Member Info for Velo

- Or is it later for this year, and perhaps next week instead?
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Well it's the end of April trading tomorrow, and this morning's intraday visit to 89 didn't faze me at all.

No longer do I regard 86p as the safety net - that was for early in April; it's rising all the time (currently) and the wobbly knees area where things would faze me out - has risen to 87p.

Any visits below that level and a new vista opens up.

So Q3 excepting, for the second half of May that safety net should rise to circa 88p as the cut-off level (In my book; DYOR ;)

So 87/88 is the danger area going into May (IMO) - so the SP needs to get a move on, and show some commitment.

How's that Q3 coming on???

( Concludes Part 2 of 2 ) >

. . . Growth stocks often show little net profit improvement in the early years but the past 12 years have taken the biscuit!

2021? It was $90.5m Net PROFIT!

But hold on, check the Income account and you’ll see only tiny profits of a few single $m’s – as the whole of that net profit is entered up as “Unusual Income” meaning a solitary one-off, never to happen again. It’s standard practice that unusual income or expenses never occur again, and is frowned upon if it’s a regular entry and is a case of concern should it happen regularly.

Well it’s happened, every, single, year in WBI - and that’s a concern.

Looked at the annual accounts summary and the only mention of that $90m dump into net profit, is at the very bottom of the RNS release and says quote:

“The consolidated profit for the year after taxation from continuing operations attributable to shareholders was $90.1 million of which $88.3million was attributable to the gain on bargain purchase.”

- That’s it? ‘bargain purchase of $88.3m’?
It must be detailed elsewhere - If you know, shout out.

But it’s not a good thing (unusual income/or unusual expenses) to appear regularly. so needs to have watertight explanations as the next post (the Beneish M-Score) issues multiple red flags against potential earnings manipulation.

It should be noted that market guidance shows terrific revenue growth expectations of $26.8m for this year and an amazing $40.2m for next year.

However only $196,000 net profit is expected for this year and $4.02m net profit for next year.

Not unexpected low net profits in turnarounds, but just look at that mega $40m revenue forecast for next year : )

Next post later tonight, or tomorrow, will be those red flags.

PS.
(There are some genuine desirable metrics within the balance sheet which as a counter balance I can attempt to highlight if anyone wishes) as the red flags post (next) is specific to certain areas of earnings only

(Part 1 of 2)

Here’s what started me off on the trail of: Why has the SP performed so disastrously that eventually led on to the red flags post (up next tonight).
(No other word for it – the SP’s long-term history has been a disaster and it’s not all down to share dilution due to regular stock placements). It’s been in long term decline for well over a decade now, and started declining way back from 2010 – and hasn’t ceased falling, ever since.

The SP peaked at an ATHigh back in 2010 in the lower 50p’s.
It could be argued that regular stock market placements have held the SP back, by diluting the share pool. But it shouldn’t last this long. And you can’t really blame the revenue over that period. I’ve highlighted the revenue’s below, but only from 2014 as the figures from 2010 have been altered wherever I look. Either that’s because of the report-accounting IRFS thing that complicates matters for all stocks, or because it was listed as another company – that Obtala Resources, was it?
Only heard of this stock on Sunday, so my knowledge of the company is scant.

By 2013 (and up to 2016) the SP had eased up by meandering around the 5p area.

From 2016 it attempted a break-out that failed after taking it from circa 5p up to lower 20's and from 2017 it recommenced the decline that's lasted to this day, with a brief flurry in the first half of 2021 that came to nothing.

That prior high (the minor failed breakout attempt in early 2021) reached approx high 7p’s before collapsing to the current area. It's a minor prior-high to long-term comparisons, so if this current breakout has any legs it will FIRST have to break past that sub 8p prior high, before you can say: it's on!

That’s 12 years of non-stop disappointing SP performance!

What's caused this multi-year decline in the SP?

Revenue has not been the real problem –

2014 = $2.78m
2015 = $0.87m
2016 = $0.63m
2017 = $7.89m
2018 = $13.4m
2019 = $19.5m
2020 = $15.3m
2021 = $17.5m

That’s not too bad. Covid lock-downs explain 2020/2021 and the 2015/2016 period soon dissipated, to show nice increases barring the Covid years. So not through lack of revenue growth.
Well that’s what came in the front door. What’s left at the back door – the net profit?

And that’s where the wheels start to come off. It’s just a litany of year after year of losses –

Net Profit:

2014 = -$13.4m LOSS!
2015 = -$16.8m LOSS!
2016 = -$4.84m LOSS!
2017 = $9.86m :) PROFIT
2018 = -$6.74m LOSS!
2019 = -$4.4m . LOSS!
2020 = -$2.61m LOSS!
2021 = (Come back to this year - see below)

The years before 2014 showed losses abounding also. Only share placements got those losses (now debts) paid, and saved getting unwieldly bank loans but diluted the share pool, hindering the SP.

Growth stocks often show little net profit improvement in the early years but the past 12 years have excessive. So has it been the bottom line?

2021? It was $90.5m PROFIT!

But hold o..

(Continues > > > )

" What's the red flags Velo? How they value their forestry assets? "

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Hi RyeSloan,
Saw your post about 15 minutes after you posted it, during a break - but been busy ever since and couldn't post. Will try to reply to your post tomorrow, Wednesday.

I did say if anyone wanted further details of the red flags (The Beneish M-Score if you want to Google in the meantime) I would furnish those findings, then will probably tail off my posts here. (Although I am intrigued by this stock).

Had a brief deeper dig in tonight, and to my horror, discovered by following the links that 2 of my own portfolio stocks are raised as red flags and both of them score more dangerously than WBI !

Geezalou! WTF! Grrrr. . . .!

Just shows - I should pay closer attention to my own holdings before I spend my time poking my nose in to other areas.

Anyway, the probabilities of things getting worse is rated at 86%. So still a chance that WBI is in the 14% that are "innocent" and merely mimic those stocks that are manipulating earnings, but isn'tt actually doing so. (There is a way to check if WBI is likely to be in the 14% that escape the fate that the red flags raise, so if I haven't checked that 'escape plan' side of things in tomorrow's post please remind me to do so.

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That 2,000% link is back up, it appeared here, before I posted, it was in a banner on this site above the Post A Message area. I think it's a case of 'Front Running', where the author buys the stock in advance of pumping the upside positives from a position of perceived semi-authority. Don't think he was actually lying per se. Just pumping the positives. Ramping if you like.

This was part of the post below but I broke it in two to reduce the length of a single post.
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When I posted below of other red flags, I meant financial accounts red flags, but it was management concerns (follows) that propelled me to look deeper into the accounts. First alert was:

A new CEO was triumphantly announced last November. As Paul Dolan said in the RNS:

" . . . As previously advised, we have been searching for a CEO in order to both broaden and deepen our management team in this period of rapid growth and as part of the improvements to our governance by splitting the Chair and CEO roles.
We are very pleased to welcome Federico to the team AND WE ARE IMPRESSED BY THE START HE HAS MADE . . . "

- 6 months later (barely more than a week ago) a lengthy RNS concluded towards the bottom of the RNS with perhaps THE most important info with a very terse (almost an afterthought, of):

" Federico Tonetti, former CEO, will shortly be leaving the Company and we would like to thank him for his efforts during his time in the role. "

- WHAT?

After all that searching? That's it?
'Former', he was there barely 6 months so doesn't warrant a 'former'. What's going on?
Why such a short summing up after such praise on his arrival?

The RNS dwelled on the wonderful reorganisation of management and not a word about why they no longer needed the "impressive" (their description} Federico Tonetti anymore.

Perhaps he was too impressive - What the hell did he find/uncover that made him walk?

I've been looking at the balance sheet et al, and found red flags abound in the accounts if you know where to look - at least for me.
(Ask if you want further details as would be good to hear rebuttals as it would reassure my doubts, but will take me some time to write up fully, and this post is too long already).

So I never bought this morning.

The red flags might just be circumstantial, and this fantastic SP performance may well continue, if so it will be my loss.

But I will keep on my watch list to see how this all turns out.

Yes, igrowmoney, I had issues with that on Sunday.
By the way, have you tried clicking on that link today? (Link posted @ 11:42 on Sunday, under the 'Worth A Punt' thread)?

- Doesn't come up any more.
Not on my phone, or a different provider on my desktop either.
Click it, you'll see what I mean - unavailable. (Could innocently be heavily inundated with viewings ie., bandwidth deficit?)

But it's the first of other 'red' flags.

Never heard of Woodbois before yesterday, nor Carbon credits either.

Was Googling info on 2 other companies and that 2,000% link was displayed time and time again, in my search results, even though it had nil reference to my searches. Always right at the top of my searches - was THAT link.
And that was how I came by my first acquaintance with WBI.

Later wherever I went online, that link followed me everywhere. So yes, someone was shelling out, promoting that link.

Intrigued went back to it, and looked further around that site - right in the top left hand corner was a header that opened up to reveal: "Want to be an author for us?"
Thinking it was just another amatuer poster I started Googling the analyst's name who'd written the small article. And found a match with YouTube videos of him selling investing software programs. So more a retailer posing as an analyst.

So your post raised alarms with me as I innocently thought it was like googling anything on your phone - you end up with similar links that follow you round forever.

He said buy before 6p, as it'll go to well over a £1+

And that's what's happened: 6p today - a massive one-day rise on a day when internationally as well as UK markets it's been a bear market today - with everyone's portfolios down.

He also suggested a 2,000% rise! Who talks like that? 2,000% rises?

Warren Buffett has several stocks that have done that, but have done so over several decades. Not once has he forecast that kind of thousands of percent rise, even though he achieved such.

The most you'll read on these forums is enthusiasts talking of 10-baggers more in excitement than from serious calculation :)

- But 2,000% increase forecasts???

" I thought, as we breached the 200dma, we might touch . . . "

---------------------------------

It's always a cause for celebration when any battered stock does a break out above the 200. I've just double-checked to make sure and the recent runabout above the 200 in early March is the only time that living several trading days above the 200 has occurred since the price slipped below the waves of the 200 back in August of last year.

Prior to that, the other peaks, the prior one back in late October/early November was notable for not once - not a single day, did the SP ever open free above the 200 and also close above the 200.

The tiny handful of attempts were either 50/50 jobs of opening below the 200 and closing above it - or opening above the 200 but succumbing to closing the day below it - never a clean break out - messy.

That last break-out in early March was the real deal. I counted 12 clear and clean days where the SP set-up camp atop of the 200.

It took circa 3 weeks for the dark forces to make the SP come out with its hands up, and returned as POW's to live below the 200 again.

However, another 'Great Escape' is underway. It feels a little too early (would like a good Q3 reveal or Q4 to accompany the break-out by adding ammo for the market) but hey - let the SP have a go at doing a Ukrainian on the 200 and see what comes out in the wash :)

I prefer the small but steady advances over the 'tall poppy' big advance all in a day, assaults - as we all know the how the second half of the tall poppy saying ends.

"Mild profit warning" is the phrase used by one analyst today. But also ends with a thumbs up (Paul Scott).

Here's the line in the trading update that triggered today's fall:

" . . . However, this performance will be tempered by commodity price inflation within Sports Nutrition & Wellness and the increases in the overhead base relating to wage and transport costs . . . "

Thing is, there isn't a company in any country, anywhere in the world today, that isn't facing that challenge, hence the 'mild profit warning'.

However, the pullback in the SP is anything but mild and is the full monty reaction to a traditional profit warning RNS.

Should the SP drop into the 140's, which I think could be the case, that would take it right back to the lowest SP ever - when SUP was floated back in early '21.

So will take the first bite if 140's float up on the screen. Why only a first bite and not go all-in?

1) The SP launched into a sustained retrace almost upon enterinmg 2022 by falling from mid-January consistently - and still hasn't ceased retracing. If this big drop today (which mirrors a traditional profit warning reaction by the market) then that means the SP could become moribund for a full year - if it now behaves as other profit warning-hit stocks behave.

2) What if it goes even lower than the 140's?
By buying only a first tranche that leaves room to top-up on any deeper pullbacks from here on.

At this price the dividend jumps from the 3% divi area to a well over 4% dividend and adds a whole new positive to the buying case.

Limited numbers in the update because the full reveal isn't until July, later this year.

However, I also have the revenue figure that market guidance is looking for and that is £130m for the full year and in this update we were advised to expect:
"The Company expects to report revenue in excess of £130 million"

- Quote: "In EXCESS" !

That'll do :)

No mention of net profit but market guidance is/was looking for £ 13.7m

So a fair chance of achieving that seeing as revenue is expected to be "in excess" of previous guidance. A pity the market didn't pick up on THAT line instead.

A good day with the SP fully engaged in bullish mode.
Not expecting anything untoward tomorrow, even if it closes at 95, that's okay as I have that as tomorrow's neutral pivot point. But no lower!

IMO:
Close lower at 94 and a wheel's come off again. BAD.

Close @ 95 - allowable. OKAY

However, there's no denying the price has entered a new uptrend.
To continue that trend I'd be happy with a 97 close tomorrow.

If it has the muscle, 99 is on the cards too. But that's getting ahead of events; so I'll be happy with a 97 close - or higher if it's to be. All is bullish :)

All above are minimum's.

Could be more on the bullish side as totally not expecting anything bearish with the SP tomorrow.

Finally, what the SP has been threatening to do, finally gets underway.

Ran up some pivot points yesterday but held back from posting the 'suggedtive' redults, as didn't want to confuse by statements of one the onehand but on the other hand etc., etc.,

And that is, I was taken aback to discover the next 2 resistance levels are both 94's. One 93.hihh fractions and the other 94.low fractions. As I have the spreadsheet round off the result was 94 for both of them. Highly unusual. And not a double whammy but a triple whammy as the 200 day trend is currently on the 94's (bugger just won't cease dropping).

So I was expecting another stalled day as anything above 94 was surely asking for too much? But look at the SP go as I type. - Is that sheer strength or wot?!!?
Won't mention the third resistance level so just see if the day can hold above 94 first as that's above the mighty 200 day trend line.

And all the good things can only happen above that level. Nothing good lives below it.

Now let's see what legs it's got in the tank :)

Thanks, January2 & Damonhill.

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For Monday, Short term trends have yet to cross to the upside.
They tend by nature to lag behind anyway, so need another good day or two's performance before they're likely to become stronger, bullish.
(Although the tiny, Ultra-short minor trends are already bullish).

And It's no longer XD period, so that manufactured restraint of a dragging anchor will be absent on Monday. Something positive to look forward to.

( Concludes Part 2 > )

. . . It all depends on when each breakout occurs. I have calculated the highs where the next breakout will turn-tail (should this 9 month pattern continue this summer too).

And it's as follows:

=========

Break out early April - and the highest travel will be to circa 116
Break out by early May and the high would be 118
Break out by end of May and I would expect 119 before the SP pulled back to the lows -

And the lows after each failed breakout from here are as follows:
86 for early April (So clearly Wednesday's 89 close was not a significant low.
Pull back by the end of April and the higher low would have risen to 87.
Pull back by mid-May to the end of May it would be a higher low of 88

=========

So on the one hand, Wednesday's low of 89 is a strength as it was well clear of 86.
So bear that in mind if this goes nowhere next week and it falls back into the 80's - all is safe so long as the SP retraces no lower than 86.

As each month passes and no breakout occurs then the floor rises, as detailed above.

Putting it altogether as the weeks and months move on, so do the highs and lows get higher on each breakout.

Immediate concern is for the SP not to break below 86.
Currently, it looks as if it was happy with an 'insignificant' low of 89.

That does not rule out, a break-out.
And if the SP travels higher next week then look out for the higher-highs shown above. It's possible those higher-highs may not be seen as the 89 low is not significant and could easily mean that the rise over 100 might not be significant either - we'll have to see.

- The SP has been in a rising price channel since last August and has been breaking higher ground imperceptibly for 8/9 months solid now.
Do not let these return trips to the 80's fool you
- it's still a rising SP!

(But you do have to peer close to the screen to see it :)

(Part 1 of 2; This is as short as I could make it to get my point across)
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It's now butting up to almost a full year (early May 2021) since the SP peaked at the All Time High; and from that date retraced alarmingly, only finally finding the ultimate floor by August 2021.

And then painfully rising in torturous set-pieces to no more than level with older prior swing highs on each significant occasion
- only to then go and pull back after each "significant" peak.

Lots of highs - but only 3 significant peaks of note.

And lots of revisits to the near floor of August 2021 and also only 3 significant "higher lows" of note.

So the overall picture is of now 9 months of a slow, slow, recovery.

Clearly the expectation on each of the failed breakout attempts was for a "linear" continuation like the explosive climb over the 5 years before summer of last year. Most stocks are anything but linear for long.
And currently, SLP is now one such case.

Now, if this so-called pattern - a rising channel ie., higher highs and higher lows from August of last year (with only higher highs on 3 significant occasions remember) continues, it may have led to a feeling amongst investors of the SP continuously falling back to the 80's/90's all the time.

That would be an error of observation.

Look at the price action since late last summer - and you will see that torturous rise, with each pullback never quite falling back to the lows of last August, hence the overall picture is one of sparse higher-highs, and sparse higher-lows.

Will this recovery in the SP continue in the same manner?
If so, then here are the projected levels where the SP will turn back on each higher high and higher lows, until the day comes that the big breakout occurs.

That 89 close on Wednesday was quite acceptable to me - as the rising higher lows dictated, that by April the 86p-area would be the likely supportive level.

Fall below that area and it would truly be a break-out to the wrong side and time to get out and stand on the sidelines.
In fact I was hoping it would follow suit and make that new significant low at no lower than circa 86 and then I would wait for the turn and buy stock in a new account.

However, as of Thursday it's not another significant low, and that's okay as most lows have not been since after August of last year.

Now presuppose, that's as far as this retrace goes, but it now travels up to triple figures and I start chirping on about how it's now above the 200 day trend etc.,
- If it follows every single breakout attempt since late last summer, then it's destined to pullback when it hits the higher 100-teens @ currently circa 116p.

It all depends on when each breakout occurs. I have calculated the highs where the next breakout will turn-tail (should this 9 month pattern continue this summer too).

And it's as follows:

=========

Break out early April - and the highest travel will be to circa 116 . . .

(Co

"The 200 has never ceased descending since I last posted. And the lacklustre performance of the SP is evidence of that fact"

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PS.
- Added to making that worse, the SP's been in XD period all that time too, which of course ends on Friday! Nice :)
Better and better chance of getting out from under the downtrend - this week!

Considering the circumstances that was a nice close. Setting up for this being SLP's week.

It's now sitting on micro fractions below the predominant 200 day trend. A good close in at least the 95's will put it clear of the 200 - then it's game on! :) (Again).

The 200 has never ceased descending since I last posted. And the lacklustre performance of the SP is evidence of that fact. Optimistic of a pleasant outcome commencing from tomorrow onwards. Could be another false breakout but Monday's close was a nice set up. Early days though.

Not back until later this week.

I often follow the screening principles of Bill O'Neill one of the US Gurus and was surprised to find Phtm as a top choice this morning as a result of the final trading results. Not only that but Phtm is now selected amongst 7 of the world's differing stock market gurus selection process.

I'm treating that with raised eyebrows in a Victor Meldrew: 'I don' t believe it!' expression after all the pain this stock has exerted on me over the years.

Whatever, Phtm is now flashing up on several selection screens by the high and mighty. I say they're playing with fire but they're the "experts" not I.

Now expecting a decent SP performance in the short term at least.

DYOR though.

" Have found nothing horrible in the numbers yet."
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- Try examining Net Profit v expected market guidance then!

Supposed to be only 3% down against last year. Without advising the market the annual results came in well over 16%+ down/adrift!!

The next 2 years are budgeted to show truly wonderful performance/gains but the market is now doubting the veracity of those claims.

Not back home for another week. If you can't dig out the figures I'll reveal them upon my return.

Ha! LOL! What was it I said last night?
- "100? Well, I'm not expecting to see 100 tomorrow Monday, . . "

No, not that, the other one (although that was bad enough) this:

- "A slow day tomorrow,. . "

Today was anything else but a slow day, and 100? - it was on the cards after all! Almost pulled it off, too.

A good bullish day which surely sets up Tuesday for opening the box containing the triple-digit SP's again?

Incredibly low volume today, so I'm a bit suspicious as it's so low it's probably the lowest in the last full year, but what a stonking performance to confirm the SP solidly above the 200 predominant trend again.

And although the predominant trend is ultra-low in the 90's area - making things a little easier to rise above it, nothing can be taken away from today's SP performance and will surely open above the 200-day trend tomorrow, and close above it too - confirming the SP is back in town!

Game back on? :)

Results well received by the market, resulting in significant recovery in the SP (so far).

Revenue 15% up on last year. Net profit restored against a loss for the year prior to last year.

Analysts have enthused calling it quote: " Progressive recovery".

What's not to like?

Every expectation that price will eventually surpass the old bid buy-out SP attempt - under it's own steam. So any further buy-out attempts are going to have to make spectacular improved offers to compete with the natural growth.

. Only concern is, will the CEO deliberately drag his heels on the recovery? Difficult to know his emotional make up. Will he do a Putin and go all destructive, or what?

Thanks C/Bob. Busy for a fortnight after tomorrow, so sneaking this post in, whilst I can.

100? Well, I'm not expecting to see 100 tomorrow Monday, but will be pleased to be in the wrong in a nice way, should that be the case. In fact, 96 is as much as I dare look for tomorrow (it's where the predominant 200-day trend has currently descended to).
I'm going into Monday expecting it to be very tight with only a 1p movement either way by close.

A 96 close would promise a stronger bullish outlook.

However, everything is sitting on the 200 predominant trend (gulp; dangerous area).
So really need that 96 close tomorrow.

Not fazed with this multiple slippage back below the 200 trend. On the whole, most signs are pointing towards attempts at regaining the bullish momentum, despite the SP's failure to remain above the 200-day trend - again!

Good news is 80's don't have a dog in this fight tomorrow. So for anyone expecting the possibility of seeing 80's tomorrow - I'll take that bet, against that happening :)

A slow day tomorrow, but if it closes no less than 96 - I'll take it with a smile.