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ALL US futures are down suggesting a bearish day when they open this afternoon. (FTSE down too).

A lot of previously well performing stocks taking a dip today.

- Temporary fears of Afghanistan now becoming a disruptive haven for terrorist organisations??

PPS:

Only just taking in the significance of the header I posted under ie., secondary placing complete.

Probably the real reason (or additional reason) for the pullback in the SP.

Over the years I was holding PHNX, there was always a placing going on. never recall them ever stopping LOL!

- AND there was always a great concern by all holders to take up our entitlement, lest we lose out. However, when the SP was ameliorated downwards after the issue was complete.

- In my time holding this stock it became obvious that the SP always retreated back to the low issue price; often a little further below it!
- thus meaning you didn't have to be so concerned about not acquiring your full entitlement.

I swore back then, that on any new occasions such issues were made, I'd sell up, and buy back dirt cheap, when eventually the price reflected the added shares at a lower placement price - they always did.

But when push came to shove, I never carried out my threat.

But if there has been a placement at an advantageous price to the prevailing market price, then the placing is up there in the line-up, with the other culprits in the frame, as the reason/s for the pullback.

STOP PRESS:

Took the RNS on this site as read in good faith, but mistook their operating profit (£half a billion area) for net profit.

When I checked properly just now, there is no net profit for H1 - PHNX has turned in a similar amount - but as a loss. Yikes! A loss!

Not seen a loss in the H1 period, in many a year.
I now think the pullback in the SP is not for any reasons stated in my initial post below, but because of the H1 loss.

Had to Google to confirm a loss in case it was me.
Here's a link stating that net profit loss -

https://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4035715/phoenix-%E2%80%98-track%E2%80%99-strong-end-result

I'm actually a bit taken aback - all media analysis sounds positive - the RNS is positive.

Can only read the first para and the headline as it looks like behind a paywall. It does though sound very positive, forecasting a full-year net profit to please all.

Didn't see any posts on here mentioning a net profit loss, so you can imagine my lack of confidence in casually discovering H1 has actually produced a net loss at H1 (Operating profit in the RNS showing a profit was what confused me at first).

Anyway, despite that shock loss, all media reports are very bullish (including that link above) and all forecast a good result by year end.
- Geez! I hate trying to interpret finance stocks: Hard as hell to see the trees.

Now rescind posting my thoughts on the SP pullback based on the sight of "good results".

Will let this SP downtrend play itself out first by trend following the SP instead, so no SP forecasts from me.
When it ceases pulling back and commences rising, I'm hoping Sept 3rd will be long enough to sort out the SP, but if not will let the trends sort it out for me.

Just popping in to look-see one of my holdings I once held from way back in the day (sold up just before the 2020 March crash got going propa @ just under, near £7) as PHNX has been mentioned as a 'pick' by the odd guru and billionaire types etc in interviews in recent weeks.

Surprised to see the SP dive on good results.

Is it a case of buy on the rumour and sell on the results?
(Only long-termers on here can confirm if the SP has a tendency to pullback after results are announced)

- And if not that, I noticed the divi mention in the results. Checked and yes, holders get a divi paid to them pronto, on Sept 3rd.
Checked again and the declaration date is given as 11th August so defo from the results day: so that's quick, on the day you get the annual results you also get a quick divi payment within weeks :)

So, unless there's something in the media highlighting the pullback is due to some other influence I'm going with a fear of what happens to the SP on XD day (next Thursday, the 19th) as the SP topped out of a nice emerging uptrend the day before the results and the first 5 minutes opening on the 11th results day
- after that first 5 minutes the SP was sold off, peaking and troughing but generally dropping away, all day.

Which means whatever the SP closes on, by close of Weds the 18th next week, you'll wake up Thursday morning to at least 25p lopped off the SP instantly that morning.

So should the SP close Wed night similar to what the SP is this weekend, then from Thursday onwards the SP can be bought for somewhere in the 630's for those who don't mind foregoing the divi, the principle reason for investing here in the first place.

But that's assuming the price falls no further. But from the past couple of days and Friday's close, the SP looks in no mood to cease pulling back next week.

So only of interest to those looking to buy in. In fact looking at the sentiment of the SP, I'd say lucky to only drop as low as 630's - unless it drops no further on Monday, and holds this area into Weds close.

Mind you, it's closer to the oversold border than the other, so should that occur, the cavalry wouldn't be far off arriving, but I'll go for the cavalry arriving on Sept 3rd - divi payment day.

In between next Thursday and the termination of XD period on Sept 3rd, and the SP pulls back low enough, I might be tempted to re-buy an old acquaintance:)

"So my initial view that once he stopped buying there were no big buyers left to replace him doesn't hold water as the downtrend had already preceeded his announcement. "
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- Drahi announced his 12% stake on June 10th. So upon review, only a short time before the retrace got underway.

So was that the catalyst - Drahi ceasing buying?

" ... as seen the SP has in a committed downtrend."
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Damned auto correct again!
- If not clear should have been:

.. has seen the SP in a committed downtrend.

... as seen the SP has in a committed downtrend.

Was mostly tied up on other duties during the majority of this downtrend. It's been quite strong (although I feel it's about to terminate and confirm a change from bearish direction particularly if a nice close on 180 or higher on Monday.

Before it ends and becomes history, it's worth understanding why such a strong downtrend has held so long (it's more than matched the big retrace in January of this year).

I don't know why. Does anyone feel they have a handle on why this big retrace occurred?

The annual results were released in mid May and the Q1 results whilst the downtrend was already evident. Drahi confessed it was him all along that was behind the biggest breakout in BT since 2016 that commenced in Nov 2020, but he informed all of that, again whilst the downtrend was already underway.

So my initial view that once he stopped buying there were no big buyers left to replace him doesn't hold water as the downtrend had already preceeded his announcement.

Whatever, a good close on Monday could prove the next trend to crossing to the upside and that would give 2 new trend lines returning to a bullish outlook, but first 180's has to come into play on Monday for the second trend (short term trend) to turn bullish.

So, is it evident yet why this big downtrend occurred? It was a little overbought in late June, but BT has had worse with less effect than this downtrend.

Right, pleased as I am with tonight's 104 close - (a 105 close would have been more suited to the tone of my last post, in tonight's calcs) it still leaves things a bit tight.

However, still going for a bullish performance on Monday.
This is all IMO though anyway (but I do take it seriously).

1)
First, what I think is likely to be the minimum acceptable close on Monday to remain bullish, is a close on 105
(Yes, I know a big fight over only 1p up, that's the way it goes sometimes).
105 would keep me smiling into Tuesday.
(A terrific day would be a close on no less than 106 :)

2)
If the SP is tiring, then no harm done if it sits this one out on Monday at a 103 close.

3)
However, what IS now harnful & seriously dangerous territory in which the SP must NOT close on Monday - is 102.
102 on Monday would now signify a turn back to bearishness.

------------------

Should 106 appear intraday on Monday, and I'm about, then I have the likely next level after that as a target. But unlikely at this juncture, so will only mention it as a probability if the SP first goes sailing past 105 and then goes hunting for 106.

105? Didn't think the odds would be so low as to turn up such small travels on Monday, but there it is.

105 to close as a minimum for maintaining the bull case. Maybe 106 tops, but no promises.

And should the worst happen then that nightmare is quite close too (see above).

So, it's Stalingrad all over again on Monday - hand to hand combat for small gains, to stay bullish.

I'm removing the "v early" from my older assertion that the 200 looks like being taken down v early next week to now read:

- the 200 looks like being taken down next week.

--------------

All in all, I'm expecting a positive outcome on Monday, so gimme 105
- 106 if you have the muscle :)

A bearish outcome is just not on the agenda.

(All IMO)

Yep it's here; time to put your 180's caps back on. First minimum acceptable close for Monday will be: 180 itself.

Entirely possible it may close higher than that; not much only between 181 to 184 max (IMO) but currently that's the first step - 180 !

If the SP wants to take a breather and say not to day, then closing on no less than 178 is acceptable - for Monday only.

And if I've got this all wrong then trouble is only 1p away at an unacceptable (for Monday) 177 close.

104 it is! Holy Moley - skin of the teeth job in after-hours trading!

Nicely in the vicinity to calc some nice expectations for Monday. Post those later; got a few others to do as well.

What I didn't include in the initial post was that even if the SP closed on 102, that wouldn't be too bad as it would only represent indecision (IMO) - not a turn towards bearish performance next. Could go either way on Monday if it closed on 102. So it would have been a case of live to fight another day.

So, wasn't "too" perturbed when 102 was in play for a large part of the day. Wasn't keen on 102, but it was tolerable.

However, earlier I'd seen 101.5 for portions of the day. That did alarm me. That was NOT live to fight another day!

Only a half'penny, but spoke volumes of now leaning distinctly with bearish overtones for Monday. only a half'penny - but it was enough to probably damage Monday - if it closed on it (IMO)

Eventually that passed, and I reconciled myself to a 103 close. Okay, but just skimming underneath the way-in.

So delighted to see a 104 close.

Will[ post some expectations for Monday - my immediate hope is for a decisive and conclusive take-down of the 200 day trend. That's the top job next week, and no mistake - it is!

It's time is up, if it's to behave as all the other occasions have.

So line up on the quayside next week ready to wave it goodbye, shouting:
See you in a year's time, maybe.

Closing above 106/107 can't come quick enough, then major concerns are lightened considerably.

Don't expect the SP to race back to where it was before all this downtrend began, will be a bit of that Overhead Resistance to encounter as key prices are met with upset holders who just want their money back after a bad fright. It'll happen all the way up to the 140's. So not expecting the SP to race away.

It can if it wants, delighted if it does, but if it did, it would put into doubt the escape - and that of falling back under the 200 trend, as the whole thing would start again with Rhodium where it currently resides.

Succesful stocks live above the 200 for the majority of time - not below it. Luna's APPL 200 encounters, occurred every couple of years in the recent decade.

SLP's is in the yearly category; more or less.

Things can't go back to where they once were, in mere weeks. Rhodium isn't likely to. So a slower haul back up the scale, but that should only last a reasonably short while
- then it's anybody's guess after that :)

- Back later with some potential Monday expectations.

Back later with some Monday intraday expectation prices.

Was going to add that a late final surge took the SP up to just over 178 - but this site was showing less. LSExchange was the same as here, but acknowledging 178 had been the last price, but now was not the close.

It remained like that until gone 5pm. So gave up on it and assumed my data that goes on a round trip from London to the US then gets shunted back into my computer must have been wrong.

However, just returned after a cuppa and now it's settled - it is a 178 close after all!

That massive last minute surge is indicative I think for further positive progress next week.

Later on, will post some Monday expectations - and I can tell by the 178 close that surely 180's must come up in the calcs for a visit on Monday. Will see later.

This consensus update was the last concern removed. No missing Q1 net profit. It's all there.

Optimistic for Monday :)

Up to mid day SP progress was fine, steady if somewhat underwhelming.

Reviewing the intaday 5 minute action, from an iffy start, it recovered nicely from 9:00am and bullishly recovered by noon.

But from noon to approx 2pm the SP lost interest and wilted from then 2pm, until about 2:30pm, It was as if the market was digesting the update before deciding on any further action.

Maybe that's why the update was released in their lunch hour's - to wrong-foot them?

Whatever, there was a clear demarcation zone at just after 2:30pm where the market decided - and from then until 4pm dropped promtly and v fast.

4pm -ish coincided with my post, which coincidentally chimed with a turnaround at approx 4:05pm and the SP has steadily been clawing its way back since.

Don't know how it will close in the few remaining minutes, but will draw up some calcs (guesses) for Monday, later on.

Yes, I saw it at 3pm. Market reaction a bit muted; I'm delighted the missing Q1 nety profit is showing up by the year end though :)

Had trouble getting current posts seen on this site; keep disappearing then reappearing later, so hope this post one gets through.

The Aug 13th (Friday 13th? . . . Din din din) analysts consensus update for the initial Q2 and subsequent full trading years is out this afternoon.

NET PROFIT:
My main interest is seeing what they will make of the missing Q1 net profit - well it hasn't affected the full year forecasts at all!

Just don't understand why they can't fully explain why they can add it back in by the year-end but go:
Sshhh we've got to pretend and show there is none left, for tax accounting purposes.

Anyway crisis over. Only £2m net profit showing for Q1 but it's all added back in by the year end with £1.648bn showing some near £10m HIGHER than that previously. (Thought the media was reacting rather calmly to actual Q1 net profit results).

Next year's net profit increases slightly too, to £1.809bn And year 3 (2023/'24) net profit remains lower than year 2 at £1.789bn but that is a reasonable increase on the last update anyway.

So net profit increases this year against last year's floor of £1.4bn net profit, but in all 3 years there's an undesirable dip in year 3.
In other words net profit goes up this year and next, but takes a dive in year 3.

REVENUE:
How times change - it was always revenue that was disappointingly V-shaped, but now it's not - it's net profit that's (slightly) cliff-shaped now in year 3.

Be that as it may, Revenue is showing as all its years reduced across the board compared to the previous update, but - but- at least showing a nice 1-2-3 steady increase with each year larger than the previous year. Nice!

However, all 3 years for revenue have been reduced to that previously.

BT still haven't got a handle on falling revenue, but nonetheless the good news is that all years that follow on from each other - do increase higher than the preceding year. So that's in the right direction, despite the revenue volume being reduced by the analysts across all 3 years.

On the other hand, all years in net profit have been increased, but still there's a falling off in the year 3 when it's compared to year 2.

- Hope that all makes sense. Here it is:

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/btgroup-consensus-13-aug-21.pdf

Thanks Luna, for the considered and sound thoughts/responses.

PS.

". . . any significant short term gains may well place the company in overvalued territory . . ."

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Good point.

Had noticed the outright proliferation of Overbought conditions aplenty
- and Oversolds too, further back (none recently since summer of last year).

They're so plentiful, that not always easy to determine which can be acted upon and which can be ignored.

It's usual for longer term uptrending stocks to dominate with overbought conditions with oversolds being far and few inbetween - (and vice versa)
- but there's a proliferation of both on this stock..

Can only conclude strong sentiment rules, swaying from one end of the decision scale to the other - not expecting that to change until repeatable, reliable revenue/profits appear - or interest wanes.

Hi Nonegs,

In situations like this, all one can do is keep a close measurement on sentiment as reliable fundamentals are thin on the ground at this stage here, anyway
- as shown by the SP doubling up on your calcs - after selling-up.

22 is coming through quite hard as the floor, in fact the recent performance is firming up into a flat base - which have a habit of exiting that condition one way only - a breakout to the upside!

However, some readings still labelling ANIC as currently bearish; hmmm.

Trying to let the trends inform me, but by the time they do, the SP could move significantly. Using the cheeky chancer's methodologies, I'm also seeing 19 as a potential visit should things turn bearish.

Going to set a computer buy limit order for 19.51 just in case, and leave it until it expires - or triggers :)
- but seriously tempted with a small 22 initial tranche, which would leave several future bites at the cherry, a small tranche at a time.

Thanks for expanding further on AAPL Luna - I do enjoy reading success stories.

I just wonder if you ever 'job backwards' had you/were you, able to leave your investment to compound and run intact to the current day, as you truly would have achieved well over a triple bagger performance by today. No regrets?

103 close? Yes or no? yes confusion reigns here too.

My US based data subscription is going with 102 close (superb close in its own right).
But the London Stock Exchange has the last word and it's a 103 close! Official!
Done a couple of calcs for a rough and ready guide for tomorrow and changing from this site's hi's lo's & close to my data's, gives very similar intraday-only figures for Friday, anyway.

First today, whatever your opinion, it has indeed closed well, so kudos to both Stoodio's instinct and Nimrod's data for drawing the initial, early correct conclusions.

I could just as easily stick my neck out and call this summer downtrend over, but the SP is still under the burden of sitting below the mighty 200 trend line.

The first (and fastest trend line) did capitulate this week from bearish to the bullish upside (but it's the next trend line up from that, that controls me short term - it's looking sprightly; but not yet bullish)

I wouldn't want to stick my neck out and say the SP will break past the 200 tomorrow, but I'm expecting as a minimum to get whisper close to it; and perhaps hop skip and jump over it v early next week. But we'll see tomorrow what's what, first.

I make the 200 at just fractions below 107. Most others would agree it's much higher - but as explained on other occasions, my figures ameliorate rights issues/dividends/splits et al, and smooths out XD gap-downs - the lot. So as long as the pure data-ists and I, don't jump to differing data, all can project when it's safe to breathe fully again in their own views.

For tomorrow as a minimum only, I'd be happy with a 104/105 close as a first base. That would be extremely positive. Not ruling out the SP storming the barricades of the high 106/ or 107 200 barrier - that would be terribly exciting if it did anyway. (It is showing as a possibility; but after thatJuly)
And all readings are for the SP to run with the ball tomorrow, anyway.

Whatever, a true in your face, breakout IS underway IMO.

- And the odds of August closing less than it opened the month, were not only v low to begin with, but are dwindling fast. (The opposite in fact: 80% probability of closing up for August).

Besides it's been such a disappointing low, unimpressive start to August, it should be akin to falling off a log for the SP to close the month higher.

- Not budging from my perception that only as far as the 120's area is achievable by the close of August, but more than willing to be comprehensively and utterly proved incorrect in that assertion - Stoodio??? :) :)

Whatever August closes at, it's not going to be enough to put the remaining months of the year back on track to my original projections from way back, in my personal experimental strategy; but the gains will be worthwhile regardless - IMO.

Expecting another good day tomorrow :)

On other jobs now Mr Woo so will post later. Had difficulty tracking down his blogs and podcasts as ii site has been changing recently. Found one blog just need the other to make the comparison point. Laters :)

I've developed the opinion that Crozier performs exceptionally well when paired with a close confidante exec of similar talent. At ITV, he turned it round with the pairing of Archie Norman, it was always the two mentioned in press report updates.

With his quiet outward demeanour dislike of the limelight and refusal to "play to the gallery" should he hit it off with Jansen as they form a one/two relationship it leaves Jansen the chance to shine like he never had with the previous chairman.

I'll now make a long term prediction.

If for whatever reason Jansen took up an offer he couldn't refuse and moved on elsewhere, then there is no one on the board other than Crozier (when he arrives) who would be the stand out favourite choice to run BT as CEO. The other candidates would be dead in the water by comparison.

However when his mate Archie Norman left Crozier wasn't long in moving on himself. With less talented CEO's etc., replacing Crozier and Norman Itv fell into a state of disrepair from @which has never fully recovered. So as posted earlier a wary eye kept out should Crozier leave of his own choice in the future. His leaving a company has not always been a good omen fort that company's future.