Member Info for Velo

A sliver of distress fleets across my mind, that my post has been linked to your selling decision ChequeMate.

Time only at the moment to post that this mornings drop is a market wide response to the IMF taking the unprecedented step of criticising the Govts fiscal policy. Big guns are wheeling out of UK stocks in general. Added misery for the SP as if it didn't have enough on its hands.

PS.
V late last night DSF (discounted cash flow) margin of safety methodology, was suggesting 146p as "fair value". If I buy it will be in tranches no higher than that, once the trend finds the floor and a bullish outlook returns to the SP trend.

Well, what a terrible close – 147!

Was just examining how all new investors since late March of this year are now all underwater tonight, than a post pops up, dating their buy in April and stating such underwater condition.

On the one hand, a case could be made for: It’s only a bit of mean reversion as the predominant trend in the SP had since pre-mid-September risen noticeably well clear, far above the 200-day predominant trend and mean reversions to the average are as regular as rain.

But is it? Just a case of mean reversion?

The suddenly accelerated pullback, now looking like a full-on, in-yer-face retrace, gathered momentum in lockstep with the crashing pound after the Govt’s mini-budget caused that effect upon an already descending pound.

However, during the day, the SP was sitting pretty above the 200-day border, but by close it had breached it and sank beneath its waves. Could be temporary. Often is in mean reversions. But the massive, sudden pull-back in the price appears to show genuine, sustained sellers as witnessed by the increased volume.

Price has officially entered oversold condition, so that offers scope for a potential recovery once the last seller leaves the building, but I refrain from a decision and instead do as I always do and – follow the trend.
It’s down, and that’s it.

I will marvel at anyone posting well because of this, that and the other, the SP will break out from here any day now - I wait and just watch the trends.

For instance, maybe there’s a floor around 145-ish as there is a support there.

Or maybe you fancy waiting to load up at around 140?
As there’s another support there too.

Or maybe the price will bounce almost immediately tomorrow back above the predominant trend just a few single pence above this awful 147.

(Awful because it’s without doubt, below the major predominant trend. And nothing good ever comes of any stock that stays below the predominant trend unless it shifts its backside and starts living up on deck – above the 200-day trend. It’s literally a fact of investing survival.

Something has spooked this once marvellous bull trend in UKW. Sellers are now in panic mode as they’ve driven the price into oversold condition. That’s panic. Plenty of posts offering why they’ve panic-sold (from banking profits ie., mean reversion capitulation) or something else less benign? I don’t know.

I don’t know what the major influence is that’s hit the SP so hard. I just follow the trend and barely ask why.

I probably will buy; after I’ve received more data from my data subscription provider (Stockopedia - as they’re very scant on this stock).

- But so far, initially, believe it or not - I like it.

Well, there's a blast from years past. Hi there Chequemate!

Was going to say hope the market has been kind to you in the meantime
- but the market doesn't do kindness. So I hope you've survived well.

Sector momentum is what propels my, passing ship in the night, visit here as Energy has been the prime performing sector since the poison-dwarf, Putin decided to feck-over everybody's future.

Only fell on this stock today. Not buying whilst it's in a downtrend, but look what the price has done to the dividend yield; good before but now it's looking well into over 5%+ (fwd) territory, but most of all this mission statement from the company ignites my interest:

" The Company's investment objective is to provide investors with an annual dividend that increases in line with retail price index (RPI) inflation. . . "

So whilst investors suffer the slings and arrows of bear markets & war et al, good dividend stocks can be very much in vogue to buffer stocks hit in the market-wide bearish retrace in all the international indices.

If time, am putting brief general thoughts down in a post after this on aka - price.

... quite dramatic and not since the March crash of 2020 has there been such a severe reaction by the SP. Any more definite info on the main driver of this retrace in the SP?

Got this on a watch list now.

Finding it difficult to get a clear reading of the balance sheet. Not seeing any quality or value ratings. Revenue has been zig zaggy over the years as has been net profit.
Overall, this year is due to deliver fantastic trading results but then reverts back to zig zagging with really low trading figures for next year.

Confusing.

I'm therefore monitoring the SP price action trends. Interestingly as severe as the retrace has been it still hasn't fallen below the predominant trend which is only a penny away down in the 140's. Also the intermermediate trend hasn't been crossed to the downside either such had been the speed of descent. It's still bullish. All bearishness is held in the short term trends only.

But should that nearby predominant trend get breached then it would start looking like most other stocks on the indices and an expectation of worse to come would be likely. At the moment it's been too fast to get a handle on it. Need to know a hard precise readon/s for the retrace before opening mind to this being only temporary.

Knife edge!

Stoodio @
"... Would be keen to hear what Velo has to say when he's back from lawnmower duties at Grimsby Town FC."
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Ha!
Hi Stoodio,
Yes I am still tied up in the North - but not that far north :)
Grimsby? That's Eeh-bah-gum territory, isn't?

Instead, I'm holed-up on the Staffordshire /Cheshire border.

Time to occasionally skip read here, but at the moment, time to post is v limited.

I agree with your observation that:
' the global markets are doing weird things for this month of September to date'

It has always been thus for several years now. September is nearly always the single worst performing month for the leading American S&P500 index.

However September is not the worst month for SLP (that's usually reserved for June) but it is perhaps a background of that US generally underperforming month, that maybe influences the several years of SLP's Septembers (and others) being an 'iffy' month.
(ie., Good results yet strangely the SP often gets kicked-back from the intra-month heights by that month's end).

My expectation for September is for it to close the month up, but perhaps nearer to its month open, than the admirable heights it always achieves on the days surrounding the publication of its September annual trading results.

However this rally has been enjoyable with all the shorter term trends now returned to bullish behaviour, and even better the slightly more indicative Intermediate trend has recently turned bullish too! Yay!

Even the mighty 200 day average has currently been bested by the SP (by sitting above 90p).

Longer term holders in SLP are well aware of the annual tendancy for SLP to pull back from the heights of intra-September by the close of that month as it almost never closes as the highest point of the month (buy on the rumour and sell on the news?)
But that doesn't mean it has to reoccur this year, as the summer of 2021 (after May) broke the model, didn't it?

I did want to post that my first target; The first big test - was 90p.
£1 held no interest for me other than it was a big fat round number.

The SP sliced through it (90) like a hot knife through butter. It's misleading to think that infers super powers upon the rally until the SP proves it can maintain a position above 90p from now on until the year end. Don't care if the SP bounces around within the 90's but fall below 90 - it must not!!!
Because that currently is where the near-year long 200 day average currently lies.

I like to say: All is possible above the 200 but there is no meaningful life/future for any stock that appears to live permanently below the 200.

My main bullish expectations lie in the coming Jan & Feb period, so any bullish sustained moves beforehand, that maintain life above the 200 average, are a cause of celebration for me.
---

(Heh! Hope this is long enough a post even though I'm pushed for time, to antagonise Tiger.
If not - there's reams more of A4 pages still in

No confusion from my sources. It's a full 8p divi payment, and yes, currently that represents an incredible near10% divi payment from just that single payment alone.

XD date is 27th October which slots in nicely with my expectation of the potential for the SP to cease retracing if not appreciate from then on, but n particular will stick my neck out and place my opinion of this coming Jan and Feb to be the lucrative period for the SP to appreciate most notably.

... up to a year/ year&half (to maybe a bit longer).
In the meantime enjoy any rallies that tickle your fancy as no one knows anything for sure of course.

This is the only post I expect to make between then and now :)

(Sold my GSK shares before the hivving-off of HLN for a reasonable profit).

Curious to see how the SP performs tomorrow Friday and Monday next week.

When searching on totally unrelated matters on the phone, up popped a title similar to that which occurred back on a Sunday night, the day before the SP rose massively on Monday of the 25th April, and here it is again the same date but 4 months later to that date – tonight Thurs Aug 25th only its headline is:

“Find out why this UK stock may be on the verge of exploding”

Clicked it several times tonight and it still comes up readily, so it’s fresh out tonight. Exact same story but they’ve tweaked the opening slightly to include

- “Shares of this company are trading at a summer low which is why it’s the best time to come in before September rolls around and the bull rally really starts”

Pound to a penny that was them loading up today in readiness.

All talk of “. . they can now sell carbon credits which can only mean one thing for their stock in my opinion: A stratospheric rise”.

No mention of the likelihood of a 7-year delay before anything meaningful from carbon credits can show up directly into WBI’s accounts, despite their closing line of – ‘buy shares right now up to 5 pence’.

Not surprised about the lacklustre price action the closer price gets to its first big breakout attempt, currently just a few pence away at 92 is the predominant tend itself - the big 200 day trend.

It's giving me the willies by weakening just before reaching it. If it does pullback for a day or too, then it still has 2 initial bull trends on side, but a little unnerved by today's performance. Not an issue at the moment, but would have preferred more strength on display approaching the underside of the game-changer, mighty 200 day trend.

The only time since last summer that a true breakout was achieved was March earlier this year - but turned out to be short lived as the 200 reeled it back in.

And here price is at the doorstep for another attempt but is it weakening already? I'd like it to deliver the goods but might yet be too early to enthuse prematurely.

After the XD period is over on Sept 1st, I expect the SP will forage its way towards the 100-teens, the position it was heading for, up to the day before XD day. But wouldn't be at all surprised if it showed strength before that date.

Load is the twinkle in analysts eye and flavour of the month, no doubt about it.

But such is the enthusiasm for this stock it has IMO been driven into Overbought territory, so I expect the market to trim the excess off the SP over the coming days. Shouldn't be too much of a pullback though, just a reaction to the rush by investors to get in on a good 'un.

"You mention August being a good month, traditionally it very much is so it's going to be interesting to see where this goes over the coming couple weeks."
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The old characteristics are resetting due to events outside of the company's control.
July failed to perform again this year.
August is off to an indifferent start so much so, that I've posted of lowering my target to £1 by August month end - if that!

July and August performed like an unbeatable tag team for the 5 years up to early summer 2021 and since that date are still under the cosh.

Looking at all data since SLP's launch on the market in 2011, both July and August fade away a lot.

However, including the bad years from the last Rh market crash it's Jan & Feb that stand head and shoulders bullishly above July/August.

It's only the last 5 years ending early summer 2021 that made July/Aug shine so brightly.
Also, of all the months June has never failed - to perform badly - since launch.

If Aug performs well this month then the characteristics are still twitching. But July is hinting not to get too dependable on the past glories of August.

But that also means past under-performing months like results month Sept, can no longer be guaranteed to be:
"Buy on the Rumour & Sell on the news" months either.

After the SP crash, the remaining "certainties" IMO are Jan/Feb to be admirably bullish.
June to stink like bearish hell without fail.

All previous repeat performing certainties, are no longer so certain.

The certainties are still weaker than the regkuabiluty they offered prior to the SP crash from May 2021.

I have big hopes for next Jan & Feb but such us the state of flux I'm more rekuant on the trends in SLP.
I don't have the same confidence in July/August due to that state of flux.

As said what has perforned to expectations regardless of bull or bear market has Bern Jan/Feb since the launch of SLP and June always to be a stinker!

Trends are increasing their bullishness, so maybe an easing of squeezing the SP is on the cards?

“. . . what are the charts talking about here nowadays? “

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What a positive outlook, of an encouraging and energising post Stoodio!

-
Just back late last night from over a week & half away up north so something (from my POV only) triggered in that time which I think I last posted of some time back of perhaps being a possibility in maybe a couple of weeks.
Well it’s now been a couple of weeks :)

When the “last 7 or 8 days” postings of consecutive gains suggested a potentially change in trend I treaded lightly.
Eventually the initial Short-Term trend crossed to the bullish upside. Still, I refused to be seduced and posted of waiting for the next more powerful and therefore more indicative Intermediate Trend to turn bullish (it was back then still bearish, as is the predominant 200-day trend).

It (the Intermediate-Trend) crossed to the upside by confirming so, approximately a week ago!

I have come to take serious notice of the Intermediate Trend, as a worth the risk of a punt trend, and adds weight to the initial Short-term trend as perhaps having some legs.

Longer term trends will take a lot longer to confirm what’s underway (should it continue) and are still leaning lazily against the bearish fence. So not a clean sheet just yet.

The predominant trend itself (bearish) the 200 day - is but a mere fingertip stretch away in the lower 90’s to being breached! (Party time when it does) And of late has been levelling off; so that’s nice.

So, I’m enthused by the lower level trends turning positive – bullish!

It can be said the initial 7 or 8-day bull run has now strengthened into something stronger, more bullish.

I’m also enthused by the US main markets behaving similarly. Despite Geo-political events which twist and turn threatening to escalate with each passing week, I’m quite bullish on SLP for this later summer/ autumn whilst fully expecting corrective pullbacks which may derail some investors traumatised by this worldwide pullback in all markets this year.

So, the trends are looking positive Stoodio – not all of them; but enough to make interested observers take note. The lower trends have all turned to the upside; is it a sign the longer-term bearish trends may eventually fall to the bull too? T

" . . . along with various other income producing interests :) "

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Way to go Stoodio!

(I had a useful 'other income' sideline up until Covid, but less so these days).

Full of admiration for anyone who's managed to engineer multiple income streams.

... 169p

They say PGM's will recover in 2023 due to pent-up demand from the vehicle industry.

It's a free to view, paid-for by client broker, but that's their opinion this morning.

https://*********************/companies/uk/precious-metals/sylvania-platinum-ltd-/research/edison/sylvania-platinum-excellent-q4-production-but-lower-pgm-basket/3_31171xxx-1fec-0390-c7fa-8030600b176d

Due to the Q4 update they've reduced their EPS forecast by 12.5% for the Sept 8th reveal. That's pretty much why the SP was flat on the Q4 results - results were la little less than THEIR forecasts.

Analysts forecasts - market takes them seriously and reacts accordingly, whilst in a trading year but when reviewing historic multiple years, no one is interested in the misses of analysts forecasts only the actual results to get an overall picture.

PHTM had been "delisted"

From today it's new ticker name is MEGP.

I've put the first post there on the new forum to help identify it, for anyone confused this morning - as I was!

MEGP is the new ticker name change from the company formerly known as PHTM from today.

Nice progress off the floor today. An attempt back into the 160's next week?

- I'm thinking so... :)

Well the SP close of July was below my expectations.
So am retracting the 107-ish estimate for August SP close and now only looking for circa a £1.

As others have pointed out, the trading achievements are exemplary, If you take out last year's record breaking performance then this year's full year (via adding the quarterly results) means that net profit has smashed all previous years - bar last year's record breaking performance!

The SP on the other hand, got itself mired in the market's analysts forecast expectations and look on paper as if they've come in below target. Yet as time moves on and market forecasts are forgotten, this year's results will still be stand-out by beating all previous years bar last year.

I'd like August to show it's past performance capabilities, and prove my £1 SP expectation way too low for the month ending August.

Still a way to go until chip issues fully resolved. Net profit shows the current Rh prices for the past 12 months are healthy enough for contributing to good profits.

In the absence of any fundamental bearish news, I too could only come up with it's a case of 'buy on the rumour and sell on the news' as I too was contemplating selling all this week (and in later days/weeks rebuying :) only because the SP was Overbought condition and the near vertical climb was at odds with worldwide stock markets and geo political events casting gloom over the world's major markets since February this year. It's been impossible not to be in profit whatever date an investor bought unless it was in the past week or so. I bought late October with the intention of a buy in November and sell in May Strategy, but it's a keeper :)

In one day the SP has descended out of Overbought condition so now a case of seeing if the rate of descent slows or not as my thinking is it may well in the coming weeks do the opposite and panic may drive the SP into a case of Oversold sellers, and that would be the cue to top-up.

But first let's see if this pullback peters out quickly or not.