Member Info for Velo

Gone midnight so trying to quickie squeeze this in, as still not free until middle of next week.

Fleccy, saw your final 'volume' posts but I had nothing useful to add even if I was free to post, except to say, there are TWO volume metrics. The TOTAL Day volume which you referred to (Well spotted on the big one Fleccy, congrats!)

And the volume I concern myself with: The TRADING Day volume, which is much smaller eg.,

Total volume is always higher than trading volume, as it includes all the off book fund-to-fund transfers (can hardly call them buy/sells as it's a private agreement between two parties or more, who do the deal THEN register them with the regulatory authorities. Especially as the 5% regulatory takeover threshold had been exceeded.

On the record total volume day, Trading day volume was bog standard, still right in line with my 'unimpressive summer' LOL!

I lmost never look at total volume, as just too much other stuff going on to look at, besides trading day volume is real pounds and pence business, so the massive total volume you saw and highlighted was a shocker - Well, I looked then didn't I? Lol!

There was an anomaly though. That day, Trading volume  was showing as 23.6m volume. Pedestrian, ordinary volume amongst investors.

Average 50 day and 200 day Trading volume on one site was showing as 36m & 34m volume (Not 450m+odd as  in the larger Total volume).

I personally run a 20 day average through the Trading volume cumlative and that was bang on 23.6m area.

In other words it was; nothing to see here folks, move along.
Then I had time to see your volume posts.

The next day "mysteriously" both the 50 day and 200 day volume averages were now showing as 38m and 36m.

A mathematical impossibility on a mere 23.6m single day trading volume.

 (Today, Trading volume was circa 46m - higher than the day the alledged "transaction" took place with 50 day averge trading volume now circa 45m).

The current top 25 holders in BT hold over 56% of all BT stock (58% before the Black Rock sale)
- so before it all gets replaced by new adjustments of the new 12 per center disrupter Altice, maybe can check which big funds have dissapeared if at all, and thus those who've accepted an offer from Altice that they couldn't refuse.

Goes without saying you can't buy that amount in the Trading day volume and it goes noticed.
Ergo; It's all off book.

- Altice have done a good job in concealing their manoeuvres from the market.

Had it been carried

Hi Larry,

You can be forgiven for losing track of my comings and goings as I must hold some sort of record for the number of times I've held and sold in BT, over the past few years :)

Yes, I do currently hold, and intend adding when opportunity presents itself. I last bought earlier this year in the 120's but sold as it unexpectedly threatened to recommence the big amount pullback that it had commenced in Jan.

But it was a false negative and in the next few days it returned to a strong uptrend.
So rebought back in the 130's.
Which I have maintained to currently :)

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Hi NigeCo,

Firstly, I stand by the latter assertion that Oct/Nov/Dec will be a decent % gains period, and not even contemplate that an error has been made
- but accept that the longer term data I am using for the summer months, includes those years where the SP was 'locked' in a merciless downtrend

- it's why I added the over-rider to the original post as I truly believe that since November 2020, BT's SP has changed in a big (bullish) way and now more resembles a 'normal' stock in behaviour rather than its previous incarnation of always losing every single gain made.

So before replying here, I reduced the data to the last 2 years only, and still come up with a lacklustre performance over the summer - but an even greater performance in the last 3 months of the year! :)

Once a full year to this November is completed I am of the opinion that all previous history can be disposed of, and take from Nov onwards as the marker for all analysis, as I believe the change is that decisive.
So this summer wil be truly new ground in the new clothes that BT now wears.

However I accept your challenge of £2 by end of summer as on the available data it doesn't suggest £2 by the end of summer to me.

Hope you win :)

But if £2 does occur this summer, I'm willing to accept it's possible as an intraday high rather than as a close.

I posted the summer post more to highlight That while some may sell I don't think it's because the SP had topped-out but only taking a backseat ride for summer.

After that the brakes come off :)

IMO

"... so I'm not expecting huge strides until the last 3 months of this year..."

-------------

- If anything I might have been too downbeat there. That was based on old 5 year data. However, the world changed for BT's SP last November, and to date has not let up.
So the post below is the worst case scenario, with the change in trend since last November still in play, it could continue to please to the upside - even if unexpected.

With a circa 70%+ gain in the SP since the beginning of last November to currently (with a most notable bearish turn of events with of a pull back from Jan this year to mid February) there has never been a slippage in the predominant, longer term trends, from a bullish outlook to bearishness. They never cracked in that big pullback, nor the other lesser ones.

So expect pullbacks; but if the predominant trends remain bullish, then that is all they are - temporary pullbacks
- not retracements to a strong bear trend. It's something that is left out of valuations: sentiment.
And longer term sentiment is bullish for BT currently. Everything else is opinion.

But there will still be zig-zags and pull backs ongoing. And such a test may now make itself felt IMO. I don't think the SP over the next 4 months will inspire many, so I'm not expecting huge strides until the last 3 months of this year - ie., Nov, Oct & Dec. (Of the final 3 months of this year I'm as certain as I can be, thus I'm laying out my expectations here, now).

I also expect that optimism to be overlooked by others over the next 4 months as short-termism exerts its influence.
So that's all it is. I have no expectations for the SP over the summer months.
I expect decent progress in the last 3 months of this year; not spectacular, but steady. Worse case scenario over summer? = Hold.

There is not a case for selling BT yet, IMO. If you have some hotshot stocks in mind over the summer then by all means part-sell/ sell, and re-invest elsewhere.
But if waiting for signs of when to reinvest in BT, then put thoughts of recommencing on Oct 1st on your radar.

Repeat: there are no major bearish longer term trends in play currently. They're all bullish!
I don't do out and out speculation; I prefer to load the dice in my favour; so should the longer term trends turn bearish, there'd be no discussion, I would be elbowing you out of the way in my flight to the exit door.

No such bearish scenario exists currently. Just an uninspiring summer for the SP.
Don't confuse that, with a change in trends to bearishness.

Stoodio @
" . . . Velo is nothing of the sort I'm sure but I have him tending to his allotment and spring onions during weekday afternoons after assessing his control room of Compaq computers like a NASA controller early mornings :)

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- Ha. LOL! Allotments?
That takes me back to happy childhood memories of my dad :)

Spring onions? Also the same era for the last time I willingly ate spring onions.

As below by others I prefer cycling for fitness (not solely for just keeping fit though).

Gardening? Don't get me started!

Ahh.. too late -

I used to hate mowing lawns and cutting hedges & trees until I cut some trees down and replaced the hedges with wooden fences. Now, I have a much better temper. (I don't have my dad's green fingers).

Not a fav chore of mine, mowing lawns and cutting the remaining hedges/trees.

As the rear lawns grow at a rate of 4 x times faster than the front lawn, I'm thinking on setting up an online petition to ban people (and shops) from selling "fast growing grass seed" unless they sign an affidavit they intend living there for the next 20 years - or face a jail sentence!

Because I've come to believe that anyone who plants fast growing grass seed is doing so with malicious intent, and the sole intention to quickly sell a property, escape responsibility, and it's the new occupants (like me) who then discover they're forced to live in a permanent state of abject horror and torture in a perpetual race to get back indoors and slam the door shut lest I look out and see the grass has already grown too high in the time it's taken me to pack the mower away and walk back indoors!

Bast@rds!

Fast growing grass seed should be banned and put on the same danger list as Japanese knotweed!

Computers? I'm the first to admit I'm on them far, far, far too long.
But then again they do contribute to my income.

" (Both July and August are 100% percent-ers!) "
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For clarity in my shorthand: That's 100% in conviction confidence, not a 100% gain :)

" If my maths is right they sold just over 3.2 million shares ,would love to know how that fits in with velo's monthly trends and the general sentiment? many thanks..."

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Hi lowlander,

(Taking the chance to post now as I'm tied-up from this weekend onwards, for a week and a half).

1)
Yes, you're right on the big holder's initial selling as the day the sale transaction occured, ties up with that pullback to the 115 area the other week.
Must be synchronicity, because I posted back then of the gurus pointing out it's a waste of time trying to fathom out why a sudden drop in a stock, as you can never figure out the exact cause to make a decision until well after the event is over
- which in this case, the causation came a week later with that RNS.

2)
Didn't check beforehand until this evening so can't be sure if it's the turning of the month to June, or because of today's pullback, but the projected % fall is now, not as deep as when I initially posted.
Sounds illogical doesn't it? :)

Initially I was seeing a 11.5%x fall for June (123's) even though it had varied from 11.9%x to 9.9%x in previous weeks/months.

But tonight it's sitting on a projected 9.1%x fall, suggesting an end of month fall to circa a little over the mid 120's+

At this stage it's safer to say the 120's deciles area is looking like the floor when exiting at the month's end regardless of intra-month highs/lows.

The more time I allow into the month, the more accurate - as you'd expect.

Also as to whether it clicked on June 1st or because of today's pullback?
- It's now showing a lowly 20% in confidence conviction; previously it was 0% and had been all year!
Suggesting it's the actual clicking over of the month that's released it from purgatory.

Whatever, June is looking probabilistically to exit the month as the single worst, lowest-performing month of 2021.

June doesn't cease falling on the last day of June, but carries on lower, into to the first few days of July.
So when I top-up in July, it'll be in tranches leaving part-funds for the first 3 days of July to fully load-up.

That low start to July has the effect of making it look even better when it closes, but the true star of the show and the year, will be August.

(Both July and August are 100% percent-ers!)

Don't dispute your findings; and if it proves so, then just as well I'm only taking additional positions in SLP.

Although there is a case for THS matching SLP's 2 buying/ top-up points for this year.

Yep, no undue deference given to fundamentals opinions involved in this strategy, where there most certainly is in my SLP SIPP holdings.

Caveats:

THS expections likely to be completely wrong in that THS's history is one of entire SP unreliability  - until April 2020 !
Up until then that point if was up, down, up, down, a year - to half a year at a time, from launch until the spring of 2020.
As I'm using 5/6 year data points, there's a case to be made that all data prior to April 2020 is void, as THS is now in new model territory.

Similarly with JLP although reliable history, both stocks don't have a single 100% conviction month between them.

Only SLP has both - consistent 5/6 year performance and (this year) 5 months sporting 100% conviction of confidence.

My immediate strategy:

1)
Opening additional SLP positions in an ISA (leaving current core SIPP holding untouched) by buying at beginning of July unless earlier top-up's if the SP dips in June fall below 123-ish.

2)
Selling at end of August / day before early September results publication.

3)
Re-buying at beginning of November and holding through to Jan/Feb 2022 and sell again.

THS/SLP? For comparisons examples only.

Will reveal profits/loss at end.
Unless a large loss in which case I will say: Oh I was only thinking out loud :)

Now have to hand June's commencement SP, and have extended across the remaining months for the full calendar year (below).
Have also included THS and JLP not only for June, but also the whole year too.

I agree, ludicrous to think actuals will come in even close using such a vast forward scale.

However, there's regular posts of valuations on what SLP's fair value is, but none daring to say when those will occur.

Well, here's an attempt at the 'when' :)
(but not based on fair valuation calcs; hence the for fun only moniker).

Am keeping these for personal use, and updating at each month end, so most likely won't be posting the full year for all three again, but only the red hot months of SLP (July and August)
- but should anyone request an update as the month/s go by I will respond (they will change anyway, as each month's actual performance is inputted).

-----------

For end of June I have SLP closing at 123/124
(£2 SP doesn't occur until Jan '22)

THS closing June at 132/133
(£2 unlikely to occur until circa next summer)

JLP closing June in the 18's
(30p's unlikely to occur until circa next summer)

-------------

Full year as follows (month end closing SP's):

SLP:

June = 123.5
July = 138.6
Aug = 170.9
Sept = 165.2
Oct = 160.6
Nov = 176
Dec = 179

'

THS
June = 132.6
July = 140.4
Aug = 153.5
Sept = 152.1
Oct = 150.4
Nov = 161.6
Dec = 173.7

'

JLP
June = 18.2
July = 18.2
Aug = 20.3
Sept = 21.2
Oct = 22.8
Nov = 24.5
Dec = 27.2

Remember : Above is in IMO only :)

Nice summation TBT TAIL.

Ooops final bit of my blathering fell off the end:

'
. . . Gun to head:

I fancy SLP July&August and November & December.

JLP I fancy from August right through to the year end.

THS I fancy just a little bit only in July.
And fancy August and November & December.

- All IMO only

Later today, I'm commencing some seasonality spreadsheet files for both THS and JLP - to run in conjunction with SLP right to the end of the calendar year.

Both THS and JLP don't have a single 100% conviction month at all between them - yet SLP has 5 MONTHS this year where the conviction is 100% on all five months!

Now that's rare. I'm used to seeing a sort of tired, meh, anything seriously much less than 100% conviction in general, elsewhere.

One of my most profitable producing stocks I've held has been GVC (now ENT). Yet it never produced any 100% conviction reliability.
In other words, although I held it for 5 years and made a bomb on it,
seasonality-wise it wasn't seasonally predictable. Ran it entirely by trend following.
You couldn't say oh this month is always a good month, like you can with SLP, it just didn't, and still doesn't, lend itself that way.

THS and JLP are similar. There is no month or any months at all, that you can point to, as out and out conviction winner months in isolation.

SLP is perhaps one of the best I've seen for being a very predictable stock; love it!

Anyway, to the point of this post.
Both THS & JLP whilst showing similar to SLP for June in both having a v low confidence, are none the less on raw data alone, displaying that -

a) THS could take a hit in June, to a smidgen worse % than SLP
and
b) JLP is showing the stronger % performance in June of all the three stocks.

However, THS is low confidence predictability, though it is displaying under the hood to produce modest performances in July and August - but way short of what's on the cards for SLP
- the ultimate difference being that SLP is a 100% conviction slam dunk probability to pull it off, whereas THS lacks conviction, so doubt enters the equation, in that it could do anything other than what I'm posting here.

In other words THS is a low conviction July/Aug candidate but if it does pull it off, it's % performance will be nowhere near in the same category as SLP's

JLP?
A crap July suggested but a decent performance from August right through to the year end, but saying that with low conviction confidence, in other words, for July and August neither THS or JLP lend themselves to predictability well. It's touch and go whether those two perform as the available data suggests.

SLP lends itself beautifully to predictability and is frustration free over July and August, such is its characteristic towards predictable behaviour.

Summary:
SLP to outperform the other two, by a country mile over July and August.

NB.
(JLP does however show a nice (potential) consistent performance from August right through to the year end).

Away from seasonality - Trend lines show SLP the Ultra short term stronger candidate than the other two for the immediate future. Up until Friday close it was bearish.

" . I don't believe the current negative narrative, projected by many vested interest outlets"

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My personal view is that is what once was, but no longer "is".

My post below highlighting a first for company results published in the same month that closed showing an SP gain after publication of those company results is the final validation that sentinent has undergone a seismic shift towards BT
- for the better.

That all sounds reassuring Fleccy. The acid test is/or if, there is, a market reaction via the SP over the coming short term as it's a key position that's in the frame.

My belief system is that "news" is a short term influence only anyway

- but I will be particularly eyeing the SP from Tuesday to see if there is a short term adverse market reaction towards BT for just even considering having an apprentice in the No:2 role.

" The process is being run by the former Centrica chief executive Ian Conn, BT’s senior independent non-executive director. "

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That's what I mean when referring to losers average losers. With him in charge of the appointment I'm not surprised he's pushing for another loser apointment. He certainly isn't interested in hiring talent, experienced talent, that would make him look even worse, would he? So what better than hiring a nil experience newbie to head the board.

I've seen this movie before.

BT still hasn't lost the propensity to knowingly shoot itself in the foot from time to time. Why do they do it when things are going so well?

Remember the infamous but accurate idiom is also a truism:

Losers average losers.

Will she bring Martin Bashir with her as a special advisor? He's a whizz with bank statements I hear.

First, for some unknown reason BT bring perennial loser the Conn man who all but drove Centrica into the ground and under his tenure gladly left it there when his boat came in with a call to come and do similar at BT and is slowly angling for more influence on the board.

Now BT are 'considering' having a greenhorn newbie who's never - repeat never held a key board position like the chairmanship of any PLC ever as the chairman/person of any FTSE company!

Nil experience of say chairing a little AIM company nor a FTSE 350 company.

No straight in at the top table in a leading cutting edge main constituent of the FTSE100 - as a greenhorn apprentice!

Her experience in telecoms runs along the lines of well I still have a home landline so I'm well experienced in BT.

The current board of BT is regarded as inexperienced judged on tenure years. It's my opinion that Jansen has suffered so much at the hands of Du Plessis he's manipulating getting the board stuffed with yes men as a counter to the years of angst at the hands of strong-armed like Du Plessi.

With the replacement of the DT boss for one of his employees, that was the last talent to leave the board. Is the board being filled with talentless no-hopers, non-entities for ulterior motives?

Not impressed with that news despite it being 'only considered'.

The month of May closed higher than it opened, with a 4.1% gain for the month in isolation.
That's an important event that's never occurred in many a year for BT, especially since 2016.

So why is that little 4.1% gain of 'HUGE' importance?

- Only because there's no recorded recent history of the SP closing the month higher than it started - when it's in the same month that the full annual accounts are published ! ! !

This is a first! :)

That's more than game-changing. Most already know the game in BT has changed. The only question in town now is: How far, how high, can the SP travel?

For sure the SP will occasionally pull back, got to be expected now and then,
- but most certainly gone are the large, soul-destroying, fearsome drops for no other reason than that's what was once expected of BT.

It's the first time the month in which the results are published, that the SP did not go on to close the month lower than it opened.

As a Prime Minister of yesteryear once said into a microphone outside No:10 - Rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!

" I'm bullish for early June only (the first week only) so.."

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Just to emphasise : But bearish thereafter for the remainder of June, as I've posted of, previously.

That spiky rise intraday to 137 on Friday was notable in that it had cleared all meaningful intraday pivot point resistance levels - the whole lot! And was still intent on heading even higher.

In such circumstances you would expect to hear of say a new field discovery, an update on earnings likely to be significantly higher than previous guidance, or something.
So wasn't surprised the SP got hauled back down. Anyway keep that 137 in mind for the moment...

If you think that spiky move was significant of forces waiting behind the current price to be unleashed, are you then expecting a bigger bullish push again next Tuesday, to continue?

Or do you think the fact that it surrendered and gave up all of the 137 gains and got deposited right back on the naughty step right on the neutral pivot point of 131, signifies a bearish turn of events to come on Tuesday?

If it's the first option, then I have calculated some surprising expectations for Tuesday - see what you think:

Coincidentally Tuesday's expected neutral pivot point area I'm seeing as 131 again. But all similarity ends there when you realise if there's the slightest bullish assertiveness in the air then the SP will attempt to bag, wait for it - 137!

1)
All of a sudden the computer instead of seeing 137 as a huge bridge too far on Friday is now as of this coming Tuesday seeing it as a straightforward first step and a highly likely outcome. But that's only the easiest and first intraday resistance. What if the SP goes on the rampage again?

Hold on then because I'm seeing the 143 area up for grabs if 137 gets bagged and taken hostage. And should it go the full Monty distance as it did on Friday, done
- then this time that means the 154 area is in the frame for a visit from the SP and some action! Ordinarily I'd say out of the question, but it had a pop at the high end on Friday, so . . .

Too rich?

2)
What about the second option that the climb-down on Friday signifies that a bearish retreat has begun?
Then it's straight back into the 120's.
Yep 120's

Or 3) ?
If the SP doesn't want to play ball and wants some time out, then a day around finally closing on 131, thinking things over is not too risky to leave as is, and fight another day.

So which approx area do you fancy for Tuesday? Which way is it going?
- Bullish, bearish or range bound?

I'm bullish for early June only (the first week only) so am looking to the upside on Tues, maybe as a minimum somewhere between 131 to 137?

However, bear in mind, it's been 3 consecutive blue bullish days on the trot. Is a straight out fourth bullish day in a row possible?

Lot of indicators are bullish; plenty of space to move freely. Looking good if there's nothing dour floating about out of sight. Shorter term trend lines are still unhappy though; as to be expected of laggards by nature.

Onwards :)