Member Info for Velo

Oops typo!

- ADVFN not ADFVN.

Briefly, have held - and sold MPE at the last High in April (plus my entire portfolios of stocks) without ever posting here in that time, so hopefully this is my last post, as am at risk of coming over as a deramper with this next post.

However, I think it’s relevant to this situation.

Here’s a v short chapter from one of Clem Chambers books (the boss of ADFVN) entitled:

‘Don’t Play With Political Footballs’:

(Capitals are mine)

“ Industries and companies can become political footballs. When they do, they are screwed.

BUSINESS FOLK THINK THEY ARE SMART AND TOUGH, but politicians are the next level of machismo. POLITICS WILL ALWAYS CRUSH BUSINESS.

It is a happy business that operates away from the dead hand of government. For sure, if an industry makes too much money, government will find a way to confiscate a lot of it.

One of the good things about new industries is that government takes a long time to get its fangs into them and therefore there is plenty of room for growth before the parasitical drain of government gets hold. The final phase of this death grip is when government tells business what to do and makes it pay for the blessing.

If a company is actually a political football, it is doomed. A company caught up in in a political process is like a ragdoll in a game of tug of war between two pit bulls. It can be fun to watch so long as you aren’t the poor kid who owns the ragdoll.

When politicians get involved in industry you need to remember they don’t know business, they know about politics. Politicians don’t care about business; they care about politics. You get the idea.

As such, a company that gets itself caught in the political machine can expect to be horribly mangled. “

" But it does mean sovereign policy risk is real. "

--------

Yes, it has all the building blocks in place to potentially, copycat the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956, should the Junta-like the govt take that route.

There's no telling how far the govt will go at some point in the near future.

Any company, in any country, that falls under direct govt interference is always at risk.

Yes, the current SP in relation to the stellar Qrtly results

- Is the current reaction of the market to SLP, evidence that the market is run on emotion and not as we like to believe, logic?

Your wish is looking likely to be granted Patryk, the live SP is currently up, sitting on the £1 fence area :)

So:

What came in the front door in Revenue for Q3 against Q2, and after all costs what was actually left at the back door against Q2?

In USD's percentages-

Q3 Net revenue is up 44% over the Q2 period!

and

Q3 Adjusted Net Profit is up 51% over Q2!

Huge increases as we were led to expect.

What's not to like? :)

Hi Owls,

I believe the 1st Qrtly results are expected next Tuesday, the 28th.

SLP have never published a specific date on their website - only the month in which each update will be published.

But consensus is for the 28th. In practise over the years it can sometimes vary by another day or so.

This week? ....... Ah well looks as if the floor of the SP, MAY be in this morning because Trump has blinked.

Will leave those of you busy elsewhere to catch up later on breaking news; about an hour ago.

(Basically. Trump has tweeted he's been in talks with Iran's (dead???) leaders for 2 days, and the talks have gone very well so he's abandoning his "planned" further attacks on Iran). Iranian TV broadcasts are awash with "Trump has backed down after our threats to retaliate further, if he carries out his latest threats".

Upon that mid morning breaking news, SP's in all my portfolios have improved significantly including SLP since the poor opening this morning.

However, Trump can't be trusted to carry a consistent thought for 5 minutes let alone 24 hours, so whilst I think it's a fair bet to believe the SP floor is in, it's a fair bet a fuller recovery is still some distance away yet.

Lucky, lucky, lucky . . . so far!

Look on the bright side:

SP suspended on Friday Feb 27th.

- Next day, Sat Feb 28th, Trump announces he's at war with Iran.

Slow impact at first, on most equities on the LSE but to date very few shares have escaped unharmed by retracing SP's.

One share can be considered lucky (MEGP) in so much in that its SP has been suspended and handed immunity from the general madness throughout this period - well until Monday 23rd of this month that is.

So holders in MEGP can breath easy all next week, then face whatever, on the Monday after next week.

If the war is still in full throttle mode, on the 23rd, then I guess any bearishness towards MEGP may well be magnified.

Or if geo-politically, events are not worsening further, then maybe if anything bullish comes out in the audit (and more importantly, receives credibility from the market) then there may be a prevailing atmosphere of 'phew it's not going to be as bad as feared' and bargain hunters may be on the prowl.

No one knows, so nothing anyone can do about this stock until that Monday anyway. (If the audit is not postponed once again).

Perversely, holders can be forgiven for willing the audit delay to continue for even more time - until calmer waters are closer in sight for the whole market.

It's the like of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) and samarium-cobalt (SmCo) types, that enables a wide range of defense capabilities, (magnets?)

So nothing in SLP's production used for military purposes?.... Thought Rh might have been used.

" Africa is emerging as a potential source of rare earth minerals for the United States, which reportedly has only about two months’ worth of the critical materials left in its defence stockpile as the war with Iran intensifies, making access to new supply sources increasingly urgent. "

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/botswana-south-africa-and-drc-on-standby-as-reports-show-us-has-only-two-months-worth/l8t4fjt

-------

The above doesn't appear to fit with the price performance of late???

Looks like the auditors (FORVIS MAZARS!) are the main culprits here – as they’ve been making a career out of dodgy audits, that border on the fraudulent/criminal spectrum.

They may not be entirely to blame as it raises the question: Who on the board of MEGP sourced these wasters and for what purposes did they engage such well-known, dodgy Dell-boy’s?

– as I dug this lot up from a single 2 second search on Google (their automatic AI search).

If you’re shocked by what you read after this, then Google further or do some research on the auditors – don’t just take my word for it.

However, the question remains, knowing these people belong in a movie of financial fraudsters – why would person or persons within MEGP hire them? Why???

I found the following in seconds flat! - Me, an ordinary nobody investor – So why didn’t the board know, what I now share with you? –

ALL THE FOLLOWING IS COPY/PASTED DIRECT FROM THE GOOGLE SEARCH FUNCTION . . . .

“” Forvis Mazars has faced significant scrutiny regarding its audit quality in recent years, with the UK Financial Reporting Council (FRC) flagging declining performance and urging improvement.

Recent Audit Contention (Carclo plc)

• Audit Delay & Suspended Shares: In July 2025, Forvis Mazars requested additional time for its audit of Carclo plc, a technical plastics manufacturer, leading to a temporary suspension of Carclo’s shares on the London Stock Exchange.

• Resignation: Following the delays, Forvis Mazars resigned as auditor for Carclo with effect from September 16, 2025, stating it was for "commercial reasons".

Broader Audit Quality Issues

• FRC Warning (2024): The FRC warned Forvis Mazars in July 2024 to "urgently address" a decline in audit quality, with results showing only 44% of reviewed audits met expectations, down from 56% the previous year.

• Recurring Failings: The watchdog identified recurring issues in the audit of estimates, judgments, and revenue, demanding the firm "significantly enhance" its quality control procedures.

• Past Sanctions: In 2023, Mazars was fined £72,000 by the FRC for "wide-ranging" failures in a previous audit, including a failure to identify a material misstatement regarding convertible loan notes.

While Forvis Mazars has defended its performance by highlighting a 2023 audit quality transformation plan, the FRC has warned that "stronger action" may be taken if improvements are not sustained. “”

- - -

There were other separate links, below the one above, detailing the threats of legal action by the Watchdog authorities for F/Mazars incompetent work.

Some links detailed the auditors engaged inventing fake figures to complete the work.

1ups1de @ " Stockopedia has the stock @1.99 forecast. "

- - - - - -

Hi 1ups1de,

Small point of order: It could look in your post as if your posting a forecast of 199p.

I think you're quoting in $ (and also it's not Stocko's own SP opinion) - but the broker's analysts consensus forecast, as Stocko don't do SP forecasts per say.

- However, they do show the analysts consensus as $199 which your posting of just a naked 199 could inadvertently mislead posters as converted from USD to GBP that's 147p forecast for the SP - not 199p.

Of course trading reports from the SLP are all in USD denominations, however SP price in the UK is in pence.

Now that's what I call a vote of confidence and then some; over 6.6% gain today alone, for the SP is impressive (Wowee :) - for the day before some (expected) impressive H1 results are confirmed, and made official from the previously released two qtrs.

The volume was there today - so no manipulation or transitory/political manoeuvring flights fancy - as the SP was built today on some genuine buying volume :)

(By the way, the close above of 119.50 was also showing on the London Stock Exchange too, right up to approx 4:45pm, despite my live prices package stating the close was bang-on-the-nose at 120p!)

Anyway, checked again, and the London/S/Exchange had clicked over to 120p too!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SLP/sylvania-platinum-limited/company-page

So, double-checked again just before posting and 120p is still firmly on the London /S/Exchange! - Niiiiiice

Might/might not, be some natural profit-taking tomorrow, but is it time to say - Here come the 120's again? :)

. . . . (By mid-week latest?)

It could be the nudge the SP needs.

Nothing in it that couldn’t be cobbled together from both the Q1 & the Q2 updates, but more importantly there should be a line or so in the summary on performance so far this year, with a presentation the day after the H1 trading report.

And a brief update maybe, on the evolving, nanscent Thaba JV contributions?

Was hoping for a nod to that imminent expectation from the market by a bullish close to the week today, but a very lacklustre SP performance all morning until - the release of tax receipts received by the govt has exceeded budget expectations for January, plus latest retail sales are up - and the whole market lifted, taking SLP’s SP with it.

Dare I say it? – will the official H1 trading update next week shoulder-knock the SP out of its lethargy (of late) with perhaps confirmation that market guidance is still on for full delivery of prior guidance – (that a near-enough almost quadrupling of earnings over last year, for the F/Year, is still on the cards?)

Would that do it?

- Or is the dose of a cold shower that hit the precious metals industry worldwide, still holding sway, keeping metals SP’s away from closer orbit to their previous highs?

Logged in yesterday after Bangrak’s 2 posts were already online.

Must say, I’m very pleased in the first post, that his personal figures of $78m earnings for this trading year match what I’m also seeing ($78.8m).

The first post mentions that analysts / Stocko/ market guidance expectations / et al, - also confirm his $78m for earnings in ’26

A nice meeting of general consensus by all then :)

All in all, a very ‘establishment’ viewpoint – to which I currently heartily agree with.

His second post then states the concerns (rightly so) for the next year, (which most will likely share; that is until further company updates) but in doing so, warns against trusting the opinions of analysts, stocko et al.,

However, the fact that all those parties including Bangrak, are in agreement for earnings in THIS current year ending June ’26 – seems to disallow any admiration for the analysts/stocko platforms/ market guidance etc., appearing - on this occasion only - to be on course for calling a realistic earnings valuation.

Not that we should expect them to continue in that vein, but stocks like SLP with minimal analyst coverage will always suffer from a lack of accurate consensus; so it’s always a case of buyer/holders beware when there’s only a tiny interest from brokers-analyst coverage.

. . . According to the US financial media and now the BBC Business news too.

This from the BBC yesterday:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87r2700dq8o

– But scroll down to the subheading of:

“Why has the price of gold and silver fallen in recent days?”

And the person named in the second paragraph (Kevin Warsh) is the catalyst/reason why!

Trump had a couple of yes-men names to replace the current Fed Chairman - supine names who had vowed to reduce interest rates (to placate Trump's angry rage against the current Fed Charman) and surprisingly he has passed on the lickspittle candidates, and chosen a much-respected candidate held in high regard by Wall Street.

Hence the drop in gold and precious metals, and most notably silver and Platinum as the market now expect interest rates to drop in June, and by extension they reckon the fearful rush into gold/metals etc., will abate.

Here’s a snippet on the same subject matter, from the US financial media ie., IBDaily – “Stocks Fall After Trump Fed Pick”

So, in summary, the selection of a highly regarded candidate as the new Fed chairman, who was already predisposed to desire an interest rate cut, has been interpreted by the market as a rate cut in June, hence stocks should rise – by money moving out of fear stocks/ (precious metals) and into less volatile instruments.

I have my own personal view (for instance gold had risen for 7 straight days (record straight run for any instrument without a down day).

However, Friday itself was well over a stonking 9% fall in gold!) but that is unimportant for this post - as the US market is now in the belief that a change of Fed Chairmen will reduce interest rates – and it’s that consensus belief that set the tone on precious metals etc., yesterday.

Only bought in to this stock very recently (Dec 11th'25) and it's up 45%!

(Bet that's dwarfed by some of you longer term holders :)

" Full year net profit 2025 likely 200m +. We will know for sure in a few weeks."

= = = = =

Er... 'A few weeks'?

A few months more like - as in APRIL.

Geezalou! Out of time: Wanted to ruminate on the Q2 revenue and Net Profit - but that will have to wait for another day.

Pre Thaba JV expectations – before the first productions were produced there were just analysts jam-tomorrow-guesstimates

( ie., Today, the Q2 update is the very first trading report ever, to contain actual physical contributions from Thaba – and even they will be incomplete until full production is “ramped-up” to maximum capacity).

So, the following are what I could unearth on what analysts HAD been expecting from Thaba until today - before they had any inkling of what could be produced - in reality.

These are the current 'old' pre-Q2 Thaba JV estimates I could find:

* Current analysts Estimates –

(I read of a 9% contribution from Thaba to SLP’s revenue/ earnings a year or two back)

* From another source of Thaba JV to contribute 13.7% of Sylvania’s combined EBITDA for this trading FY’26 (And 25% towards combined revenue)

* And steady state by Q2 or Q3 for FY ‘26

* Earnings per share Thaba to contribute 29% to 33% for FY ‘26

* Longer term approx 35% of SLP’s entire EBITDA will be generated/contributed from Thaba by the early 2030’s

- - - -

Well the steady state by Q2 or Q3 guess is looking like wishful thinking now, as that’s been answered in today’s Q2 update.

It’s been revealed that Q2 has not yet reached steady state and a review is being undertaken to be revealed during Q3 on what’s needed to get Thaba ramped-up to steady state production.

The rest of the analysts guesstimates will probably be updated, but again the production from Thaba to date is so scant, as to make any meaningful estimates of any kind – but no doubt the analysts will make them regardless.

I regard the Thaba JV as just an added bonus whatever its contribution to SLP’s bottom line turns out to be.

So treat any online/magazine journo's estimates of contributions from Thaba with caution - as no one has any inkling yet - until the full ramp-up is actually achieved.