Member Info for Velo

And if you don't possess the ability to be regarded as one of the best genius investor's that has ever lived, like Warren Buffett, but are a mere mortal average Joe, investor - then yet another quote runs:
----

" The easiest, way to make money is to hold stocks in bull market uptrends.
- The easiest way to lose money is to hold stocks through bear markets".

However when I mess up even that, my fall back position is this:

"The best way to double your money is to fold it in two and put it in your back pocket"
??

" If it goes lower - buy more."
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Neah - that's gambling! And reminds of . . .

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.

If it don't go up, don't buy it".

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:) :) :)

Quote is by an American comic (Will Rogers) from the black and white movie era of the 1930's.

Damn! Cut off 2 letters short.

Here they are, found them on the carpet near my feet
- So here's a free "c" and here's the free "e" to conclude the post below.

You’ve most likely had your last ‘bargain’ chance in September, Luna.

It’s why I took that reasonably cheap 86p offer in Sept and sold it on the evening before it went Ex-Dividend to capitalise on the small-ish profit for a 13% gain, and banked it back then
- and took a chance on re-buying a penny less for 85p (limit order still running throughout December too) sometime in November. But it wasn't to be. Think it dipped only as low as 88/89. Not important that I didn’t gamble again
- gambling isn’t part of the strategy.

However, that wasn’t the sole reason I sold. I’m strictly only adhering to when the SP is safely within ALL of my personal bullish trend parameters, so as to avoid the catastrophe of being asleep at the wheel as I was last summer (May '21 onwards).

Prevented myself from re-buying at any price unless it was another ultra-low bargain - until all trends were in alignment. This means (daft as it sounds) I could for example end up paying £1 on the last trading day of December once the final Long Term Trend moves into place - and I would be happy to do so.

By the way that’s the very last trend, I’m waiting to see break to the upside. The others are already there! Price is already above the predominant 200 day trend - and for the first time - repeat - for the very first time since the summer of '21 until now - has actually ceased descending and is on the verge of rising again, phoenix like. That would complete all options to the upside. I’m guessing it’ll do so sometime well into December. And that would mean SLP’s safari in the slums is over.

86p was a gamble on my behalf, but if trends are right by the end of December as I firmly expect - then whatever the price even if a £1 by then - it would be good for me.

Look LOL! - It all makes sense to me :) :)

I’ve had to strip dividends out of my charting software to reveal the last laggard - the Long Term Trend still hasn’t cleanly crossed to the upside, as It already has with dividends left in the price, and a multitude of other variants on Long Term Trend versions. However, the Long Term Trend I adhere to, is almost there; almost - and I’ve paid the price many times by ‘jumping ahead’ so instead of trend following I’d jump into forecasting trends.

Big mistake. To be clear - if that final trend does not cross to the upside before January, I will class my post below as invalid and post a retraction - and NOT buy - and capitulate to Bangrak’s permabear stance that it ain’t going much above a £1.

However, I think it will go way above a £1 in both Jan AND Feb (I intend to take profits by March 1st) as I have my main holding untouched in another account (ISA).

After December concludes (and with hindsight :) there will have been a bargain price somewhere in December.

Question is Luna - will you see it - and will you take it?

No one can forecast what that low of December will be. I don’t care as said, instead I follow the trend and let others brood over pri

SP looks to be gearing up for freedom-to-roam & run-free ahead of demob day on Friday when the big divi payments are doled out. Price should then run freely after that, as SP is released out of the manually restrictive XD period completely on Friday.

Again not expecting too much from December, but enough.

Should the SP close higher than it is tonight then that would slightly and pleasingly exceed my expectations for November.

The biggest gains of the year (and possibly next year's too) I expect to show up in Jan and Feb :)

In fact, I'm setting great store in those 2 months. I'm looking out for a lot of high expectations; in Jan & Feb alone :)

After that, I don't expect the SP to continue to the same high momentum.

Speculative I know, but even the odd news items are aligning with the stars. Even SLP permabear Bangrak in his recent post here, took time off from counting cars leaving Chinese factories to post the research he's uncovered revealing to expect an early push to the topside in the new year; I agree!

£1 is soon to be behind as dust, even though it's yet to be lasooed, hog-tied, bagged and shipped out; it's already ancient history in my world.

Or from the experience of Warren Buffett on how he puts it:

" “I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”

:)

Room for one more?

91p thanks

And finally as promised, a look at future earnings, which surprisingly look astonishingly bullish.

- First a recent-years recap:

And a quick overview of the top line Revenue from 2013 to 2022 reveals a moribund performance with the whole of that entire period remaining locked in the €40b’s, ranging from the bottom half of the 40’s up to the higher end of the 40’s.
And not in a linear fashion that would denote growth - but all over the shop from year to year.

Safe to say, it shows an ex-growth performance (so divi’s very important as the antidote) with annual revenue locked inside the decile that makes up the €40b’s range.

- - - -

Now Earnings:
Nasty but true, but the 10 years of results since 2013 to 2022, reveal 4 of those years with some very nasty losses. So no wonder the SP has had a tough time of things over the years.

Just recently 2019 closed with a whopping €8b Net Loss followed by 2020 and a more modest €0.9b loss.

2021 turned the tide with a small Net Profit of €0.1b

Followed-up by a very impressive 2022 performance close, of a massive €2b Net Profit!
(Although €2b+ Net profits and then some, have been seen in further back years).

And the future looks even better according to market estimates. This current trading year (2023) is/was penciled-in to produce a €2.9b Net Profit

I say ‘was’ because after H1 that is now more likely (TTM methodology) to turn in (a still whopping) only a €2.0b Net Profit!

Are the days of regular hiccups of producing the odd net loss over?
Because -

2024 is penciled-in to still be going for the €3b target to produce €2.9b Net Profit!

Both those years are each estimated to remain in the mid €40b’s as regards Revenue.

So despite Net Debt being a cause for concern in most quarters what’s being overlooked is that Net Profits estimates of €2b++ is now the new order of the day for the immediate future; and no waiting!

It’s on the cards. VOD has only to deliver it now. And better be no hanky panky before getting there!

That’s about it from me.

——————

Will try to keep my own counsel from now on, as an investment/trading tactic (although I carry some strong VOD trend direction views and potential SP danger areas) until the full-year results are published next year to see if any of the above/and Net Debt targets get bettered or come in worse.

In the meantime, I will take a bash at participating in Roofer’s pricing competition.

“. . . However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above. “

————————

I want to now mention the ANNUAL Net debt, for each year.

To date, the market has gone into panic mode over this year’s half-year H1 Net Debt.
Well, they should prepare themselves for a stroke when they get an eyeball of several years worth of full-year annual net debts. LOL!

Proof positive that the media is short-sighted, because if they’ve gone ape-shht over €45.5b then they have retained no memory of all the past years' average higher full years worth of Net Debt.

To recap these were the prior years' H1 Net Debts, but next to them I’ve now supplied the full-year Net Debt that each year accrued -

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2020 = €54.2b

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2021 = €52.7b

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2022 = €54.6b

So you can see in each of the preceding 3 years, the average €45b half-year Net Debt ended each year, almost €8b or €9b higher than the H1 values.

That’s the average full-year - the lower mid-half 50’s of €53.8b

I draw your attention to this because I expect more panic at the full-year results next spring, so be ready to ask why they thought a yearly average of between €52b to €54b Net Debt was tolerated - but why not now?

Now all that was assuming that this current year was also going to come in with “similar” full-year Net Debt. However, it was my turn for a shock. According to the TTM method of estimates for the full-year Net Debt, I’m looking at a full-year Net Debt in the region of €60.8b!

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b
Net Debt ‘forcast’ (TTM) Fullyear ending 2023 = €60.8b

I don’t have an answer for that except to say look at the fantastic earnings increase for the next 2 years that I will reveal in the next post. Could the expected huge increase in earnings be part of the defense as to why Net Debt may or may not hit €60b by this trading year’s end?

Finally to counter all that, take a look in my final post next, at the great increase in earnings estimates the market expects over the next 2 years > > >

On Nov 16th I posted comments referring to the net debt in the H1 trading update released that day.
I still had more to say but as it had gone midnight and I was far from home, I decided to leave it until I returned.

This is a bit late now, but here is the conclusion to my findings on Net Debt so it’s important the original post links to this conclusion.

Why?
Because every single review and criticism from media journos and the like, commenting on the Net Debt has utterly missed the continued similarity of Net Debt and yet all are in uproar at the “sudden” / “ballooning” of the Net Debt to €45b at H1.
And that’s a false and erroneous view to take because . . .

- NET DEBT IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS 3 YEARS OF H1 Net Debt amounts!

It’s not a new issue that’s only raised its head this year, why then so many panic-strewn reports and posts as if this has come flying out of the blue? It hasn’t. See for yourself:

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b

Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b

The average for the 3 years prior (‘20 to ‘22) to the ‘23 H1 that was released last week is €45.3b

- So you can see the current year’s H1 is almost a perfect mean average making 4 years of H1's similarity.

It has not suddenly shot up out of control, it’s stayed almost exactly the same for a number of years now.

Where is the sudden “out-of-control ballooning” of Net Debt? And why are so many keen to make you think it is a brand-new problem?

It’s a fact that in a bull market, growth stocks are welcomed when they build up debt - but in a bear market, the market rotates out of debt-laden stocks and into value stocks. So I understand the angst.

But show me why it’s worse this H1 than the previous 3 years because it isn’t worse - it’s very, very, similar!

Net Debt doubled a couple of years ago at the time VOD bought Liberty Global’s towers in Germany & Europe et al. Think they paid about €21b which was added straight onto the Net Debt, effectively doubling it.

That was the time for the outcry! Far too late to ram it down investors' throats now as if it’s a helpful service to VOD investors.

However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above.
It involves the full year Net Debts.

After that, a post on the fantastic, almost unbelievable, " sudden" :) :) huge earnings increase in market estimate forecasts that are due over the next 2 years > > >

Hi Roofer,

Roofer, you’ve got to be kinder to yourself - and iWeb.
As soon as I saw the time stamp on your post announcing the winner I knew what the problem was. You don’t have to run after the posters on this forum as soon as.
Get yourself a cuppa first, they can wait until later in the evening - or even Sat or Sunday.

I know how much time these things can intrude on compilers such as yourself of these contests. Even iWeb needs time. This site the longest time (up to 15 minutes at its worst).

So why not go to the font of all true knowledge? The source to the rest of the world of London prices?

The London Stock Exchange itself!

The VOD SP is free – and everything on earth first derives its data from the LSE.
Here’s the link to add to your bookmarks:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/VOD/vodafone-group-plc/company-page

- But please let the London Stock Exchange update the after-hours auctions the ropey uncrossed trades (UT’s at 4:35pm) etc., and allow all the computers to breathe and balance the day’s chaos.

Stay away from anything that is timed in the 4:30’s.

4:50 pm is it - but 5pm puts all debates to bed.
Bet you a £1 your iWeb data source is now tuned to the same as this site and the London Stock Exchange. Even Google and Yahoo get it wrong although they’re much better these days.

And I second Robleo’s sentiment to you of:
“. . . and thanks for your hard work “.

Yes, seconded! :)

2 other posters both posted 93p (just 0.6p out from a bullseye).

- surely they are the joint winners?

You should never take any close on this site before 4:50pm as it can run up to 15 minutes behind the actual prices, and the balancing of the 4:35 auction books.

So say 5pm as a more definite cut-off point, as I've seen them take that long too.

PPS, To the below post.

- Despite the good news of OPERATING Cashflow (not to be confused with FCF (Free Cashflow) being more than sufficient to meet debt repayments for both VOD AND BT - Both have terrible liquidity ratios. Terrible!

Now that does confuse the hell out of me! Tsk! How can that be?
Must be Schrodinger's Cat syndrome and all that :)

- F'king financial accountants and their above-the-line and below-the-line stuff

Hi Mulder,

Yes, hadn’t compared to others so until you pointed it out, I didn’t realise VOD had the more manageable “NET” Debt ratio; so thanks for highlighting that fact.

However . . .
- must take issue with the wildly incorrect (IMO) BT ratio; so have to ask what data supplier are you using for your debt metrics?
Or is it I, that has it all incorrect?

Is it the Morning Star website you use or somesuch (as you include a couple of US stocks for comparison?)

I used another data supplier besides my expensive subscription package data supplier and both have nowhere near the poor result you lay at BT’s door.

In fact I see quite a difference to VOD’s that you show, but your overall assertion seems to hold that VOD is the best debtor ratio of a bad bunch of debtors, so to speak. : )

Didn’t bother with the US stocks after finding BT wildly inaccurate (so inaccurate I expect you’ll be hearing from Fleccy :)

Firstly, you have to compare like with like.
And Net debt to equity can only be reasonably accepted if the very latest trading results are used. I very much doubt they all have the same H1 dates although BT’s dates are pretty close to VOD’s.

Secondly, which debt metrics did you use because they all differ vastly.

1) Did you use Long Term Debt?

- or did you include Capital Lease Obligations which can massively increase the amount to give the -

2) TOTAL Long Term Debt?

- Or more confusingly the

3) Total Debt which is higher than any of the above? ( €70B for last full year! )
[One more post coming on the weekend on that amount).

When in my view, the more pertinent debt is –

4) The NET Debt?

I see VOD as 109.44% ie., 1.09
Which is a much better performance than your 1.7

BT which you show as a terrible 3.3 I have as 130.31% ie., 1.30

So yes, VOD is still the better net debt to equity participant– but both stocks are much higher than the generally accepted 50% debt leverage point, beyond which red flags are raised on both stocks.

So both draw criticisms but BT’s red line crosses is deemed the more guilty player.

The main take-away is that despite VOD’s large net debt it is still well covered by Operating Cash Flow.

Please don’t think I know more than this post suggests. I don’t.
(I have access to data subscription packages that give me a helping hand).

PS.
Like VOD, BT’s Operating Cashflow also easily covers debt repayments.

-------------

BUT I would still like to know how you arrive at such an horrendous Net Debt to equity ratio for BT, as it’s only a little worse than VOD’s ratio.

Vod
Posts below are a bit late (years) in condemning Net Debt.

Net Debt is hardly any different to the past 3 years!

This will make 4 years of very similar Net Debt.

Similar - not shockingly worse!

A relatively small reduction in earnings has been issued. Over €1.5billion was previously forecast.
Today that has been lowered but it's still circa €1.5billion!
Yes, down a few low hundred million. Not down a billion but a few hundred million.

Technically the wording is being regarded as a profit warning. However I have a ton of data on profit warnings and the average one day fall after such announcements is 20%+) usually more) in most cases, but the lowest comes in at circa a 15% drop. VOD has done approx a one day 8p/8% drop.

That is not a typical profit warning reaction!

Should the SP go on to drop the equivelant of 20% from Monday's close then I'd be prepared to make a special case for VOD and treat it as a proper profit warning. And that opens up a whole new can of worms. And that's another subject (post is long enough :) it

Been on the motorway all day so tired now after studying the past 3 years almost identical net debt so not posting them but will wait to see if the next 2 years estimates (by analysts) of fantastic Net Profits get adjusted down and will post those soon (couple of weeks)

But at the moment the huge net profits forecast for the next 2 years are still the same.

Probably will come down a bit, but not much by the sound of things; because -

Revenue is up for H1
So is Operating Profit.

However Net Profit is a little down on last year. Just a little only, though.

But Net Debt is approx over €1b higher. When you're talking about the past 3 years being in the lower end €40b's then €44b last year/€45b this H1, which is still in the lower 40's, is hardly the end of the world is it?

Key is how the SP reacts in the coming days. Needs to drop at least another 8p yet again (and then some; that's the bare minimum required) to become a more serious concern before it can be regarded as a propa' pannicky profit warning.

Haven't worked out a floor yet (tired)

(And need to see analysts new 2 year replacement forecasts based on today's news) so please keep the bearish posts coming so I can consider getting a bargain-priced small tranche in the margin of safety category :)

“ Have developments changed your mind about this one Velo, or do you think this is just a 'dead cat bounce . . .'?

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Hi B/BlahDoh,

Nope.
In fact, still concerned about poor liquidity. Last accounts revealed insufficient profit being produced to meet/cover interest payments.
(Shorters aren’t sniffing around because they blindly used pot luck by spinning a roulette wheel to decide: who’s next?) If they’re reducing then perhaps, they’re reducing risk as they near their personal forecasts of true valuation?

Last year’s highest ever record Net Debt of £32.4m is likely to be in triple figures this year at circa probably £121m !

Don’t think it’s a case of a dead cat bounce but more of repeating, mini-rallies (occurring on numerous occasions on the way down) since the big retrace in the SP first commenced way back this time last year – this has been just another ‘false’ mini-rally and is likely over now. (Probably the best rally so far in that period).

I expect the SP will revert to descending next week/weeks.

I was allowing it to rise as high as that £24 in mid-August, to see if it could break past that prior high – but like all the other rallies, none of them have yet bested their nearest previous highs. That’s very telling. It’s how we get trapped as investors, salivating to ourselves:
“Ooohh 25% gain, it’s over! Must consider buying/ getting back in/ topping up” etc., etc.,

Would have expected a levelling off by now, but sadly, it’s still locked in a fierce downtrend.

Think there’ll be a new CEO by this time next year, or at the very least he’ll be serving out his notice whilst they complete a head hunt for a replacement CEO. I think he’s toast. He’s wasted funds appealing court cases instead of getting on with things. More interested in protecting his ego than in manning-up.

PS.
“(and I'm "boring boy poster of the year").
- - - - - - -

That was the auto carrot on my phone; thought I’d typed:

‘Roaring Roy roaster of the bear’
: )

Still, if you’re adamant all will come out well, I’ll still be keeping tabs on this stock and post if I change my opinion. It’s my only interest in this stock now
– seeing if the SP can find a floor/ consolidate and identifying that asap near to that occasion if/when it does so.

Good luck!

"... The days of below 300 seem to over for ever now , and Dark is buying its own shares , would not be surprised to see Dark over 400 p very soon ! ..."

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There have been numerous rallies like the current budding rally, all of which mostly failed to break out past significant previous highs.

Whilst 400 would gain my attention, it would only make me question my viewpoint if it broke clearly above 400 as currently I don't expect the SP to make it as far as 400 and more likely to succumb before that point.

If I thought the retrace was over, I too would buy in the 350's now. But there are several targets the SP must overcome first to be sure of that. Which means taking a risk at some point of course otherwise waiting for belts and braces safety would mean letting low prices rise and escape away.

All IMO only of course.

I liked the cut of her jib, her outlook. Have a distant curiosity from the £10 to £7 days and loosely ever since, bemoaning not attempting to short when it fitted the bill.

Don't think the SP is done retracing yet. Will see if it now curls over again and if so take a position if it retests the current 275 floor for a modest amount in case I'm wrong and the retrace is not nearing it's ultimate floor.

A company that after years of net losses is now in nice net profits - forecast to continue with notable increases estimated over the next 2 years for both revenue and net profit.... If... if ... Poppy delivers.

By the way, astonishing single day monster volumes in both directions and immediate effects upon price. Is that Lynch? Somebody (or Dark Destroyer?) Is manipulating the price on the market - legally I might add. Those record level odd single day volumes are deep pocket hedge funds but the regularity suggests one main protagonist.

Whatever, there's a bell jar like look to regular peaks and troughs and I reckon another mini trough possible imminently
If so, might take a position if they drive it below £3 again.

“ Trading around a position, are we? ;) ”

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Hi Luna,

Yep : )
But as I’m overweight in my main holding account, it’s no bad thing if I’m unable to get back in at my old tranche price during November and just leave things with the small gain banked, until everything is more clear, closer to my next target zone of - Jan & Feb.
(After first testing for viability closer to those dates).

However, to that end, have set a buy-limit order running - on auto since last night
– should I get lucky on prices: )

- My phone and tablet have the old portfolio totals showing that tranche as unsold. Updated my portfolio software on the desktop to the cloud just now, and then downloaded it to the phone & tablet - and (small pleasures) nice to see my increased overall total reflected the same as the desktop, alleviating the sharpness of today’s XD drop. Nice to see on such a heavy XD day: )

Nice, because any small increase is an occasion for quiet cheer in this ‘red’ year.

============================

“ . . . Velo has only ever been overly transparent with his views, trades and strategies? He's also been very clear about his bumper pot of platinum coins he doesn't touch here until it brings home the true value we all know is present . . . “

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Many thanks Stoodio,

- For the supportive post, and for releasing me from self-doubt as halfway to convincing myself I might have been less clear than I thought I was; an occupational hazard when one has a reputation for sometimes overly long-length posts : )

============================

“ stu \velo My comments were totally misguided and a full retraction has been uncomfortably swallowed this morning. . . “

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Hi Artrader,

Perhaps I should allow for the speed-readers on here who pick up the thrust of the main points but maybe due to the length of some of my posts, sometimes miss the small side references to my maintaining my main investment untouched, during any opportunistic trading tactics I might engage in? : )

Hi EggScotch,

“ . . . but I chickened out last minute.”

- That’s why I didn’t post my intention beforehand.

If your holding is from a seriously lower SP timeframe, then it would be a foolhardy thing to attempt if you were certain you wanted to rebuy back in. My larger main holding is safe in an ISA. This was separate money.

This much smaller tranche is in an entirely different account and in no way compromises the main holding.

And if the SP doesn’t retrace much, it’s not imperative that I buy back in soon. It was a small ‘trade’.

------------

Thanks Bazza. Good point you mention there.
---------------

Arttrader
- Have you got me mixed up with someone else (maybe Stoodio?)

I am not now, nor have I ever been a long-term Buy and Hold investor. I’m a trend follower. When the trend changes so do I, and I say so.

Last summer I was caught fast asleep at the wheel and completely messed up selling to avoid the big crash in SLP. Had plenty of notification but ignored it, however, like you, and most everyone else I suffered through that crash, needlessly.

Don’t know where you get: “. . .we all did as you said in the past and held firm for the long term . . . “
- Eh???

I’m bullish on SLP, otherwise I would have sold up everything 100% and cleared off by now.

---
“ Please let us all know when you are back in like the prodigal son “

- Again – Eh??? Re-read my post and you’ll find mention of me retaining my larger position in SLP. So I’m already “in”.

Prices go up and down relentlessly.
Shorter term, having some separate funds to try and catch those waves is totally separate from buying and selling one’s main investment.

Hope this helps clarify your confusion, Artrader.