Member Info for Velo

Only now reading the house broker's analyst's report that accompanies today's H1 release. (Didn't think there'd be one today as H1 is "old" known news).

And I think one thing in the report might have had the causation of the market over reacting via the SP.

First, did you pick up that the special divi has been announced of 2.25p today? The broker's analysts have expressed they thought the dividend would have been higher given the cash pile SLP are sitting on.

Question:
Is that the cause of the exaggerated reaction to the known H1 results? In the absence of SLP specific bad news I'm assuming it was - the special divi being less than the market was expecting.

It's 2.25p per share.
The SP goes XD next week on the 3rd March
Payable the following month on 22nd April.

So, might sentiment rise in the days next week leading up to XD commencement (to be followed by the inevitable, immediate decline in the SP as XD period gets underway)?

Here's what might influence market sentiment if this latest rot in the SP abates. The analyst is impressed with the new additions of added growth announced (Analyst planned for only 2 new buckets but he's delighted SLP announce clarity - with 3 new ventures).

The analyst says they have not added the additional growth the new ventures will bring to their forecasts until the new plants and extra value from open-cast mining projects have been 'approved'
- then they'll be updating their forecasts to ADD in the additional growth that SLP gave clarity today. Liberum are encouraged by it, and reiterate their buy rating.

So
1)
Let those disappointed by the lower than expected special dividend sell out, and maybe divi hunters will take up the slack, halting further decline before XD day?

2)
Critics might call the new ventures jam-tomorrow wishes, but Liberum, are not adding in the proposed additional growth until the plans have been approved. So, they're enthused for the next 18 months to 3 years of additional growth for SLP.

I have the likely increase in oz's (analysts figures) but will post those another time as busy all this week, from tomorrow until late next week

Although today’s pullback, signalled its potential presence with Friday’s close, I decided not to post my thoughts then, as the previous day’s close, Thursday, I had commenced with: “What a terrific close”.

And there I was 24 hours later, wanting to post the exact opposite to the week’s close!

As Friday’s poor close preceded today’s apparent reaction to the official H1 release (something that was already well known) it begs the question of whether the H1 was the sole reason or just the catalyst. Whatever, price is now back below the predominant trend, with that 200-day trend now further sinking (as expected) into the 100’s. Even if price rises from here, the 200-day trend will continue falling for some time yet. So not looking forward to it descending into the 90’s (probably by or before, next week).

That shows just how important it is for price ie., sentiment, to keep to the topside of the 200-day trend. It’s a near calendar year-long trend that can not be ignored with contempt.

Clearly, the SP has failed to best/close above the most recent high of near 103. So I’m not willing to draw longer-term conclusions from that except to say a bit of pushing and shoving around here was not entirely unexpected. There will be other attempts. Don’t think anyone was hoping for a full recovery, only a “fairer” SP position in relation to the chip crisis. The latest Chip company CEO responses are to talk of visible improvement in the second half of the calendar year - too late for SLP’s full 12 month close at the end of June.

In other words, all benefits should show in trading year ending 2023 onwards, not this year concluding in June.

Looked like maybe a chance of fair-play being closer to the 110 vicinity was on the cards, but currently, even the last swing high of 103 has so far proven unobtainable. But that was only the first attempt. Also it’s the first time since the ultimate floor back in August that price has opened and closed above the 200 day trend, albeit for one day only.

Game of poker deciphering when the next attempt might be. But there will be another.

Typo!

Meant 102.2 - not 102.5

Tsk!

102.5 What a terrific close!

Came back to check the close virtually at the day's end, expecting 101 to have held but was surprised to see the buy price now listed as 101 itself, up from 100. So, when I clicked SLP to open, 102 was revealed as the closing price!

I was left thinking what a damn good close, buyers coming in at the 11th hour; bodes well for tomorrow, the last day of the week.

Later, if I'm about, I also like to check at post 4:50pm-ish as all the bits and bobs can take a while to settle and was v surprised to see a close after hours, even higher at 102.5!

Checked with the stock Exchange and they too were showing the close as 102.5 but the day's high as only 102. The after-hours auction has revealed pent-up buying demand - maybe they'd given up on a lower buying price, thus driving the price higher in the 4:35pm, 5 minute after-hours auction?

So, won't be surprised if 103 shows up at some point during tomorrow's proceedings, with that kind of demand.

Ist TP (Target Price) achieved. Will it hold?

Still fuel in the Relative Strength tank, so not ruling out that 103 (2nd TP) tomorrow.

I'm not so confident of seeing near 110 (3rd TP) on this particular bull run, but I am (fairly) confident-ish of seeing it by the end of this month close.

After that? . . . . It all depends on the contribution of PGM market prices, as they're still recovering.
(One chip manufacturer CEO has said this week, that she thinks we will now see a much greater measurable improvement in the silicon chip supply chain in the second half of this year).

But anyway, over £1 is at the very minimum, much fairer in relation to the chip situation. One expected the SP of SLP to take a hit, but visiting the 80's 3 times so far did seem an extreme over reaction IMO.

Officially as of tonight's close, price (although slim) now sits above the 200 day trend! Yay! Take 'em down one at a time! Don't have to bag the lot in one day :)

Won't be surprised if there's a bit of argey-bargy, pushing/shoving and tooing and frowing for a week or so around the 200 as it often likes to extend a dying-hand from the grave and grab your fleeing leg, like the hero character in a movie, escaping from a zombie-vampire.

The performance in January, and so far in February indicate the old characteristic pulse of the SP's past 5 year performance still beats under the weight of the chip crisis and like Arnie in the Terminator, if you listen you can hear the SP's deep, Austrian, guttural intonation of:
I'll be back!

Since I last posted (last week) that the ‘Short’ term SP trend still hadn’t left bearish territory, it did in the day or two following, cross over to the upside to bullishness. And is strengthening. (Triple figures as I post :)

As suggested the 200-day trend has continued to descend (bearishly) to such a level that the SP only has to achieve 101+and fractions, to meet it. However, a clear penny above it would be be encouraging as hanging by the fingernails is not a happy state to be in.

Annoyingly, the medium-term trend is defiantly bearish and would need to see the SP sit higher than the last swing high (103 area) and probably the one before that at almost 110 to give a full house.

Here, IMO, is where the SP sits (change/s have been from bearish to bullish; none have gotten worse since previously) -

SLP Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish

Long term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = BULLISH

PS.
I understand there are now 2 brokers covering SLP. Try as I might I can't uncover the second broker to House broker Liberum.

Checking elsewhere, I find the guidance forecast for Net Profit has been increased, yes, just as Liberum has published, but the amount is far lower and only a little above the prior forecasts and now shows $75m, against Liberum's $90.1m

That's up, increased on what the guidance was before Q2 came out, but way below Liberum's $90.1m forecast.

I'd be more inclined to the $75m, but the Liberum analyst has more facts, so . . .

• I’ve lost count of the number of weeks (weeks, not days) that the highest level govt officials including the president of the US, have issued warnings stating to expect that Russia is ready/could invade Ukraine within the next 2 days. The latest was yesterday, on Sunday.

Meanwhile the president of Ukraine has said he knows of no plans for Ukraine to be invaded imminently, within the next 2 days.

That's a lot of 2 days that's gone by... geez . . . if they missed their forecasts like that on forums like this, their feet wouldn't touch the ground with raspberry catcalls. Yet the integrity of their forecasting remains intact.

------------------------

- Have the Liberum's, analyst’s Q2 report to hand (Ben Davies) and the first thing I want to confirm is there never was a sell rating downgrade applied to SLP, as suggested by a poster on here.

It clearly says BUY rating maintained!

And the second thing, is that it comes with warnings against my ID as:
- Prepared Solely for Velo. Not For Distribution Anywhere. Strictly for Personal Use.

So can’t copy/paste the analyst’s report here.

- But I can paraphrase :)

Liberum have headed the Q2 report : Mixed Results.

So it was off to a bad start.
However, dominating the report is the larger font of BUY at the top of it.

- And it’s in the second half of the year that the analyst highlights despite weaker guidance, he’s still expecting production to lift in the 2nd half due to new projects coming on stream.

Despite lowering the Target Price to 150p he’s still maintaining a Buy rating on SLP.

I thought I saw an increase in forecasts in one of my subscription packages, but went to double-check and they were down all Sunday for maintenance. But don’t need to now, as the analyst's Q2 report, sees him increasing full-year trading results to those that stood before Q2.

Talk about doubling down, and sticking to your guns when criticised:
He’s increased Revenue for the full year up to $204.9
- That’s approx only $3m less than last year’s actual record results!

And whizzing straight down to the bottom line of Net Profit he’s increased that to $90.1m

That’s full-year Net Profit (or underlying Net Income as he labels it) massively up on prior guidance that stood before Q2!

So can the price truly have fallen on this report alone?
It’s seeming more likely that the market saw H1 and how far the road ahead is, to achieve the new improved full year’s guidance and did a Victor Meldrew of:
“I don’t believe it!”

So a 150 analyst forecast target price?
Another site has reduced its valuation of SLP from £6-odd down to a paltry . .
. . . wait for it
. . . wait for it
. . . 374p!

Just highlighting those two, for the 84pencers valuators out there :) :)

I think the SP is hell-bent on visiting the 160's.

So did a Fibbo from the crash of 2020 to the ATH of late last year, and if the SP is due to find a floor, then the Fibonacci calculation is suggesting the 167 area might be it.

Might consider doubling down should that transpire and the SP ceases falling.

All IMO only, as often prices can go screaming past Fibbo levels but there are other Fibbo levels below the 167 area (which will remain unmentionable).

( Part 2 concludes )

. . . So, 101's is the first target before any celebrations can begin.

Secondly, a rising share price is not a true rising share price, if it can't even beat a very recent swing high, that in itself, is massively below the highs that preceded it. And that recent high is that of the failed 3rd peak of the 21st January at circa just fractions below 103 area - so currently a double whammy resistance area of a former swing high peak and where the 200 was then in the low 100's.
- and all the more sweeter if they can both be bagged by the SP in the coming day's/weeks.

Pre-supposing that is achieved then thirdly, the next target after those two, is just about the top side of the failed prior swing high peak of 110 that occurred in late October.

After that, it's over to Rh to step up to the plate. As that will be a very testing watershed area (110) for the SP, just as 19,000 will be for Rh.

So currently things looking v bullish, yes. But those caveats to beat, before considering further progress.

Summary:
Immediate (resistance targets)
-101
&
103,

then
110

( Page 1 of 2 )

" VELOOOOOO. What happening wiv da lines? "

-------------------

Saw your posts only briefly Stoodio, but had no time to respond yesterday.

First off, in general, when all is reasonably well, I take action on buys when the Short term trend is bullish. Unfortunately, it's responding slowly to this week's bullish turn of events. It looks like it's in the process of crossing to the upside but officially it remains bearish.

Not so with the faster, ' Head's-Up', Ultra Short Term trend - that turned bullish on Tuesday! But mostly I don't overly take too much notice of that canary; I demand more confirmation from the longer trends.

Also, it's 50/50 with a variety of other indicators et al.
When like that, I love to view the-decider, and that makes the picture clear - and that trend is roarishly bullish!

Further up, is a mixture in sentiment in the longer trends, so a mixed bag there.

I think the 50/50 thing is part and parcel of the concerns I have over the 200 day trend.

PRINCIPLE GUIDING STAR RULE:
Price above the 200 and all is possible.
Price living below the 200 and nothing can be achieved, as all is doom and gloom.

Price is living below the 200 day trend - and - the 200 has now descended down to the 101's area (adjusted for dividends etc; not pure stats) and falling still at a pace.

So my immediate concern for the SP is the 101 area.

All previous occasions when price had come into the sphere of influence of the 200 day trend ended with price getting swatted away, and the odd occasions it bested the 200 (since the floor in August of last year to week ending 21st January) the SP just about kissed the 200 and immediately got swatted back - on the same day - and ran off like a scalded cat, closing down in the red.

The SP has attempted a couple of times like that, to break through, up and past the now dome-like sphere of the arching overhead 200 day trend (as it has ceased rising and worryingly is in fast descent mode currently) initially towards the end of October/beginning of November which was the 2nd peak since the SP floored in August, and very recently again on that 21st January when the SP peaked in a dismal, weak looking (3rd??) peak.

So that leaves two immediate jobs for the SP to accomplish, which until Rh is truly back in the saddle is asking a lot; if successful then a third job to achieve.

And the first is to start occupying the space above the 200 day trend of 101p
That trend will keep on descending for a considerable time, even if the SP continues rising all next week as it has done for the past few days now.
That 200 day trend has come down to the SP making it "easy" for the SP to have a pop at it. So should the SP fail to best the 200 that'll be a far bigger, more serious concern.

So, 101's is the first target before any celebrations can begin.

Secondly, a rising share price is not a

(Continues > > > )

Just confirming a nice deal with Research Tree (Better than the one RobbieBurn's Naked Trader site is offering so Ssshh....: )
Which allows me to only subscribe as and when I like rather than hefty fees per annum.
So will have it later today or tomorrow (as busy this afternoon) the full typescript of that analyst's (Ben) review of the Q2 trading report. And can see what he said. And will share it if interested.

Was the decrease due to that analysis?
- or the market disbelieving the full year will be achieved now they've effectively seen the half year trading report?

Still seeing only analysts buy ratings though. (not just buy but listed as Strong buy).

t

Or the shorer version:
Yes I think the floor is in for SLP.
:)

Hi Stoodio,

4400 was the target floor area for the S&P area for a general market floor for this early part of the year.

4560's currently in futures and if that holds until 2:30pm opening time I'm mildly leaning to the floor being in, as in past weeks it was whizzing up and down way past 4400.

My view is that the US lifting out of the malaise will be good for international markets. I am hoping for a better 2nd half to February for SLP.
So I'm tentatively leaning towards optimisim for SLP in the second half of February and a modest triple figure SP by month's close.

Weird that, as US futures indicate the US markets will open in an hor's time in blistering style with rising indices already. In fact they're far higher than when I looked this morning on our open.

Oops and the link is:

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#offer-structures

Beza - Here's the regulatory timetable for take-over bids. Click the link and scroll down to No:2 TIMETABLES - and then click the PDF link.
(Within that PDF download, scroll down to pages 11/12) .

As far as I can tell the initial "First Closing date" is 21 days after the bid is announced. Objections etc., extend that as per the timetable.

"... analysis of the SP chart will show that the impact was relatively short-lived..."
------------

Well I did say fell for "weeks".
Weeks did not imply fall permanently never to recover.

The subtext of my post is that a greater price for top-up's may be obtained in those weeks than the closing price of the first day announcement - if things aren't different this time and it retraces further for a week or two, but who knows? :)

Ahh this was the bit:
" Photo-Me tells shareholders to take no action while an independent committee considers the offer."

Have a regulatory timetable of events of the time-line involved. Will post it later today if I can dig it out.

And that takes out all resistance levels set in Sept of last year, leaving the next, toughest resistance level yet, that of 19,000 that dominated the majority of August last year. Great Rh performance over the past couple of days.