Member Info for Velo

Checking my emails tonight for the first time today and Simply Wall Street announce they have the first consensus updates for Dark, to hand. Overall it makes it a little dour reading.

My own data provider is providing a mixed bag with net profit actually increased at $29m for the full year. Waiting awhile until they settle as it's been adjusted daily at the moment then will re-post the forecasts for this year and next year now that they've changed and allow them to settle.

Anyway the S/Wall Street consensus view shows the mood is darkening (pardon the pun) amongst the brokers analysts with SP valuations dropping a full £ down into the £4 area. So expect any magazine write-up to follow suit with downbeat outlooks as they become available.

Sorry to hear of posters below selling up. Have to say I'm waiting patiently/angling for the signals to inform me to buy. Unfortunately the only two short term trends I employ that turned bullish in the run up to the trading update, have now turned bearish - so none at all in the bull camp now.

Intermediate trend turning bullish would have been the decider as medium and long term soon snap into line once the intermediate - but forbidden to make a move without my trends riding shotgun. Tsk!

Revenue performance has and continues to be extraordinary. The net profit from last year to this year is a massive increase and qualifies to be described as exponential. From 1.46m last year to v high 20m's this year. Next year is forecast to be in the 40m's!

Sonething doesn't add up here.

If the SP drops to a pittance - I'm in - trends or not. Just won't Over commit funds until I can figure out what the rip-off is here. At the moment all I can come up with is that it's sheer lack of years in existence for the market to tolerate any guidance that backtracks on prior promises. I think it's all overdone. It's what the market does. Swings from extreme sentiment to opposite extreme sentiment.

Stumpy - He's a life-long infamous private enterprise (millionaire) shorter. So he's 100% biased. Googled after your post to see how he's doing these days. Fatter than ever he'll explode one day. Read about him and Dark but he offers no insights at all - just short and sell.

Have you any access to his deeper thoughts on Darktrace? I think he's copycatting the hedgefunds. When they go long he will too.

And Happy New Ear to you too Shareminartor :)

Feel I recognise your ID from somewhere.

Anyway, clicked on your history but it didn't illuminate further.

However, can see from your history you're deep into miners etc., and hovered on your last post - a stock by the name of CAPD.

Laughed a bit when you thanked a poster (the only poster there) for his contributions - and realised that was a poster I recognised.

I laughed because it would appear he's the only castaway left adrift on his own in that forum, post after post only him and no signal from any passing freighter until you showed up. That other poster has been marooned there for half a dozen years.

I recognise him as a decent stock picker. So I looked into the stock you and he were interested in.

And what a little belter - can't fault it! A little winner.
- Anyway, are you in SLP or considering a position?

Before I turn in for the night a clip from an article that was reviewing Darktrace that highlighted a possibility that has now come true today -

"... There’s always a risk with growth companies when the market is relying on revenue figures. If one quarter’s revenue should come in even slightly behind expectations, we often see investors selling and running..."

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All that's needed is a few more years of this growth including a few peaks and troughs to build confidence in the market's perception that Dark can still deliver over obstacles. No one expects to only encounter perfect msrket conditions as if strong companies are too fragile to survive market downturns.

" The fact revenue has since doubled and the company is now comfortably cash flow positive suggests the current price is like being able to buy the IPO at 125p...

At £2 the market cap would be just £1.4b with over £400m net cash on the balance sheet, it may happen but I'd be surprised."

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Quite so Shearclass, quite so.

I think it's a marvelous company on balance sheet metrics alone, and can hardly believe the reaction to the trading update. An established company would not receive this firece a bearish reaction. However because it's a recent IPO the market has learnt to distrust an IPO at every new hurdle and not give the benefit of the doubt. Once a company becomes established and has seen it go through many trading peaks and troughs and yet still turn a pretty penny then the market gains confidence that a stock can overcome setbacks.

This is the curse of the early years of being an IPO.
The market thinks every little hurdle could build to become a catastrophic event.

Accidentally I came across a list of UK and US IPO's designated for launch in 2023. I will keep them in a watch list as each launches and idly watch them over the years for a) my own research and b) To see if they do that 50% thing and thus offer any opportunities. I do recall that research article I read a few months back (tried to find it tonight but can't - but Google threw up the 2023 lists) and in it said that many of the IPO's that suffer catastrophic falls below the launch price often went on to perform well after that big fall.

That suggests at prices somewhere below Dark's launch of 250 lies a bargain to end all bargains. I have no confidence that Dark is destined for 125. None! So I'm hoping I can retain some discipline and at least wait until the key trends turn to the upside first and I don't jump the gun. It's a terrific balance sheet! Terrific! However, the market has shown no mercy for the company coming in virtually on guidance despite a smidgen downward adjustment.

Taking on the market is a mistake for us PI's like standing in front of a locomotive telling it to turn left.
So unless one enjoys catching falling knives, I wait forlornly by the kerbside until the market gives me the permission I seek to buy.

This site (LSE) was down last night and didn't come back online until approx 8:30am-ish this morning.
I mention that because that upset may have spilled over to the closing prices for some stocks. My own feed is showing SLP with a close 108!

So checked the Stock Exchange itself and yep! - 108p close.

Take no notice of the lower figure on display on this site this evening. It happens now and then with this site.

Looking for the SP to continue with the big push. The SP can not, will not, be denied during Jan & Feb - bar the odd, occasional, temporary pullback.

" Why not 5p or .5p a share? "

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It's the curse of the IPO, Wiscos.

Here's the guideline:

Never, ever, never, never. never, buy an IPO stock on launch!
1st wait 6 months. If still mad about the girl, take a small stake, but research and statistics point to an overwhelming 50% retrace for the majority of IPO's (some worse) from the opening day's price on the float within 3 years (US data)

Yes, a tiny percentage go on to great things.

125 is the 50% line in Dark's case - IMO.
Dark is too successful (fundamentally) to go there before the 3 year average is up. So when I do buy it will be a small tranche initially then play it on trends.

Got to agree bobocca.

ll be a monkey's uncle if the SP doesn't get whacked round the back of the head tomorrow by a Mafia gang, whilst it's stood, handcuffed, near a shallow depression in the ground.

The performance is still a gain in the 30%+ area, ( revenue but staggerringly higher increaser for net profit) instead of as promised just a wee smidgen more, higher.

Had a 30%+ payrise?
Has everybody portfolio's in either the UK or the US increased 30%+ for 2022?
No?
Didn't think so. but from all angles, sentiment has returned uglier against this stock this morning. Despite that fantastic increase anyway!

Probably because the fear is whether the small discrepancy (and it is small) can be contained.

I'll be picking this stock up (not immediately) after all have committed Hari Kari.

I think the increase under all headings is top-drawer, but the market is determined to throw a hissy fit.

Can only see this performing poorly SP-wise. Too many long faces in the market.

PPS. '24 although a smidgen adjusted downwards is still overall showing a massive increase over the the expected' 23 ful year results. In other words over time all you will see in the results is year after year big gains! Thee are No losses!!!

No I really do have to go. :)

Tonight then.

PS. Footnotes in the update say revenue etc is UP 31% over last year! It's just that thigs are slowing up against prior expectations - but slowing the increase not going into reverse.

This site LSE has been down from last night to approx 8:30am this morning Hence a lot of posters might be on other chores unaware if they try now they'll get through.

The market is a manic depressive/excitable. It veers to way oversold to way overbought. In between Warren Buffett is on
the sidelines saying price is what you pay but value is what you eventually get.

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater!!!

1) Ful year revenue of over half a billion is going to be achieved say the company and yes the net profit will be so large it is exponential! (1.46m last year and way over 20m+ for this year ending in June '23).

Slight (v slight single reduction in v low millions to '24 forecast).

Way behind so will post tonight.

No net profit shown for H1 annoying! More work for posters.

If the day closes 20% down against last night's close take it as the market treating it as a full blown profit warning. But it's not a profit warning IMO. Revenue has come in, in line so has net profit. Give it time and the results will show a nice increase on revenue and profits for year ending June '23!

Meanwhile let the market enjoy soiling it' s knickers - the huge increase for '24 is only adjusted downwards by a smidgen.

Excellent précis Simon.
I guess a trading update has never been more eagerly awaited in ASOS's history.

Turning point - or turning of the screws?

Personally, I'll be looking for a close in the vicinity of 109 tomorrow, and perhaps run strongly with the ball thereafter, until the 16/17/18th in readiness for . . .

- Whoah! . . . Getting ahead of myself now.
Let's see how it behaves/performs up to that period first :)

So far, so good.

Gawd! he's hard work. Doesn't he have eyes to see?!?

The thread is for a SP forecasting game - THE THREAD only!

Not to be confused with the rest of the forum (read the subject header on each thread) where you can happily continue bury hatchets in the back of each other's head to your heart's content. You'll fit right in.

" Velo how many times do you think ASOS can go P\E? 12x? 15X ? 20X"

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Hi Deadstock,

I can only go with what data is currently before the market - before it all changes after the update.

Currently, a full-year Net Profit (not a loss) in earnings is showing as expected by the market - by end of Aug '23 full year and for that, the multiple is showing as P/E 20.5 right now.

Need the trading update before any further guessing.

More importantly, need a TTM - (Trailing 12 month calculation) which needs the H1
- AND will arm the market with an "an expectation" for the full year as it strips out all jam-tomorrow speeches that CEO's can lean on when in big trouble.

I should have that TTM to hand some days after the H1 reveal.

I have my own way of interpreting the TTM based on usage over the years which I will share soon after the trading update is published, if I'm about then, as busy whilst trying to post here.
- Bet the update comes out when I'm at the dentist's this week!

me @ "The current year is for Aug '23 - and next year is for Aug '24."
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Sorry Simon. I missed your reference to this year's H1. My mistake with that sentence. RNS has already stated H1 will likely be a loss - but no reference of that loss has been extended to affect the full year by Aug '23 (just that a loss in H1 is 'usual')

Looking forward to your entry for next week also, Hopeso.

See no reason why Roofer can't accept your entry for this week too.

The new rule (and only if accepted by roofer) should come into effect from next week - so your entry this week should stand, as you weren't to know.

It's not critical :) :)
- But it would be if we were all up for being awarded the Noble prize for best price guesser in the world :) or failing that, a lesser (sniff) Oscar.

" Asos is not going to make a profit for the current financial half year, and is unlikely to do so in 2023. "

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Hi Simon,

The current year is for Aug '23 - and next year is for Aug '24.

I have the market forecasts for '23 & '24.

Question is, will the trading update blow those out of the water, or will it confirm them as in line with previous guidance?

If the update is generally all 'in line' etc., etc., then currently net profit for year ending Aug 2023 is showing to expect £16.4m net profit (not a loss) and the trading year ending 2024 is also showing to expect £51.3m net profit

Both years anticipate revenue climbing out of the £3b's from last year, with '23 revenue showing as £4.057b and '24 revenue showing £4,399b.

H1 can be loss-making anyway, but can you confirm that you know the full year ending Aug 2023 WILL result in a net loss?

It could be the data I have is outdated and thus will be updated with this H1 update.

Anyway, is it official that year ending Aug '23 will result in another year's loss
- as the current data is still forecasting the year to end in profit.

I agree wholeheartedly with BushyTailed. I propose no later than 10:00am Monday mornings for those rushing to meet desdlines.

No one's thinking of the unending workload on Roofer.

The poor bloke has to scour and scour endlessly, less yet another late entry comes in days after the competition is half over. Let the bloke relax.
If Roofer knows all latecomers have to be in by 10:00am latest, he wouldn't have to update the list endlessly through the week. It's not fair on other contestants and it's certainly not fair on Roofer!

Bet there's not a person here, we're they in Roofer's shoes who wouldn't instantly refuse to scour and scour endlessly in case of missing someone out. Let this be the last late entrant that comes in days and days after the competition commences.

What do you think - 10:00am cut-off for at least allowing some leeway for late entries?