Member Info for Velo

Here’s what the market estimated forecasts are for this current trading year ending 2023
- and the following year ending 2024.

They need to be compared to what’s gone before to fully savour the turnaround in the estimated forecasts to come. Especially the glorious 2024 estimate. The only question is, can the market trust the veracity of the estimates from the company, or do you have any more up to date insights based on facts that counter the estimates?

So, I’ll post a quick resume of past glories/disasters first and then the two forecasts:

Revenue for past couple of years:

31/8/17 = £1924m
2018 = £2417m
2019 = £2734m
2020 = £3264m
2021 = £3911m
2022 = £3937m

See anything untoward in the most recent years Revenue achieved?
No?
Neither do I.

So let’s look at the forecast estimated Revenues for the next 2 years:

Revenue forecasts:
2023 = £4067m
2024 = £4424m

Again nothing to alert you to expect trouble. In fact, where did the pandemic make an impact on Revenue on any of the above prior years? It didn’t. No dips at all anywhere. Revenue is still growing year-on-year!

- - - - - -

So it must show up in the bottom line then, the Net Profits? -

Net Profit:
31/8/17 = £64.1m
2018 = £82.4m
2019 = £24.6m
2020 = £113.0m
2021 = £128.0m
2022 = X £30.8m LOSS! X

Well apart from a dip in 2019, only last year showed where the trouble was.

So is it all down to oversold sentiment? Let’s see if the forecast estimate Net Profits show anything resembling a recovery. As the SP appears locked in a viscous downtrend there surely must be worse to come -

Net Profit Forecasts:
2023 = £20.6m
2024 = £52.7m

Well, this current year is at least declaring some Net Profits albeit the poorest showing in recent years - but look at year ending 2024! Surely that denotes a confirmed expectation of back to substantial Net Profits and well on the way to rivalling prior achievements should that trend continue?

A lot to like in next Year’s forecast but is the market questioning the veracity of the estimated figures will ever be achieved by maintaining a falling SP valuation? Over to you.

What do you know in recent news that will derail the next 2 years positive forecasts?

Part 2 (concludes) >

. . . Should the SP retrace to the £5 border then it becomes even more enticing, but a pullback into the 400’s even if it’s only the upper 490’s would qualify IMO.

- And then I would monitor it daily with my lower, shorter-term trends lest a small bull trend escape my attention.

It would still be risky so any purchase by me would initially be small scale as there’s many a false breakout that comes to naught. Could just be another trough to match the prior high, before another even lower trough ensues, but I think there is a case to be made that the long-term trend is starting to resemble a plane coming into land. Is the trend, bending?

But as of tonight, the situation is still a clear no-buy from me. But a nice situation may be developing anyway. I’m keen to see how it turns out.

=======

Might have time tonight to reply to your earlier request for fuller details of the trading forecasts, that the market is already expecting for '23 and '24

- if not, then will post them tomorrow.

Maybe part 1 (of 2)

“ @Velo, what's your target price for buying in (if at all)? “
- - - - - - - - -

Hi Ubik_Fresh,

I don’t have target price entries nor target price exits, because I am at heart a committed Trend Follower. However, I am aware that it may appear from random posts of mine that I do have them. But they are mentions of prior highs, pivot points, and such like.

Long-term trends are the safest decision-maker for me.

When they’re bullish - buy.
When they’re bearish -sell.
Or part-sell and go to cash/ or if brave enough, short
- or seek new opportunities.

That and the not quite as long-term 200-day Moving Average price. When both the long-term trends and the 200 are sloping upwards AND price is above them
- then it’s safe to dive in anywhere.

It’s when they cross to the upside that I buy and you can’t forecast the exact price when they do that. Kind of takes the pressure of you. Relaxing even. The same in reverse dictates (no other word for it) when it’s time to sell. Easy as ABC. But you need iron-clad personal discipline. Something I’m always working on to improve.
Below that I have a variety of numerous Medium, Interim, Short-term and Ultra-short-term trends to give advance guidance in either direction.
Long-term trends can sometimes last years, so one can be confused with being a long-term holder.

But there is a catch. It’s not for everyone, as I’ll explain in a mo’.

ASC is still as of tonight in a long-term serious downtrend - and is defo not a buy. Any posts by those saying “I’m buying because it’s now a bargain” and then offer no systematic process/ or strategy to validate their decision-making, other than they 'feel' it’s the right time, is akin to being a Riverboat Gambler and will ultimately IMO result in disappointment if a stock is in a serious long term downtrend.
'Treat the market like a casino and it'll treat you back like a gambler.
Treat it like a farmer would his land and the market will reward you with bountiful crops.'

Never go long in a downtrend! (Wait till it turns!)

Now here’s the catch. This downtrend is so deep and so ferocious that in my estimation, once ASC turns-around and breaks out to the upside the long-term trend is so generous that I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t turn bullish until the SP had first cruised up to £10/11 or so! (If it was an explosive breakout).
If it becomes range-bound for months then maybe only a £1 or so above today’s price before turning bullish.

And that calls for iron-clad discipline to remain on the sidelines.

However, the reason I posted today is that there could be (only could/ or maybe) the potential for one of the most reliable turnaround signals developing - a double-bottom. The first bottom is that 460 back in mid October. Should the SP retrace to the £5 border then it becomes even more enticing, but a pullback into the 400’s even if it’s only the upper 490’s would qualify IMO.

Continues > > >

@ Ubik_Fresh

- Revenue and Net Profit market future estimates are from subscription based sources ie., Stockopedia/ Sharepad.

In this case Stockopedia have collated them..

I’m most interested in the April actual H1 reveal because then I can contrast and compare to what’s known as the TTM (Trailing 12 month forecast) as it gives a good idea for the full year likely result based on the H1. I don’t physically compile it myself but instead, leave it to the algo’s to compute and thus eliminate any unintended errors on my part.

Shout out if you want the figures for ‘23 &’24 as busy right now, as they need to be compared to the prior years achievements, and not in isolation, before it can be appreciated how bullish they look by comparison to what has gone before (not difficult with a £30b loss last year) - so could post all figures later on if you wish, as I don’t intend posting here regularly as don’t yet have a position in ASOS.

12th Jan for the trading update! - thanks Scallop, appreciated.
Saves me trailing through websites & RNS’s (a day earlier than L/year then).

Yesterday Biden gave one of the most bullish presentations I’ve not heard from any western leader, since well before the pandemic broke out.

He said US inflation latest data shows inflation has dropped whilst many in Europe are coping with double-figure inflation forecasts.
US food prices have dropped. (We can only dream of that).
And fuel prices have dropped in the last quarter too.
US employment figures have increased, lowering the number out of work.

Of course he took the credit but warned against complacency and more work needed to continue the improving trends.

US media is full of the improving economic outlook in the US confirming Biden’s reveal.

That’s why I sided with a few of the experts opinion of a half percent rate increase to be split in two, with maybe a 25 basis point rise today (or in our case - tonight after 7pm our time) and the FED to postpone the other 25 basis point rise until the next FED meeting in 2023.

Although counter to that, some experts say all the more reason to hit hard with the full 0.5% increase, in case the market now throws caution to the wind thus losing the current improvement gains in inflation et al.

I believe as per last year their will be a trading update in January and then the interim H1 results released in April?
If anyone knows different to the January trading update please post relevant date.

The January trading update could be decisive if on track to meet the current forecasts. So please gimme that sub £5 before the month is out. No rush. In your own time. But the sooner the better. :)

Isestocks23 - Have you seen the current market forecasts for revenue and net profit? (I have them to hand if not). Unbelievably fantastic, so surprised SP still falling as usually the market prices in the future yet the SP is still falling. An opportunity forming? Or unrealistic forecasts the market disapproves of?

"With the slight drop in both UK and US, I would have thought this would have risen this morning - any views?"
--------

Scallop:
Bare in mind that there's supposed to be the last Fed meeting today in the US where the expectation is that interest rates might be increased by a further 25 basis points. As the UK and the rest of the international community usually follow suit then the UK would announce perhaps a small increase also. Usually within 7 days of Fed announcements. Good for cash savers but turns the screws tighter on stocks with heavy debts. And the current net debt in ASOS is at an all time record high of half a £billion where in years past in it ran no debt - in fact the opposite it often ran in surplus!

Plus all trends are resolutely bearish so just par for the course. However should the SP drop to the £5 border I can be persuaded to see a potential for a double bottom forming but for a true margin of safety I would buy instantly if the SP revisited the sub £5 area when it it dipped to 460 back a few months ago - 490's would do it for me if you could kindly arrange it :) then I'd be in like a rat up a drainpipe!

Yep, I’ll be buying too; you can’t go far wrong whilst the long term trend is bullish; dive in anywhere - but I’ll be attempting so, in the last chance saloon
- from next week, before prices start living with serious intent above £1, once again.

The last chance saloon?
- I reckon that period to be between the 19th to the 27th and may/may not present the last opportunities of the year. (That’s not a trend thing, but a stat thing). So with a Christmas weekend in the way, less days for a temporary pullback/flat period to occur.

(Expecting this week to the 16th to finish strongly, despite the chance of a small Fed interest-hike rate announcement tomorrow - which our banks always more or less, copycat).

No chance of a bargain buy later on, between the expected v bullish period of 28th Dec through to the 6th Jan of the following year and probably history for ever seeing the 80’s again - certainly not in either Jan or Feb, that’s for sure - or as sure, as sure can be sure :)

However, I do have a question mark over that 19th -27th period.
No more than that - barely 50/50 question.

Have an 80’s limit-buy order forlornly running in the background, but will take anything in the 90’s before the £1++ area becomes the new de-facto “normal”.

Then intend to rebuild my position in my main account as no more funds in the current SLP holding that resides in a smaller account - which I would have added to whilst in the 80’s etc., to bring that average down - but couldn’t. Annoying having to do it in a separate account.

Morning Roofer; hope I can still squeeze in at the eleventh hour, with my entry for the 16th of:

88.5

All trends are now signalling a continuance for a bullish push in the SP. For the first time since May 2021, I'm now seeing the following:

SLP Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH

Long term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = BULLISH

The SP expectations for Jan & Feb are now so extraordinary bullish I dare not post my view on what they are likely to be for fear of jinxing them. But I'm thinking big increases and to channel D. Trump: "Like you wouldn't believe!" LOL!

PS Wasn't expecting to be over £1 this early in December so treating it as inter-month high if it should it pull back to the high 90's. So if the SP remains and continues above £1 for all of December then I am in error and that would put my prognosis for Jan & Feb in error too.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11504829/Vodafone-boss-Nick-Read-ousted-shares-slump-20-year-low.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-05/vodafone-chief-executive-nick-read-will-step-down-at-year-end

" What are we expecting with the sp today?"
----------------
- GAMECHANGER!

Busy now. Laters - if I can......

Have to hit the road tomorrow, so posting my Dec 9th SP entry now.

Will also be v late posting next week on the way back - but anyway for this coming week ->

I'd like to deposit > > > 90p < < < as my entry.

- Thanks Roofer.

Sheffield, I'll be quick as just having a break in getting ready for hitting the road north tomorrow.

I did leave out that only buy-backs below intrinsic value would be an allowable caveat. One experienced poster on here provided figures to support his view that the SP was where it was because it deserved to be as it was only worth 84p or so.

Hmm. Debatable what others might come up with, but from your POV that would pass the main buyback test.

The other was focusing more on ROE as a monitoring metric to see how that fares after buybacks - rather than focusing on movements in earnings per share as most analysts are prone to do.

It should also be examined with some sceptisicim if managements are incentivised with bonuses if EPS increases are due to buybacks.

Buyback shares should be regulated and mandated so that they remain part of shareholders funds as an equity accounted asset.

It's not a biggie with me as SLP management draw no ire from me.
But on a matter of principle I always dislike share buybacks.

In most cases (but not SLP) it often leads to lost value for shareholders. A cash alternative to shareholders should be shown in proposals so shareholders can consider whether they should have the cash or disperse it as an investment in share buybacks that range outside of staff incentive bonuses.

re: Dividends

@ Sheffield
- Dividends have usually (in recent years) only ever been paid annually.

The April dividend paid earlier this year was labelled by the company in its RNS (See RNS window above) as a "windfall" payment. Other companies on the whole, usually refer to such items as one-off "special" dividend payments.

However, both mean exactly the same thing - it's a one-off thing and you're not to expect it to become a regular ongoing thing.
Hence all monitoring agencies ignore and omit that April payment as part of the whole dividend yield.

It could easily be a regular payment if the company ceased the pointless share buy-back scheme. I would accept the share buy-back scheme in principle if it was for internal awards regarding incentives and bonuses etc., Shares held and not deleted. But the amounts now go way past that.

In effect, it reduces shareholder value as they are often not left on the books. Liquidity in the SP can often be seen to be excessive in the often wide margins. Although to be fair when I've clicked buy or sell, all that wide margin disappears and I've always been offered tidy and acceptable prices
- but in principle, I'm dead set against company share buybacks.

Some big-name investing gurus hold similar views as I've just expressed regarding share buybacks - that the net effect is to erode investor value - so keep an eye on the ROE! (Return On Equity metric).

Hi and welcome Ripper,
Fascinating précis you gave there.

- Your first post in 10 years! Way to go! :)

I want to practice more of keeping my own counsel in 2023 with fewer posts. A mate is encouraging me to do so also, as well as reading of it as a best practice, elsewhere too.

To my knowledge, 7p makes you the 2nd lowest SP holder, posting on these boards, and by definition of the price, either the longest holder here, or maybe the second longest holder.
If the reason you signed up on LSE was only to monitor your holding then 7p suggests you first bought it on the way down as this stock only listed in 2011 and immediately fell foul of the last crash in PGM markets. Or like the record lowest-priced holder on here (6p) you maybe bought on the emergence of the long spectacular rise commencing circa 2016 or so.

Your one post and 2012 joining date suggest you bought earlier than the current best-priced (2016 @6p) poster on here.
I wouldn’t mind hearing how your emotions/sentiment fared through the big crash in SLP’s SP that commenced straight after the all-time high in May 2021 and technically is still in force, but IMO only, according to my longer term trends is just about done, and gearing up to exit this malaise with sails set in full force if Jan & Feb show some resilience to that end.

Perhaps unnoticed by some is the myth-busting (or conversely urban myth building:) results you relate in your post.
What is in every single investing book that was ever written? Only to research stocks yourself and never - never ever, take stock tips from well-meaning friends, neighbours, or a bloke down the local pub. And what set you on this road to riches undreamt of? LOL!

- All on a tip from a bloke down the pub!
Please, please, say he had a dog with him.

And then at parties, I can say: Oh but it does happen, I once met an investor who got a got a stock tip that led to riches galore when he went to see a man about a dog, down the pub! LOL!!

The other thing is - despite people like myself who are convinced that buy and hold is now a thing of the past, that you did it by doing just that - long-term buy and hold - you’ve hit jackpot status.

You Sir, join Stoodio in the hero’s gallery that’s hung up dahn the pub! :)

“ Speech Speech!!!! Full list will follow “
-----------

Thanks for the great introduction Roofer . . . :

Ahem, unaccustomed as I am to public speaking -
- ‘Allo! ‘Allo! Canyou’earme?

Psst! Psst! Yeah . . . They can’t hear me.
Ahem . . . Testing, testing.
Testing-one-two-three!

Is it working now?
Psst! They’ve got their hands over their ears and pulling faces.
Wot’s that? The high-pitched whining is acoustic feedback?
Eh? What? Move the microphone away from the speakers?

I am doin’ - but nuthin’s happening mate! - You what? I can’t hear you. What you sayin’?
It’s not accousric feedback after all? Tsk! What then?
It’s MY voice that’s making the high pitched whiney sound?

YOU WHAT?!? !@!#!

BOOM.

Oooh! Oh! Ahh great, you can all hear me now. Good. Grrrr. . .

Ha. Anyway. Good evening ladies and gentlemen.
First I’d like to thank my agent, my manager, and my PA who have all . . .
- They’re covering their ears again! !

What ferkin' whiney voice?!? If you say that one more time!
You mean YOU’VE got a whiney voice!
Come and say that to my face then!
Oh they can hear me again . . .

SheffieldO - Have you checked again? I did and -

- Nuthin' @ lunchtime in mine.
- Nuthin' by mid/late afternoon either.
- Checked @ 6pm just now and . . . Jackpot! It's in :)

Think they're feeding you a c@ck and bull story over postal strike delays.

No one sends that amount of huge volume cheques in the post to central brokers with thousands of clients - it's all done online surely?

It made me think you were all getting extra large brown envelopes delivered with soft bulging contents and when opened bundles and bundles of £20 notes cascaded out - Soprano's style.

Maybe it's me, but I think the snail-mail response to your enquiry is their version of the lame: "The cheques in the post".

Of us all, on this forum, you must be expecting the largest receipts of all.
So worth it to your broker's to keep your share over the weekend for the interest they'll earn (along with other clients) and say on Monday:
'Oh the post's just arrived, we'll be sending it on to you by tomorrow latest'.

Some broker's do occasionally get delayed by slow arriving receipts from the companies - but if the same broker is consistently late in paying you, your rightful dividends - in comparison to other brokers, then they've got a policy of feathering their own cashflow, by gaining a couple of day's interest on a regular basis.

What do they mean it's held up by the Royal Mail strike?

Just had a book delivered today by private courier (Cyber Monday offer). Yet a broker dealing perhaps in £millions and £millions is in a system that relies on the ol' snail mail???

I'd have told them to pull the other one - and yelled:
SHOW ME THE MONYEEEE!

Talking of the Soprano's - no I won't finish that sentence :) :) :0

@ Corryvreckan1,

Gosh I'm tired tonight, with time only to say: Thank you Corryvreckan1.
- It's December today, so never too early to wish a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, to you and your family.