Member Info for Velo

Hi CheddarBob,

Was looking further at Rhodium prices (JM site) back-history today (as there’s been a couple of price “crashes” over the years in Rhodium).
Others might offer a view on the future forecast prices of Rh, but it’s worth keeping in mind, how swift the record increases have been for comparison purposes.

SLP commenced recovery from a submarine-like dive in its SP from when it launched as an IPO on the stock market back in 2011 (as did Rh) and didn’t commence recovery of a crashed SP until the 2016 era.
And then performed spectacularly from that day, to this year’s summer without seemingly pausing for breath.

Rhodium too, was in footstep all the way, as SLP’s SP rose through the years. Both have exponentially rocketed in the last year or two.

In particular as you ask about the future of Rhodium, the rise in its price was equally dramatic.

By Jan 2016 Rh was down to just $625 per ounce.
The following year by Aug 2017 it had risen to 1,000
By Jan 2020 it had charged up to 6,000
Barely a year and a quarter later March 2020, it had exploded up to 13,800
From there it flew to an ATH in May this year to just under 30,000 !!!

So, I’m not confident of offering a counterview to any observers of Rhodium. And looking at that low of 625 back in 2016, it shows how volatile a situation, things can be with Rhodium.

If one “anchors” to the ATH of 29,800 back in May, might that be a dangerous assumption to do so?

Returned after a trip up north to post I’d sold at 146 and banked puny profits so I can still post that I’m still in overall profit despite multiple, numerous trades in BT over the years; but was utterly appalled by yet another poor showing of support for Fleccy after the completely unnecessary and atrocious attacks by:

a pig****-thick thug,
a sociopathic psycho,
and a disgusting midgetd!ck Jimmy-Saville-type sexual deviant.

Only 3 posters spoke up in support of Fleccy.
Three!
Worse, some of the trio of weirdo’s attacks received thumbs up. (Please god it was from the deviants high-fiving each other and not you lot!)

Who wants to be in the company of such deviants? Not me.
Particularly posters who stand by, do nothing, and let weirdo’s p!zz all over the forum, and have zero interest in BT to boot!

So, a flying visit only, to also add, I will be re-entering when the trends change bullishly, but not posting my adventures here.

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As the Fibbo level of the 151 area held of the barbarian hordes for awhile, it’s worth considering that the 137/138 (current prices) is the next Fibbo level down. So potentially a bounce from this area?
If not to be, then the next Fibbo support is showing as the high 100-teens of circa 117/119 area.

After that, nothing between that and 100. But that’s Fibbo retracement levels. If it’s to live up to its name that includes the word ‘retracement’ in it, then it needs the SP to bounce up, from one of them, which currently the latest, is right now in the high 130’s.

Thanks for the Rh update – yes, at 14,200 that’s now just a measly $100 below the prior (absolutely puny) prior Rh high of 14,300 on the 7/8th Oct.
Bear in mind, not a single prior high has been surpassed by Rh since May, not one!
– the very definition of a bear market. And still to be proven by Rh.

So it bears repeating, of all the failed breakout attempts by SLP’s SP this is the very first time since May, when this retrace commenced, that the SP has succeeded in breaching its first prior high of circa early September.

Clearly, the SP is now inching slowly ahead of Rh events, suggesting to me the market is re-evaluating its stance on the SP as the market gains a more nuanced expectation for the future of Rh & the chip crisis.

Rh, first has to “prove” it’s following likewise, by rising higher than that puny Oct7/8th high of 14,300 and march on the genuine previous swing high of late Sept which was at 14,500

It’s quite a thing to say the SP is moving ahead of Rh recovery since it collapsed from the ATH in May, but that’s exactly the case currently!

Short term to intermediate trends are still bullish. All is still "on".

However, after so many blue days of gains, it's entirely within the realms of a bullishly trending stock to have occasional day/days of red bearish days.

I was expecting the SP might throw a wobbly today. In fact as much as I agree with the bullish trends, I will be surprised if today closes in the blue. It would feel 'natural' and yet still remain in a bullish uptrend, if it did close in the red.

On the little gizmo's calcs I play with now and then, It "could" be a further delay in progress tomorrow if (Aye-up personal opinion coming) the SP closes at anything below 108.

A couple of days in red would be a good thing IMO, before a serious assault on the mighty 200 day average trend sitting at 111 is attempted, which incredibly after this summer, is still rising!
As It's a little over 111 now, I would need to see a minimum of 112 (pronto like) and building on that, before calling it in.

So I'm currently bullish, but remain wearing a bearish scowl until the 200 gets itself owned by the SP.

No 200 buried underfoot, and the SP goes nowhere.
- Sunny uplands and all that once the SP looks in its rearview mirror and says its goodbyes to the 200

Your opinion may differ :)

PS.
" So, if it falls any further then . . . "

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Sorry, forgot to say, as the SP is at the 50% Fibbo support level currently, it's entirely possible that this could be the floor for the SP where it is right now.

Which leaves you back with "if" - if it falls any further from here :)

Been awhile since I checked in here and what do I find? The SP locked in a vicious pullback; any longer and it’ll be a full blown retrace!
(Net profit at the annuals is a cool £1m down against last year's results; market disappointed?)

This bear downtrend is quite committed.

So where will the SP bottom out?

Guesswork now, but it’s currently (and coincidentally) at the 50% Fibonacci level if you give credence to such things.
So, if it falls any further then the next Fibbo level is in the 172 area.

And should it not be finished there, then the next level is further down at the 158’s.

Initially should the SP find the floor at the next level @ say circa 172’s then I’ll consider an initial part-tranche buy, but only if the trends turn to the upside first which means buying in the 172’s will be out of it, and I’d most probably only get bullish trend signals maybe several pence higher.

We’ll see.

(Concludes) > > >

. . . The truth is no one knows for sure. That's the whole point. Was it Bangrak who posted recently of valuing the SP as only being worth £1.20?

I think he was using DCF but the only common thread is that all DCF users will come up with entirely differing valuations from each other but are united in dismissing everyone else's!

The difference between you and marineclark, is that he is consistent - whilst you are inconsistent. Game, set and match to marineclark's viewpoint.

I give consideration to his views - none to your DCF views.

PS. If it takes a year for £1.50 to arrive as you prophesise, I will of course apologise.
(No pressure on marineclark then who says sooner rather than your later :) :)

Quiggers @
". . . -£6 is just being silly IMHO with SWS using a DCF log based on sky high base rather than normalised earnings and applying silly growth rates and even sillier discount rates. . . "

- Poppyc@ck and balderdash! No one knows anything for certain, least of all you.

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And Quiggers @
" PE ratios have nothing to do with valuation/fair value/ intrinsic value.
PE ratio is pricing and just one of many such pricing formulae. "

- Utter baloney, a total misunderstanding of P/E's,

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I find P/E ratio's best used to discover where the market places a particular stock in relation to all it's competitors within its own industry. In other words it assists in revealing current market SENTIMENT towards a stock. And that's invaluable!

DCF valuations are extremely unreliable, overrated, and many authoritative articles on the internet citing DCF as past its sell-by-date for reliability.
I mean, what the hell is this obsession with using 60% as the discount rate otherwise if not, you'll go straight to hell?
Who told you to use 60% as the life or death discount rate %?
Did god whisper it in your ear?
Did Buffett phone you to make sure you only use that?

The end result is that since your first post on SLP (in July I think) you've changed your DCF valuation constantly, never adhering to your own valuations for more than 10 minutes, and yet you chirp on as if only your way matters, and no other.

Here's a sample of what I'm referring to -

Quiggers 13th July @
" fk it. Im all in. Bought the dip. Now 40% of portfolio up from 30%.
When u believe... you believe.
200p is there.
Nothing has changed. "

- So 200p, is that your evaluation then in July, just gone? And to back that up, you later reinforce your certainty 3 days later on the 16th July with:

" Intrinsic value can change overnight. But not the case here. SLP still a 200+p stock and it doesn't need Rh to be at these current levels either. "

- Okay I get it - 200p it is, but with a "+".
(Then 2 days later you adjust your stance to now declare):

" I arrive at DCF equity valuation of £1.76 on the following assumptions: . . ."

- What? After twice citing 200 your beloved DCF is still reliable and now offers up £1.76?
Well, okay £1.76 it is then.

Then on 18th July you demonstrate why all DCF valuations are so unreliable by posting:

" One can always increase to say 15% to 20% in which case the intrinsic value will be lower, around the 1.40 mark as I see it "

Hmmm as you 'see it'. But this week you now see it as currently £1.50? LOL! Can't keep up.
So with that inbuilt unreliability - why so certain, and so dismissive of others opinions?

The truth is no one knows for sure. That's the whole point. Was it Bangrak who posted recently of valuing the SP as only being worth £1.20?

I think he was using DCF but the only common thread is that all DCF users will come up with entirely differing valuations from each other

:)

What's the highest 'fair value' SP valuation, from any source, that you've ever seen for SLP and thought that's far too outlandish (or too low) ?

Just had an email from Simply Wall Street, with their latest analysis update on SLP.

I've been used to their valuation as showing the SP (as all analysts by common consensus do) as well undervalued
- and they have for the past year valued the SP at £4-odd it. But not tonight.
They're now valuing it, as of tonight, as fair value being at -

£6.56 !

Any takers for ever seeing higher? :)

The forward P/E ratio I'm seing for SLP is P/E3.4
The industry average for SLP is a lowly median average of P/E 9.8 (It has been P/E 10 all last year).

So, personally, I say to myself: just to be considered plain "average" as a stock then bringing SLP up to the industry average would equate to an SP of £3.11
ie., ( 3.4/9.8 x £1.08 )

THS is undervalued too. And as far as you can look, most hot stocks in SLP's industry appear undervalued too.

Suspecting an error, earlier this year I looked further up the M/Cap to the likes of Rio Tinto, and whilst, yes RIO was on a higher P/E multiple than I'd seen elsewhere, RIO was still a little undervalued in P/E terms. So started examining US stocks, and only then do you see much higher P/E's in general, within the industry.

Conclusion? I don't think SLP or THS will ever reach parity with a "fair" valuation as the market demands that margin of safety as witnessed by the shock fall all these stocks suffered in the summer.

Yes, SLP's SP has risen nicely, annually since 2016/17 and ever since - up to this summer, but seeing SLP lifted to an industry average P/E ratio is unlikely IMO.

Still doesn't prevent the SP from rising pleasingly annually, but I doubt these types of commodity stocks will ever be treated to a "fair" valuation.

Simply Wall Street use a discounted cashflow methodolgy to come up with £6-odd, but several posters who've posted on here can only manage up to £1.40 using DCF methodologies.

Any takers on seeing higher than £6 ? Is that the new record valuation?

" Those months Velo was no fool with, July and August, just decided to take on the mantle of October / November. Thats it thats all. "

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Must admit Stoodio, July & August cannon-balled my cyclical seasonality charts into shipwreck status on the admiralty maps held at HQ :)

That damage may have fecked-up the cyclical probabilities for 12 months forward in SLP now, as running tests against other stocks with "typical/characteristic behaviours" and all is well.

Oct (if it holds as is to the month end) is performing far greater currently than the old original cyclical plans I posted of earlier in the year (having said that, the first half, Jan to June worked perfectly; too perfectly :)

Nov is an old out-performer still on the cards for doing that this year; if it's repaired itself by then. Or if I can ever trust the cyclicals again.

Jan & Feb are the other half of the heart and soul of the SP driving the SP forward for 5 years. So will remain optimistic for Jan next year, and Feb too
(Had Jan down for the 200p target attainment originally).

But the greatest crime I committed during July & August was moving away from my roots (trend following) because SLP had-been-oh-oh- oh-SOoooo-predictable that I didn't look at what price was actually doing, and when too late, I almost cried when I saw the more, longer term predominant trends had already turned 100% bearish whilst I was still yapping on about a blow your socks off August
- because that is what it's always done - for 5 years!

Have had a big catharsis navel-gazing examination of my strategies from scratch since then - and the result is - the trends never failed me at all - not once!
I just ignored them. I failed them!
If I take the knee will they forgive (sniff) and take me back?

I failed myself by ignoring them whilst playing with new TA toys. I don't need to change anything strategy-wise - only my personal discipline to my core principles when examining, interesting new strategy options.

Seriously - can the SP make it 7 blue consecutive days straight out the box tomorrow?

And if so, will that be some new kind of record for SLP, or at the very least equal a prior run of that length somewhere in the last 5 year bull run?

" . . . looking forward to Oct 28th and paying that dividend in . . . "

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So am I, Odys'07 - (4p cash per share :)

- However for the sake of clarity, you won't receive the divi in your account until the 3rd Dec, as the 28th Oct is the XD date only.

And if November turns out as I'm optimistically looking for (not to mention Stoodio's looking for also, in Nov :) then it will be all the more remarkable as the entire month of Nov will be in XD period and therefore under a manufactured 'cosh' until the divi is actually paid out.

Historically inter-month, October can be volatile, in both directions, so not counting my chickens yet, until Nov 1st ;)

- but even so, 6 consecutive blue days of straight-out gains on the trot, makes you wonder how much longer the SP can hold out before a red day sticks it tongue out, at one and all.

“. . . But first test is another 5/6p away, (more on that tomorrow) ”

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And so it’s now tomorrow :) – And a few further caveats to my post yesterday:

The trend definitely meets my preferred breakout set-up’s as both my smaller trends are now bullish, initially the extreme Ultra-Short Minor trend turned bullish (not to be trusted until confirmed by the larger Short term trend).

Which it (Short Term trend) did several days ago. Trouble is the even larger, longer term and predominant trends have been tortured to death since May and unusually for SLP’s history, are mostly bearish.

They too will join the junior trends given enough time of consistent progress by the shorter term trends. Regardless, I usually take action on the Short Term trend – if the predominant longer term trends are already bullish; which they’re not.

Specifically, for me, that 200 day trend is still of great concern until it does get reeled in.

Don’t like to be bullish on anything under the 200 day trend. And that’s fractionally just under 111p.
Before that, I’d like to see a couple of previous significant highs get taken down.

Not one of them, in either SLP or Rhodium has been taken down yet.

In SLP’s case, similar to the current position, the SP failed to rise back above the May ATHigh when it had its chance at the beginning of June, nor later on, in late July, nor in early September either. Each lower high failing to revisit the nearby prior high.

Situations were similar to currently; apparent attempts by the SP to cease pulling back were short lived.

So the first test is the nearest previous swing high of early September. All the SP has to do is hold above that to show it means business, and that prior SP high lies approx @ circa 102/103 area. It’s an imminent test.

The prior swing high was in late July (there were none in August) at the 117 area and so forth, each high a barrier leading all the way back to the ATH back in May. All attempts to date since May, to just rise past the recent highs on each occasion have failed.

All were attempted whilst still in strong down trending trend lines bar the last one (early September) which were similar to now – bullish. Doesn’t get better for conditions to aid an attempt.

Then there’s that 111p, the 200 day trend to savour whilst all the previous highs are dismantled by the newly energised SP. My attention will wander from them once the 200 is in the bag. For me personally – that’s the biggie, game changer.

But how far the SP ultimately travels depends on the market’s re-rating of where the SP value lies whilst the ongoing Chip/Rhi crisis endures.

Won’t detail RHi’s previous swing highs but it too has failed to bag a single prior high since it “appeared” to hit a floor (It peaked below the last high – not good; and has slightly turned down since then).

So should SLP go and achieve that first move it will be notice that SLP is acting independently of RHi’s performance.

Hi Stoodio!

Currently in a motorway service station ready to rejoin and continue after nearly 1& 1/2 weeks oop North (due again end of Oct possibly) but clashes with me launching a new 20 stock portfolio for Nov 1st which is 95% formulated. So I'm busy, busy.

Was intending a small post on Wedensday as I'm back this evening.

Could read all posts in that time, but was unable to post - bar midnight times!

Have a personal target area for the SP that has not been achieved once (nor Rhodium in it's own sphere of events) since May - approx 5/6p away from here, for SLP.

But the true 'Run for Home' move, is taking back ownership of the 200, still rising at just approaching 111p.

Difficult to make progress below the 200 - whilst can't fail to make money once above a rising 200. So that's currently just under 111 for starters.
What's clear this past few days is this 'awakening is all of SLP's work with no help from Rhodium in that time. So nice to see the market appear to realise it's been too harsh with SLP despite Rhodium's summer pullback.

Ultimately 111 is my happy Checkpoint Charlie border to cross over.
But first test is another 5/6p away, (more on that tomorrow) before anything further is possible.

All looking very, very, interesting though :)

Well, that’s a poor close to Sept – and true to character for SLP.

As SLP “always” under-performs in Sept after the results are announced.
(Sept is a Buy On the Rumour: Sell On the News month - always has been).

So, at least that’s unaffected by the chip/Rh crisis.
Except I was expecting more like mid 96-ish close to the month, which was bad enough - so this 91 close to the end of Sept, puts paid to any expectation of a sooner rather than later recovery in the SP. In fact not expecting much better for Oct either. (Although I fully expect Nov to lift spirits a little).

What the hell happened today then? Thought that was supposed to be a good decision in BT’s favour today. What’s gone wrong?

159? You’re kidding me! That’s a terrible, terrible, close.

(Now means more likely that the SP is going to be dragged deeper back into the 150’s tomorrow.

Not even a close on 161 is good tomorrow. That’s just the resting area.
For this to be a 'just a blip', then no less a close than 163 is demanded for tomorrow’s close.
Or anything between 161 and 163 will do – IMO.

Closing less than 161 heralds trouble. In fact tonight’s close almost guarantees a deeper pullback into the 150’s by close tomorrow.

Wasn’t expecting that today.

Opened high this morning and went higher to fractions below 165 first thing! Then for the rest of the day, just lost the plot.
What am I missing with BT today?
159's -That’s not irrelevant ‘noise’ - that’s a significant bear attack.

Can’t see a good outcome tomorrow.

(Still expect Oct to close higher than it opens, but that means just closding on 160 gets it there).

Bear in mind that recording is 25 years old from 1996. Peter Lynch, in his day (and the record stands) he built the most succesful investment fund in the world. He retired after 15 years - but his 15 years performance outshone Buffett every single year back then, (and today).

Invest in what you know is his mantra.

So, you're right-on investing in telecoms. I'm the fish out of water here LOL!

The para that starts:
" . . . 128th order Dynamic Polarization enables one 1.8 Tbps LEOSat to relay . . . "

Reminds me of this speech :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72Pq5zKEi_g
- Only from 11:23 to 13:23

What's a bloke to do when peckish waiting between Big BT company manoeuvres? :

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/exclusive-telecoms-tycoon-drahi-talks-buy-french-satellite-firm-eutelsat-sources-2021-09-29/

He's no longer using his own money, either. They're falling over themselves to finance his deals -
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" Drahi is working with banks on the project and recently made a bid approach for Eutelsat which..."