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Over the years, I have yet to see a year where upon publishing the full year trading results, the SP didn’t respond positively. It’s nearly always performed well in the days after the results are announced.

Last year was notable for lower revenue and lower earnings against the preceding year, yet the SP still responded positively (for approx a week).

Today earnings have come in at $45.3m which is down yet again on last year

– yet is circa 10% up on all the quarters added up for the year (my post way below of $41.8m).

Adjustments etc that can only be actioned at the year end maybe?

Although down as a total, maybe the result was better than the market hoped for, despite accepting lower revenue/earnings?

That, coupled with the upbeat report by the CEO for the future?

So this positive reaction by the SP at annual results time, may well go on to behave as it has always done (to date).

And that is, September has always been a bit ‘awkward’ in that the SP performs well for about a week then starts wandering for the remainder of the month, then comes back into line by the month’s end. A habit it has :)

I’m still expecting the floor round about here with October being my cut-off for expecting a lower SP, and there after a nice run, straight through to next year’s Jan/Feb. (but relative to Rh prices, either a modest nice run , or a very nice run depending on the price of Rh).

Jan/Feb past years of positive perfomances might be explained by platinum customers placing/budgeting their year-ahead platinum orders? – or so I’ve read.

The earnings forecast for this current year is for a v hefty reduction in earnings of only $28m ! Yikes!

The first quarter (that concludes this month) is published on October 30th. So we’ll see then, how better or worse the first Q1 is to following that road – or not :)

Surprised there have been no posts on the actual full-year results achieved, now that all 4 quarters have been revealed in RNS’s, ahead of the full-year audited accounts to be published, circa 7th September.

Anyway, to recap - from the top:

- all-time highs in the company’s entire history were achieved for the year ending June ‘21 with the front door/back door figures of Revenue/net profit revealing:

$206m Revenue / & $99.8m Net Profit.

That was excellent.

And from there on, it’s been nothing but pullbacks all the way down.

The following year (‘22) revealed:

$152m Revenue / $56.2m Net Profit.

Early this year market guidance for this year ending June ‘23 had it down for $166m Revenue & $66.8m net profit. However, revisions continually reduced that at every trading update. That $66.8 net profit was soon reduced to expectations of $65m.

The downgrades continued and after the Q3 update, mkt guidance had been reduced further to $134m Revenue/ & £51m Net Profit.

But worse was to come.

After the recent Q4 trading update, guidance was still continuing to be reduced and is currently still showing reductions of Revenue down to $132m / & Net Profit $48m.

So as no one has posted all the actual quarter results as a running total, I’m posting them here, in readiness for the early Sept full reveal -

H1 RNS revealed as:

Revenue achieved of $79.9m & Net Profit of $32.6m

Q3 Revenue achieved $26.510m & Net Profit $6.112m

Q4 Revenue achieved $24.421m & Net Profit $3.136m

Totalling:

‘23 full-year Revenue of $130.2m

$

‘23 full year Net Profit of $41.8m

Where was the Profit Warning from the company?

Because that’s a massive drop on last year yet the trading updates have a distinct aura of: we’re-doing-great!

Whatever, disappointing as that is, this new current year is forecast to come in with further pullbacks. June ‘24 guidance has been reduced again since the Q4 trading update to currently $127m for Revenue & $24m for Net Profit!

I don’t have ‘25 forecast guidance but it’s been posted below to expect Net profit of, wait for it . . . $53.9m ! :)

Should that be the case, then ‘25 could be the last of the floor, as regards to earnings; with an impact on the SP? - only if those 2025 earnings are achieved.

I won’t have ‘25 guidance figures to hand until after the audited ‘23 results are published in early September. But I’ll happily go with that near $54m Net Profit suggested in posts below :)

”Still a good dividend and good profit what am I not seeing.”

- - - - - - - - -

Hi Manu' - Probably, the trading forecasts -

Forecasts, that market sentiment has its teeth into, that is driving the SP in a downtrend, particularly after the H1 was published

- and the updated forecasts by the analysts since that H1 trading update, that turned the screws even tighter.

You might not be the only one that has no access to these forecasts; I only get them indirectly from my subscription packages, so I’ll share what I’m seeing on screen.

So made the time away from quick-reading only these days, to squeeze in a post.

Yes as you say, still a good dividend.

However, I would have preferred if you’d inserted the word “was” before the word good as in: “and WAS a good profit . . .“

And that’s because what follows does not make for pretty reading.

Friday 30th June just gone, was the last trading day of this year’s trading. Those results will be revealed by the Co. on Wed 6th September. (Can’t see any dates for the Q4 which they usually publish in the last week of July).

Anyway the last F/year results (‘22) revealed:

A) Actual -

Revenue @ $152m

with

Earnings/Net Profit @ $56.2m

Pretty decent huh?

So what are/were the expectations for this trading year ending June 2023?

Initially for:

B) Initial forecasts -

Revenue @ $175m

and

Net Profit @ $57m

Nice increases, yes?

I thought so too, but by the time the H1 was published bearish winds were howling through SLP’s habitat.

Those initial forecasts/estimates soon gave way to further downgrades to now currently:

C) - Current expectations -

Revenue @ $133m

and

Net Profit @ $51m

- huge drops from last year’s achievements.

But that’s not the worst of it!

Here’s the shocking bit, next year - the 2024 forecast - means as of today we are already 3 days into, and that is market forecasts of:

Revenue @ £125m

And

Net Profit down to $39m !

(I think the worst this forum’s permabear poster ever forecasted for SLP was earnings of only $40m)

But this brand new current year to deliver Net Profit in the 30m’s? #@@!*!!!

- NOoooo…..!

That’s what the market is expecting. Hence the effect on the SP.

Now the question is whether the actual results beat that forecast at C) and perhaps give sentiment a chance to become more upbeat for this new trading year

- but more on my mind, is if the company comes in, only “in line” with estimates (and don’t beat it) then what will the new forecast be for 2025, released soon after the Sept 6th results are published?

All-in-all, it's beginning to feel more like a multiple-year recovery, not something that will snap-out of it in the short term.

The first test is in 2 months time when we see the annual results in September.

Yes, well done indeed!

Only posting this to highlight the great potential for a further SP increase after the trading update on July 17th when the H1 result is published, and that would be in relation for next year, not the current year, solely due to the new figures suggested in the trading update.

In this latest trading update, it’s stated that the new Revenue increase is expected for the full year to be in the region of £300m to £320m

- And a pre-tax Net Profit increase in the region of £64m to £67m

- - - - - - -

And it’s those two headings that have the potential to beat even 2024’s forecasts, let alone this current year’s that completes on Oct 31st!

REVENUE:

Last year, Revenue achieved was reported as £260m which was a terrific increase on the year prior to that (of £214m).

The old forecast for revenue for the full year (until this morning’s update was for a very nice revenue of £293m).

- that was already a nice forecast increase on last year’s £260m.

So now this morning’s update is for over £300m+ you can see part of the reason for the immediate impact on the SP today.

What probably isn’t yet widely acknowledged in the public domain is that the revenue forecast for next year (2024) is currently standing for revenue of £315m.

Now this is where the double whammy kicks in.

Should the revenue come in at anywhere near the upper end of the updated guidance of £320m then the SP would be due for a second kick upstairs on July 17th on publication of the H1 results - as it would instantly mean that a new forecast for 2024 would be in the offing to increase the 2024 forecasts too - as it had just been surpassed by 2023’s result!

I’ll leave the implications for that double whammy to sink in whilst I move on to the Pre-tax Profit trading update.

PRE-TAX PROFIT:

- Is now updated to expect £64m to £67m.

Last year Pre-Tax Profit was £53.4m

(Which in itself was almost double that of the prior year! That resulted in Net profits of £38.8m after taxes etc.,)

Don’t have next year’s pre-tax profit forecasts to hand, but I do have access to next year’s net profit forecasts -

Net Profit forecast for the current year I’m seeing as £43.9m

And that is based on an impressive old revenue forecast of £293m which has just been updated to north of £300m+

(So is it fair to expect an increase on that £43.9m net profit for 2024?

The reason I ask that is because the forecast for next year’s net profit is currently for £48.8m. Will that too be increased?

I daren’t post a guess what ‘24 actual pre-tax profit could come in at, but that’s where the double whammy effect would have it’s most impact on the SP after this July 17th when we get to see the actual H1 half-way results achieved.

(I’m betting that after the H1 results next month, then the following year’s 2024 forecasts will also be duly increased in line with the new H1 actual results achieved; with

I have only been able to watch in short periods at the recent retracing of the SP as each trending level was demolished by the bears to the state the SP has reached.

From initially completing Jan & Feb to (at least) expected gains (but tiny gains only, though) which I had judged would likely be the best performing SP period of the year - but were disappointingly less than expected, I then found myself busy elsewhere.

March got underway with a steep kick-down. But didn’t stop and continued dramatically. Wasn’t too alarmed as the Ultra-short term trends turned bearish, that’s what they can do, but when the first major trend - the Short-term trend also turned bearish - that’s when you have to say something’s afoot.

Too busy to notice when the Intermediate trend turned bearish by early March.

However, I was truly alarmed when the Medium Trend turned bearish by early April.

It was a cold shower to the gains of Jan and Feb with the market definitively highlighting that the current uptrend was officially over even though all had been given prior due notice anyway. Knew it is now only a matter of when, not if, the weekly longer-term trends go south but currently due to the inbuilt laxity that takes months to turn - the Long Term Trend I live by, is not throwing the towel in, and remains bullish.

However, I have some slightly faster Longer Term trends for when I get ‘twitchy’ and start muttering: this can’t be right - and they are all uniformly bearish.
The SP is grimly hanging on by the finger tips to losing the mighty 200 day trend (Which I supplement with a monthly trend of 10 months - and it backs up the precarious position of sinking beneath the 200-day trend - (Absolute No-go territory for investors; except for riverboat gamblers and Special forces types).

In a month I could be singing an alternative song - but there’s no escaping that March has seen the commencement of a descent into bearish trends for the SP.

April and May I wasn’t expecting anything spectacular other than to be slightly bullish - so surprised at the 11th hour (this afternoon) the month has indeed closed up on the month’s open - at last! :)

With May not typically stronger than April, but if it continues with the bear trend, it still shouldn’t go down as deep as April did.

However, nothing can divert me from the belief that all will suffer in June.
I’ll take bets on June doing what it’s done almost continually since SLP listed
- and that is to behave as a right stinker that it always has done, and closes down on the month open.

My longer-term view is for a respite from this October through to next Jan/Feb - international pressures permitting.

However, the SP is trending contrary to that view. And it’s the bigger under current trends that rule, no matter what my private thoughts are.

Thank you for listening - over and out.

"velo,
can you explain the technique behind "seasonal probabilities"

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Hi Toptiger,
If I don't post now, it'll be late next week at this rate! :)

1) Seasonal (years of data)
2) Probabilities (close to the month - either up or down)
3) % of gain/loss (% movement by month close)

1)
The seasonal part refers to those months that have shown a "statistically significant" repeatability over a given period of years.

2)
The probabilities part refers to the percentage probabillity given to the data that a certain month will close higher than it opened (rather than down).

Both Jan & Feb had 100% assigned to them as virtually a certainty that those months would probably close higher than they opened. And in this case they both did close up on their month.

3)
However, both failed miserably to close anywhere near the SP expected, as the performance percentage gains/loss assigned to each month were extraordinarily high double figure percentage gains.

On the other hand, those months expected to close down on what they opened, are given v low percentages that they don't stand any chance of closing up on the month.

So a severe 0% probability assigned to a month is the exact opposite of a 100% assignment with the data saying no chance that such and such a month will close higher than it opened. There is only one bearish month that appears every year for SLP with a 0% rating
- and that is June!

It's a single % figure pullback assigned to June but based on Jan & Feb accuracy I'm not looking for that kind of accuracy - only the v strong probability that June closes lower than it opens (down).

0% and 100% probabilities are usually accurate.
Amount of % gains or losses, are a bit hit and miss.

PS. Most stocks/indices vary between lowish and high %.

Specific 0% and 100% probabiliities are v strong but not universally common, but appear often enough to search for.

It's the No: 3) % gain or % pullback that can be very ropey. Usually wide of the mark.

The extreme 0% & 100% months usually do comply but as said, are a bit ropey on the specific amounts in either direction.

Data is compilled for month end, to month end.
(End of the preceeding month, to end of the current month in question).

Seasonality is that sphere of investing that searches out statistically significant repeated data over the same periods each year - over 5 years,10 years, 20 years, 80 years.

80 years indices ie., tendencies only - not reliable probabilities - examples:
(Best performance tendency is that generally, it's best to buy stocks in late Oct and sell in mid Jan to replace the outdated sell in May and go away)
( Tendency for the last trading day before a Bank holiday and the first day after the bank holiday to be bullish).

All above not to be used in isolation.
Has to be backed up with research/analysis.
ie., A small side-hustle to add to your primary analysis.

Fun though :)

Jan & Feb Summary:.....

Well Jan and Feb did NOT perform as suggested by seasonal probabilities. That much is fact - no matter what I was anticipating.

SLP had ceased showing dependable characteristics and continues in that vein. Despite bullish longer term trends newly resurrected since last autumn, the 'seasonal' characteristics can not be counted on, in particular - since the early summer of '21 when the super trend in Rhodium hit the buffers.

I posted earlier this year on Jan 1st as a prelude to my hope of seeing a very bullish Jan and Feb that -

"... But all upset the applecart from May' 21 - until that is, the late '22 fourth quarter. So keen to see if old characteristics return..."

Well as keen as I was to see if they would return, after this Jan and Feb - I have my answer;
those characteristics haven't returned!

So looks like the big positive months (Jan/Feb) are functional only in bull markets.

If that means the extremely bearish months are more dependable in bearish conditions then it's likely that the only dependable probability is that June will stink the place out again (however, now that I've posted that - it provides some protection as once I post it - it fails to do so :)

Whatever - the predominant longer term trend is still bullish overall. Albeit with progress in small steps.

These historical seasonality probabilities are just my side hustle interests.

Shame, as SLP had behaved with dependable charactetistics up until the price demise of Rhodium that commenced almost 2 years ago.
.

The SP during this current XD period:.....

Just recently I've focused on a regularity when the tree shakers made their move but that too appears not to be transpiring as I originally expected. (Expected a peak in the SP by the 8th March and a constant drop to the month end but only after the 8th).
Instead there's no repeat of both '21 and '22, but the opposite with the SP for the first time in 2 years behaving as most stocks do during their XP period.

So - enough of the interim side hustles, the predominant trend is bullish.
And that matters more.

PS.
I was looking to sell this tranche on March 8th and buy back at end of March
if the SP behaved as the last 2 years have on March 8th, during both their XD periods. (Whilst leaving my secondary SLP account holdings untouched).

If the SP does end the month low enough, will just add a smaller purchase to this tranche.

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