George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
High probability of not only a sustained revisit to the 140's tomorrow, but more than likely the day will close in the 140's too.
Maybe no deeper than 148-145 area. But nonetheless expecting a close somewhere in the 140's.
Not a certainty of course, because - IMO only.
For anyone who's expecting a further divi payment, I'd like to be more precise on the jibe in my initial post about no more dividends after the year-end results are known.
And that is a dividend will be paid to holders next week, on 13th October (19p per share) but it puts into question if the merchant banks et al, will willingly issue credit loans to XPP once the full year losses are known (debt was up from £24m to £80 in the Q1 trading update. Their website is showing that debt has now breached the £100m level. What bank is going to willingly lend money to a loss-making company that wants to use that loan to pay out in non-returnable dividends?
Bound to be caveats attached to the loans, especially with rapidly rising interest rates propelling that net debt even higher than before, for the issuance of any further loans to cover debts.
I just don't think the company will be allowed to dish out freebies like dividends, do you - once the year-end result is published?
But the Oct 13th dividend is winging its way to you.
I think it'll be the last until the company returns to a profit-making enterprise, but that's just mere opinion at this stage . . . my opinion only.
Blah-blah-boringboy, the pip-squeak cry baby, who can't stand any opinion other than his own, thus rendering him incapable of original thought to answer the specific content in my post, so empty headed, he goes for the player rather than the ball.
I have one - no two questions for him:
1) Did you even know XPP was already in a loss-making position so far this year?
Well, did you?
2) Are you aware that the full trading year ending this Dec 31st will more than likely result in the current intra-year loss swamping H2 to reveal a total loss for the full year?
Number two, is a forecast of course. Forecasts can be wrong. I defy you to say that forecast won't happen
- Go on I dare you :)
Blah blah is the right name for you
- boringboy poster of the year for sure
....Yawn
PS.
Is that the full level of your Sherlock Holmes intellect on display there? Did you really, seriously, believe that no one but you alone, has noticed this forum is sparsely posted? Geezalou!
Why weren't the half-year (H1) results mentioned on this forum, here back in early August?
(Curiously, they weren't even published on this site, under the RNS tab up above).
The earlier Q1 results that are published up above revealed a bullish increase in revenue with a great increase in orders and a brief but punchy statement from the CEO about the court case.
Debt at March was over 3 times higher than that of the year-end results!
(£24m up to £84m) but explained as a result of acquisitions. Okay then.
The last half dozen years of revenue show excellent growth including forecasts for this year and next year also increasing nicely.
Net profits in those years were similar, apart from one year in that period out of synch by being a little less v the other increasing yearly Net Profits.
Still okay.
However, the H1 trading result (which I've now obtained) shows the opposite of the increasing net profits, not a profit but a great stonking loss of minus - £33m !
(with operating profit further up initially at minus - £45m!)
Does that mean by "absorbing" the court fine it's been paid out of this year's entire net profits?
If so why not amortise it over several years to ease the burden.
No promised dividend for you lot by this year's end results then - because using the TTM method of calculation the full year ending on the 31st December is likely (but not certain) to likely come in with its first gigantic loss ever of minus - £26.5 m loss!
(You better hope that TTM estimate doesn't materialise as there are two major guru shorting screens promoting this stock as a good bet to short further).
Additionally the infamous Altman Score by a professor of finance has XXP down as potentially a bankrupt basket case within the next 2 years. (The Altman score is not to be taken too much to heart - I've studied it for years and it often misses the target completely.
My assessment (I have no holding yet in XPP) but it's a watchlist stock of mine ever since I missed out on climbing aboard for the stellar rise back in 2019 - is that the SP of this stock has not finished retracing.
PS. Two hedge funds have shorting sharks circling you under the short button up above.
(Well ostensibly 2 above 0.5% that is).
No regulatory requirement to reveal your hand if your short is less than 0.5% so there could be more; checked after finding 2 Guru screens promoting this stock as a candidate for shorting.
So why was the damaging H1 trading update never discussed on this forum here?
" I made the most of it and increased my holding by 40% buying all the way down."
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Hmmm.... 'All the way down'???
What makes you think the SP has finally reached ***ALL*** the way down?
Do you have any evidence/logic to share/ support that assertion?
Secondly if it continues to languish say for example for weeks/months, do you still have spare funds to take advantage of further lower prices should per chance, they occur or have you a pre-planned budget that has now been reached?
..... although I'd really love the 90's again, to put the new entry holding in real eternal safety.
(Back to that old friend of £2b net profit forecast by both analysts and der management for the current year)
- so looking forward to the November H1 reveal to see if all on course for that or not.
Revenue forecast to be increasing annually from this year and now on (the first in living memory (yer wot?!? Shock horror!)
Geopolitical events though on course to potentially upset all that and all markets everywhere. So you better take that £1 while the going's good, eh?
Go on keep selling; keep the price dropping. There's a quid here waiting for yours.
Discounted cash flow puts the margin of safety pounds above the current price so nobody is really down permanently if you can hold long enough without crying like a baby.
Am convinced the next 3 months will be positive for the SP so could you sellers please hurry up driving the price down and give me your stock for a quid before the SP moves into its best performing months of the year please. Thank you.
Pffft to £1.20!
(Cue heavy sound of jingling sound one pound coins in trouser pockets) jingle jingle!
For the sake of clarity, my posting below yesterday of commencing a new holding in SLP in a separate account from my main holding does not infer that all is bullish and good to go.
On the contrary all is still v bearish.
The bear is still with us. If anything expect further poor SP performance until the market displays different to currently.
Repeat: short term trends are still pointing down. And the SP is below the predominant trend which is grimly hanging on to the 90p level.
Hope that's clear for any undecided fence sitters out there.
More volatility than the worst behaved bad-boy penny stocks – yet UKW has a stellar low Beta rating of just 0.2 indicating an extremely stable SP.
Expect that rating to climb after this – the worst slide in UKW’s history since launching on the stock market, with only the March 2020 crash to better it!
No wonder investors might wonder: Should I buy now or wait/ Has the worst of the slide finished or not?
That’s what extreme volatility does – has everyone chasing their tail.
Tsk! Closed-end financial funds with their beloved govt bonds - and their damned yields!
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Run up some pivot points (for fun) for potential swing ‘ideas’ for tomorrow only - and redundant after Thurs close
- and am coming up with:
Between 146 and 153 if a bullish day,
with some higher SP’s above those – if it’s of a mind to on the day.
On the other hand if it’s back to the bears then getting between 146 down to 143.
Some really savage lower SP’s below this if the bottom drops out of your world tomorrow (including that 135 I was ruminating over).
But those two ranges are the ‘most likely’ on-the-day
146 coming out as the actual pivot point, so if a quiet day instead, then not much travel very far, either direction, from 146.
Above IMO only of course.
Whatever; so 140 held the fort after all then. Wonderful thing hindsight. I use it all the time :) :)
---------------
Letting things settle to allow lagging trends to play catch-up and see what comes out in the wash for a better opinion of the next likely traversing of the SP.
Done it. Opened a new (v small initial tranche) holding in my main account. Did want to add to my current holding but no funds left in that account and not wishing to add further funds to that particular account.
I hereby claim (in this account only) to have the smallest holding on this board! :)
Can't say that for my older holding elsewhere :)
It'll be a pure (swing) trade account as have it planned out to March 1st next year - then banking it and trading on as trends dictate.
Well this month is performing true to form. But don't get too downhearted just yet with 2 days to go.
I measure month end, to month end, in dividing SLP up for monitoring purposes once I'm convinced trends (my guiding lights) are also in alignment.
And the August month end close was 81.5p
So with 2 days to go it looks likely to at least close Sept as a small gain. The computer is forecasting a loss for the month. We'll see.
81.5 is the way marker. Beat it! The computer says the price won't. What do you say? :)
I think Loggy has displayed the right attitude and not loading up at the September highs, but instead mopping up the dregs for a good price. I'm hung up in SLP in another account so have to be careful I don't overfill my trough on one stock by buying all in just one stock. Plenty fish in the sea to cast the net wider.
But I am convinced some sort of pay day is winging it's way here over Jan & Feb next year. So picking up bargains (and not duds) is worth a shot if the money on the table is controlled and not wildly risked beyond tolerance. I might yet buy very small in my main account and add if even lower hoves into view at the same tiny amounts - as a trading punt.
I have a longer term investment in SLP elsewhere. So it would be pure trading not investing. Small stakes is my control when the risks are higher.
The challenge is, can I wait until trends are so in alignment they are screaming their heads off and the price is far from the 80's and rising and still keep my cool? Thing is I don't do cool. Hmm. We all have faults. What's yours :)
Nice price to add Loggy.
And with: "heading towards ex divi date." just prepare yourself of course, on the 27th Oct for the MM's to whip that 8p divi away from investors pronto and not return it until payday on 2nd Dec.
So another opportunity for adding another decent add/entry price between 27th Oct to Dec 2nd?
Also Oct has the potential to perform superior to September, so in between the light-fingered MM's having your 8p away is the possibility to claw some of it back before Dec 2nd - Geopolitical events permitting.
But with new govt and crashing pound/BOE intervention/s, it's anybody's guess of course :)
This mornings drop is a market wide response to the IMF taking the unprecedented step of criticising the Govts fiscal policy. Big guns are wheeling out of UK stocks in general.
The price was pulling back regardless but it's been pushed off the railway platform from behind, by marketwide conditions this morning. Red, red, everywhere is red. Let alone SLP.
Trying to get on with other chores but just seen 139 hove into view.
All minor supports have gone. One I didn't dare post because it was so low and I risked being labelled a deramper was my fancy of 135. Now that does look strong.
"looks" LOL!
Now should that go too, then you know what comes next. That's right! Nothing will suffice but recourse to a couple of good ol' Anglo Saxon swear word or two.
A sliver of distress fleets across my mind, that my post has been linked to your selling decision ChequeMate.
Time only at the moment to post that this mornings drop is a market wide response to the IMF taking the unprecedented step of criticising the Govts fiscal policy. Big guns are wheeling out of UK stocks in general. Added misery for the SP as if it didn't have enough on its hands.
PS.
V late last night DSF (discounted cash flow) margin of safety methodology, was suggesting 146p as "fair value". If I buy it will be in tranches no higher than that, once the trend finds the floor and a bullish outlook returns to the SP trend.
Well, what a terrible close – 147!
Was just examining how all new investors since late March of this year are now all underwater tonight, than a post pops up, dating their buy in April and stating such underwater condition.
On the one hand, a case could be made for: It’s only a bit of mean reversion as the predominant trend in the SP had since pre-mid-September risen noticeably well clear, far above the 200-day predominant trend and mean reversions to the average are as regular as rain.
But is it? Just a case of mean reversion?
The suddenly accelerated pullback, now looking like a full-on, in-yer-face retrace, gathered momentum in lockstep with the crashing pound after the Govt’s mini-budget caused that effect upon an already descending pound.
However, during the day, the SP was sitting pretty above the 200-day border, but by close it had breached it and sank beneath its waves. Could be temporary. Often is in mean reversions. But the massive, sudden pull-back in the price appears to show genuine, sustained sellers as witnessed by the increased volume.
Price has officially entered oversold condition, so that offers scope for a potential recovery once the last seller leaves the building, but I refrain from a decision and instead do as I always do and – follow the trend.
It’s down, and that’s it.
I will marvel at anyone posting well because of this, that and the other, the SP will break out from here any day now - I wait and just watch the trends.
For instance, maybe there’s a floor around 145-ish as there is a support there.
Or maybe you fancy waiting to load up at around 140?
As there’s another support there too.
Or maybe the price will bounce almost immediately tomorrow back above the predominant trend just a few single pence above this awful 147.
(Awful because it’s without doubt, below the major predominant trend. And nothing good ever comes of any stock that stays below the predominant trend unless it shifts its backside and starts living up on deck – above the 200-day trend. It’s literally a fact of investing survival.
Something has spooked this once marvellous bull trend in UKW. Sellers are now in panic mode as they’ve driven the price into oversold condition. That’s panic. Plenty of posts offering why they’ve panic-sold (from banking profits ie., mean reversion capitulation) or something else less benign? I don’t know.
I don’t know what the major influence is that’s hit the SP so hard. I just follow the trend and barely ask why.
I probably will buy; after I’ve received more data from my data subscription provider (Stockopedia - as they’re very scant on this stock).
- But so far, initially, believe it or not - I like it.
Well, there's a blast from years past. Hi there Chequemate!
Was going to say hope the market has been kind to you in the meantime
- but the market doesn't do kindness. So I hope you've survived well.
Sector momentum is what propels my, passing ship in the night, visit here as Energy has been the prime performing sector since the poison-dwarf, Putin decided to feck-over everybody's future.
Only fell on this stock today. Not buying whilst it's in a downtrend, but look what the price has done to the dividend yield; good before but now it's looking well into over 5%+ (fwd) territory, but most of all this mission statement from the company ignites my interest:
" The Company's investment objective is to provide investors with an annual dividend that increases in line with retail price index (RPI) inflation. . . "
So whilst investors suffer the slings and arrows of bear markets & war et al, good dividend stocks can be very much in vogue to buffer stocks hit in the market-wide bearish retrace in all the international indices.
If time, am putting brief general thoughts down in a post after this on aka - price.
... quite dramatic and not since the March crash of 2020 has there been such a severe reaction by the SP. Any more definite info on the main driver of this retrace in the SP?
Got this on a watch list now.
Finding it difficult to get a clear reading of the balance sheet. Not seeing any quality or value ratings. Revenue has been zig zaggy over the years as has been net profit.
Overall, this year is due to deliver fantastic trading results but then reverts back to zig zagging with really low trading figures for next year.
Confusing.
I'm therefore monitoring the SP price action trends. Interestingly as severe as the retrace has been it still hasn't fallen below the predominant trend which is only a penny away down in the 140's. Also the intermermediate trend hasn't been crossed to the downside either such had been the speed of descent. It's still bullish. All bearishness is held in the short term trends only.
But should that nearby predominant trend get breached then it would start looking like most other stocks on the indices and an expectation of worse to come would be likely. At the moment it's been too fast to get a handle on it. Need to know a hard precise readon/s for the retrace before opening mind to this being only temporary.
Knife edge!
Stoodio @
"... Would be keen to hear what Velo has to say when he's back from lawnmower duties at Grimsby Town FC."
-----------------
Ha!
Hi Stoodio,
Yes I am still tied up in the North - but not that far north :)
Grimsby? That's Eeh-bah-gum territory, isn't?
Instead, I'm holed-up on the Staffordshire /Cheshire border.
Time to occasionally skip read here, but at the moment, time to post is v limited.
I agree with your observation that:
' the global markets are doing weird things for this month of September to date'
It has always been thus for several years now. September is nearly always the single worst performing month for the leading American S&P500 index.
However September is not the worst month for SLP (that's usually reserved for June) but it is perhaps a background of that US generally underperforming month, that maybe influences the several years of SLP's Septembers (and others) being an 'iffy' month.
(ie., Good results yet strangely the SP often gets kicked-back from the intra-month heights by that month's end).
My expectation for September is for it to close the month up, but perhaps nearer to its month open, than the admirable heights it always achieves on the days surrounding the publication of its September annual trading results.
However this rally has been enjoyable with all the shorter term trends now returned to bullish behaviour, and even better the slightly more indicative Intermediate trend has recently turned bullish too! Yay!
Even the mighty 200 day average has currently been bested by the SP (by sitting above 90p).
Longer term holders in SLP are well aware of the annual tendancy for SLP to pull back from the heights of intra-September by the close of that month as it almost never closes as the highest point of the month (buy on the rumour and sell on the news?)
But that doesn't mean it has to reoccur this year, as the summer of 2021 (after May) broke the model, didn't it?
I did want to post that my first target; The first big test - was 90p.
£1 held no interest for me other than it was a big fat round number.
The SP sliced through it (90) like a hot knife through butter. It's misleading to think that infers super powers upon the rally until the SP proves it can maintain a position above 90p from now on until the year end. Don't care if the SP bounces around within the 90's but fall below 90 - it must not!!!
Because that currently is where the near-year long 200 day average currently lies.
I like to say: All is possible above the 200 but there is no meaningful life/future for any stock that appears to live permanently below the 200.
My main bullish expectations lie in the coming Jan & Feb period, so any bullish sustained moves beforehand, that maintain life above the 200 average, are a cause of celebration for me.
---
(Heh! Hope this is long enough a post even though I'm pushed for time, to antagonise Tiger.
If not - there's reams more of A4 pages still in
No confusion from my sources. It's a full 8p divi payment, and yes, currently that represents an incredible near10% divi payment from just that single payment alone.
XD date is 27th October which slots in nicely with my expectation of the potential for the SP to cease retracing if not appreciate from then on, but n particular will stick my neck out and place my opinion of this coming Jan and Feb to be the lucrative period for the SP to appreciate most notably.