Member Info for Velo

Using month-end to month-end SP's, June was projected originally to decrease in the minus -9% area. All year that's what it was stating. However once into June that's where the algo's start becoming somewhat psychotic, it started ranging from lowly -9% to upper end of -9% decreases.
In the final days of the month it crept up into the -10% area.

I gasped as it crept up from the low -10.2% to the higher end of -10.8% projections. On the final day (30th) I posted that it was now at the highest ever % pullback and that was reading -11% pullback !

Well, when it settled down after out of hours trading I was astonished to see it was now projecting a -11.2% pullback for June of next year!

Whilst that final increase in the projected pullback in the last hours of the month was doing my head in, the actual pullback close of 120 was indeed in the -9% area. So its longstanding projection had held. Whilst it's final 'psychotic' % update in the final hours of -11% represented a projection of 118.

So 118 projected, actual SP came in at 120. Good enough for me :)

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From the beginning of this year, I posted numerous times that I expected (seasonal data) the spring to summer SP period (March to end of June) to be "unimpressive".

The February close was 116.8p and the June close was 120 so a small gain of 2.7% which over the 4 months of March to June is well under three-quarters of a % per month.
There have been some notable highs and notable lows intra-months, but SLP holders (if no sells or additions) will be holding pretty much the same in £££'s as back at the end of February. So you can see why I think SLP in isolation has been a superb seasonality candidate.

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Currently the continuing pullback in the SP is IMO in line with July expectations.
I would hope that by early next week it starts at least thinking about terminating this pullback, but in previous years it's lasted from a few days in July to a fortnight and more, before going on a late bull run, however this year's pullback in June looks to have been at the top end of dramatic, so hoping it's tired of that now, except for one thing that's niggling me - that pullback has upset the algo's
- they've whipped away my beloved 100% certainty over July!
- and have now replaced it with only 80% certainty and worse have dropped the 12.3% gain for July down to 9.6% !

Thank Goodness August is unaffected. I expect the algo's to settle down by mid July so will update mid month for July.

9.6% gain for July is acceptable, is it not? (into the 130's)
- as it still leaves mega, knock-your-socks-off-August unaffected.

Full *projections to the year-end to follow probably by Sunday now, or maybe before (depends on other tasks).

* Projections, not predictions nor forecasts - but projections
(predictions allow only one outcome, projections can provide multiple outcomes).

16's? Couldn't resist.

One to tuck away for as long as the international price of gold takes to work through it's cycles.

Several sites showing a close of 120 for Wednesday, others 19.5p
- however LSExchange showing a close of 120,
So 120 it is then.

With a 0% confidence for June, that was the equivalent of the computer saying absolutely zero chance of June closing higher than it opened, so sub 120 or not, it was on the money projecting nil chance against June closing higher than it opened (Opening was 130's).

For July and August (November too this year) the prognosis is for 100% positive outcome, the same as saying zero chance of the SP closing lower than it opened in July and August, whatever the outcome of the actual gains by the close of each month. And it's the 100% months that I'm interested in. SLP has five this year!
THS & JLP have none.

However, final hours trading wasn't really too far adrift from the intra-month lows,  suggesting waiting until the last hours of the month to buy, wouldn't have been an embarrassment.  Happy with my average firmly in at 120.

Pretty happy with the THS and JLP purchases too. Again not much difference to the end of month final closes either. June was a lacklustre month for all three. But having the nerve to sit on your hands was a tough test in itself :)

SLP and THS complete the allotted holding buys today.

Still got one final tranche to place with JLP.
Happy with 18p currently in JLP, but SP looking unhappy so I'm ready to confirm 18  but SP apppearing now to hunt for lower, whilst seasonals for July show JLP as even-stevens compared to start of July. So don't have to  rush finalising JLP.

JLP to come alive on August 1st through to year end.

THS likely projection of 5% gain or so, for July.

Whilst SLP up for more  than double that at over 12% gain.

Be pleased when I finalise JLP final buy as that's the end of all buying.

Confirmed:
SLP: 120
THS: 126

JLP: currently averaging at 18, but final buy still to come.

Will update spreadsheets on arrival  back home and post the projections to year end, this weekend. Be fun to check off against progress (monthly only). The old spreadsheet was guessing June's close. Now we have fact - 120!
All else can now officially follow on from that. So minor  adjustments due to the original spreadsheet post.

All told, I'm looking to bank a couple of £K's profit (or not if this seasonal experiment turns round and bites me) I haven't risked the house so not quite the end of the world if this blows up on me.

Be interesting though, whilst leaving my long term holding in SLP untouched.

This strategy is tied to the fortunes of the supercycle momentum. Not all lend themselves as SLP readily does because SLP has the longer term, positive SP history (the super bowl) others only recently so.

Not me Rojen3 - the strategy.

Some personal lessons for myself so far derived from this expectant swing trade exercise. Another post on that some time as cutting time corners here.

First off I'm gobsmacked by tonight's close. Even though the strategy was from the off saying I'm gonna close sub 120 - and it did!

Think I'm more gobsmacked than Stoodio as I was warming to Stoodio's take on events.

Anyway got my overall 120 holding for SLP so pleased as punch. Had propelled my average up into the 121's earlier so this tranche was the larger of them all, as wanted to put this thing whole stage 1 thing, to bed.

Outta time again.

Tomorrow?

Neah...

- Just accepted 119.888

Meets my targets.
:)

That's it, out of time. Busy now.

To buy offer slightly dropping so took 121.1 to maybe keep the avg inside 120.

Not done yet with the budget so looking for final top up tomorrow, and have done with it.

130's is where the month started so low 120's is just fine. Looking for anything tomorrow that seals 120, but will take several pennies higher if it keeps the avg to within 121. Not seeking a floor, only less than what the month commenced at.

Nearly there in getting the show on the road.

Can't believe it - seasonality is upping it's bearishness at this late stage with just hours to go, to now displaying 11% drop on the month by end of today. Just ran an offer price and to-buy is fractionally lower than my buy yesterday. Grabbing time where I can. But a little heavy cashwise for SLP, so looking top up today.

- I'll extend the rope.

THS now sailing, completed up to budgeted holding but increased from 125's to avg of 126 in doing so. Anything in the 120's is good to go in THS.
Can't believe as a dyed in the wool trend follower I'm buying THS at this juncture when it's still in a downward bear trend.
But it's complete (expecting 5% gain in THS by July end) much more by year end.

Also added to JLP this morning but lost my 17.9 avg and now in low 18's.

18's is good, so pleased and still one tranche left to complete JLP but got all July before JLP kicks off on it's bull run.

Which leaves me with SLP the star of the show and still plenty of adding to go. Would like another buy today and tomorrow too.

Looking more and more likely avg will rise but will blindly give the SLP seasonals plenty of rope first :)

Hoping these posts aren't too annoying.

The lowest SP end-of-day close during the month of June, appears to have been 119. (Not intraday lows, closes only).

1st Observation:
Seperate entirely from the seasonality data is the observation that the final day of June alone, is often THE lowest SP close of the entire month!

For that to repeat this year means that today, Wednesday, not only has the SP to sail past 119 - but close lower than it! (118 is the seasonality data's ultimate suggestion for the last day of June).

Sounds unlikely but put that against the -

2nd Observation:
It too, is not specific to seasonality data, and that is, more often than not, the SP often CONTINUES to pullback (for a couple of days only) into v early July before then turning bullish.

So if Thursday (July 1st) closes bearishly, then it's likely the data will have the last word and sub 120 may yet appear in v early July
- after that, sub 120 (IMO) is extremely unlikely to be seen again :)

Whatever the turn of events, July should become the start of a bull run.

Well I hope all SLP holders are in fine mettle tonight.

As all is on course for the greatest (and regularly repeated) 2 month period in SLP'S annual financial calendar. Like it has done on the trot for the past half dozen years or so. It signifies no new trend just the regular heartbeat of a succesful stock.
And what a heartbeat that the data is suggesting to expect in July and August:

12%+ gain in July
and
circa 23% gain in August
- IMO :)

I thought the other day to myself the SP looks like finishing strong
- and that's not in the script!
Then Stoodio voiced similar.

The price was edging higher
- but the seasonal data was having none of it!

Then today like some turn of some cult wheel the SP turned down - and stepped back from that sprightly performance of the day previous. So took my 2nd SLP tranche in these swing-trade SLP stock experiments as an insurance.

I'm now convinced all is on course to finish to plan
- with the SP bearish again tomorrow - on the big day!

It would be too much to expect the SP to come in on trajectory of circa 118 but a sub 120 to the month end will see me slack-jawed and wide-eyed in wonderment.

Because if a 0% month like June can come in on target then 2 months like July and August both sporting 100% certainty labels, must also be on track to meet expectations as outlined above.

Strange that June is always a bummer - yet it's the month that closes the full financial year tomorrow night.
And the SP will have pulled back 10% from last month to this.
Yet there are no expectations of poor result expectations!

It's only when the Q4 update comes out towards the end of July that the market takes off in serious earnest in August
- yet immediately (to the actuual day) that the results ( usually excellent) are published in early September - there's a slow halt to proceedings as that month September - is a perennial under performer!

SLP must be a Buy on the rumour, Sell on the news kind of stock, as this "routine" has been going now for years.

Not back until end of week now, so might even be the weekend before I can post a summing up and the next stage expectations once the actual June performance in full is done and dusted.
Will project them to the year end and beyond in SLP's case to include January and February (and similar for the less confident seasonal data of JLP and THS).

- Both my pre-end-of-month purchases in those two, are nicely positioned also
- and they will likely be cashed in at the year end, with profits banked whilst SLP's profiits will be allowed to run through January and February - most likely.

The end of June terminates my half year long diatribe against the spring up to summer performance as June's likely close will show the average for March to June has indeed been unimpressive as a cumlative total; and is destined to do so again next year - but getting ahead of myself now - first up is the last day of June watershed.

- Wheels are turnin

The seasonal data this morning was/is still heavily bearish for the last 2 days of this month, despite a nice chomping at the bit by the SP.

And it has slightly stepped back somewhat today (as I post gone lunchtime) so took a 2nd tranche doubling my small position but still leaving room to double yet again up to my budget.

Disliked the offer from iWeb compared to HL but tiny commission fee from iWeb, the chosen acc for this SLP experiment.
... Hmm.

Anyway took it (121+) as of the 3 test subjects SLP was the smallest pre-30th holding, as trying my hardest to stand still until the last day of this month onwards and not get itchy.

This buy comes under the policy of 'insurance' and lifts my average experimental buys in SLP from 119 to 120. (Not to be confused with my longstanding core position held elsewhere).

To have just under half my funds secured at 120 pleases me. Should the bearishness data for June continue, then plenty of room to add lower tomorrow. If it does not retrace lower than 120 then at least any higher purchases have a good base to weight the average down :)

Pleased so far.

It's the closing price to the month tomorrow night that's important - not buying the intra-month lows.

Today's buy by me, is the human weakness on display. The hard-edged nerveless individual would wait as ordered by the strategy, until the 30th of this month as that's the real experiment.

Whatever, for anyone with a serious interest in SLP, taking a position by July 1st is a must.

And/or by August 1st as a last chance saloon. I was supposed to wait for the trigger date - the last day of June/ orJuly 1st.

But I know my weaknesses, hence the tranche part buys - and no calling it outright and going in full-tilt on a human impulse.

Not long to go now :)

(Delayed away from home for one day longer than expected).

" which I've see before and recognise it as the SLP ignition being ignited."
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Wouldn't disagree with that.
My only concern is, will it ignite before June closes or ignite on cue inside July :)

However, the bearishness of the pure seasonality data for June alone, was at its most extreme by Friday's close.

" So Chinese reducing Rh stockpiles too ? "
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Mark, there's so much story telling coming out of China I'm just ignoring it now. Fairly sure that assertion came from a  forum poster, as can't find the link. The Chinese authorities are up in arms over the entire metals market with some Chinese traders refusing to give their name to the media,  where others do, because the scare story fits with the  Chinese narrative,  such as:
" The stockpile reductions are so large I've not seen anything like it in many years ",
and that was for the basic metals markets/alu, copper, zinc etc.,  And it was along the lines of "China is  planning". Nor are the Chinese authorities revealing any quantities.

As far as SLP is concerned - that's had nil impact apart from the odd day the PGM market thanked the Chinese for offerring cheap bargains and then carried on as before.

It's a narrative that's designed to control the herd.

- SLP, I'm expecting a 12%+ uplift in July
and a blow your socks off 23%+ uplift in August.
The Chinese will have no say in preventiing that, or near-circa that.

In general, everything that was highlighted for SLP at the beginning of the year has occurred like clockwork. Should July and August also perform as suggested above, then it will be a massive fail for the Chinese. They might think they control the PGM market but they will learn differently - they don't.

If you are pretty sure Rhodium is not on the list then I would acquiesce to your research as I have no interest In the Chinese narrative, nor am I researching the Chinese narrative.
The supercycle in PGM's  will continue on regardless of story telling Chinese.
They're making zero impact on SLP's SP.

(Part 2. Concludes) > > >

. . . I find basket prices influencing ultra short term trend lines almost as speedily as the many numerous posters evaluating the latest changes in basket prices. So the trends in SP's do reflect the basket price changes. No argument there. But it does suggest that basket prices are cyclical too.

Potential proof? Wait until August and if events transpire as expected (August is suggesting it will be the far greater month for all parties involved) there's bound to be posts highlighting it's all because basket prices/Rhodium, have risen over July/August as the reason,  even though they can only post so after the fact and not beforehand.

Also it's curious that a downbeat June seems to dog  more than just SLP annually, since this latest super cycle took off years ago, suggesting to me, that some stocks like SLP lend themselves extremely well to seasonal data appearing to impact the SP at regular intervals.
So the effects of this cycle are there to be seen in several forms - not just by what action the Chinese take.

Who's to say that the Chinese apparent random reducing of  stockspiles of PGM's when at high market prices, doesn't itself follow on from some unintentional cycle following?

- Or maybe the Chinese are well aware of seasonal flucations and deliberately act at seasonal low points to exacerbate the situation ostensibly in their view, to their advantage?

Although I've played with seasonality at arm's length from time to time, I've never used seasonality data this hard and fast before on any of my investing strategies, but PGM stocks appear to fit well - so far at least :)

PS. This strategy v dangerous if the supercycle crashes fast or disintegrates within 12 months - then it's pure trend following only, for me.

PPS. Not in any way recommending this approach or encouraging it. Has the potential to be ruinous. It just 'fits' with current events.
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Not back home until late next week, so a big update then,  or sometime ASAP after the close of the 30th June month end.

Agricole @ 
" Hi Velo, why do you think SLP will outperform JLP and THS? "
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By outperform I'm referring solely to the  % gains in the SP alone.

I hold that view derived from seasonal, cyclical, monthly data. (The closing price from one full month end to the closing price of the next month end - over 5 years - or more if necessary).

And the reason of why choose that strategy?

- Because PGM's are consensually agreed to be in a longer term super cycle. So the unconventiality is my trying as near as is possible, to observe repeating "cycles" and results are . . . so far, so good :)
(Using trend following for the longer term cyclical progress).

And to answer your question more directly: because SLP are 'seasonally' suggesting a greater % SP performance over July and August than either THS or JLP will achieve.

Post should end there, but handy for me to piggyback on your post by expanding a little further:

More Guru screens (in Stocko at least) favour SLP by a greater number than they do THS or JLP. However it's not top ranking fundamentals I'm trying to measure but sentiment.
Seasonal, cyclical metrics are stronger in SLP than they are for the other two. It's not a contest but a measurement of SLP's market sentiment.The other two stocks are included for balance comparisons.

The starting point for this exercise is the closing price of June in all three stocks. SLP is the  stronger responsively, than the other two, so really I shouldn't include those,  only SLP. But  we'll soon see if that's folly or whatever :)

It's been said, as one might reasonably agree, that you can't rely on this strategy because the basket price is so crucial to the companies involved and moreso, that the Chinese have been reducing physical stocks held of Rhodium et al, and thus lowering demand etc., and is an unknown that can't be factored in, in advance.
That is the fundamentalist view but it carries an implied, unconscious bias, in that the Chinese reducing stocks supplies and manipulating prices must be 100% a random influence.
Well, is it? - the Chinese acting randomly?

I find basket prices influencing ultra short term trend lines almost as speedily as the many numerous posters evaluating the latest changes in basket prices. So the trends in SP's do reflect the basket price changes. No argument there. But it does suggest that basket prices are cyclical too.

Potential proof? Wait until A

(Continues) > > >

AFAGames  @
" well done with waiting out, ..."

Thanks Fun/Games; (also a v good topping-up point by yourself too) but I did succumb a little bit, with part-buy tranches.
My own, quietly held, self-imposed rule of discipline, was for me to be only 'allowed' to buy during, and from the v last day of the month of June. That was supposed to be sacrosanct.
But have sneaked in part-buys on all three - with still a full 3 days to go!
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Stoodio - Ha! Thanks for the compliment but I'm well overdue a full custard pie in the face, so hold that thought in abeyance, until such time as the cows come home :)
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Mark/inv - Tee hee! Any chance you could use that insurance to get TigerByTheTail reinstated?

Apparently he's been banned 'for life', which I find hard to believe as the average ban lasts for 2 weeks only.

- Life bans are for such as using multiple ID poster names etc., or more serious matters.
(Was once banned myself, for 2 weeks - for swearing.
I blamed auto correct :))
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Quick post whilst time.
Purchases in all 3, only days old and already 2 of the 3 in profit. THS is lower so added again today lowering the average slightly on that.

SLP is one of the 2 in profit and the stock with the most buying ahead of me. Have days only left to get there + a couple in early July. (JLP the other in profit). Have all July to finalise JLP.

But have to be tiydied up by end of this month + maybe 2/3 days in July only for SLP & THS.

Not subscribing to some thread posts on the super cycle in Rh ending; they're jumping the gun IMO. Strong shorter term and intermediate term bear trend in Rh yes, but predominant longer term tends still bullish. So currently on available evidence a temporary thing. SLP will lead the gang out of this. THS to lag SLP's performance in July although both 'should' be bullish (IMO).
JLP to remain in the doldrums through July but outperform THS to the year end, after July, but none will get close to SLP performance to the year end. All highly IMO.

Typo!
118 As a sell not a buy as I posted. Rushing no time to post really. 118 as a mid price still on the radar by month close.

" Was waiting for 118 and there it was."

-As a buy. Expecting 118 as a mid price. We'll see. Happy with the starter tranche.

Time only to post .. Just bought in a new ISA separate to my main accounts SLP for 119.15. First tranche only. Several more to come between now and first few early days of July.

Was waiting for 118 and there it was. Won't be surprised if it slices lower before end of month. Anyway the experiment is away and sailing. More buys on all 3 to come but nice entry points. SLP like a Swiss clock. If the strategy is on course for the lows then it follows that it stands a good chance to be on course for the blow your socks off months :) which are imminent. IMO only.