my being is screaming out to expect a red day tomorrow.
My biggest failing with stocks is giving in to my human instinctive judgements rather than total, blind adherence to proven systematic process, strategies.

1) The computer says trend indications are still bullish.
2) My judgemental inner voice is saying maybe, possibly, not good enough a close to remain bullish for Tuesday.

Not in the market for making any changes to my current holding anyway, so . . .

- Will just have to suck it and see on the day.

The quest continues... :)

Hi Stoodio,

104 is coincidentally the 2nd highest intraday resistance for Monday, so that too is a possibility :)

I won't mention the 3rd highest pivot point level as they are prone to less likely to transpire on the day.

Similar set-up in reverse from sub 99 downwards, if the bears rule instead on the day.
Strong bullish close on Friday so expecting nothing untoward occurring on Monday whatever eventually evolves.
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Didn't realise that new listing (GFS) you mentioned the other day is already the third largest chip maker in the world as it has a long history in private hands before launching on the stockmarket. (US based stock, of course).

Thank you EggScotch & Nc..85.

Using this post as a vehicle to distract myself from other tasks that need completing today :)

So, just run up some calcs for use on Monday only, and disabled for use on any day after that; for Monday only -

- I'm looking for a minimum close to the day of no less than 102.
(Have further subsequent higher levels for Monday to hand, but first things first; I'd like to see if 102 gets owned).

Odds are increasing of maybe an odd red day or two of temporary SP consolidation/pause; so to counter that, then anywhere from a close of between 99p to 102 means (to me) the rally is still in bullish mode, and a pullback day is put off in abeyance.

However, the dramatic speed of movemnent in the second half of last week has propelled the SP up v near to the temporary overbought entrance.
(When the predominant trend is bullish you hardly notice a pullback, and label it nothing but market zig-zagging "noise" when it later exits Overbought.
- but when the predominant trend is bearish then entering overbought condition nearly always ends up with it exiting painfully, stinging quite a bit).

So if a temporary halt to proceedings is on the cards for Monday then closing anywhere below 99, (specifically for Monday: between 99 down to 97) would likely signal that the rally is taking a hit and a pullback is imminent. (IMO only)

Things are short term bullish, so seeing 102 taken prisoner by close is my preferred minimum option for just Monday alone :)

Left a lot of thoughts out as posts were getting too long, but after highlighting that the recent rise in Rh has not yet breached a single meaningful prior swing high resistance level (formed on the way down) I did mean to compare to SLP's recent and current performance.

First, the SP has broken past a pair of weak but still potential resistance levels (IMO) circa in the lower 90's of late December and a little higher at circa just under 96's area of late November. (Again all IMO only).

Similarly, there's another weak (ie., do-able) but potential resistance area of the low 102's area, but be that as it may, the first truly significant 'tougher' test for the SP to overcome lies just flush of the 110 area that was formed in late October.

Breaching that one, would be impressive.

(Concludes Part 2)

PS: VOLUME
Was that magnificent SP gain on Friday alone, a fluke? And also the increased SP momentum of the latter half of last week too?

Volume tells all on both counts.

First, Volume has been gently decreasing since October-ish, which means any dramatic rise or decrease in the SP is likely to be short-lived if volume is low/lower than longer-term volume averages.

As said, volume has been drifting gently lower for the past couple of months now

- but -

- Since the commencement of 2022, daily volume has on the whole, mostly closed each day a little higher than the longer-term volume averages, with Friday being one of the highest in that bull run of last week.

Conclusion?
SP rise is supported by current daily volumes being higher than the longer-term daily volume averages, so likely not a fluke or a fake breakout.

However, early days yet and need one more authoritative trend line to seal the deal and contribute to the bull rally by staking another claim in the soil.

(Part 1 of 2)

There was a post the other day ruminating whether the increase in the SP coincided with the rise in Rh as the reason for the turn in the SP, or wether it was merely buyers 'front running' so to speak, in expectance off a recovery in the price of Rh.

Well consider this -

Rh commenced rising (recovering?) on the 4th January (Johnson Matthey prices).

It ceased rising just before the first big test in recovery, the 2-day swing high of the 31st August and 1st Sept @ $17,600 by pausing just below it at $17,500.
It was rejected by that former support, now turned resistance fighter, of the 31st August & 1st of Sept.

Not an accident it travelled only to $17,500 and no further - IMO.

Since then, the 10th and 11th of Jan, it has retraced its steps back down the ladder, pausing last Thursday and Friday at now $16,400.

So in essence, Rh has yet to break past a meaningful, notable prior high. It hasn't won any battles yet. It retreated at the first test.

The next big test for Rh is the big platform formed in the entire first half of August that rested at $19,000

As it got within $100 of the first 'weak' hurdle it won't impress me if a second attempt surmounts the initial $17,600 target to only rest up at say $18,000.

The big test is that $19,000 area. Too soon?

- Now compare that Rh performance to the recent SP performance for SLP.

The SP kicked off first, a week earlier, before Rh moved a muscle by rising from the 22nd and 23rd of December, with the trendlines only spotting it on the move by the 24th December - all of them before Rh had even moved out of its barracks!

Now whilst Rh paused for 2 days on the 10th and 11th of January, so did SLP's SP, but thereafter Rh commenced retracing, pulling back to Friday's low of that entire break-out attempt (Rh break-out still might not be over though).

The SP on the other hand for last Wed, Thurs and Friday, did the opposite of Rh and increased consecutively with Friday closing with an impressive 4%+ rise alone!

It's not "proof" but I throw it in as suggestion that this SP rising trend might have more legs than Rh, as the market re-evaluates a more nuanced view of a 'fairer value' of the SP.

Bears might opine that no: it's an over-reaction by investors in SLP as the rise is outpacing the rise in Rh?

I'm leaning more to the trading updates NOT warning of failing to meet targets, but confirming compliance, and with a fortnight to go, and if market forecasts are at least met and no worse - then it's only right that the SP might 'balance' up quicker, slightly faster than any recovery in Rh.

(Continues > > > )

A quick word that yes, it would appear that a new-ish bullish SP trend is underway and gaining strength - but with a caveat.

And that caveat is; that I first want to see the next trend up – the Intermediate trend, to contribute full confirmation by crossing over to the upside from bearish to bullish, thus signifying that this bull trend is the real deal and not a fake break-out. (See full trends below)

Observations on trends (IMO):

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Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish - & worse, trending southwards!

Long term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish ***
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish ***
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH
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*** ie., Both are closing in fast, & looking likely to cross over to bullish trends any day now.

I had the short-term trend confirming its bullish outlook on the 24th December and it has only strengthened and remained so, since that day.

Curiously the canary in the mine, the Ultra short-term trend, only turning bullish since January 6th (reflecting the micro zig-zagging since the larger trend crossed to the upside). Usually it chirps first.

Of all the trends, I am most concerned by one of the longer term trends, the mighty 200 day trend, of which not only is price still below it, which is disastrous enough, but much worse, the 200 day trend itself has long since ceased trending upwards (whilst price remained below it, and remains so, but maybe only for a day or two longer?) but is still diving south like a submarine diving to the sea bed!

The so called infamous “death cross” occurred in the last week of August and has remained bearishly strong.

However, I’ll get my belt and braces bullish confirmation beyond doubt when the next trend up - the intermediate trend turns bullish, confirming the over-riding bearish trend in place since last summer - is weakening fast.

But I won’t “relax” until that out of control, bearish 200 day trend is finally tamed. Funds/institutions take notice of it.

So looking forward to that day, the taming of the mighty 200, which is some way away, yet.

In the meantime, the intermediate trend crossing to the upside is virtually days away rather than weeks (estimate only) and that will see me fully bullish in outlook.

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Next - A quick post next on the Rh price momentum and it’s divergence in the last few days that’s distinctly opposite to the SP’s performance and the volume it produced on Friday.

PS.
" . . . This is all because Jefferies issued a hold note with an outlier target price of 1550p, . . . "

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Hmm:
Or maybe instead, only another 30p-ish or so to go, before licking its wounds???

All is extremely bearish with Gama's SP trajectory; and has been since early September of last year, and is now entering the 5th consecutive month of consistent decline in the SP - without let up!

However (Last Chance Saloon scenario) I calculate that the v low 1450's is the last major Fibbo turning point. (All the others have been trashed with contempt by the SP).

So, If the SP continues southwards but commences to turn away from that price area (v low 1450's) then I'm topping up with confidence. But . . . . . .

. . . . But should it go screaming past that level, then all is lost and it's chucking out time in the Last Chance Saloon, and I'll sell my holding for a small-ish loss without question, and won't reconsider until April 1st

- as April for Gama has characteristically always been the most bullish month of the year for Gama, by far.

" Market expectations are looking for around a 20% dip overall in full year profits which means a target of $115m for the full year "

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Have to disagree with that Net Profit figure of $115m BazzM.
Think you may have inserted the pre-tax net profit figure or adjusted pre-tax net profit, or maybe the operating profit?

Whatever, Net Profit achieved for last year was a cool $100m ($99.8m actually but call it a fat round 100 for ease).

Therefore after the 25% reduction that the market expects - it can't possibly be above last year's net profit of $100m, only less than it.

The broker's Net Profit expectations and therefore the market's that I'm seeing, is for only $75m which is a 25% reduction on last year's net profit.

So we have a low ball estimate by LuckyL of $25m net profit and a more bullish Net Profit forecast by you (once you've revised the last figure).

Which way will the pendelum swing towards, between the two?
I don't know.
- But less than 4 weeks to go, to find out which of the two is more likely to be closer by the year end.
LuckyL cites bearish themes which I acknowledge,
BazzM cites bullish themes which I also acknowledge.

So I'm none the wiser; instead we'll just have to wait a few weeks more for the H1 release then there will only be 6 months left to figure out, to add to the known actual  H1 reveal.

SLP
Lucky, a side note:
I didn't say I thought your forecast was in absolute error only that:
" I think £25m net profit forecast is far too gloomy a view. "
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H1 concluded today. So that's it for the first 6 months trading.

The worst is yet to come (IMO) for fundamental metrics with H2 commencing from next week, set to have current PGM prices slaughtered by comparison to what was achieved in last year's H2 just for starters (January this year to June of this summer) hence important that H1 comes in, in line with market expectations.

Significant trends remain bearish for the SP, although the market is reluctant to sink past the 80's, (3 visits including currently, since August but no lower) teasing the suggestion of a market floor?

H2 will test that assumption.

January and February, from when the full history of SLP's launch on the stock market is examined has historically proven to be the strongest performing months of them all, in good times AND BAD.

When the consistently "fell off the edge of a cliff" years of the SP that endured in the early years of launch from 2011 to circa 2014/15 was in play, the 'knock your socks off' months of July and August didn't exist and were completely eviserated (except for the last 5 years only) with January & February being the last men standing for the SP's entire history, generally performing well in bad times as well as the good.

This current disruptive influence in the PGM industry has destroyed all prior historic reliabilies.

The final humiliation will be if both January and February go down the plug hole too, rubber-stamping a complete decimation of the SP by bearish disrupions.

From a Significant trends-wise standpoint I remain downcast in opinion (despite my belief that marketwide 2022 stocks will generally be okay) and put speficific SLP aspirations on hold for the longer term.

Should the SP trends for SLP improve in the meantime, then so will my opinions, but trends have been steadfastly bearish since late May.

Your opinion may differ :)

SLP
"... gives a projected net profit of £25million for the year..."
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Neah!
Whilst I agree with bearish sentiments for the SP as I don't expect the SP to truly motor for another 2 years, I think £25m net profit forecast is far too gloomy a view.

That would mean a humungous 75% collapse against net profits for last year. (Worthy of a profit warning and nothing of the sort in the RNS's has been issued or hinted at to date).

The market as far as I can assertain, is looking for 'only' a 25% drop in Net profits against last year.

Best wait until H1 results are out at the end of January as it's all wild speculation until we have a H1 actual base to calculate forward metrics.

Despite having falling revenue in H1 against last year's H1, do bear in mind all PGM base prices achieved in this year's H1 are still greater than those achieved in last year's H1.

Any gloomy outlook (for the SP) I'm on board with, but I disagree on the full year net profit projection - at least until we get sight of the H1 trading update next month.

Events have been far too disruptive to project forward balance sheet metrics at this juncture - until we get a published H1 result for this new landscape, to ponder over.

I was "Driving Home For Christmas" today, the earliest I've ever set out on that, and it felt distinctly unChristmasy as I'm used to travelling later (in the distant past usually on Christmas Eve, arriving at the 11th hour).

On the way, think it was Steve Wright or Jeremy Vine or somesuch presenter show, and they had the latest just released 11 months of EV car sales in the UK. They gave the hundreds of thousands in EV sales so far for this year, which they said equates to 10% of all vehicle sales captured by the EV's in the UK and still a full 12 months sales were not yet complete!

A question for all those posting EV sales will be slow to catch on.

Did you expect 10% of all vehicle sales to be achieved so far THI S YEAR (ie., only 11 months data revealed!) ??

Be honest, you'll only be kidding yourself if you curve fit to dismiss the growth of EV's.

For the record I'm anti EV's but just can't get my head round the fact that 10% of the market in the UK has already been captured by EV's with the full 12 months not yet complete! What increase will the next full year reveal?

Personally I won't be touching EV cars until 2030 where you'll get more bang for your bucks and better reliability/range.

Or will that 10% of owners come to rue the day they went all-in EV?

Then again it's a complete, full week to Christmas next week, so maybe next week instead??

Was hoping the annual Santa Rally would show up this year, as the past 2 months have been generally glum for most investors - but for SLP the 15th has been and gone.

Some copy/paste info:

Over the past 124 years the Santa rally typically got under way on the 15th December and generally terminated on 9th January - (when it occurred).

On average on those occasions, an annualised return (US stats only) of 40.98% was delivered in only 17 trading days!
( I can't believe a 40% lift for UK stocks but whenever it was 'the year' here too, there has been a very nice rise in that period here ).

Of those 124 years, only 28 of them brought losses instead, for the same period.

One often cited reason for the stock market rally at the end of the year is window dressing by investment funds. With investment funds supporting prices at the year-end in order to embellish their results? And the side-effect of boosting their bonus payments, which are often calculated at the turn of the year.

It's also been touted that most people tend to take stock at the end of the year as they position themselves for the new year.

- Whatever, it's not looking that much in evidence so far; make it Year 29 as a no-show by the Santa Rally??? :)

Priced in USD's