Member Info for Velo

Brad, Yes, I noticed the Fraud act post was ticked up too.

Jay - Well done!
I posted previously that "I think" the last several days resembles a flat base, and if so they usually convert to a strong bullish rally. So expect a continuance if it is that, and not a one-day reaction.

However, others think the SP could retrace somewhat from here, so just my opinion only, that recent performance resembles a 'flat base'. If it does rally from here then I'm getting my referencing from William O'Neil's CANSLIM methodology and/or Stan Weinstein's stage 2 rally. Nothing is written in stone - all is opinion.
(At the moment WBI qualifies for neither, apart from my opinion it's looking like it does a little bit :)

4 posts still highlighted under the chat window above, yet only 1 post visible for today.

Early this morning I did read a post from someone as their very 1st post (and registered just days ago) posting details of the fraud act, point by point, specifically relating to the 1,000% article as a fraud. And now it's gone.

Can't recall so many banned posters on one forum., whether due to operating multiple ID's or just one banned poster trying to regain membership via a new ID.

More used to seeing (temporary) bans for bad language etc.,

"they claim fair value as 1/10th of a penny - @ 0.014p"
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Eh?

- Or more correctly as they show it as: £0.0014

.

So, **that** report talks of valuing the SP to at least a £1.

Too rich?

Then try Simply Wall Street and their Discounted Cashflow method (I don’t like it because you have to guess future interest rates in the process) and they claim fair value as 1/10th of a penny - @ 0.014p

Too low?

How about the House Broker (Canaccord) whose fair valuation back in January was published as 6p
- and reiterated this April again at 6p.

Too boring?

Okay, let’s find a more middling viewpoint.

And it’s over to WalletInvestor who offer:

14p as the 1 year fair value forecast.
- and 31p in 5 years!

So out there, are:

0.1p

6p

14p

31p

£1

- Such fun!
.

L/Leeds @
“ . . . I'm joining Camp 3 too. “
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Ha! : )
And why not? Then if it all goes south Camp 3’ers can post:
- Well I did have my doubts.
Or if it hits the stratosphere of excellence it would be:
- Ah well, I always thought it was a possibility.
LOL! : )

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B/Smith @
“They reviewed the guys position and he recommended that the guy sell the lot because the FTSE was going to crash from an all-time high! The bloke was unhappy. . . Within a short time his profits would have evaporated!“
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Kudos to your son Brad - Ace!
That’s gotta be the 2008/2009 worst-in-living-memory-crash era, I bet?
And if not, maybe one of the correction years that followed later.
- However, grandchildren clues etc., my bet is it was the 2008/2009 period, that your son advised him to get out before the market crash got underway properly.
No wonder the guy followed your son to the new pastures – under the guise of: Why discard a winning hand?

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B/Smith @
“ Ronald McDonald is a clown character used as the primary mascot of the McDonald's fast-food restaurant chain. “
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Yes :)
Just my little jibe at the lack of transparency of the background of the author.
Even on Motley Fool, by clicking on the jouno’s name, you can see a brief potted history of the background history of the analyst concerned.
- He’ll always be Ronald MacDonald to me : )
(Unless he reveals full disclosure).

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“ I'd like to my position clear.
Ronald Brown's article definitely drew my attention to WBI. “
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Yep! Ditto. Me too.
Never heard of WBI beforehand.
Unaware of Carbon credits too – until that article.

So, I followed the advice of Ronald Brown to at least “look into it more closely” with a neutral outlook, as I systematically screen for stocks to predefined metrics and strategies. I no longer fall for story stocks, tips and the like. Nonetheless I was intrigued. So here I am today, still on the shore line of WBI’s coast.

I’ve finally noted Ronald-MacDonald Brown's timeline, for future use. I’m writing it down at this late hour before it disappears from memory:

I’ve copy-pasted that article on my phone (in its latest incarnation) for comparison purposes in the future.

I first noticed it, on a Sunday night on April 24th.

Reading back (on here) the very first mention of that article was posted on the same day as most saw it, that same Sunday. There are no recorded sightings of it prior to that Sunday.

That post on Sunday 24th April, must have been late too, because it was the only post of the day, and garnered no responses. The next day (Monday 25th April) the price exploded – it garnered comments then!

I was busy that next day Monday, but had 3 or 4 red flags which today, I still haven’t resolved. But those are my DYOR issues, not anyone else’s, or me to annoy and harangue publicly.

The previous Friday and Thursday were both red, bearish, down trending days. So the SP explosion on the first day after the article came out (Monday, April 25th) was 100% due to that article.
At the close, I was expecting it to be the largest single % gain on the UK stock market that day - and it was! As I receive the LSE daily winners and losers table - and there right at the top of the largest increase of all stocks on the London Stock Exchange was WBI in the top No:1 spot with a fraction under a 40% gain achieved in a single day!
(4.3p open, closing at 6p right on the nose).

I mused before the Monday open, that if there were sufficient positives, I might take a position, if it remained in the 4p-ish area later.

But I found issues.

Even so – I just never expected the 4p area to be destroyed so decisively that day. Not fussed by that at all, as WBI doesn’t pass all my processes. And I’m resisting buying stories and tip stocks - or trying to :)

Could even see myself buying a lot higher in the future.

Waiting until belts and braces are in place means accepting a higher entry, but pros buy high and sell higher. It’s us private investors that take the more risks. We are relentlessly encouraged to buy low and sell high, thus taking risks the pros avoid.
When a price is low it’s often overlooked that a stock is in a downtrend. Don’t know any pro’s that deliberately seek out down trends and thus buy against the market direction.

Fortunately, IMO the SP is still in a bullish uptrend.

It would appear that two camps have emerged since ‘that’ 1,000 or 2,000% report was launched. Either you’re for it or against it. You either support its claims or believe the claims to be erroneous.

I'm lukewarm about it. How about a third camp? The one I’m in.
I can see both sides of the argument have merit regarding that report, without leaning heavily to either side.

About an hour or so ago, I Googled for info on “Fintech” companies. Guess what unrelated site headed up the search? (Beginning to think they’re targeting me personally).
It was that site! It’s back up and it was now dated 2nd June, today's date!

Gone is the 2,000% claim now replaced with 1,000% gain
(so approx. 60p-ish SP, based on buy it for 6p etc., yet it still quoted the SP being worth over £1 (No, a £1+ SP = the old 2,000% claim).

Whatever, it stated that in 7 years experts predict the worldwide market will be worth $1,000billion - only worth $200billion currently.
(So, $1,000billion - isn’t that $1 trillion then?)

Then it led that straight back into Woodbois.

Speed-readers would be recalling $1,000 billion in association with WBI.
(Although isn’t likely Tesla et al, all EV manufacturers will get the lion’s share?)

It costs money to avoid Google banning your website for infringing genuine searches with meta tags etc., so someone is paying big Google ad type money to ensure this report appears only for short periods of time before Google bots track it down. What company wouldn’t sign up to have their ad front up every unrelated search on the internet if it was cheap to do so?

(Fintech? / "The Financial News" site/
Maybe just finance/stock-related searches only then??)

So, someone is shelling out money now, on that report. At the moment I’m not leaning to pump and dump - as just a mere doubling of the SP is not the experience I’ve seen, ad hoc, of pump and dump operators. They want a lot more than double before the dump.
Therefore, I’m leaning towards someone or some group is ALREADY invested in WBI and are front-running their investment by talking it up.

Using fake evidence won’t do it. So the facts have to be based in reality otherwise savvy investors would call out the inaccuracies.

So yes, I believe it’s a biased report. But biased by being economical with the downside risks whilst trumpeting the bull points.

Put me in camp three until further notice.

(Tsk! I’m not succeeding in my ambition to post less).

.

Velo @
“The reason I await with bated breath is that the next 2 years' guidance suggests a stellar performance based on the current business set-up.“
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Now realise I mixed up this stock’s metrics with the metrics I was holding in my memory, with that of another stock.

I may have inadvertently misled expectations in a post below on Wednesday with that single-sentence-para above. I’d like to correct it to a 50/50 appropriation, in that I think revenue for the next 2 years guidance, yes IMO, is looking “stellar” but less-so the bottom line.

However, that Net Profit is due to set an all-time record for another reason other than a stellar performance.
And that is, things are looking likely to result in 3 straight years of consecutive net profit gains! And that will be a first for WBI, if achieved.

Past Net Profits have been dismal in that its years and years of losses interspersed every few years with the odd stray actual profitable year, only to default back to a run of losses thereafter.
However, as low as the net profit is forecast for the current trading year, and a better forecast net profit performance for next year in 2023, it means that for the first time ever, a corner may have been turned in that it will be a run of 3 years non-stop profit-producing years. But not “stellar” net profit.

In fact, this current year is on a knife-edge between either producing a Net Profit or a Net Loss; hence my interest in the upcoming H1, (to be published in August?)

A quick recce to make the above more digestible:

Revenue:
2021 - $17.5m
2022 (Forecast) $27.1m (almost 55% increase above 2021)!!
2023 (Forecast) $40.6m (almost 50% increase over 2022)!!!

So, think I’m on safe ground there (if WBI delivers to market guidance) in calling the next 2 years of Revenue “stellar” - if market guidance achieved.

Now the bottom line (Not stellar but . . . interesting):

NET PROFIT:
2021 – $90m (with non-trading assets assigned to the bottom line :(
but actually circa $2m Net Profit in trading-only account.
2022 - $0.2m
2023 - $4.06m

This trading year will be a bit iffy in staying above a trading loss at circa $200,000 net profit area, but taking the NET profits of 2021, 2022 and 2023 together, it produces for the first time ever, a straight consequtive, 3 year run of actual net profits!

(Now if you want to call that a record-breaking run of Net Profit performance because it'll be a first in WBI’s entire history - then it would let me off the hook with using the word ‘stellar’, and I’d have had no need to post all this : )

.

Typo!
EBITA = EBITDA

" I must see if I the forthcoming yearly figures include carbon credits to get to £27m was it , or $27M. My accountancy skills are non existent but it might be sensible to take a look."
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I too await with baited breath for the H1 results to be published in early August. In the meantime the Q2 update should be published in early July - then a matter of adding to Q1 to arrive at H2 - but I try not to do that as there are always bits that appear after Q2 that get added or subtracted by the formal H1 results.

The reason I await with baited breath is that the next 2 years guidance suggest stellar performance based on the current business set-up.

The veracity of those figures can be tested with the H1 results in August by means of the TTM methodology (12 month Trailing averaging) over the remainder of the year and see if the TTM gives a higher or lower likelyhood of achieving the really good forecasts the brokers guidance suggests for the next 2 years.

PS. I have big issues with that $88m bonus added to the original net profit of some $2m. Never received a reply to my email and now into over a month since I emailed them. Phoning them was sent straight to recorded massage so okay they're busy. But they have my email and are ignoring it. Again they're busy. And no one, not analyst or WBI mgmnt can alay my fears of shoving an EBITA item straight down to the bottom line.
(I believe that $88m "bargain" if explained fully could have upset the Beneish M-Score into giving a bad readout against WBI management. But no one in the press attempts to dig in except cast aspersions. Have emailed for an explanation but they haven't responded yet. The months roll by.

" Velo I hope you have set your buy back higher than the 3p's ..... I will be disappointed if we drop that low."
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Don't think that's likely or imminent at all.
(3p is 'anchoring' for no other reason that's what it once was (it was also in the 2p's a little further back). There's no trends in play suggesting a revisit to those in the short term - IMO.

Believe it or not the predominant trend in WBI remains bullish. Couldn't believe it, had to double check.
The SP is forming a flat base (a form of consolidation). That usually bodes well.

... "Usually" Ha! Famous last word that could return to haunt me :) ?

Although the overall trends implied not to build hopes during May, I am a sucker for so-called predictative strategies as a fun-thing sideline, whilst trends are going against my stocks in an attempt to identify any upcoming break in a particular established trend.

I have to say the month of May has disappointed in ignoring the predictative strategies by adhering to the predominant down trend in SLP.

And as the predictive strategies are citing this month (June) as likely to be quite a disappointing month driving the price even further south, I'm hoping they stay true to form and are out of synch as they were in May.

The predominant trend has descended to right above the current SP area, so hope springs eternal. Earlier this year a CEO of a chip manufacturer spoke of expecting a turnaround in chip availability to become visible from the second half of this year. Some time later an equally qualified "expert" said not expect any improvements in the chip situation for at least another 2 or 3 years from now, (not from last year, but 2 or 3 years from this year!)

However SP-wise I'm pinning my bullish-response SP-flag to the month of August; but am bearing in mind that's a ropey expectation too.

In the meantime it's a matter of keeping an eye on the relationship of price to the predominant trend.

“ Is Velo still around ir has he taken your approach ? “
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Hi BradSmith,

Trying to reduce my contributions to these forums, as can be addictive these ‘blogs’ as a mate of mine refers to them.

I am around insomuch as WBI is on a watchlist, and I will skim-read the forum to see if anything new sends me off down a new track. I’ve nothing against posting the odd comment; I’m just trying not to : )
I’d like to see how this all develops. Might/might not become a holder, depending on a number of developments/issues.

Had to turn this desktop computer on to check this LSE site, as on my phone many posts now appear to be missing. But it’s the same here.

A new poster turned up today called ‘BaldSmith’. It was his 1st ever post today, and clicking on his history – it appeared he’d just joined this site, this week.
Nonetheless, he weighed in on the ongoing argumentative debate, citing his new ID to get around posting as his prior ID’s.

Bit of a naïve mistake to boast of operating under multiple ID personalities and expect LSE to remain unmoved. They’re lethal on live multiple ID’s and ban for life as it attacks the integrity of their business. So, I came back to re-read that post.

And not only has that post been deleted but so has all of BC100’s and Greyfriars too. They must have the same IP address that is visible to LSE.

Never witnessed a multiple ID poster openly boast of operating as such. So, wanted to see if he mentioned his fake ID’s by name, as don’t recall him mentioning them individually. Just that he was forced to start afresh as ”BaldSmith”.

Still keep thinking I’m confusing with another forum page, but no, all BC100’s posts and all Greyfriar’s posts have been wiped 100% from this site as if they never existed! Or is it some gremlin in my computer?

Any other Posters comments completely missing, or is it just those two?

The recent drop in share price is worrying. Wonder if there is some piece of news I am missing . . . “
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Nkhatt’s sentiment surely speaks for others too. As I’m surprised there are not more similar posts.

The SP is now way, way, way below its launch price – and yet I still haven’t bought my first tranche of shares!

I have data that reveals IPO’s, on average, don’t perform well (SP-wise) and that it’s only a minority that go on, to outperform.

So, I waited for 3 to 6 months from the Feb 2021 launch to give things time to settle.

(Brief SP history):

From launch, the price rose until August 2021. Whereupon it commenced a pullback from Sept until late autumn of that year.
I was ready and looked for pullbacks that might get the price back to the 180’s area.

Seduced by seeing 170’s, the downtrend petered out in the 180’s.
Which engaged my greed so I delayed to see if any other pullbacks evolved in which I would take up any 170’s on offer.

But the SP then set off on a bullish rally from December 2021, leaving me at the alter cursing my lack of greed control.

2021 closed the year with the SP at an ATHigh of circa in the 240’s area - And that was as good as it got!

In essence from launch in the 140’s back in early 2021, SUP went on to close the same year £1 higher – nice.

From the commencement of 2022, the SP has done nothing but retrace all the way back to the launch price.
And kept on - into no-man’s land – well below the launch price.

The accounts show nice annual revenue increases and corresponding nice net profit increases. So, what indeed has gone wrong? Nothing, as far as I can see.. And can only assume it’s geopolitical events, with value stocks being 'in'
- and quality growth stocks being shown the door.

The accounts show nothing untoward. The annual results are due in July this year. They should confirm both increasing revenue and net profit as per the recent update from the company.

(Brokers' notes, provided on SUP’s website are very buoyant for this and future years. Covid lockdowns didn’t appear to even impact recent years' results).

SUP has a high “quality” rating (but pedestrian ratings against most of its other metrics). As quality growth stocks (along with tech stocks) are out of fashion due to geopolitical events, SUP appears to be caught in the crossfire.

The results this July, should back up prior guidance and with the current SP area, the forthcoming dividend will be almost a 6% yield!

So, July, all being well, should act as a catalyst if this downtrend is still in force.

My greed has now turned to fear, so I need to see a change in the SP trend (and pay a higher price) to finally make my move.

Currently, not a single retail investor is in profit with the SP.

The P/E ratio is now in single figures. So, shouldn’t be long before it also gets a “value” rating if trading guidance comes in as expected on song, in July.
.

. . . the SP is refusing to capitulate with markets in turmoil, by holding the bottom line in the SP. The high 80's ( technically low points) of the SP are proving reliable.
(Just the highs to sort out then :)

Can't tell you how happy that makes me :)

Might be speaking a little too early as US (futures) markets are still bearish/dropping further this/their morning and we'll see when they open after 2:30pm our time, if the infection once again spreads overseas to our front doors.

The SP is trying to lift off from these high 80's and I expect a better performance from here on, to the month-end than has been displayed so far.

It really is pleasing to see the 87/88 area holding through thick and thin, particularly during bear market conditions, I now expect a bounce-off to get underway, even if it's only a small one.

Once we're in to next week, then 88p is the new (raised) bottom drawer, and any significant revisits below 88 will have me metaphorically ripping up SLP data in angst.

- Only the month of June holds any new terror for me. Once over June, this ship should set sail out of the harbour.

I last posted of 120 being “needed” as the next significant high (likely there may be a couple more lesser ‘insignificant’ highs before that event) just to keep the general shape of the higher-highs and higher-lows in play.

Since the SP found its floor in August of last year, not a lot of bullish action has been seen, so it’s starting to become rather academic. I mean how long is patient? 3 years? 10 years? 35 years?

The lows are holding up their end of the bargain within the 80’s this week by settling right on the nose, ie., gradually closing smidgens higher up the 80’s scale as each month progresses – but the highs are lagging. Virtually only 2 significant highs since August with each taking more months to appear, suggesting the best chance of a slow recovery is now likely to be August as the one and only slim chance this year for the SP to hit 120.

My bias is that May will have a job to close higher than the 90’s at best.
Yet I need to see over 100 instead; as I’m expecting a bad pullback in June.

Meaning: If May closes in the 90’s then forget 120 entirely this year!

If May does not close in triple figures then a revisit back to 80’s or worse is more likely in June. So initially a decent close to May is called for.

Trends are not offering support, nor is my bias which is suggesting higher 90’s at best, maybe mid 90’s by end of May.

Both July and August I’m biased in guessing will perform nicely, with August being the only chance this year of seeing 120.

Jan/Feb 2023 is the more likely for 120 if it doesn’t show up in August.
But waiting that long would entail the higher lows/higher highs disintegration.

The day after tomorrow marks the anniversary of the 52-week ATHigh for the past 12 months when the SP achieved 8.45p
(Although a few months prior to that, it was near heading for almost double that).

That 8p price is familiar to me from when I was last in CPX some half a dozen years ago (nil holdings at present). So, a poor circular SP performance over the years, but worse - it’s not even that much, currently!

And I’m not expecting anything positive from the SP tomorrow. On the contrary, won’t be surprised if the SP closes a smidgen lower. Dangerous as the 12-month ATLow was only in March @ 4.05p, and at this rate of attrition appears hell-bent on revisiting it.

As this board is quiet at the moment (I suppose with all waiting for court news developments) I might as well knock off a couple of posts in the coming days to see if I can talk myself into buying (initially) a small tranche of stock
- if (IF) the price descends to a give-away level where even a modest outlay reduces risk to as low as is negligible.

In the meantime, I need to dig in, as to the veracity of (Ant/Anthony?) Kongats targets, to test whether he under-promises and over-delivers or the worst option; over-promises and under-delivers. The SP performance at face value, hints at the latter.

Must be amongst one of the longest-serving CEO’s on the LSExc, so well experienced from forming this company in 1997 and launching it on the stock market in (2006?)

So, kudos to him for that. That alone shows a true entrepreneurial spirit of achievement, that management-ranks CEO’s sometimes lack.

I’ll post of initial (SP) concerns in the next few days - time allowing, and finish with the biggest plus – then decide on a course of action, if any.

Thought £1 might have been a general jest.

Been many a year since I took a holding in CPX buying & selling for 4/6p then later on seeing it rise to 12p or so; often wonder what-if, I'd left it like some of the posts below for 6 years or so.

"... It just makes the final outcome of £1 a share that much more of a celebration..."

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Where are you all getting this £1 SP from?
- With the best will in the world using the discounted cashflow methodology, and using current available data then 52p is the highest jam-tomorrow max figure available.

It's still in a committed downtrend so both figures are pie in the sky dreams.

Well it's maximum pessimism time with US markets at their worst and things not so happy here either. Buffet has recently been buying after the last year or two, saying there was nothing in the value category for him to buy in the US. Media continues with doom and gloom curtesy of energy issues and Wars /Lockdown, not to mention ongoing chip shortages.

Wasn't expecting to see 80's so soon again, so the whole rising, higher highs and higher lows perception was looking worn.

So with a heavy sense of foreboding just done an update after seeing today's 80's yet again.

And surprised to see the higher lows concept still holds water.

The current touch point is in the 87.5p area so the SP intraday at 88.5p was still 1p above that cut-off point. Higher highs and higher lows is still running true.
Although you'd be forgiven for pursing your lips in exasperation at the SP's performance.

It's now a full year with the month of the last ATHigh from where the SP commenced retracing and didn't stop to give pause for thought until late August of last year.
That August floor too, is getting on for 9 or 10 months old now. Tough going.

I now calculate the next breakout high has to be in the 120 area to keep shape and things on track. But a true breakout stands a better chance from clipping a true higher low and that currently is 87.5p (IMO). (Current SP low point today has been 88.5).

It's amazing that after all these months since last August that a break to the downside still has not presented itself.

Break 87.5 by a further 1 or 2p below it, and I'd be prepared to consider raising the white flag and concede the bears have it. Further than that in the low end 80's would put it beyond argument.

But that isn' t the case currently. The lower half of the 80's appear out of the bears reach.

It's a delicate balance - touch 87.5 but no lower (currently) and I'd happily expect a true breakout attempt next. Visit just 1 or 2p below that 87.5 level and IMO the higher lows shape would be in danger of being blown out of the water.