Member Info for Velo

Hi Sageman,

Just popped back to query your post when I saw ME01's post.

I had forgot to query the rather high industry P/E 25 with you.

However, I think ME01 has it.

He recommends PE15 and I've just returned to post my findings which are in line with the P/E 15 already mentioned.

My data is currently showing a median P/E 15.4 for the Mining and Metals industry.

Your PE 25 made me query the results so googled and Google's AI assistant came up with P/E 14.

Mind you the all knowing, all seeing AI prefaced it's results with an admission of "According to data from Simply Wall Street" What?!?

Well what a lazy AI, Google employs :) :)

So I'll ignore AI on this occasion and go with my own data of 15.4 and ME01's of 15.

My question was going to be about the higher PE ratio of 25 in your post. Anyway 20's+ is okay for a rapid growth stock which GGP has now become, but that makes it (on PE terms) not at the forefront of the rest of the industry, but lagging it. Early days for GGP and established PE's anyway :)

.

Thanks, Acechaser, Aquakidd & Doozer77.

Sageman, I'm seeing the forward PE ratio a smidgen under 23 @ P/E 22.9 on the current year's market guidance which puts nearly 90% of the Metals and miners industry ahead of GGP.

Mind you, I derive my base data ultimately from Refinitiv and I know they haven't adjusted their figures yet to accommodate the H1 results in relation to the current expected full year guidance. So perhaps in a day or two there might be an adjustment from them?

.

Although my data source was only 1 day out on when to expect the RNS H1 results, I was still late reading the RNS this morning, as decided to chill with other chores to attend to.

Anyway, even though I wasn’t surprised by the roaring success of the H1 results, I had held back from forming an opinion on what the H1 Revenue and bottom line Net profit would be, as calculating from the January update of the tremendous production from the 27 days of Telfer’s December contribution was exceeding all expectations and feared I must be in error. Especially as SD had said not to go thinking every month would produce identical results (but I did :) Hence my amazement at what could be possible. Didn’t trust my own calcs so waited it out. And the first hope was realised with the top line coming in with an historic H1 achievement revenue of £8.291m!

At last - GGP becomes a producer with actual revenue! And leaves the explorer tag behind as it moves up a notch to producer. With SD saying the Telfer costs for December would be excluded from the H1 result I was confused what to expect for the bottom line Net Profit, so was more than pleased with the unusual situation of more bottom line Net Profit of £18m than came in the front door in revenue. (That’s a first for me in all the years I’ve been investing :)

Anyway the point of this post is to highlight the increasing market guidance of the full year trading expectations - and also the following year.

The full year ending in 4 months time is for a staggering revenue (in comparison to the H1 result) in the region of £411m!

What a difference from now on, compared to the previous years of endless zero’s for that entry.

And the Net Profit the market guidance for this year is expected to be circa £102m! So this year-end will provide enough full data results to compare GGP’s trading/income/cash/balance sheet metrics to all other stocks, and to at last get a real handle on the true value of the SP. And that will be a genuine leap forward in valuing GGP for investors as the stock moves out of speculation to actual hard results.

Next year has been increased too. Year ending June ‘26 is expected to achieve Revenue of £540m! And Net Profit of £151m! That means from next year, revenue will show results in serious fractions of part-billions! ie., half a £billion for ‘26 - What a jump from last year’s and all prior years of absolute zero’s!

So, from this year’s full results which conclude in 4 months and be received by investors sometime this November, Revenue will be mentioned as in part-billions fractions, and as time passes, billions :)

Now that’s what I call hitting the big time as GGP becomes the definition of: From zero to hero.

Absolutely historic and and game changing H1 result!

Proof positive that the (huge) market guidance is on track for the full year result to come later this year, is on course.

For the very first time ever, Revenue has ceased the year after year reporting of zero revenue and come in at the H1 with £8.291m! :)

And for the very first time ever, the company has reported Net Profit of £18m!!! :)

(Will have to read further to see how the bottom line is greater than the top line) but there it is - The first ever ACTUAL REVENUE and the first ever ACTUAL NET PROFIT on the books.

Game changer to a healthy and profitable balance sheet from here on in!!!

:) :) :)

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" The interim results are still over two months away (14th May last year), although they did release a H1 update on 2nd April last year (an "in-line" update). Will we see the same this year? ...... "

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Pretty much.

I'm seeing the H1 Trading result publication date as May 12th. Their website allows themselves some leeway as it only commits itself to a generalised, 'May 2025'.

However the heads-up Statement Release beforehand, I'm seeing as April 1st.

So the April Statement is the one that will likely set the scene expectations-wise for the SP in the run-up to May.

(Part 2 concludes) >

The fact that Gaps close is paramount here. So, I think it will eventually return to that prior 220p, but in the meantime…?

First job is to see if the SP is hauled back somewhat away from the cliff edge, and to resist falling below the 200 day trend - which is more or less given fractions, about where the SP is just about right now, as I post. No lower should be the expectations, to safely regard it all as a storm in a teacup, until it finally ceases meandering about.

Significantly lower than here would bode further indecision by the market.

So that means following the trend for evidence of a turn to this sudden dive.

Thanks jlovie, Your responses are most helpful. If I don’t grab time to post acknowledgment now, I’ll be knee deep in to weekend chores.

How very prescient of you to make a judgment call last night and begin the day prepared to capitalise on your own analysis. Good call - so far :)

If I wasn’t in a hurry this morning I would have noticed the Share News button lit up with notifications of what’s going on. However the link you provided was an excellent choice, and just the job with a v clear explanation - many thanks!

Appears the 5% (or tsk! 7% depending on which report you read first) share capital sold in one dollop was greater than market expectations. So the market’s spooked for the time being.

But what a gap down! And you know what they say about Gap-Up’s and Gap-Down’s don’t you - they always close! (Unless they’re a continuation gap). So my betting is on, that at some point in the near term, the SP will revisit back to last night’s 220p before continuing its journey.

Balance sheet is commendable, so nothing unduly concerning there. However, the Trend follower in me is committed to following the trend as a priority. And to that end a line in the link you provided is a little concerning making me wonder to expect further disarray until the market makes a decision on Montefiore’s action.

At the moment the SP is holed up with a bit of mean reversion back to the current 200 day moving average; the institutions make or break No:1 trend line. However the SP is refusing to sink below it. Although I now see it shot straight past it @ approx just after 11:00am to 194p area but has now recovered as I post to sit more or less on the 200 day trend. That’s good and a strong signal to resist further falls, but no guarantee of course.

All the long term trends are seriously bullish for MEGP so not overly concerned on the SP dropping further just yet, than this 200 day area.

That being said, here’s what rattled me in the link provided in your post (in capitals):

“ . . . ME Group, the company whose shares are being placed, will not be a party to this transaction and therefore will not receive any proceeds from the sale. Following the completion of the placement, Montefiore will enter a 45-day lock-up period for its remaining shares in ME Group, during which it will not be able to sell additional shares without Berenberg’s consent, barring certain exceptions.

The impact of this transaction on ME Group’s share price and market position will be closely watched by INVESTORS AND MARKET ANALYSTS ALIKE. “

And that to me, means sentiment towards MEGP will be under the microscope.

And sentiment = Share Price!

The fact that Gaps close is paramount here. So, I think it will eventually return to that prior 220p, but in the meantime…?

First job is to see if the SP is hauled back somewh

- Oops ran out of space Part 2 follows >>>

Title: Phtm

Mark as important: ×

Remarks: Took profits on this last year (more fool me as it rose far further than I expected, so kept it on watchlist with a view to re-entering) and noticed the huge drop in the SP today. Thought maybe XD or something.

Surprised to see lack of posts on here as was looking for info. Checked RNS even though the retrace is not enough to merit a profit warning - and there wasn't one. Nor is it a reaction to the Trading results as that would have occurred earlier. .

But there is an RNS advising a placement seller cashing in.

So has there been some fundraising by the company via placements? If so there's usually a legally binding contract preventing them from selling before 6 months have expired.

But placements and Rights Issues always dilute shareholders SP to a lower rerating.

Well behind in my knowledge of PHTM/MEGP so if any posters about - do you have any info on why today's unusual heavy pullback in the SP so far?

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I am of course referring to the RNS trading update to be published next Monday March 3rd, revealing the H1 trading results. (Hoping I’ve got the right date?)

I’m looking forward to it, as I expect it to be the commencement of a significant improvement on all previous trading updates that have gone before.

Took affirmative action (again) this morning after years of avoidance and topped-up bringing my average SP down to a more manageable 14p area (previously 20p legacy from my 2020 gold buying mania year) also did the same in my larger account in prior weeks (hence affirmative action; makes me sound as if I know what I’m doing :) Bringing that average down to the 13’s area from a previous 18p.

At this point, a stock market old-salt refrain comes to mind that runs:

“Bulls make profit, And Bears make profit,

- but pigs get slaughtered!”

And hoping that doesn’t make me a greedy pig by including my topping-up tranches after such a disastrous entry back in 2020.

Felt sure that the low 8p’s would hold today as support. So disappointed to see sub 8p appear on screen this afternoon. Didn’t think 7’s would get a look-in again.

It’s always recommended to buy after a trading update, and never before an imminent update, so broke my own checklist rules yet again.

Whatever, I’m upbeat about the forthcoming H1 on Monday. Just didn’t expect this pullback in the week before it is due to be released. As the CEO revealed back in January, Telfer only became active from December 4th, so only 27 days of that contribution has a chance of adding to the 6 month H1 trading period ending Dec 31st.

Along with the H1 result, the in-profit for the very first time, January and February production £figures will also be to hand, so a general nod to those figures from the CEO in the same update, should set the sentiment tone for the rest of the year.

And if the SP is still behaving in a slipshod way, then based on the market guidance figures, the full year results ending June this year will blow any doubt and market indifference out of the water. Now of that I am sure.

I just hope that’s not the greedy pig in me talking though :)

( Concludes Part 2 ) >

. . . As my self imposed 5 year jail sentence is not due for parole until the summer of ‘26 I have no issues holding on for yet a further 5 years if necessary, if the SP hovers below my new 8p area for an extended period - so “only” 55% down now as opposed to 77% down or so, before the top-up.

So, I’m keen to see if the power issues will deeply affect the market guidance for which I’m seeing as a tremendous improved performance, if achieved -

Revenue for last year ending June ‘24 was $205m

Revenue for this year ending June ‘25 is guided to expect $279m !

Revenue for next year ending June ‘26 is guided to expect $313m !!

And the bottom line -

Net Profit for last year ending June ‘24 was a terrible $5.95m :(

Net Profit for this year ending June ‘25 is guided to expect $23.4m !

Net Profit for next year ending June ‘26 is guided to expect $34.8m !! :) :)

- But how much ground has to be made up after the unexpected lost production et al, just to come near, to be in line with market guidance?

well not another additional investor like nicetomichu’s post, since i’ve maintained a holding here since the summer of ‘21. never posted here at all, but trying some affirmative action to ‘get out from under’, by topping-up today; the first in over 3 & half years!

can’t be the only one trying to get out from under :)

was hung up high from those days at 18/19p - or are the majority here recent holders and only a little under water?

anyway, a little later that year i experimented with not checking my portfolio every 10 minutes and tried holding for a year before re-balancing but the next year was 2022, and a worldwide slump in stocks ensued and for some like jlp (and slp, ggp) those sp’s just haven’t ceased falling ever since.

these days i have a weekend every month-end to spreadsheet the hell out of my portfolios - (takes ages) to ensure i haven’t strayed to far from my investing checklist metrics!)

warren buffett says if you’re not prepared to hold a stock for 5 years then you shouldn’t buy it in the first place! although i don’t subscribe to that long term mantra, i readily adopted it as a comfort blanket whilst this sp tanked incessantly.

(or my favourite :) from an old time american vaudeville music hall stand-up comic told his audience who had lived through the recent 1929 crash: if you buy a stock that goes up, sell it quick for a profit. if it still doesn’t go up - don’t buy it!)

however it’s debatable if the sp could now increase 5 times in the next 5 years just to get back to get my initial ‘21 investment funds back.

so, purchased a double quantity of my initial holding today (now dirt cheap) thus tripling my ‘21 holding. which means my average of 18.3p holding has now drop-averaged to fractions over 8p+ which i am mightily relieved at.

now, instead of needing the sp to *****uple from today’s sp before recovering my investment, it “only” has to double in price (no mean feat for any stock).

small mercy’s - the sp closed fractionally higher than i bought earlier today too :)

as the h1 trading update is published in 10 days time, (24th february?) that means i’ve already broken an old market refrain of:

“never buy just before a trading update is imminent,

- and if selling, always sell before an imminent trading update is due”.

then there’s the q3 trading update to follow circa mid april.

the half year reveal on the 24th will reveal what damage has seeped through from the recent power/production failures and the q3 in april should give a clearer view of the upbeat comment from the ceo since the recent latest setbacks.

as my self imposed 5 year jail sentence is not due for parole until the summer of ‘26 i have no issues holding on for yet a further 5 years if necessary, if the sp hovers below my new 8p area for an extended period - so “only” 55% down now as opposed to 77% down or so, before the top-up.

- oops too long . . . so part 2 follows >

Hi StevieW,

Thanks for that, I can confirm that none of my holdings have their bare naked rrrs hanging out the carriage window, but to escape capital gains tax, are all in a couple of ISA's and my main SIPP portfolio.

Yes a contrarian view if well researched can pay dividends (pardon the pun :) as it's often said that to make significant gains that the majority don't - you have to invest the opposite to what the majority would do . ie., Buy when they sell and sell when they buy :)

Part 2 concludes -

- - - - - -

. . . . So to keep an open mind, both your scenarios could play out because the research data is not absolute but instead talks of “statistically insignificant”, in worst case scenarios and the best course sentence by the UK researcher is that “most do recover after 12 months”. So some do the opposite to the majority, and recover later/earlier? Yes?

There’s other stuff about the preceding 6 months BEFORE the Profit warning is issued, but that was offered as an “observation”. And in RNWH’s case the preceding 6 months doesn’t quite fit perfectly with that observation about a poorly performing SP beforehand - I could make a case to curve-fit the full prior 6 months, but it wasn’t offered by the other researches papers, so I will add that to your belief that RNWH may not behave similarly to other stocks issuing similar profit warnings.

There, that’s as fair as I can be to entertain the validity of your ‘I disagree’ views :)

Hi Rich & Guitarsolo,

Feel free to disagree G/Solo :)

All the content is not my personal research but comes from research papers from here in the UK, on the continent, and from the US. (The US was the dullest to read as can be hard to decipher some of the terms used by these university maths types). However years of my following up on that research checks out on all fronts.

Also may I ask; have either of you had any hard-won experience of any stock in your portfolio publishing a Profit Warning?

I’m also, happy to disagree with your excellent points, as the market has heard it all before. The more it’s presented as just a minor reduction on prior guidance the more the market prices in the risk of a further profit warning as CEO’s can be reluctant to tell the full state of affairs on the first telling. It’s then you get further updates with terms like unforeseen ‘headwinds’ since the last update etc.,

Above all, the observation given by the UK researchers was that for complete safety, risk averse investors are best advised to consider investing after a full 12 months has elapsed. So, I may miss out on the floor but after the full 12 months expires, the market is less likely to continue with de-rateing the SP.

So in reply to Rich62, I don’t have to invest for 12 months as IMO not a lot of excitement will come the SP’s way. However, if the fancy takes hold of what appears to be a genuine low point, then a modest first tranche can be made - but I have a year to see if opposite views hold the day - or whether the long term systematic research holds water. To that end I will offer some consolation to support both your views and analysis.

- Checked up on that almost forgotten stock I mentioned previously of Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) and found that it, never ever, recovered and has lost 99% of it’s value - over several profit warning alerts - from £36 down to circa 50 pence!

That’s 9 years of falling! That’s not supposed to happen despite multiple profit warnings from them.

The research does say most companies recover after 12 months from the Profit Warning, and that companies going into liquidation, are “Statistically insignificant”. Now that’s not the same as they never do! Some must - in order to say it’s so small a risk as to be considered an insignificant risk.

Therefore, the reverse must also be true if most companies SP becomes ‘unreliable’ for the following 12 months, then the corollary of most companies is that some DO escape under the net!

So to keep an open mind, both your scenarios could play out because the research data is not absolute but instead talks of “statistically insignificant”, in worst case scenarios and the best course sentence by the UK researcher is that “most do recover after 12 months”. So some do the opposite to the majority, yes?

There’s other st

- oops ran out of space again, had to cut - so part 2 concludes next >>

For info only -

Pleased I decided to have a go at trading my way out of trouble ( my post below) in a stock that’s been in a down trend for years. So far so good. Done it in the past on 2 or 3 other stocks, but only retrieved partial back of their pull backs before getting out. So if this comes off, as I want my Holding SP lower before it goes on a real bull run, I will use it more regularly.

Despite holding this stock since late 2021 and after including it in a blind buy and hold strategy to give that strategy one last chance (which failed spectacularly) you have to buy and hold the ‘right’ stocks, and that’s the quest of all investors:)

So my initial buy was in the £20+ area back in the day. As 2022 was a worldwide bear year, until the final weeks of that year, the damage set in further, and hasn’t let up since. So years later in 2023 I topped up and brought my average down to the £13+ area.

When the SP rose past my last buy point I sold that same amount. Now I had holdings in the SP area of £13, and my additional money safely back in my account as if it had never been touched in the first place.

Price kept dropping so earlier this month I did another buy (and then the sell this morning @ 442p at 10:01am) for a nice little profit on the sell. The buy lowered my holding average to £8.90 odd.

As I only wanted my spare £funds back, I sold shares only to the monetary value of the additional funds, hence my last buy meant two things -

1)

GOT my ‘play’ funds back out and in to the cash column and ended up with a tiny amount of more shares than before I sold - only a very few more shares as didn’t want to risk losing out waiting for this uptrend to cease and catch me out at a later date.

And 2)

So my average sits at £8.90 yet by returning all my play funds back into the cash column, I have slightly more shares at £8.90 each, and ready for the next buy and sell to bring them down further. But it means buying the same amount or doubling the holding amount to make a difference. Not a biggie when the SP has cratered down from the £20+ area back in the day, but too much if a stock has only retraced a little over the years. Easier on massive big retraces.

Should this be the floor I can add without unnecessary fear as the divi is holding for this trading year. Will hope to bring my average down further but will need a little pullback if fortune favours me, to do that, and sell ONLY if/when the SP rises.

Only need a small rise after buying, to provide a cushion to absorb costs and margin, as only want my top-up play funds back - not my initial 2021 funds.

Using a couple of trend following and contrarian tools to assist, whilst awaiting to see if the floor is in.

What I’ve done is defo not a recommendation - but it works for me.

And who knows - if the SP just keeps on rebuilding I will just keep the added funds and enjoy the rising SP - and the dividends too.

Hope the above not too garbled.

Quick post in case the SP is a distance away before I reveal all and lose credability over an earlier SP.

Traded Lio today, even though like most others I'm deep under water here. However I intend trading my way into a profitable state of affairs or failing that a very reasonable holding state of affairs.

Yes, I wouldn't rule out the £8 SP area at all, but I personally believe the £9 area will prove to be out of bounds for the entirety of 2025.

Should the SP ever break through the SP of the low £9 area on the close of the day before the Profit Warning, then I would gave to admit the research now has whiskers and accept it us out if date.

" PS. I have personally lived through all the above actions, and profited most times with only one failing to recover, instead it eventually changed it’s name but never appeared to do much and have lost touch with it. That stock I did not invest in, but monitored it fully."

- - - - - -

PS. Ooh the years pass; should keep notes :)

- Yes! I did buy that Profit Warning-Hit stock, but only held v briefly (couple of weeks) for a 20%+ gain. But continued monitoring it.

It was Provident then it rebranded as Vanquis Banking Group. (2018 thereabouts I think?)

Ooops, bit fell off the end -

- - - - - - - -

. . . Saw the SP at 700p on screen the first morning but was speed reading other stuff, so it didn’t trigger in my consciousness immediately, as I wasn’t hot to buy in January. If I’d been free today but was elsewhere all day there was a second chance dip into the 690’s - (might /might not be others ;) I would have placed my first tranche order, saving my gunpowder for other subsequent lows.

And that’s the number one issue for all this year - right through until January 2026! The SP after a Profit Warning-hit stock, is described in numerous research papers as quote: “Unreliable for approx a year”.

So avoid posts of this-is-going-back-up-for-good-it-was-only-a-blip.

And just as contrarian be aware of scaredy cat posts proclaiming this has got much further to fall. Neither view point is valid. Again, for 12 months the SP is likely to prove just so - unreliable! It will look like it is rising fast back on its feet, whilst on other occasions inexplicably, it will look like a dead dog. It’s unlikely to please anyone.

One thing from direct personal experience - and not mentioned in research papers at all in profit-hit stocks - is this ….

- Whatever the SP was the night before the the Profit Warning was issued the next morning, the SP will never reach that SP again before a full year has passed.

And that was circa 909p wasn’t it? Well, feggedit for a year :(

After the year is up? Well it’s open to debate as the second year is usually a recovery year!

So that brokerage house analyst’s £13? Feggedit! (I mean forget it for all of 2025 only. After Jan 2026, drinks at the bar will be open again :)

- - - - - - -

Don’t intend posting regularly on here; so relax if you disagree with the above. (Might post any buys/sells I make though).

PS. I have personally lived through all the above actions, and profited most times with only one failing to recover, instead it eventually changed it’s name but never appeared to do much and have lost touch with it. That stock I did not invest in, but monitored it fully.

If anyone’s unsure, be in no doubt that a Profit Warning WAS issued!

- And that has consequences!

Have had this stock on a watch list for some time, as bumped into it over the years and regretted not researching it further. This is the kind of retrace that I’ve held it on a watch-list, for. Will choose my buy point but no space in this post for personal decisions. Instead I will skim across the most obvious consequences.

Researchers have revealed that on the day of the profit warning (can see how some might have been unsure due to the irrelevant comment by the CEO of - ‘Well it won’t be less than last year’s earnings anyway!’

That IS irrelevant!

The market values RNWH on its market guidance, not on last year’s nice accounts!

If unsure about an RNS being a profit warning, researchers have revealed that if the SP falls deeply on the day of the announcement by a minimum of 14% in one day, then it meets the criteria. Personally I’m only ever used to seeing 20% to 40% falls in one day, whilst investors debate on the merits of such RNS’s. This stock fell 21%/nearly 22% on the day, didn’t it?

Your plan of action is/(was for option 1) based on 3 options.

Option 1 is to short the stock from the opening - if you happened to read the RNS before 8:00am. Few do, due to work commitments etc., (No longer an option after the first day).

Option 2 is to realise that all successful companies will inevitably hit an industry wide, down cycle and is beyond the control of previously successful companies, so investors can either buy on all the dips to come, or conversely -

Option 3, Sell as early and as fast as possible on the day, invest elsewhere, and come back in 12 months to pick up cheaper.

Well, 4 options really and that is to sit tight for 12 months and do nothing.

And the reason is because profit warning stocks now remain with an “unreliable” SP for a full 12 months after the announcement. After the year is up they often go on, in the year after, to outperform the main market by 10% above the market average. So if in the full second year, the market produces say an overall 5% gain then the Profit warning-hit stock often goes on to produce a circa 5.5% gain.

A common myth is that profit warnings like buses & come in three’s. That is highly unlikely. Most only issue the one profit warning. I do have the percentage likelihood of stocks that go on to produce 2 profit warnings, or 3 or 4 warnings. The percentage of companies that go on to produce more than one profit warning is very small indeed, and contrary to what you might think the risk of a company going to the wall no matter how many warnings are issued, is statistically so small as to be “irrelevant”.

Saw the SP at 700p on screen the first morning but was speed reading other stuff, so it didn’t trigger in my consciousness immediately, as I wasn’t hot to buy in January. If I’d been free today but was elsewhere all day there was a seco