Member Info for Velo

95p thanks Roofer.

Update:

Decided against temporary selling fully (or part-selling) and following the original plan, whereby February puts right all wrongs that may develop this week.

Should the SP pull back significantly this week, then I still have a final pre-planned top-up.

I'll be a monkey's uncle if this week doesn't turn out bearish though.

90.5 thanks Roofer.

The SP is now in the bearish territory that I’d previously mentioned, over 3 or 4 earlier posts in early January - posted 6th/10th/13th-ish, I think.

And that is the bearish period I was wary of most. (Halfway point onwards of Jan often dips a bit).
Was hoping for higher than 113 maximum gains up to the 18th as I believe a bearish period is now in play which as mentioned may last until approx 28th.

Or in this case up until next Friday the 27th, as the 28th is a Saturday.

However, I also believe commencing from the following Monday after that close of Friday 27th, will run bullishly all the way until the 6th Feb, but there’s a Fed meeting right in the middle of all that. Be that as it may, it’s those last few closing days of this month (the 30th & 31st) that have to do the heavy lifting in bringing the SP back up to expectations. I’m v optimistic of that returning bull will make some effort.

I have 2 decisions now.
Either sell this new position on Monday entirely. Should the week continue bearishly before the price dips below this new holding average, and then buy back, later next week over several tranches as the price descends.

Or the traditional way, and let price fall below the buying average price anyway, and just top-up regardless at prices below my average.

I do think this pullback might be alarming in some quarters. So if time on Monday I favour selling the lot to start over, at lower prices during next week.
Two minor trends are now bearish
- the fastest, early bird trends; although the much stronger, predominant trends are steadfastly bullish.
In other words this pullback I expect to be temporary only.

After the fiasco of the summer of ‘21, I intend to be more proactive this year.

" you're trading on a PE of almost 9 now for a SA miner "

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Only if earnings come in as low, as you stated previously.

All credible sources have earnings for this trading year, forecast to come in much higher than your lowly suggestion.

So P/E of 9 if your low earnings guess every materialises.
Trading Update in late February.
We'll all see the H1 update then and updated forecasts for the full year.

No doubt as per usual you'll still come up with a lower earnings forecast than anyone else.

That's the problem.

- Others have access to the same data and are coming up with higher earnings than you do.

By the way, you never admitted you got your forecast of £1 SP incorrect when you posted:

" . . .The last comment from me was you might get 100p on a good run and that's what happened (4-5 times) if your not trading this 80-100p range and are waiting like John Rambo for . . ."

- Instead of confessing you got that wrong.

In the next post after the SP reached 107 you hoped no one would remember your only a £1 indiscretion and tried again in early January but now ignoring your forecast of £1 with:

" . . . Momentum is all that is keeping this up (look at the endless price references) that will end when the posters have offloaded their shares around 106-107 and you fail to . . . "

How come you jumped from £1 up to 106/107 when you were so sure - so sure of £1, was all it was going to rise to?

Answer: Because you were wrong, but would rather not own up. We all make mistakes. If you never own-up to getting your estimates wrong, why should anyone ever believe any strongly held guesses you come up with?

Thanks Quiggers.

I use IG for all Spreadbetting these days (not many times in recent years) but hate its charts. Love SpreadEx's charts but locked out of there and abandoned it years ago. For both of them I compare to/ have my own subscription package live-time charts on separate window tabs. So can end up with more than half a dozen window tabs on the go.

Going to get SpreadEx to unlock my password mess and use their charts instead of IG's.

I use trends on everything under the sun. (Although I do have 3 stochastics under the chart screen withadditional custom settings. Found the ready-provided slow, and fast stochastics inadequate for my needs so have my own settings for an extremely fast and a long term stochastics with the bog standard everyday settings in the middle. Have a couple of other indicators but not many. The last word as well (as the first word) goes to my trends.

That lesson was finally nailed through bone and into my skull after the '21 summer fiasco with the SLP price. I ignored my trends whilst playing with other stuff. Fine tuned and customised them further in case I slip-up again in the future. But even so, there was no need for me to suffer any serious reduction in profit from that summer as they were screaming their heads off perfectly in time! Asleep at the wheel I was.

Probably will try a long swing trade on gold, although my intention is (if I can keep the amounts placed small) I want to let it run for a couple of months until circa 2400 is reached/ or not :) But the drawdowns would likely send me back to short term decisions. Small bets is the solution to that.

Anyone here ever traded in Spot gold? If so - any experiences?
Been watching it rise steadily from circa1650 from last autumn. Currently at 1920's

Never traded gold per se. Thinking on giving it a go with IG.

( Page 2 ) Concludes > > >

. . . It depends on the revenue/net profits achieved each year as to how long the SP pauses at each prior high on the way back up.

Other things that will ensure the continued progress - are MANDATORY - before this uptrend can get much under way.

4)
The SP is under the internationally accepted predominant long-term trend - namely the 200 day average, currently a bit above the SP at £9.13 and continually dropping - but the SP has got its dander up and is up for a fight!

The SP must get above the 200 day trend and keep above it!

5)
Secondly the 200-day trend has to cease descending
- which it will do if the SP keeps walking up - nay! - It’s running up the stairs, on it’s way to the next prior high, one after the other.

That’s VITAL. How many jobs have I given you to do so far? :)

6)
I have my own long-term custom twin combo trend and that is still hellish bearish.

It’s my self-imposed rule not to invest where the Ultra Long-Term trend is bearish - that’s the true predominant trend.
However, institutions will start investing when a key stock is above the 200-day trend
- and price, living below it, is when some institutions start to depart - that’s what’s been behind the giant retrace for the couple of past years - the institutions - not the PI’s!

Also whilst the 200 sails its Jolly Roger flag above the SP, no self-respecting hedge fund shorter willingly throws the towel in. Once the SP starts living above the 200 and holds its ground there’s not an experienced shorter that will keep a short open whilst price maintains itself above the 200 day trend.

Trend Followers are not gamblers and can never enjoy getting in at the bottom nor enjoy selling out at the top. They have to get confirmed cross-over trend signals that are lagging in nature and therefore only get the meat of the rise, but rarely profit from all of it.

Just wish the SP would do it a bit more sedately. It’s leaving me too far behind. It’s a deficiency in the system that trend followers readily accept. There is no perfect answer in investing. Only what suits you personally.

The above is my personal outlook and all IMOnly

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"
Would be interested to hear your take on this profound movement bud "

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Hi Stoodio,

Saw your post; been trying to circle back to you.
Such a lot, my main concern is in cutting it down to a reasonable length :)

Well, what a dramatic turnaround eh? All systems go at the moment.
So It WAS a double bottom that was forming after all!
This is a typical reaction upon departing from one.

I haven’t bought in yet as still some bridges to cross to meet my personal investing criteria. I’ve developed my systematic investing style as much to protect myself from my own errors, as by performing stringent tests on worthy candidates.

The first is currently Warren Buffett’s ‘intrinsic value’ for ASC, beyond which he won’t invest in any stock unless there’s a cheap margin of safety present, and here, it is easily passed.
(In practice I rarely let it rule my decisions).
Called these days the DCF valuation (The Discounted Cash-flow valuation).
I’m seeing it at circa £12.

That means anyone paying below or up to £12 this year is getting ASC cheap
- according to the DCF valuation. Doesn’t mean the SP is going to £12 - that depends on the market sentiment and demand.

Couple of things in the balance sheet that disturb me but I’ll let them go. The poor performance last year is a legacy hangover impacting those issues. So let those lie.

The first thing is the SP tonight parked up just a little under £8.
You could almost say for a reason
- it’s the doorstep of the SP’s FIRST major test!
Probably will get tested quickly tomorrow.

And the reason is this: A rising trend is like ascending a series of steps up some stairs - to rise further you have to step up to the prior higher steps. And the first prior high is in mid-Nov last year that formed the apex of the double bottom lies at circa 790+’s - is it.

1)
If price can’t get past that very first step on the stairs, the very first prior high, it ain’t going nowhere and is just another false positive that’s been seen all the way down since the all-time high of way back since the spring of 2018 to currently.

Not an intra-day visit as per yesterday to over 800 - but must close the day anywhere above it! Easy? Go get it then.

Should be easy but it never fails to amaze me the number of false positives where an early warning test is a complete failure upon attempting to get above the first significant prior high.

2)
Assuming it is easy, the next prior high for an up-trending SP is the prior high of late July last year of approx £11.50+ -ish.

3)
After that is the next significant high of the first few days of June last year at £16 on the nose.

You get the drift - loads and loads of prior significant highs that a rising SP must rise past on its way up.

It depends on the revenue/net profits achieved each year as to how long the SP pauses at each prior high on the way back up.

Other things that will ensure continued progress - are MANDA

Erratum:
"drop from last night's close"

- Meant of course a: drop from last Friday's close.

Hi Pyro/P,

I'm afraid all trends are bearish and have been for quite some time. Worst of all the predominant trend, the most important of all, is strongly bearish. So price-wise this week looks v bearish on probabilities.

Leading up to the trading update, two of the shorter term trends, did bullishly cross to the upside.

I did post under this header that the downside for today was looking like such a huge drop from last night's close, that I must have made a mistake and refused to reveal my findings, suffice to say for a single day it was revealing a potential for a drop, even lower than the intraday low, on the trading update day, last week!

First thing this morning, the SP did look promising - as a close of 265 whilst not bullish would be a neutral safety close IMOnly, but it soon relinquished that idea.

Considered posting a weekly SP area probability close for fun, not as a forecast, but was too tired by then, and busy now.

I don't buy or sell on them. Only on the say of the trends (Trend follower)
and they are, as you can see for yourself, quite nasty currently. No sign of a let-up.

The SP has yet to close on, or just below, the IPO launch price of (250) -
" A price can revisit a strong support, but revisit it once too often and it will eventually fall through".

" I am cheap and with iWeb. The interface is horrendous though."
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Hi Luna - I concur.

That's the 'other account' (ISA) I've mentioned in past posts now and then, that I intend removing SLP from, and rebuild in HL (expensive but the best platform on offer IMO). So yes it is cheap to run, but a crude platform.

It's been irksome that I couldn't top-up in that account (maxed-out). However, had loadsacash waiting in the HL account (SIPP). So currently have SLP in two accounts soon to be one. That's If my plans come to fruition by the end of February :)

Morning Roofer. This is me rushing to post by 8:00am LOL!

93.55 thanks.

Lending, it's late so barely time for this brief response on revenue;
- I dispute your clear bias in stating "30%" revenue growth is not exactly awe inspiring".

In fact, I'm surprised you're so strongly biased on the commendable revenue increase that's forecast for this year. However, if you're unimpressed with the forecast revenue then you're unimpressed. I will have to agree to disagree :)
Eh?
Here's a copy/paste from the RNS -

" At its FY 2023 constant currency rates(1), Darktrace expects ARR at 31st December 2022 of at least $556.3 million, representing year-over-year growth of at least 36.5%"

L/Y Revenue was $415m. New guidance as given above, is $556m.

(Analysts forecasts have already reduced that to $547m - (still an impressive gain!)

How on earth is a revenue growth of 36.5% to produce $556m “not exactly awe inspiring”?

You are entitled to your opinion of course, but the bias in your mindset is visible in but the bias in your mindset is visible in dismissing that huge increase in revenue so off-handedly!

(Hmm anyone on strike turning down a 36.5% pay rise as not awe-inspiring would get short shrift, wouldn't they? LOL!)

I don't understand how you can dismiss $556m so readily when the prior year was $415m! What's poor performance about that?

And I haven't even mentioned the huge revenue increase for next year, yet again on top of this current year's new guidance for revenue.

One thing you do say though that I am genuinely concerned about as a possible reason for the widespread media bearishness against the current revenue guidance is this point you raise -

“ The question is where is it heading in . . . to 5 to 10 years from now . . .”

Yes, that’s something that could be the issue.
(I’ve left out the bit that preceded 5 to 10 years, of 2 to 3 years as I have next year’s market guidance to hand, so not concerned about the next 2 years).

All I‘ve got time for :)

For bulls of Dark, it’s a game of choosing your bargain floor price.

For Monday if the little bullish response in the days since the poor response on the day of the trading update is to continue - then I’d be looking for no less a minimum close on Monday of 265

However, despite the refusal of the SP to continue the pullback, if that bear trend does return on Monday then the potential for the next drop-down on Monday is so deep I daren’t post it here, lest I’ve made a spreadsheet error.

All sorts of estimates being given on a variety of websites. A forecast of 66p within a year has been issued by one (WalletInvestor).

Stockopedia’s claim of 11 brokers analyst’s covering Dark offer their latest lowered forecast of £4.81.

Simply Wall Street is in a similar area but claims only 7 analysts updated forecasts, with their DCF fair valuation adjusted again to £5.46

Am I misguided to take in good faith the board’s guidance for the hugely increased revenue and net profit for both this year and next? They’re truly stupendous.
What am I missing, that makes so many media observers heavily bearish over Dark?

“ Velo, regarding your comment below, I have the same gut feeling
- 'until I can figure out what the rip-off is here' “

——————————

Might have been a misunderstanding with my late-night posting there, Stumpy.
By that, I meant the rip-off against Dark!

The reaction to a very mild adjustment that still retains an overall huge increase over last year was disproportionate IMO.

ASOS had a similar trading update reveal last week, and the market response has shot their SP up a couple of quid !

Dark’s new guidance for the full year (and next year) are still impressive increases over last year and Y-O-Y for those 2 years in isolation too!

The only thing I can come up with is the distrust of the connection between the CEO and the management to Mike Lynch, which erodes the benefit of any doubt that might have been due.
All Dark has to do is deliver this year's and next year’s guidance - and all doubts will be removed with the delivery of those enormous performances as forecast for the trading results.

One thing that did knock me is last year’s criticism of Dark in the media complaining that Dark’s budget for research and development is much less than the competition’s budget for their products. So they were kind of suggesting something underhand.

Results are all Dark needs to reply to critics.

Mid price is showing as 109 close on the London Stock exchange.
Weird because both my own data feed and this site concur the close as 108.5.

However, just checking something in the US and it's showing the close as 109
- the same as the London exchange!

Whatever, I won't be surprised to see a close on Monday in the 110's or (failing that an intraday visit to 110) and the start of the 100+double digit prices range.

One of my earliest memories as a kid was of an old film about Sabu in the Thief Of Baghdad. It was 40 or 60 years old even then. I've been hearing a refrain from it playing in my mind today from that old old movie as I gazed at the JD price. And it's the refrain in the subject header of this post - I'm free! Free at last of being kept prisoner with this SP for what seems like two thousand years. Today I'm back in profit!!!!

Now then that means I can grant you 3 wishes. Think carefully.

https://youtu.be/ugMmyjCdpoQ

... Nicely put together, Lending

- Hence the old adage: Profit is vanity, cash is sanity :)

"it was the person selling them shovels !"

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Yes, that side of the business I found v interesting. It's in one of my watchlists now.

Just back in at a screen and.... Well seems like SLP's couple of day's constipation is finally moving a stool. Wanted to see as much performance as possible before mid-week next week at the most. As mid January to v near the month end might be a bit iffy but then rescued somewhat by a final flourish in the last few single days. (IMOnly).

I'm most bullish for those last few single days that span 28th Jan to the 6th Feb than anything between now and then. But happy to be wrong as Feb is another great month after which I'll be reeling in my neck a bit.
Fed meeting at beginning of Feb too.