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( Part 2 of 2 Concludes: )

. . . Similar bullish situations occurred from the 10th August and further back from the 20th July; both periods turned the Ultra-Short term trends to bullish - but both occasions went on to fail.
The Short-term trend (more dependable) did not /never crossed to the bullish upside on either of those occasions (because it was too soon).

The Ultra-Short term trend has now turned fractionally bullish on Friday night. No other trend - just that.
(Some indicators showing signs of rising from their slumber though).

P.P.S
Short-Term trends and Ultra Short-term trends.
I need clearer labels.
Thinking of labelling one of them the Minor Trend to differentiate. Does Minor trend sound a better fit than Ultra-Short term trend? (Ultra Short is the weakest trend, of all the trends I use).

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Just re-reading before posting and realise with this post being longer than I anticipated, that I might appear to be sitting on the fence.

To be clear; I'm in with the sentiments of the header for this thread. Things are looking up. I'm just a bit hesitant on how far "up" is up. But I'm on board with things are looking up :)

(Part 1 of 2)

Hi Stoodio,

Pleasing to see your preference of the low 90's, finally reached.
It's now at Launchpad-One then :)

Days later and it was a slow burner then.
Such has been the consistent damage in this big retrace that I still haven't got a positive cross to the upside by any of the larger more meaningful trends. Usually the Short term trend is quite nippy - but it's not taken by this the slow burner approach - just yet.

Did like the look of the 3 days prior to Friday, but what an iffy trio those days were. From 'promising' I'd mentally upgraded the situation to 'interesting'; but personally, remained non-committal.

First target was a descending 90. With the second (Launchpad-Two) being 97.

However those trend-targets are dropping daily, with the second target as of Friday close now reading 96, which is nice (as just run off some pivot point targets for next Tuesday) - and if Friday's, bullish signal performance is to hold and build then I expect 96-ish/97 to get taken down on Tuesday. If not, doesn't matter, it's back to the slow-burner approach.

Anyway a 92 close took care of that 90 target. So if you stick to your guns for a triple figure 100 "a quid next week" :)
- even better; as all I seek, in order to move forward positively, is a close no less than 96/97 by Tuesday close.

Trends:
Only by Friday close, did I finally see the first credible, but highly-strung, Ultra-Short term trend cross to a bullish reading, but only just. That's quite a flimsy pretext to say the first trend line has turned bullish; I'm always saying, don't place too much emphasis on the fliberty-gibbet Ultra-Short term trend, as it can flip in a heart beat.

But it's current position does come under "well that's interesting."
The real-deal, more significant trend lines are still very wary, and none of them are near turning to the upside yet. (Mathematically imposible in these early days).

PS. I never usually mention 'micro-trends' as it's pushing the envelope to ridiculous levels (scrapping the barrel territory) but they crossed to the bullish upside by close last Wednesday. Hence, from promising to interesting.

To be fully committed I need the Short-Term trend to turn bullish, that would be confirmation - a go-er!
And as said, it's some days away from that yet.

Loose trousers is the phrase I've read to describe the current outlook. If you can accept loose fitting, too-baggy trousers, which fit everyone, then the SP now changing to the bullish upside can be offered up.

Me? Not budging until the fat lady sings and the first significant trend (Short-term trend) crosses to the upside. Been too much persistent SP destruction, for me to change on such early-days bullishness.

Similar bullish situations occurred from the 10th August and further back from the 20th July; both periods turned the Ultra-Short term trends to bullish - but both occasions went on to fail...

( Continues > > > )

Yes, tomorrow Sat :) hopefully.

PS. Forgotten:
Just discovered that I had prepared (late last night) some pivot points for SLP today.

And, I find that the SP didn't do half bad against the targets.

So, I'd like to amend the following from -

" Whatever, it is a happy looking candlestick day, and shows ahem . . . . . promise "

to -

" Whatever, it is a happy looking candlestick day, and shows positive promise. "

" From down 3.65p @164.50p to close up 0.05p @ 168.20p. "
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Hi Nige,

Yes, that's a nice defence, although it was a bearish close to the day, it did show a good attempt by driving the bears back down by close, leaving a long tail below.

Had done some self calculated pivot points for today, but forgot about them, but was disappointed to see the SP come up short for a seat on the neutrality bench. However despite that, a decent fight back by close.

All trends at Intermediate level and below - are all bearish,
however the higher, more important, longer-term trends are still bullish.

So that indicates this is only a (v strong) pullback and ultimately the bull case should prevail, as the bigger, longer term trends dictate the predominant direction of the trend. So, quietly confident, that the bull case will be visible in time.

However, not enough in today's performance to see any evidence that this is the floor, though.
- Day at a time.

" I'll be keen to see where this week ends, and would certainly welcome Velos thoughts on what those lines say :) "

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Hi Stoodio,

Saw your post this morning but could read it only, in passing, as didn't even dare post a simple acknowledgement of "will post later"; as was up until gone after 2:00am last night, and the day previous, and most nights last week too, unless it was an early night at only gone 1:00am - mostly reviewing stuff such as SLP.

No rabbits out of the hat I'm afraid, only the obvious - what you see on screen
- and that is bearish sentiment aplenty, apart from today.

- Had to be a bullish day today, otherwise I would have been surprised, had it not, because:

The odds of 7 red bearish days in a row would have been unprecedented for SLP.
As it was, Monday did set a new record with 6 days straight-out bearish. Conditions were oversold, so almost inevitable a bullish performance uptick of some sort was due from today. How many times can you flip a coin to land on tails consecutively? Probability has to show its face at some point.

So, will today continue the bullish performance? Not a lot of evidence yet showing any obvious indication of turning away from the dark side. A continuation of these small victories is necessary before other indications turn sunny side up.

Whatever, it is a happy looking candlestick day, and shows ahem . . . . . promise.
Can't push it further than that at the moment. Might be a slow burner and take a couple of days before igniting. Need another, strong, bullish day.

What does rule over the SP at the moment - with an iron hand - is bearish sentiment with all meaningful trends looking very angry, very violent and very red-faced. The evidence has yet to turn to the upside.

Needed a more assertive turnaround today to even suggest a breakout was forming. As ever, more evidence needed; ie., more positive days.

One thing that irks, is that for any confidence to return, is for the SP to make short work of recommencing living on the topside of the 200 day trend, which currently resides at over 107, and is still rising (testament to the SP's former sterling performance that it's still rising - but also makes a currently very weak SP work even harder).

Ergo: No top side of the SP living above the 200 - and no upside to the SP. Sentiment rules.

It will change. Guesswork until more days show their hand. Uphill battle.

" My main holding is with HL "
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It was HL I was using.

Just tried some dummy trades with my broker and no matter how I adjusted the quantities the shutters came down on any selling orders, with a message explaining unable to provide a quote.

Buying orders howevet, were quoted instantly.

So the MM's are unhappy to receive sell orders but will give you all you ask for, if placing a buy order quote.

" Noting says the SP will succumb "
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Tsk! Written on the fly. Should have read:

Nothing says the SP will succumb . . .

Of course, like others, I don't know where the bottom of this SP pullback will occur; I don't have to; have long decided to just follow the trend - and let it concern itself with the floore, but I am concerned that the major 200 day average trendline is almost barely 10p away, panting, gasping for breath, just below this price.

The 200 is a major level for many international institutions. Is that the target? I need to top-up, so no rush to add myself, just yet.

But I did do a couple of posts, months and months ago aka the SP is running through the Mississippi swamps from the jailhouse bloodhounds hunting the SP, The SP had been under the thumb of the mighty 200 for 5 years until November where the SP joined in a jailhouse breakout and had legged-it jumping on a Triumph Bonneville motorbike over the barnbed wire fence and has never been tracked down since. (There are some backroads in the swamps).

I thought there'd be a meet-up at some point, and was using that expectation as a potential buying point back then - but surprisingly it never came. The gap just widened and the SP joined the ranks of successful stocks who live life above the 200 trend.

The closest the SP came to revisiting the 200 was back in Feb of this year barely 6p or so away - and the SP legged it again (Drahi striking?)

Right now, is the closest to the 200 blood hounds I've seen it get to the SP, in that time; now just barely over 10p below the current price.

If the SP should go for a clandestine visit to shake hands with the mighty 200, it's my belief that would be as good as any guess at the floor, and I would be looking to add at that point. It's rising all the time, so don't fixate on a "price".

But will the SP do as it did back in February, and pull off a mighty swerve, before meeting up, leaving the 200 shaking its fist in the air in frustration?

Barely 10p away. Noting says the SP will succumb and keep pulling back until it falls below (temporarily IMO) the 200.

But it's quite common for successful stocks to have a meet up (reversion to the mean) with the 200 every year or so on their upward journey.

... But has since slipped back to 84

Just jumped up to 86.30p. Not so easy to get that 6 day record without a fight

Some indication of the price rising from the worst of this morning's depths.

Broader UK, Germany, markets bullish this morning, as they were indicating overnight in the futures. US too, overnight bullish and currently futures indicating a bullish continuation from Friday, when they open this afternoon.

Unfortunately the PGM market is on its own path from those.

Should today close in the red, then that would create a new record as the single longest run of consecutive red bearish days at 6 trading days straight-out in a row, right back to the beginning of this super cycle at the beginning of 2016. Didn't check back further. Too many numerous occasions of similar downtrend in SLP only maxing out at 5 days, before a blue day intervened. So wouldn't be too quick to rule out a blue close today just yet.

If the evacuation of Afghanistan had a stockmarket SP it would be the current SLP performance from Mid May to present.

My favourite two quotes today, One on buying, and one on selling:

============

Bangrak on buying @ "...Why not wait until there is a definite rise here,.."

- IMO that's the only safe way to buy if one can control greed.

'

&

'

NicetoMichuo @ "..and a bunch of medium/long term holders selling down say 15% or 25% of holdings to bank... "

- What I was contemplating further up the price range, but spent my time contemplating instead.

Make that three!

Batterseafish @ "hence studies show that investors without access to news do better."

- That reminds me of the Fidelty (of Canada) who did a survey of their clients accounts to see if better performance is consistent amongst certain investing choices. There was.

Fidelity discovered that their top performers untouched accounts, had all been deceased for years.

I am becoming distinctly uneasy about the gathering strength of the bearish lower time frame trends

1)
First it started with the Ultra short term trend turning bearish; this trend is almost irrelevant it's v short and very flip-floppy.

2)
Didn't take notice when next up, the Short Term trend turned bearish, as SLP has a habit of making them earn their name by making their stay - short term only, before the bull would come out the gate, as per usual.

3)
However, in the ensuing weeks, the bearish infection then spread upwards again, to the Intermediate Term trend - and held, and has gotten stronger. That was unusual for a hit-it-out-of-the-park performing SP, that SLP has been since 2016, relentlessly so.

And yet again, as one month changed to the next, the Intermediate infection spread its bearishness up to the next level. Now it was really difficult to find similar occasions to that trend turning bearish in the same time frame back to 2016.

4) But what alarmed me was next - the Medium term trend turning bearish. That should never happen, given SLP's prior performance, but this is intra the third month, going on for a quarter of a year of consistent retracing in the SP. I can find only one example of similar to what's happening now, back only in the spring to summer of 2017.

5)
The 200 Day trend is the first of the longer term trends - and the most forensic. Used by many an institution internationally as a bellwether marker.
The SP is currently under the 200 day trend. My expectation was and is, that it should only be temporary and not that the SP sits too deeply below it. It's the first of 3 long term trends, yet the SP sits firmly below it. It's a trend that is still bullishly increasing slowly, So that's a plus. But only if the SP makes a move to join in, and start living above it, and soon.

7) The Long Term weekly trend and the Ultra Long Term monthly trend are resolutely bullish as mentioned in Stoodio's post. But if this retracement continues to become greater than this, almost 3 months of straight retracing of the SP, might a curling up at the edges of the other longer term trends come into view? Both are clean and strongly bullish, it must be said.

All in all, the retrace from June to now moving into late August has been harsher than expected, and trends are bearish right up to the medium term trend - all out bearish. That's what's unfamiliar in this landscape. And it's rattled me. A quick visit to the 200 day trend was on the cards, yes, but with the emphasise on quick.

It can still be viewed in hindsight as quick, if the SP can show some resilience before August is out. That's if you believe the current mess will be sorted in the coming months, but some of the industry's indirect issues sound like they'll take far, far, longer than mere months to rectify.

Take any longer, and any bounce from the lows is likely to be modest. But I'd take it, at least to see an effort of some recovery!

Tonight's SP close, is near to the edge of commencing into the Oversold territory.

Even if this downtrend continues, eventually exiting Oversold usually entails a rally.
Sometimes, at the bottom of a long downtrend it can often signal a bullish breakout!

Oversolds in SLP are more uncommon than overboughts. However the last oversold was v recently in mid-July - and it did herald a breakout but was stopped dead in its tracks when several days later the slightly disappointing Q4 update was published and the SP resumed its downtrend.

So potential, but IMO the current bearish sentiment is too strong at the moment, for any rally to be anything more than temporary.

" oh dont we love a falling sp to bring out all dheads onto the board,"
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Don't forget to include the delusional conspiracy dhead at 9:57am this morning, with this gem:

" volume is pretty much average on the day so prob just an organised walk down,

================

Just an organised walkdown?
- Really?

Well now we know the real reason; thanks for the enlightenment.

Including today, that'll be 5 straight days of the SP closing in the red.

That's the most falls consecutively, since the big uptrend began in 2016, the maximum has been 5 in a row.

I'd guess therefore that Monday might take a breather and finish in the blue?
If not it would set a new, unenviable bearish record for that period.

" Velo you talked about key levels for S&P, what are you looking at? "

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Short term, wary of an intial 4373, the likely starting point for a further sustained pullback.
-
Hi Lucky/L,
Pretty sure I refrained from mentioning the SPX specifically.
You're right; Lucky guess on your part?
- Or did I mention it somewhere in passing? :)

Slightly improved performance than the futures were suggesting now US markets are open. If it continues see if reflects here in remaining hours of this afternoon.