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(Part 2 concludes -)

Quick Recap now of GGP’s losses and Zero revenue for many a year to now disapear and almost instantly reappear, as of now, to talking of part £billions in revenue!

H1 wont be sizeable part billions of course, but many millions to compare against zero revenue and losses in the past.

Consider:

Revenue for the past half dozen years or so from 2019 to June 2024 was a total of ZERO for each and every single year.

Which of course meant exploration costs went straight to the bottom line showing increasing losses year by year as follows -

Net Profit? 2019 = x£3.26m LOSS

Net Profit? 2020 = x£5.14m LOSS

Net Profit? 2021 = x£5.52m LOSS

Net Profit? 2022 = x£11.4m LOSS !

Net Profit? 2023 = x£21.10m LOSS !!!

Net Profit? 2024 = x£14.90m LOSS !!

So historically not a single penny in revenue and zero income, due to increasing losses ie., increasing debt.

So what is the market guidance for this current year ending June ‘25?

2025 Revenue the market is expecting £407m !!!

2025 Net Profit the market is expecting £94m !!!

If you weren’t aware of the market guidance expectations go on say it :)

- Bl@@dy L!!!

From zero to hero. Something for a certain poster on here to tell his wife from the first hint of that on March 3rd, eh? :) :) :)

______________

But wait, it gets better, What’s the market outlook for next year, trading year ending June 2026?

2026 Revenue is guided to expect £490m !!!!

- (And there’s that £10m short of half a £billion in annual revenue figure :)

2026 Net Profit is guided to expect £125m !!!!

No wonder the talk is of updates ‘maybe’ every other week from now on :)

Let the market have kittens over the SP. All you have to do is wait until the upcoming March 3rd H1 release, and the first profitable performance ever, in GGP’s history should be showing up, of what lies ahead.

Going to leave other metrics out of this post as it’s long enough posts for now

Before continuing I should first explain I first invested in GGP back in 2020.

After sitting on a size-able paper profit I then commenced imitating a rabbit caught in the headlights-type-of-investing-stance.

Did nothing.

And got run over - as the SP crashed around my ears into a stonking paper loss. Have forgiven myself though. Don’t need to make a profit here. Just getting my stake back will increase my portfolios considerably. However, will run with the trend this time, not gaze on impudently. So should fortune hand me back my stake, I won’t become “Overhead Resistance” (a danger awaiting all veteran holders of several years here, who are also under a lorra, lorra, water).

Rarely posted here as found the emotional sentiments on this forum too volatile. So sat it out. Only posting now, as I can appreciate big changes are afoot with Donald Trump-like pardons about to be handed out right left and centre in the near term future to all those of us under deep water.

Enough, onwards! . . . :)

First up, the H1 trading result is due to be published in 5 weeks or so, on March 3rd (Can’t confirm it on GGP’s site as they aren’t displaying it. So safer really to say sometime in March).

Here’s the thing - According the Youtube video interview with the CEO, he revealed the first ever production of gold’n’copper with tremendous amounts of gold ounces already to hand “in the past month”.

I may have got confused converting it to grams as the conversion sites demanded that. Didn’t know the carat value so chose lowly scrap value gold 9 carat value - the lowest price - and still - it blew my socks off when I multiplied it by 12 months. Was shocked by the result! Talking in fractions of £billions in revenue not mere millions. From years and years of zero nothing!

However, dragged up the market guidance expectations for ‘25 and next year ‘26.

- And knock me over with a feather, but near half a £billion revenue for ‘26 - and current year ending in June ‘25 = £407 million in revenue!

So not quite half a billion, but f/year ‘25 to be achieved effectively in all but 6 months flat! (Will dig out those market guidance figures in a moment).

He did say ‘only in the last month’. Further on he praises the new Telfer acquisition that’s made this possible but results in a ‘short quarter ‘ contribution as only under their control since Dec 4th ‘24. When he said achieved in 27 days it was clear this trading update was referring to the imminent H1 result that terminated on Dec 31st. So that means the revenue /or assets (assets if held rather than sold to clients from those 27 days) will be included into the imminent H1 result on March 3rd!

Oops ran out of space so [

(Part 2 follows >>>)

Well personally, I was looking for only a smidgen close higher of a further half’penny up, at 7.9p - Why?

Because 7.9p is the nearest significant prior-high. It must be taken down, as just like walking upstairs it’s the very first step on the stairs to achieve a higher continuance - just to see if it has the legs or failing that, to see if it’s just another failed break-out attempt. After a single day rise of 22% on Wed, was it greedy expecting complete several pence higher rise today? Even though it did do just such a big rise back in November ‘24 under similar circumstances.

Need verifiable, audited, profitable results on paper (see next post) as unaudited, bullish verbal promises from the company, will only go so far for the market, and hence dilly-dallying SP. Not long to wait for that though; March 3rd should kick things off beyond question. ( Approx just 5 weeks away; should be a game-changer day! :)

At tonight’s close the fairest thing to say/observe is that nothing’s been confirmed except that short term trend metrics are still agitating to the upside. Give the SP time to consolidate first, before the next big push. That sub-8p hill can be attacked another day; wasn’t a must-have to be achieved by today. Having said that, I won’t be surprised if the SP gives up half of Wednesday’s gain in zig zagging moves over the next several days/weeks, with one caveat, just so long as it’s not much deeper than half that big Wed gain - and it could still be seen as bullishly trending, IMO.

Who knows for sure - it may continue the fight upwards tomorrow, regardless?

Today’s volume was still greater than any day in the entire past 4 years and only challenged by the record breaking volume back in 2020. (An early poster this morning suggested volume was down but incredibly that poster took his reading at approx 10:30am - a misleading part-day thing to do. Only the total end of day volume is worthy of consideration. And that volume today is circa 54.8 million shares traded!

Completely and utterly right in the centre of this now record-matching volume (That's since Sept/Oct of ‘24 through to currently) unseen since the big days right back in 2020! This has not been a low volume day!

Now trawl back every single day from before Sept/Oct of last year, back for 4 years and see if you find any day higher (you won’t). However, the SP still has to prove itself as only the shorter term trends have turned bullish. Need more days trending at these elevations.

(Review of P&L Acc’s etc post, up next >>>)

Newtothis123 @

"Can someone tell me in layman terms, why the SP has risen so much, but yet there has been more sells than buys."

-------------

Hi Newt,

It's because the buys and sells are mostly inaccurate. The total volume for the day IS accurate. Hence every professional source/trader in the world only ever mentions the most reliable indicator of the day - volume!

The exchange computers can only "guess" which trade matches a buy or sell based solely on price. In such a fast moving day, many trades are not matched until the end of the day under the heading of 'Uncrossed Trades' (UT).

Just checked on volume to add to this post and was taken aback at what I saw.

As expected, the day's volume is higher compared to last summer.

Then I noticed the volume wasn't just extremely high - but had been at record highs since last October - and not let up, and is still not letting up currently!

Curious I started checking back and could find no day or month where the volume was higher than this period from Oct '24 to today.

So checked 2023 - same - lower volume back then, than this last 3 or 4 months.

2022 - Volume back then still lower than this current period.

2021 - Same again.

The SP's back then although steadily falling - were double what the SP is today!

2020 - and here's the shock, by the end of 2020 the SP had reached an all time high (and where many of us are hoisted up from back in the day) and is the only period in the past 4 or 5 years that is equal to this current period for volume!

Am gobsmacked!

Very early 2020 only, and yes volume exceeds this period - in advance of the big SP rise to come, but only for the first month or two. Volume matches today's volume for the rest of that year until it begins tapering off by the year's end.

All of a sudden this simple post to reply to your buys/sells takes on another shape.

For instance the record volume back in early 2020, slopes off a little by the end of 2020, and when the SP reached record highs in the 30's by the end of 2020, the SP then promptly descends badly from the start of 2021

- And the volume? It commences falling before the descending SP gathers pace that has endured from that date right through the years - until a massive increase in October 2024. Now that big record breaking volume is back again.

That sounds like the 'smart money', or some sort of prior knowledge.

That same big volume has been apparent continuously since last October and continuing through to currently.

In other words, as spectacular as that massive SP increase has been today, large amounts of volume has been pouring into GGP ahead of this announcement/rise today.

? ? ?

How did 'they' know in advance?

Lot of posts on here highlighting the potential for a take-over. Assumed they were just musings without foundation. Didn't find any talk of LIO as a target for a takeover - however, I then noticed an analyst’s review of LIO in which the analyst mentioned the recent increased holding of Impax Asset Management by LIO; in which he went to on to recommend that a merger with Impax would be a far better fit for LIO as it would improve LIO’s diversification.

So had a look at Impax, and it’s suffering the same long term decline in the SP as LIO. However it has a far better looking balance sheet, much healthier with greater improving earnings - and without LIO’s total loss last year!

Cash rich too, like LIO. And as a poster said on that page, their dividend has now increased to a 12% yield per year!

I like it.

Found an RNS update on the Impax page here on LSE, dated just days ago, advising that LIO had increased it’s stake in Impax so that it now exceeded the 13% holding in Impax and therefore it was required to legally notify the market publicly as LIO now had material voting rights which could affect Impax materially. At that news I scooted back to this page and not a mention in the RNS’s of their new increased Impax holding. Have I missed it, came out Jan 7th on IPX’s RNS.

Hmm… Back to that analyst who concluded on LIO:

“… it does still have a profit margin and it is cheap, but it’s certainly not the first fund management stock I’d be adding to my portfolio.”

Personally I prefer Impax’s balance sheet over LIO’s - it has a superior ROE (my fav) and similar/more high quality metrics than LIO - and a 12% divi!

(And no hint of an outright loss that LIO suffered last year.

So, ran a comparison test. And out of 37 balance sheet metrics (and just as I suspected) the computer rates IPX th better performer than LIO - it came second winning only 16 out of 37 metrics - but Impax came out the winner beating LIO by winning 21 out of 37 metrics.

Have run out of time tonight, and tied up tomorrow but can try put up the full comparison metrics if someone requests to see the data.

Final point about LIO - found this aggressively bullish statement by the CEO back in November - “ The Directors intend to target a dividend of at least 72 pence per share for the year ending 31 March 2025. “

** “At least!” **

So that answers that query in no uncertain terms! :)

Second day, of the SP intra-daying into the 300 area.

For 4 years the dividend has remained steadfastly at 72p per annum.

The SP peaked At an ATH in Sept of 2020 (approx 2500p+ area).

From that date on, it then commenced descending from which it has not ceased doing so, right through to to this day. And yet the BOD have never wavered in being tempted to cut the dividend. At today’s close that renders the forward dividend yield of now a smidgen under 17% if a new investor purchased today, based on the forward market consensus guidance for revenue and earnings. However, since yesterday some analysts have commenced lowering their forecasts as unlikely to be attained after seeing the trading update.

Clearly any company offering a near 17% dividend yield is an unsustainable proposition for the longer term if its earnings guidance to the market are not met. If the dividend is cut, then the talk won’t be of: Will the SP start visiting the 300’s more often now?

- But more like: Will it the SP start visiting the 200’s more often?

- as the dividend yield is the only thing keeping me invested with LIO.

Here’s a direct quote from yesterday by one of the analysts, (Capital) :

“ In addition, a further delay in flows recovery may necessitate a cut to dividend per share. Given these challenges, we see limited scope for its price-to-earnings valuation discount versus the peer group to close in the near-term, and we therefore initiate at underperform.”

Although it must be said never base decisions on a single analyst’s evaluation but rather the whole collective, consensus view of all the analysts covering LIO.

Whilst the company did reveal that AUM declined by 5.3% for Q3 the CEO remained overtly bullish for the year. I read into that, it was unlikely they would be entertaining thoughts of cutting the dividend. Not a hint of it, anywhere - yet there are paragraphs in the trading update, of the deep cost cutting exercises now being examined by the company.

- But absolutely no mention of a cut to the dividend (whilst Capital analysts intimated a dividend cut may now be a possibility) you can draw your own conclusions about the management if they should go on to introduce a dividend cut, as that’s the only thing keeping me invested whilst the company sorts itself out.

“Hi Thanks for that Velo , very interesting. Why do you think last years 2nd half earnings were so abysmal. I think you stated, H1 last year delivered £844m net profit , and H2 delivered just 11 million. How is this possible?”

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -

Hi Phatkatzout,

That’s a very good question!

Was hoping someone else who was around at the time, might know, but have been googling and googling, and reading prior years RNS’s – and nothing. I don’t know.

Previous years net profit seems pretty close between H1 and H2 periods. Not too close and never just paltry double figures like £11m.

Previous years run something £800m in one half and £600m+ in the other half, 2020 was £1bn in H1 and £666m in the second half year, the largest difference recently. However, in all years the lower period was always several hundred £million.

Not one instance of just £11m period as was shown for H2 last year. Checked the year end RNS and even though it shows net profit down with 55% for the full year, displaying in brackets - there’s no comment about it. (55% down because the year prior to that was £1.9b net profit!)

I did see in the full year report for last year the CEO stating that:

“ We have recognised a non-cash impairment of goodwill allocated to Business of £488m as a specific item, reflecting a decline in profitability in recent years”, then lists several metrics before revealing only £855m net profit.

So, wondering with the lack of comment by the media et al, whether the same might occur at the last minute at the end of this current trading year, and whether that might carry on for a year or two.

Just guessing, really. I don’t know why the full year only produced £855m because of that £11m H2 period – the lowest ever!

Next Friday will be helpful as the last update on Friday of last week was showing £1.3b++ net profit and increasing for the next 2 years.

Wonder what they’ll show now that this year’s H1 has produced £755m towards that goal already?

If they show something like £766m then I’ll know there’s only another £11m for this H2 period too – but the analysts’ consensus updates haven’t so far, in any of their updates, and neither has the data I’ve received from elsewhere.

As it stands, it means a huge % increase to show for net profit as a gain over last year, by the end of this trading year. But in reality, it will only be representative of the typical comparative past several years before that £11m showed up.

Further to my post last night, I have received the first of the updated consensus estimates after the new H1 actuals are taken in to account. Don’t like what I see as it’s far too optimistic and strains the bounds of credibility, so awaiting the new BT fortnightly updates (which are free to access on BT’s own site) which are due out next Friday the 15th.

Even if they keep their original estimate forecasts and reduce by the guidance issued by the CEO stated in the H1 update, they are still likely to produce estimates that put the full year earnings well into the £1.3bn category. (Last year was a worst ever in living memory of £855m earnings).

So, a massive Y-O-Y % increase looms in BT’s favour when comparing earnings to year against year.

The media analysts are unlikely to publish actual figures in Q4 as it comes with the full year trading report – and that’s when they don’t dwell on comparisons to Last year v This year, but instead comparisons to whether the full year results are in line with market guidance, below or above.

So, you could have media reports stating BT is down 2% here and there against market guidance and they just waffle on about missing targets and the need to get on with things, and thus affecting sentiment, but this year’s earnings increase against last year’s full earnings, is on course to deliver the most astonishing % increase, you’re unlikely to see anywhere else.

- Yet, repeat: it’s possible for media reports to dwell only on say, a small miss against market guidance.

I’m of the opinion this current year’s full earnings will show net profit virtually back to normal, comparable to recent years.

So, until next Friday – Where I’m either going to be catastrophically incorrect on this, or should the new consensus estimates (post-H1) show as a bare minimum what's outlined above, then it may well change sentiment, if no unusual external forces are in play, and the gap in Thursday’s Gap-down, may will close back up.

)Part 2 Concludes)

. . . Some think that £755m is an anomaly and unlikely to be repeated in H2. Let’s see what market guidance BT and the brokers analysts produce in a week’s time then. BT is already talking of 1%/ 2% down on revenue et al for the full year – so let’s take that further and say instead of only £755m they only produce £700m? £50m less than published today – that’s still a 6,300% gain for H2 alone!

As said, currently on BT’s site they are showing market guidance of £1.3b+ net profit for this full year. I say on current performance that £1.3b is highly likely to be increased to £1.5b area (updates will be out soon in days/ a week so not long to wait).

To bring last year versus this year massive percentage gain back down to earth, that 6,000+% gain becomes a circa 54% gain when it’s full year Net profit v this year full net profit. So, bears can create about the small decreases this year H1 v H1 last year. What will they say for H2 when all BT has to beat is just £855m for last year in total? Are the bears saying it’ll be another £11m net profit in H2 this year too? Baloney – 75% increase Y-O-Y.

If the market went into manic depression (over a pre-known reduction) over H1 results, what will it do over a full year 75% gain in Net profit?

All the bears have to prove is that there’ll be no £700m+ net profit for H2. Okay, £600m then, that’s still way over a 50% gain. Anyone know any reason of why H2 net profit will only be around £11m or so just like last year?

What am I missing for net profit to show still show a reduction against last year’s paltry £855m net profit?

The percentages sound ridiculous in isolation but it’s just Net Profit reverting to its path before peak CAPEX last year. £1.3b showing currently, now out of dated to be increased a couple of hundred million, and each year a slower increase but an increase every year showing. Just a percentage anomaly.

- THAT’S IF YOU BELIEVE THAT H1 £755M NET PROFIT SETS THE BAR for very roughly the area-ish going forward per H1/H2’s.

When no longer a growth stock you first become a value stock and when no longer a cheap value stock, you then have to become known as a reliable dividend stock and although a value stock at present, BT will morph away from value once debt benefits from reduced CAPEX spending and become designated a reliable Dividend stock, because as once the debt reductions take place over the next few years, others will want (as I do) a piece of that reliable dividend, which of course will drive demand up through the price and a higher PE ration transforming BT from value to a stalwart dividend stock.

Finally, Stock market crashes happen – however, in my opinion? Maybe one

Am keenly awaiting all the broker’s in-house analysts’ updates (BT will publish them on their site in just over a week’s time).

In the mean time I expect my own data source subscription packages to furnish me with initial updates quicker than that.

Why? Because, similar to Fleccy, I believe the market on BT has flipped sentiment today (in what was an established downtrend from late September) into what is known as Mr. Market’s manic-depressive mode; soon it will flip to Mr Market’s manic mania upside and want to buy at any price. Maybe the imminent market guidance consensus updates required after every trading update, will be the catalyst for that?

The market will misprice stocks as it sees fit, the fact that there is a category for value stocks proves that (the downside is that certain value stocks can sometimes take 20 years to realise their potential).

One of the world’s greatest (still living) investors in his 90’s says similar sentiments about the market often being wrong – Warren Buffet on market oversights –

He said: “ If the market was always efficient, as so many proclaim, I would long ago have been another bum on the street holding out a tin can”.

I mention this because when the analysts update the new earnings review, they will have to substantially increase net profit for the full year or BT is likely to leave them looking hopelessly out of touch.

Consider: H1 last year delivered £844m net profit (£755m today so it was already expected to be down today as was revenue slightly). So, the bears have it right?

- Just a minute. If you check the November 2023 H1 you’ll see that £844m net profit published in the fundamentals tab up above. Now look at the full year and you’ll see the year’s total ending March 2024 closed with just a paltry £855m. The worst ever in recent history.

That’s just £11m produced for H2 last year!

BT has just beaten the analysts’ consensus of approx £685m net profit for H1 (ie., check BT’s market updates site and you’ll see it showing £1.3m+ Net Profit for this full year of which BT has just produced £755m of it! So only another £100m to go, to equal last year’s net profit and then on to £600m+ to do in H2 to match the current market consensus, which will beat last year comprehensively, yes?

However apart from the disaster last year of only £855m net profit, H2 last year only produced a paltry £11m Net profit - so, last year H1 showed a commendable £844m in H1 – but only £11m for H2!

That’s all BT has to beat in H2 – Just £11m net profit. When you’ve ceased laughing at the sheer ridiculousness of the situation, prepare for more. That means should BT produced similar net profit as it’s just revealed today of £755m then H2 will independently record a % gain against last year of 6,700+%

(Part 2 follows >>>)

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