Member Info for Velo

(Concludes page 2 of 2 )

. . . I have every confidence the SP will close the month (July) higher than it opened, leading to THE bullish highlight of the year:
- August!

WHAT VIEWS HAVE YOU FORMED FOR TOMORROW, THURSDAY 23rd?

- Without a shadow of a doubt another great day!

WHAT ANOTHER 9% GAIN?

- Well there's three options. Only one of them will prevail. I favour the 2nd option below.

If bullish holders are convinced of another replication of Tuesday, then there's plenty of support for them. If their view holds on the day, then do not be surprised if the SP closes in the region of anywhere between 117 and 128 with the emphasis on closer to 128 than 117 for a complete replication of Tuesday's performance.

HOW LIKELY IS THAT?

- I'm a big believer in a bit of a more measured continuance after such an Herculean performance, so I personally won't be surprised to see a close in the 113 region.

If you're just plain wrong, what's the lowest outcome you think might happen?

- There's always the chance the SP goes for a rest-up before continuance/consolidation, so closing 2p lower than today at 106 still won't effect the new bull trend.

LOWER? SURELY THAT WOULD BE A DISASTER?

- No, not at all. It would have nil effect on the new bull trend. It's not often a new trend can close lower than the previous day and still be considered in a strong uptrend but that's exactly the case here. 106 would cause no damage, and receive no complaints from me if it did so.

WHAT WOULD UPSET YOU?

- If it closed on 105 or lower, anywhere from 105 down to 102 would be an utter and complete disaster and all I've proposed above would instantly turn to dust
- it would be failed break out.

OH COME ON, A 102 CLOSE WOULD STILL HAVE BEEN GREETED WITH A CHEER TODAY, SURELY?

- Today yes, absolutely, but tomorrow after that performance up to intraday 110? No it would be an absolute disaster! Game over.

HOW LIKELY DO YOU THINK THAT MIGHT BE?

- Zero to negligibly slim :) :)

SO FINAL WORD, WHAT ARE YOU HOPING FOR TOMORROW?

- A close in the 113 area suits me fine, a steady as she goes performance.

- But should the 117 to 128 range prevail on the day, I'm more than happy to apologise :)

- Whatever tomorrow brings, I'm uber-confident that it will be another stonking bullish performance! It's game on for the SLP bulls!

(Page 1 of 2)

A preamble before this post gets underway.

This post is at the request of Markinvestor so I don't recommend it for those unable stomach pivot points/charts et al.

Although I am more than happy to remove all/most references within what follows as that is my preferred style anyway, but left unchecked, it creeps back into my posting vocabulary (one site regularly complained en masse that they couldn't understand a single thing I said, not a thing! Despite them being happy with SP projections transpiring as posted, which they liked).

So I do appreciate that pure fundamentalists bristle at overly laden tech talk.
So - pre-warned is pre-armed :)

- Onwards!

==================

Hi Markinvestor!

Making time for this post as today Wed IS A GAME-CHANGER! (But you know that already :) For speed I'll write it up as a question and answer session.

WHY WAS THE CLOSE ON TUESDAY SO SIGNIFICANT?

- Because the day closed with such very strong bullish sentiment, showing that the day's price action resembled a hammer (in Japanese candlestick talk).

That's an enormously powerful bullish sign and a slam dunk that the next day would soar as it showed that bullish sentiment was running wild with the Pamplona bulls :)

I was cautious in my post in relating it's power as they can fail as a false positive when the whole action takes place below the major 200 day trend line.
On this occasion it didn't matter - the force of the power was strong. Seriously strong.

An, You're-only-supposed-to-blow-the-bl@@dy-doors-off, type of strong!

The recent bear trend over the last few months is as today officially stone cold dead. It's run with the bulls time! Anyone waiting for a revisit to the 90's is wasting their time. Repeat: All bear trends are dead in the water.

I have every confidence the SP will close the month higher than it opened, leading to the highlight of the year
- August!

WHAT VIEWS HAVE YOU FORMED FOR TOMORROW, THURSDAY 23rd?

( Continues ) > > >

Thanks MarkIvestor & JWSM (ie., travel wishes)

--------

Will work my way back to you JWSM in reply to your post when I get back to base.

Markinvestor - will send a post as you requested ( tonight: working on it now ) as previously was tied up elsewhere to respond to your previous requests, so I can put that right with the momentous and unarguable game changer day today Wednesday, in the SP performance, literally stunning; more later :)

My immediate game plan is to get my act together in readiness for travelling up north. Will be that busy for the next week or so won't even have time to read next week's Q4 until v late in the evenings.

Scoville - Chill and have some fun. You need it. You sound weighed down by the weight of the world.

JWSM. Refrain from fighting the same battle over again when it's already been won. Pointless wasting time trying to be right over split hairs when the name of the game is to make money - not be right.

When you say: " That's how I see it. But anything can happen" it just shows you're chicken chit scared to be wrong. That sentence from you is just emphasising that you're talking hypothetical hogwash because you've just disowned every single word. That's 2 minutes we'll never get back again.

No wonder fundamentalists despise chartists and TA adherents. But they don't hate them as much as I do. I ride alone and you TA/chartist nonsense brigade make me yawn. But anything can happen - Geezaloo! LOL! What a laugh. If you propose a theory feckin well own it! Don't make excuses in case you're wrong. You've just flushed your own theory down the toilet.

Scoville - Ahhh shaadup!

She's been told to chill out but takes no notice. Go and dry your ears. Your still wet behind them.

Are you a granny or something?

'fraid not Quiggers. Tweezers have to be dead level. That would be great if was a pair of tweezers, but good guess nonetheless. You're on the right track.

Clue: The bears got chased back down leaving the body of the SP way up high :)

Ooh just saying that . . The bears got chased back down - music to my ears :)

Well, what a smashing close to the day.

Anyone, of any discipline, can you see against a back-drop of today's price action, what I'm pleased about today? Extended after hours auctions now complete so just check again. . . as things can turn upside down in after hours trading.
But no - it's holding together. Yay :)

Kudos points for anyone who can identify what it is in today's SP close that I'm seeing?

I'm not saying it's the floor.
I'm not saying the floor is in.
I'm not calling it in.
:)

I'm saying, very quietly, hush, hush, whisper, whisper, that the first single brick only, in the floor MIGHT, repeat might, be in the process. Many more bricks needed as the floor is yet to be laid.

Besides, the SP is still below the mighty 200 avg, so Alice in Wonderland looking glass, but I'm now actively looking for reasonably further decent signals to slowly develop. Not waiting - but looking expectantly :)

Take everything with a pinch of salt whilst in a major downtrend, doubly so when that downtrend is below the 200 avg. But I'm more than hopeful tonight.

Not pushing fate or karma any further than that; as possible it's a false positive only, hopeful for further positive signals, before calling the floor is under construction. Too early, based on all previous sub-200 avg visitations, so patience required. More day's similar to today's please :)

" I think that charts are completely worthless for predicting the future performance of a share. "
----

Fine by me. I don't predict or forecast. I use projections. I study fundamentals and several other methods of investing. If you dislike any of those why spit it out as if the other person will be offended? Fine. You like cheese but dislike onions. So what? Get over it. If you wish to remain Luddite-like and not use your computer for further research; your choice. Why brandish it as virtue?

=========

" Your own predictions, from earlier this month, have (so far at least) been completely wrong. "
----
- Ease up girl, your hem's showing. It's the close at the END of every month! Not intra-month.
So keen are you to wish misfortune upon others you have jumped the condemned man's execution date - burst into his cell - and declared:

- Surprise! We're executing you today, intra-month instead.

What? I thought I had time for prayers and make peace with my god, as it says here: the end of the month.

- Neah, wife wants to go shopping so hurry up and get out there on the gallows
- you can feck the end of the month because I already can prophesise the future today on Tuesday 20th July. I can predict how the SP will progress now - it's going to keep staying down you fool. Hah! Wonderful gift of prophesy I was given at birth. That'll teach you - what's my name now?

- ****mandou? ? ?

- Right! Feck it! GG-UU-AA-RR-DD!!! Get this fecker out there right now. I will not be disobeyed!

---

" - If you're wrong, you lose credibility.
Also, you're opening yourself up to public ridicule and 'told you so' retorts for the rest of time.
- If you're right, it doesn't actually prove anything - i.e. it's a coincidence. "
----

Geezalou! Who the feck cares? You obviously OBSESS how to manipulate others to form opinions about you . It matters to you.

If only you knew: You mistake me for someone who gives a feck. I post my opinions for fun. Quite happy to stick my neck out.
But you certainly want me to bite my nails to the quick worrying about what others might think of me, but then highly strung gays are like that, aren't you?

And if you're not gay (not a problem if you are anyway - seriously) then your posts suggest by all the hysterical girly wailings over volume and followed up with virtual crying of:
Why won't you all allow me say it's the riots! Wah! Wah! Wah!
- That perhaps you may be undergoing gender change surgery.

What are you anyway, male or female?
It's genuinely hard to tell if you're in mid-gender change. I'm male by the way :)

Blimey, too many posts with references to myself; see how many I can reply to, in as short a space as possible:

Thank you Rojen3 & MarkInvestor (last night) for your words of encouragement. And also, any others I've overlooked in this heat wave, many thanks. Appreciated :)
---------------------------

Today:

Lucky L @
" I assume you mean dropped just 10% from .......?
I am looking at two occasion when price crossed 200ma, mid March 2020 drop of 38% from moment it crossed and begin of July 2020 drop of 16% ....
I am looking at an upward long term trend line, with support at 85p right now.
I am looking at RSI which never been so oversold since 2019. "
----

1)
10% drop (approx) yes, from the first breakdown of the SP right through the 200 avg completely. My platform and live data is not on the same scale as most others. I can tell by most citing higher values for the 200. That's because the data and platform I subscribe too, eliminates gap-downs on XD days etc and ameliorates them to reflect a truer, smoother average. Mine is always different so 10% drop from the 200 avg I SEE - Not what the average investor using freebie charting platforms sees.
I pay subscriptions for my specific charting data. Probably why you may differ on what you see.

2)
March 2000 crash was omitted on purpose for obvious reasons, as it would be an erroneous inclusion to compare, as it had nothing whatsoever to do specifically with SLP or its industry.

2) 85p
I acknowledge your credible 85p reference - If you check back you will see I fleetingly mentioned " 80's " or words to that effect, as almost a throwaway ambiguous line.
So whilst I can see why you mention that, it's not that definite a probability. No need to alarm holders unnecessarily. I will hold to low 90's - maximum, until/unless proven incorrect, as it's a 'loose' opinion of mine.

3) Pleased you concur in that the long term trend in SLP still remains in a bullish uptrend. That's my opinion too.

4) RSi oversold condition: Agreed, everything is screaming its head off - Oversold! Oversold! (A classic buying opportunity but only within a longer-term uptrending stock.
Stoodio's "Coiled spring" is the only metaphor that will suffice here.

---
MarkInvestor @ " thought Velo was talking about Bangrak? "

No, Bangcrak is the holder who suffers from the compulsive-narcissist syndrome. Was not referring to him.

Trying to keep things brief. Will reply to any others I've missed as time permits, and as succinctly as I'm able (which is a big ask for me :)

"... Who is next in the firing line?! Been moi ......"
----------------

Time for quick post only:

Really Quiggers - 'Been moi' ?
- You've been in the firing line ?

I pointed out the pitfalls inherent in your calculations, despite the commendable work input involved by yourself.

Pretty sure I said: "this is not to disparage Quiggers" or somesuch.

PS.
A CFO  posting on here  last year, said he  no longer referred to DCF valuations within his company as he found them of little use and preferred other methods.

I think there is a place for them,  occasionally - but with very strong caveats.

The Shemale certainly loved your alternative 140 valuation and zeroed in on it with some glee.

" @Velvo, it's an open forum to discuss all matters SLP but as you wish."
---------------------

Open yes, but what makes you think all matters can be discussed without permission from the self-appointed Czar of what is allowed to be posted, the guy 2 or 3 posts below - GUVVI ?

When the SP first descended to the near £1 area last week GUVVI who only registered with LSE just 3 or barely 4 months ago, spent his time going back into the posts of a poster (he won't say whom) and declared that person's posts "all other nonsense" and posted the lot under "Show of hands" (he mentions bowls but that was year/years ago, so not sure if he means some charts or all chart talk) and called for others to condemn the poster - which he achieved as a large number of posters clicked his post positively.

Strangely none of them came online to damn the nonsense poster, but his colleague Chatmandu did, declaring she agrees and regarded charts as nothing more than a 'comfort blanket'.

So you see Shanny, it's not me but GUVVI who you have to take the knee to and politely ask if he would consider allowing you to post as you feel.

I saw the large number of people who clicked, supporting his "petition" so can only conclude you won't find any support on this forum.

GUVVI's post laying down the law was last week on Wednesday @ 10:15am on the 14th under the the bullying Na -zi slogan requesting a "SHOW OF HANDS" if you want to look, or you can take the knee before him, just below where he posted today and ask him.

You'll notice he says below today that " Yeah that's the chart i use. . ."

So HE can use charts, talk about them in posts but sadly Shanny, you can't because GUVVI and his supporters say so.
Sorry.

Count me out for blaming Covid etc.,

This country went into lockdown approx 23rd March last year. As people were laid off and businesses closed down with no income being generated (and they did indeed report a bad year financially in most cases) it still doesn't explain the most explosive growth in stock markets around the world from late March onwards - It's like has never been seen before! It's now referred to as the fastest occurring stockmarket crash followed by the world's fastest stockmarket recovery - from a crash!

No hint of a vaccine - that didn't come until November!!! Explain THAT! At a time of a worldwide pandemic the stockmarket experiences it's greatest ever recovery and gain-with 99% of businesses under govt guidance to stay shutdown!

The proof will come when this summer ends it'll be oh this Covid wasn't as bad as expected. Excuses!
During Covid the market soared - Covid had nil effect then did it?

The reason the market soared whilst Covid raged is due to cycles and waves and nothing to do with Covid. Examine the March '20 recovery and explain how it recovered during a raging pandemic. You simply can't. So much for human logic!

Fleccy, this is not a BT issue. It's worldwide wave of bearishness. Anyone with a full list of stocks under the watch list just to the left of this screen is likely looking at a sea of red. Similar in the US. It will all end by the end of summer I expect. I fully expect this SP to go marching off to war in due course, picking up gains here there and everywhere as it marches on :)

Some stocks getting hit a little harder than others. An event in BT that was common as muck in the 5 years down trend to last year hasn't made an appearance since the March crash of 2020. It's looking suspiciously like it may make a re-appearance for the first time in a year and a quarter - the longest since 2016!

Might not but I'm holding back to see if it transpires then, and only then, I will be topping up, as I'm a wee bit underweight. However amongst all this wreckage how wonderful to see in my portfolio, BT shining brightly blue displaying a profitable gain, whilst many others in the portfolio are suddenly in the red and on to a hiding to nothing!

".... I'm genuinely interested on your TA approach, what books have you subscribed to over your time?
-------------------

Sorry Shanny, neither the time nor the place, no can do.

ie., Default Policy decision: I refrain from discussing such matters on a predominately fundamentals website forum.

Right off to get some work done.

" In the meantime my approach is to hold and maybe buy when I think the shorters have finished - maybe early next week?"
-------------------

I concur. Next week for the SP to commence solidly rising.
I'm still holding to my view/opinion that July will close higher than it opened. As the base data for July was June's close, that means July to close higher than 120. It's alright to laugh out loud seeing the SP is galavanting about in the 90's.

However, I'm claiming the right to be only judged on the close of the last day of July. Although I have lowered expectations for a close to July in the high 120's - pure cyclical data/opinion so free feel to laugh, as it does feel a bit ridiculous saying that at this lowly level as that's a massive % gain to occur in mere days near the month end and not over weeks.

Then there's August where I maintain a blow your socks off opinion to the expected increase that month. Not taking any prisoners in August. I expect to see you all standing around barefooted wailing: Who's nicked me socks?

" Long term trend (not MA) ended start of July.."
-------------

You forgot to add In YOUR opinion only!

Utter tosh! Total ballclocks that long term trends ended in July.
I can offer you, as far as the intermediate term only, and no higher. Even medium term is still bullish!

Longer term trends can take many weeks/months before they change direction. Longer term trends would need far, far, longer to change direction.

The only concern is the 200.

PS. The reason I'm confident (at the moment) bar this bear trend to below the 200 - is for one simple fact - the predominant longer term trends in SLP are all still bullish. So is the medium term trends too! The intermiate term has been lost to the bears as well as of course as all short term trends. Never bet the opposite against the predominant trend, be it bullish or bearish and it's bullish currently. My only concern is the standing of the 200 day trend. As that is now as of this morning officially bearish it's always a time of concern that one may be mistaken. There's only one solution - what is the dominant long term position?
And that is bullish. As a trend follower be in no doubt if the long term trends go then so do I.

- They're staying bullish so I stay too.

As a sweeping generalisation, I had quietly held that if this is only a corrective meet-up with the mighty 200day trend line then comparing to the other meet-up's since 2016 (virtually one a year) then it might only descend to the lower 90's - and not even as far as 90 itself, but lower 90's in general. There is a possibility of course that it could drop even further and if so I would be genuinely surprised if the SP camped up in the 80's.

I'm expecting the SP downtrend to terminate in the 90's. The last meet-up (July last year) with the 200, lasted 9 days. The first day opened above the 200 and closed the day well below it. It dropped continuously for the next 4 days or so, then rose for 4 days or so with the 9th day opening below the 200 and closing the day significantly above it. Nine days from start to finish. My data on the 200 is slightly different to most others on here. This represents day 1 to me.

Very, very roughly, on I only visually glanced kind of thing, most of the 200 meet-up's dropped just under 10% at it's down peak. Hence my opinion of low 90's.

All that is very rough top of my head observation and not taken as anything deep. If this drops more than the 90's I will be just as alarmed as any interested party.