Well it is quadruple twitching-hour day today, (options expire) as I've just been reminded elsewhere :) Weird things occur.
So will copy/paste what I posted in response :) . . .
" Good point Tom. Overlooked that one. The third Friday of the month of the Third quarter is the most significant.
Urban stockmarket legend has it that -
What was once trending up, often mysteriously trends downwards, and what was once trending downwards often trends upwards - after the witching hour day!
SLP has been trending down to date. SOoooooo . . . :)
So on this occasion, we should welcome the old market urban myths and legends :)
Good point Tom. Overlooked that one. The third Friday of the Third quarter is the most significant.
Urban stockmarket legend has it that -
What was once trending up, often mysteriously trends downwards, and what was once trending downwards often trends upwards - after the witching hour day.
BT has been trending down to date. SOoooooo . . . :)
So on this occasion, we should welcome the old market urban myths and legends :)
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Bkkbkk - don't have one.
Let it all unfold, as I track all by following how the SP trends.
Volume was fantastic today - as recorded by Daily trading volume alone. And it's shown by a good SP performance too, but it did cut back by close.
It still hasn't got near to a key paired trendline I'm using - only the first base trendline - in fact there has been barely more than one occasion since June that the SP has broke through the first (short term) trendline and kissed the larger twin paired trendline. Not today. Still below the first one. So not getting excited just yet.
More or less.
They have to be "matched". The trades have already taken place. The admin side is not the price side - it's just matching up trades to balance - not new trades.
A lot of it is caught up in administrative tasks. No telling to which trades the UT totals refer to.
In t'olden days pre-computers, in the pit, the jobbers (MM's) would shout and hand signal, with fist fulls of paper IOU's etc., others desperate to unload in a falling price would crowd the jobber with their sale. All they would have as a receipt is a flimsy piece of paper; hence their phrase became general usage:
My word is my bond.
It all had to be matched/tallied up by the end of the day - Uncrossing Trades.
Imagine all that now handled by computers, and still modern computerised technology can't handle it - with most sites having computers that literally "guess" whether a trade is a buy or a sell price (hence so many buys v sells is inaccurate - only the volume traded is a truer reflection).
" When I ever mention ut people say its irrelevant "
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What they mean is that for us PI's it is largely irrelevant insomuch as it refers to all the loose ends that have already occurred during the day. They are not brand new mysterious investors who buy or sell after the market has gone home.
It's already happened and a lot of matching is needed to balance the books.
It does though help define the day's closing price, particularly after the 5-minute 4:35pm auction has concluded.
Well, that's still a good close - 156.
It's clearly 1 step inside the intraday bullish resistance sentiment area, and stands the SP in good stead for Monday.
160's are also in the frame for Monday too as "possible" :)
- and only now showing on Monday is the new 200 day trend of 158 showing up in the calcs as a resistance level.
In fact 158 is the first target of the day.
Whatever occurs the SP simply must not close on 156 - or this escape plan is stillborn.
Minimum acceptable behaviour for Monday is closing no less than 157. Minimum!
So, you could say the first 2 targets for Monday, are the old 200 day level (157) and the current new 200 day level (158)
However 160's are also now visible - in the calcs.
Now if only, one of the guards could just leave a Trimph TR6 leaning against the barbed wire perimeter fence unattended, with the keys in the ignition, and the SP is disgusised with a striking resemblance to Steve McQueen, and he pauses, pretending to tie his shoelace, then . . . maybe . . .
The Shemale @
" (a bit like Velo's 'blow your socks off July', which turned into August, which turned into radio silence).
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'
* * * * * *
Radio silence. Eh?
THE FOLLOWING POSTED BY VELO ON THE 30th AUGUST - go check:
" I disappear up north from mid week, for the next fortnight-ish, so will not be around for the results (so a quick word after this post on the expected results) "
* * * * * *
Somebody get the Shemale a pair of glasses.
(Or failing that, a night school course that assists junior-school-grade understanding in comprehending the posts of others).
- 'Radio silence' my Rrrs!
- I only returned midweek.
Clearly, the Shemale misses me, as that's a couple of unsolicited mentions it's made in its posts about me.
Whatever next? - Fan mail asking: What is my favourite breakfast meal?
Not a coincidence (okay maybe it could be:) that the SP rested no further than 157 all this morning. The significant 200 day trend rose from 157 to 158 yesterday, so natural for the SP to ease up there just under it.
Nice to see a couple of forays trying to surmount 158 today though.... interesting :)
Haven't done any intraday pivot points for today. Just a mo' . . .
. . . have now :)
- and things are looking v nice for Monday, should the SP close the day where it is now.
156 is decent enough to encourage bullish sentiment, but 157 would clinch the deal even more so.
158 isn't a target today - it's straight to the 160's, and they're showing their face again with 160 itself as the top target for today. An hour to go. . . Hmm.
A 158 close would be terrific though.
Believe it or not, 158 (the new 200) is not a pivot point today, the next after 157 is 160. That seems unlikely but a 157 close would be fantastic, as would a 158 which the SP is toying with right now.
It brings an upbeat consideration towards Monday.
- 156/157 are "good".
- Need 160 to destroy the bulls. And I mean outright destroy the buggers!
The 200 is newly planted at 158, so might act as a brake for today.
Whatever, all to the good though. A damn good day so far currently. Optimistic for Monday continuance.
But what will it actually close on?
Not a good enough close today to offer a decisive judgment. The intraday low slipped below 153 to the 152's at one point - but was rebuffed from sinking further. That was good.
- But not enough to get carried away with.
Net result is for Thursday, that targets are real easy tomorrow. That's how weak the market perceives the SP to be - the calcs have set real low levels to overcome. Just a 0.15p rise on today's close would put the SP in a neutral position for Friday - just a fraction; can it do it?
And a mere 156 close would be a victory of sorts. Barely more than a penny.
As it's not a good close, logic dictates unlikely.
And yet it's pleasing how the last card - the Fibonacci 150/151 level is emanating anti-gravity pulses towards the SP. Because if that level goes, I'm likely to take my now small profit off the table and sit things out on the sidelines and re-buy when the retrace is over. The longer the SP remains below the 200 - the worse the longer-term outlook grows. There's no time to lose. Already the 200 is a smidgen of a fraction away from climbing to 158. Eventually, if this retrace continues it will level off, and then commence freefall. And it's back to bad old days of the old 5 year chain-gang and wondering, was it all just a day-dream?
I like how the Fibbo 150/151 level hasn't been challenged even if only intraday, yet. Despite all that noise from the mega volume thrown at the SP on Tuesday, it didn't take a scalp like it did the 200.
Hold that thought for Thursday.
Bears still rule, no question about it - so any half-decent progress tomorrow would be unexpected by the market.
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I've been bashed in my commodity stocks (after seeing glorious profits) due to the worldwide shortage in the semiconductor chip market. Now reading that Telecommunications stocks are threatened by the shortfall too.
Is this the reason for this prolonged retrace? Surprised the more knowledgeable telecommunication engineering posters haven't picked up on this issue
- because if it is, then it's just a matter of holding on for the next year at least. The chip shortage has decimated the worldwide auto industry this summer.
Reports say the telecommunications industry is next; ie., market acting in advance of expected poorer performances due to the chip shortasge???
Also is that why the trading updates have been stalled?
" . . . I understand what you're saying, but how do you charts register Off Book trading? . . . but shadowy trades means the charts can only register a myopic picture. . . etc.,"
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I don't over dwell on it Fleccy.
All that's happening is that two parties decide to cut out the middleman (the MM's) and buy and sell directly to each other with no one looking on.
Only the company registrar has to be informed, to record the new owner, and if large enough, the regulatory authorities, via an RNS.
Depending on the prices paid/received by each of the parties the MM's will subsequently derive a price to affect the market price, even though they were initially out of the loop.
So the wider market "knows" by the price they eventually see, either increasing or falling.
I usually refer to recorded Daily Trading volume, as that's what's touted mostly.
- Yours are for Total volume.
There isn't usually a great deal of difference, but normally a difference none the less, except for exceptional Drahi cases which you can count on one hand per year - if that.
- For instance, you posted Total volume of 55m.
- Daily trading volume that I usually refer to (because it's highly visible for the charts on the day) was 51m+ on the same day.
I can live with that because it's compared to the same category (Daily Trading volume) so the percentage movements match up.
Although Drahi's purchase was a rule-breaker/regulations-breaker, though. No doubt about it. At the most generous if not dishonest, it was not in the spirit of transparency and honesty.
More deliberate obfuscation to hide and deceive, to attain a financial advantage over the unsuspecting - technically a crime.
I'm okay with that (not Drahi) but okay with total volume v daily trading volume, varying. (Saw 57m on another site - higher than your 55m).
I don't overuse volume in decision making as a rule. It's only of relevance to me if it's at either end of the scale.
We, as distanced private investors, can never 'know all' that occurs in the market - never!
There's always underhand insiders ahead of us who know before anyone else
- always.
I deal with the hand, life deals me, and make do as best I can.
PS. Clearly in Drahi's case he knows 'people' otherwise, you and I, would find ourselves being investigated by the securities fraud squad if we tried to pull what he pulled. The world is not always a fair place, for ordinary Joe public.
"However, more trouble ahead should the SP close, closer to 153 than 155 tomorrow".
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Not that it matters much, but was too generous there, should have been:
"However, more trouble ahead should the SP close, closer to 153 than 157 tomorrow".
Any close on Wednesday under 157 is unwelcome news, IMO.
(SP musings applicable for Wed only).
Within 10 minutes of today's Tuesday open, the intraday history shows the SP had crested up to the topside of 160 - and was immediately hit by a wave of bearish selling.
The bear attack never ceased all day, but apart from a stand-off from 11:15 am to 1:30pm where the SP defiantly, just would not let go of 157 - the bears increased the pressure far more in the afternoon, and finally dragged it below the 200 day trend.
Just as I was thinking, the SP might be flirting, but it keeps pulling back from kissing the 200 day trend line, then whoosh so much selling in the afternoon the SP got waterboarded until it caved-in and sunk under the 200 day trend.
Well above the average trading volume for the day - in the top 10% days of highest volumes over the past 12 months!
(PS. That oversold condition that looked as if it had terminated, is back in play, and has changed shape to a more sprawling mess - so the SP is tonight back in Oversold territory; worth bearing in mind for the termination of that condition
- 160 this morning, was as far as it got away from the prior 'apparent' termination: that's cruelty).
Big pension funds who drop stocks that fall out of the FTSE100 may also use the 200 day trend as an additional warning "confirmer" for those equities that have not been demoted from a higher index but have crossed a "red line"
(PS. The infamous 'death cross' favoured by the institutions is well away from occurring yet).
Who was doing today's massive selling at this late stage since the June retrace commenced?
Majority of trends as you can guess are resolutely bearish. No matter what I post here - that is the position - bears rule! Not nice.
Whatever, I regard this close @ 155 as in similar territory as the 159/158 was previously. The SP floating just above the 200 day trend and now just floating a little below it. So bouncing off around the 200 trend is still in play.
- However, more trouble ahead should the SP close, closer to 153 than 155 tomorrow.
The 150/151 area is now looking more like the OK Coral final showdown where it'll all get decided, if the SP slips more towards 153 tomorrow.
Haven't done any studies on volume around the 200 day trend; I tend just to observe whether it slows up around there or goes skating past - into oblivion. Living below the 200 day trend is to be resisted. It's okay for a day or two, maybe a week or so, but that's all!
I'm nicely in profit, and still looking to top-up, but only when I get confirmation this retrace floor is in. This 150's area is as good a place as any to get a bearing on events, before making further assumptions. Not topping-up until the retrace ceases, and the trends commence turning to the upside.
(Have some god-awful lower Fibonacci levels awaiting to share, if the SP can't head-butt it's way out of trouble around here - in the 200 day trend area; but don't want to mention those unless this 50% Fibbo level is lost to the bears ie., 150/151).
" Velo I'd be interested to read your views around charting and the impact of Algo trading. Since many traders use charting to govern their trades, does that make a large body of trades predictable and at the mercy of the Algo's?..."
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Hi Fleccy, not back home until midweek-ish, so fitting in this reply whilst available time to hand -
I am (or try to be :) a trend follower so you could say my moves are therefore very, very, predictable, to either an algo or a market hedge fund manipulator.
However, I don't depend on one set of trends. I have a set for every occasion and draw a conclusion of opposing trends within larger trends, from micro up to ultra long term.
Algo's don't worry me in the normal course of events as I follow the trends anyway
- whoever's behind them.
In other words I don't fight the algo's I move with them, or attempt to.
If the trends are a direct result of Algo's or the Drahi's/ wider market, I wouldn't know as I can either go long in an upswing, whoever is responsible for it - or short if of that mind, in a downswing.
But! I do notice the effects of the Algo's in the (5 minute) intra-day trading areas. One has to be more than emotionless in a 5 minute timescale, otherwise chart "certainties" that nearly always work in the normal course of events fail spectacularly in day trading.
PS. This is the second oversold condition in BT in a week or so, that has not terminated in a decent upswing, but a continuation of the downtrend.
Usually the SP has a little flutter to the upside on exiting an oversold condition and one has just terminated in BT this week/last Friday.
(So on the lookout for a potential upswing).
Is this, longer than usual down trend in BT, prolonged because of the algo's?
I don't concern myself with that - only in perfecting ironclad discipline in following the trends - my biggest failing in investing/trading, ie., thinking I know better than what the trends are displaying!
It's a moot point procrastinating whether a trend should be longer or shorter than it is, and conclude it's the work of algo's cutting short or extending events beyond expectations.
I have no idea what's behind this "sudden" prolonged retrace from June except as I posted in the summer: who's going to continue with the excessive buying now that Drahi has said he's laid up buying and closed his wallet?
What concerns me about the SP right now, is the reaction to encountering the 200 day trend line. It's a worldwide industry standard. It should rebuff the descending SP as I can discern no obvious reason for the extended retrace this summer apart from it being a characteristic of BT to have unimpressive summers. Just as it's a characteristic of BT to have a pleasing positive SP performance in the autumn/early winter months. (cyclicals ie., Oct/Nov/Dec).
- All I've got time for.
Potentially interesting point/or turning point next week.
Finally, for the first time since last year, the SP has sunk to within a few pence of the major 200 day trend (now climbed up to 157).
I expect the SP will either bounce off it, like it touched an electrified fence, or if there's more to this retrace than is apparent, sink past it and keep on sinking to lower levels.
However, just so happens there's another significant (Fibbo) level (distinct from the 200 trend) around the 150/151 area so the SP could "look" as if it's going to get worse but instead bounce off the 150/151 area instead.
A sort of synchronisation with the 200, bar a few single pence. A good combo!
Not unusual for a SP to bounce a couple of pence above the major 200 trend line (where it is now) or a little below it. Whatever, entering 150's does line up with some indicative areas.
So, potentially a resolution to this retrace
if you're an optimist.
Worse to come if the SP breaks through the lot though. Last stand fight here. First thing Monday, is to see if it bounces straight away, leaving the 150's behind.
Those Mississipi bloodhounds have tracked down the prison-breakout SP. They've been on the scent since November last year. Time for the SP to do another Steve MCQueen Great Escape; kick-start that Triumph TR6!
" pensions no doubt calculated when projected annual returns were supposed to be 7% in a pre era of higher returns ...which are now non existant.... all the huge extra payments having to make up the difference..... "
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- And the then BT management of back in the day, decided that they could take a pension contribution holiday too - and for a considerable period, paid nothing into the fund (like many companies back then did).
It didn't have to get as bad as it did, but the old dogs back then, pocketed the contributions intended for the pension fund. (Spending it on buying back their own shares when the SP was at the top of the market).
You're making the-then management sound like innocent angels.
Their poor decision made things much worse. Laws were introduced to prevent that ever happening again, but that Philip Green fella was still ripping off the workers pension funds only the other year or so, ago!
Hi Fleccy,
Wetherboy is correct. It's a full repeat copy of the old update!
Thought: That can't be right. So laboriously entered the pertinent data into my BT spreadsheets
- And it is a 100% complete copy of the last update!
I'm ready to believe it's an administrative error and they've mistakenly posted the previous update in error. Shabby work if it's a lack of time issue.
I assume the brokerage houses have clients who pay for the analysts' full reviews so can't imagine all 20+ of them decided to give it a miss at the same time; so going with the admin error.
Hi Stoodio,
100 it is then! ( I had that as the second target to beat - but didn't expect it :)
On a similar note, a 103 close tomorrow is fine with me.
And if it's as perky tomorrow as today, then 105/106 is also on the cards.
Should the SP take a day off tomorrow then it can still be regarded as bullish to neutral mood, even if it closes down at 98 (but defo no lower IMO :)
Where the close is tonight, is still in the trend vicinity that two previous occasions in previous weeks gave up the ghost (but were at a higher SP) and returned to the downtrend.
(Hence no lower than a 98 close is acceptable tomorrow - but no lower!)
All this week up to Friday has a bullish bias - it's Monday next week, that's anybody's guess; although if July and Aug had performed as in previous years, then I wouldn't expect much from the SP in Sept anyway - but all that has turned on it's head, so it's all up for grabs for September this year, IMO.
Still too early to get the first meaningful trend in the bag, but the Ultra Short term trend ('Minor trend') is now firmly bullish, will do in the meantime :)
Need to take the high ground on the topside of the 200 trend eventually, and is the ultimate battle plan aim, and holding it to win the war
- and that's 108 (for starters) in my book (110 to others on 'raw' data).
No one wins, and there is no victory until the 200 gets taken down
- it's only single-digit pence away from tonight's close - but it's (200) still rising daily, so no time to lose).
I'm musing over 120 being "fair play for the current situation" in the coming weeks/months should the chip situation and metals pricing show no improvement. Some say the chip situation will resolve "soon", others from next year.
Yet media reports last week quoted one manufacturer saying they had been told their semi conductor chip orders are on a 12-month back-order waiting list, so the article concluded that the situation with chips will resolve slowly over - . . . years
- before full needs are met on a regular basis.
I think SLP has suffered worse than THS and JLP because of that Q4 update.
(Net profit fell by 64% in Q4 alone).
And also PGM production fell 6.5% in that Q4 period too, with "the quality of the feed" from client mines dropping, meaning fewer ounces from the ore it processes - thus leading to the next issue - raised costs!
- And one thing SLP is known for - is as a superb low-cost operator. That now looks under some threat should the poor quality feed continue into H1 and beyond.
Add on the other external issues and the market has responded negatively.
I took fright after the ATH intraday high of 148 or so, was reached in spring, and didn't look like it would return there soon, and then feeling uncomfortable with so much of an overweight position (especially as I took on additional positions in a cyclical/seasonal experiment at the same time) that for peace of mind I have been 'top-slicing' furiously to bring my overweight holdings down to manageable levels and thus lock-in some of the profits.
120 is my re-test area.
But feel happier having banked profits, and now feel lighter, slimmed down.
Q1 will inevitably be compared unfavourably once again to a now comparative high-level Q4
- but Q1 will still be seriously higher than Q1 last year, as will Q2 too, should the current metals price area hold. So this new 21/22 trading year should be okay.
I have no real fears for the full results next Monday (SLP's reputation as a high margin operator is seen in Q4 despite the fall in Q4 profit; SLP's profit margin in Q4 is higher than most others)
- it might only suffer when the media compares recent Q4 performance and any info in the results appertaining to the new current year of Q1 (didn't read of an end to the raw poor quality feed coming into SLP).
Rhodium is still undersupplied in most analysts opinion, so despite automotive lay-off's due to chip shortages, Rh may yet come back in price somewhat (and save the day?)
" Anyway on to this week, I'm expecting, as ever :) for us to break right our up and over the squid mark. "
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Hi Stoodio,
Yes, only 4 trading days left until the results are published next Monday morning, so SP looking like it wants to run up bullishly to that day before the results.
I disappear up north from mid week, for the next fortnight-ish, so will not be around for the results (so a quick word after this post on the expected results)
As a characteristic of SLP, I've associated it as a stock that performs to the maxim: Buy On The Rumour And Sell On The News, in that over the past 5 years or so, the Q4 update comes out at the v end of July (and they've always been good to excellent) with the result that August became a knock-your-socks-off month in SP performance expectations of the full results in early September.
And almost always, after a superb August, the SP underperformed by the close of September - after receiving the good results!
This year, due to events outside SLP's control, the SP in July and August (usually superb performing months SP-wise) got blown out of the water to smithereens, with a big game-show booming: Uhh-ohh! miss this year.
So might that August rise be postponed until the results actually come out?
- or will events unfold as they usually do in September?
Or will the next 4 days 'be it'?
NB:
" As of Friday's close all 3 are closer to the vicinity of their 50% levels. "
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- Apart from Palladium, which is at the 38.2% level.