Member Info for Velo

Ha! That made me laugh :)

" Velo is the King"?

Thanks for the compliment but -
- NOooooo... You'll get me beheaded :)

We all know that's Stoodio's crown.
You'll have him turning his yacht round from Mexico. LOL!

Alternative view on DCF valuations :)
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There is no definitive equities valuation method - there are 8 or 9 classic methods - all have their pitfalls - and DCF is no different; it can be unreliable.

With some industries, yes, it can prove to be reliable - others it behaves hit and miss.

DCF relies on far, far, too many assumptions and outright spitting in the wind guesses. You have to guess future interest rates etc.,
- and a host of other metrics; that's right you have to make a guess of future metrics then enter them in the appropriate area, then present them on places like here looking all dressed up by Einstein or the word of god on Moses tablet.

Rubbish in - rubbish out, is the typical refrain by the disappointed.

Want practical proof?
Okay, here's Quiggers52 DCF valuation of SLP a few days ago (last week in fact) in his post on 13th July he posts:

" fk it. I`m all in. Bought the dip. Now 40% of portfolio up from 30%.
When u believe... you believe.
200p is there.
Nothing has changed.
This is a blip with a fool and his "men" causing trouble.
SLP still doing what SLP does best. In 6 months we will see
GLA
S "

" 200p is there" - Hmm.
Apart from the different styles in grammar and that of implying impulse buying in the above post, Quiggers DCF has led him to expect 200p.

Today he's now quoting expectations of 176p - What's changed? Nothing more than adjusting his blind guesses.

Now I'm not deriding Quiggers, only highlighting that what guesses you input into DCF determines the output and we can all be influenced by news events that turn out to have no legs.

It's even worse with Bangcrak, the British-hating ex-pat. His DCF valuations of which he is so proud of, informed him to sell up at 80p which he proudly posted of doing so whilst telling everyone how useless they are in comparison to his own investing style.

He posted he sold the majority at 80p (Dec last year) but kept some back, only to watch the SP trend up to 140p's++ in May. Yet he proudly posts of selling the bulk of his holding at 80p to - reinvest where?
What stock had he in mind that would produce greater, in a handful of months than a further, additional 75% gain that SLP went on to produce - had he held?

So one bought on a fast-changing DCF reading and the other sold on an erroneous DCF reading.

I do not disparage using DCF valuations, only those who would convince us all, that their DCF method is the only way - there are many others. My personal preference is comparing company earnings to the industry averages; even though it can be quite ropey at times. None hold 'the silver bullet'. DCF is guesswork.

So, how good a guesser are you?
--------

PS.
My "guess?
Both will be proved correct as the SP pauses momentarily at 176
- whilst on its way to 200+
:)

Hee hee! Not only the director - me too! I'm down so much from several years ago, that just to double my portfolio would cost only triple figures by participating in Catch the falling knife syndrome.

So, I did, even though the SP is still in a strong downtrend.

Knocked over £1 off my average. Will sell this exact amount only at the slightest rise in the future above this 50p+ top-up, and look to do a rinse and repeat in the next down-wave; but first I need an upwave to get this cost back, and thus leave my average fresh for another bash.

Now just got the larger BWNG acc in my SIPP to do a falling knife catch on - and for that I'm risking the SP to not rise above 50p but waiting until the down trend looks as if it's matured, and do the same there.

Did this successfully with PHTM. Can I pull it off again?

Breaking past 109 was today's ticket-pass into Death Valley.

Tomorrow Wednesday, it acts as a life raft in a storm at sea, should the SP close on 109 - that's Wednesday's actual pivot point - and means indecision.

And as the SP is in a steep decline that would mean indecision in one direction only - as in; the market is indecisive in continuing in the current direction and is on the cusp of second thoughts. So 109 is now your ally.

A 112 close would mean the fight is over - and almost certainly a change in direction.

However, the trend is most definitely not your friend at the moment, as it favours a close on 104 as the new substitute for the mess to continue.

Can't say there's any consensus in a change to the overall trend direction yet. (See previous post).

112 would seal the deal on the battlefield, but would accept a 109 close as a starting point for imminent recovery.

All IMO only.

Well, the worst happened. And all is forecast for the bearishness to continue - officially.

And if it wasn't clear before, it is now - the SP was/is seeking out the 200 day average. Unlike this site, the LSExchange is showing the intraday low as 105.5 and with the 200 day at circa 102/103 that's as good as mission accomplished, or is it?

I've seen countless occasions, where the SP stops short by a mere 1p or two of the 200 day average, and promptly reverses the next day without even touching the 200.
Other stocks like SLP tend to break past through the 200 average - and out the bottom!

Earlier this year I watched ITM (Hydrogen) stop just short of the 200 and reverse the next day to a decent height. (I didn't chase after it). Think it's fair to say ITM is a 'bad' stock, SP-wise.
Whereas SLP is a "good stock", yet on every occasion to date over the past half dozen years, SLP has always, always, broken straight through the 200 average! - every time! Hmmm...

Been expecting for a long time, for the SP to go in for some Mean Reversion to balance/synchronise with the 200 average and here it is - in synch; so is it mission accomplished - and now back to work, with another year's gap in playing "you're it" by touching the 200 - should the SP now fly?

Currently staggered by the extreme out of game position the SP is taking up in both Bollinger bands and my fav: Keltner Channels - both are screaming their heads off: 'This can't continue at this rate of descent. Stand by for a correction'.

Funnily enough although the Relative Strength Index is breathing on just above the oversold border - it has yet to dive past it - that would signal the final end of this plunge is nigh, it's close to it - but not officially oversold, would you believe? So no back-up from those dudes yet - and they're the best in this situation.

A little neat ticker called the Commodities Channel Index (CCI) is going stir-crazy hollering hysterically: This is oversold, and to get ready (to borrow Stoodio's phrase - Spring Loaded) to snap out of it.

But again, is it?
Trend lines are all bearish, everything looks dark and black. You're supposed to wait until you receive confirmation and wait until the SP commences rising and all the short term trends click into bullish trends.

So, I don't have a leg to stand on, nor any evidence to present as proof, but I wouldn't be surprised if the SP commenced recovery - even as early as tomorrow. Even then, might be a dead cat bounce as not a single bullish short term trend is a friend of the SP at the moment. So unwise of me to say that. Very. You're supposed to wait until you see the green buds.

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Next post - Wednesday's Pivot points - and a case of what was your enemy today is now your friend tomorrow.
A case of My enemy's enemy, is my friend and all that:)

Exceedingly nasty one-day pullback of over -4% today, so knocked up some pivot points for tomorrow Tuesday, to see how much more toxicity is left in the SP.

IMO the SP will have to close on no less than 114 (or higher) to convince me the worst is over for July.

However, if this is to be the occasion the SP is setting off lower to shake hands with the mighty 200 day average (currently residing just flush of the 100-border at 102) then, I will fear the worst after tomorrow, should the SP close on 109 (or lower).

That's it. It's like England v Italy all over again. 114 absolute minimum close needed, to go on to win.

Less than 114 close, even if it's not as far down as 109, will still leave me feeling uneasy and wary at the prospect of a penalty shoot-out.

Any undesirable outcome tomorrow, then there's still up to approx the end of the third week of July to let this SP-virus run its course, IMO.

Approx 10 calendar days maximum, then I expect things to happen if they have't already.

By the end of the 3rd week of July is the last drink saloon, otherwise July 2021 would set a new parameter.

" I`m already maxed out "
---------

Me too although ooidles of investing cash available but earmarked for other areas. Have to retain the possibility that I'm just plain wrong. And to keep on investing in the same equity regardless is akin to having no plan but buffeted by tumbleweed decisions. I made my latest decision as the last day of June. Had I under invested against the plan then I'd be okay, but have to stick to the road map.

And also operating in perceived (politically) unstable countries adds to the mix of low valuations.

" ....rerated towards fair value a lot quicker than we are."
-------------

That's down to 2 things - being an AIM stock in the commodities industry and the market perception that all miners and processors in PGM's are unduly bound over by volatile market prices in rare metals.

THS holders also lament the lack of fair valuation being realised, but unless you're Rio Tinto or the like, this is the life of an AIM stock in commodities - market perceptions.

Working out a fair value SP on fundamentals alone can prove frustrating.

BigPlan,
- I regard the current progress in July under the terminology of 'temporary'.
It's performing less positively than yes, JLP or THS from the June close to date. (Those two showing nice little profits in the experiment).

Still hold the view that this continuing dip in July is not out of synch at this stage.
If still behaving like this in the final week of this month I will become uncomfortable but as said, SLP not really out of synch - for now.

They are still key months. July however reduced from 100% certainty down to 80% certainty at the last minute. And it reduced the size of the gain from 12%+ to fractions below 10% gain.

- August projection unaffected to that previous.

They a

PS.
Statistically the progress in July doesn't appear visually out of synch with prior years at this point in July: It just feels like it is :)

" The situation in the city is volatile, the BBC's Nomsa Maseko reports from the city. Protesters responded with live ammunition when riot police fired rubber bullets to disperse them at one of the shopping centres that were looted overnight, she says.
The violence has also spread to Johannesburg, in Gauteng province. "

---------

Hmm... pluses and minuses:
cyclical algos not budging on the bullish July month-end projection.

Meanwhile several shorter-term trend averages are still strongly bearish. As are most indicators.

Predominant longer term trends however, remains bullish.

Price is closer down to the key 200 day average (but still bullish) than at any point since July of last year during the 38p pullback.

However, am tied to the cyclical strategy which is suggesting just under a 10% gain for July (low 130's)

With a (20%) chance (1 in 5) the month will fail to close showing any gain.
( ie., therefore 80% probability July will close showing a gain for the month).

All "evidence" is currently against a gain for July occurring
- except for the seasonal cyclicals which remain bullish!

Update:
That's the experiment sailing and underway now - in that for the first time from a standing start, not 2 but all 3 now in profit, and lit up in blue :)
Nice.

Would be but a moment's click to go to the spreadsheet and change the June SP for each £nvestment amount, and automatically see the cascading end of year result in £££'s and pence, but won't tempt fate by jumping the first month.

I find it most pleasing :)

... So far that is... :)

" "Numbers will confess anything when you torture them long enough" -- WB on the Lehmann collapse "
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-Hee hee! I like that one.

" Rhodium seem to be picking up a bit now. Hopefully that gives SLP s/p a boost."
—--------------------
Yes :)

And nice performance from the SP upon returning from a chore.

There doesn't seem to be a definitive market source for Rhodium prices, some prefer JM others varying sources. But XRH0 is handy (physical Rhodium ETF) for data monitoring purposes.

Interesting that physical Rhodium was cyclically projected to be down in June, up in July (hello) and blow your socks off up in yet to come, August (Hellooo yet again) starting to sound familiar?)

A prize for the first to post in August that the SP has soared in August, because the price of Rhodium has randomly risen :)

XRH0 is also projected to have a good November too (hello again) and an even more terrific January (Hellooo once again :)

Coincidences???

That's all I'm offering on Rhodium, that it's price may not be as randomly fluctuating as one might first think. Rhodium to soar this August and rise in November? Just like SLP, eh?

What's to say except, we'll see :)

Here are the Seasonal data's projections right through to the year end.
June closes the lacklustre spring to summer performance period, so is taken as the starting point.

SLP I have as using 119.5 close for June, which is 0.5p different to that shown on LSE. Decided to go with 119.5 because that is the price chosen by the seasonal algo's.
Both THS and JLP June closes are the same in the seasonal data as that also shown on LSE.

Here then, are the monthlies to year end - (month end closing SP's):

SLP:
July.. = 9.6% gain @ 131
Aug = 23.3% gain @ 161.5
Sept= -3.3% down @ 156.2
Oct = -2.8% down @ 151.8
Nov = 9.6% gain @ 166.4
Dec = 1.7% gain @ 169.2

'

THS
July = 5.1% gain @ 132.4
Aug = 9.3% gain @ 144.7
Sept= -0.9% down @ 143.4
Oct = -1.1% down @ 141.9
Nov = 7.4% gain @ 152.4
Dec = 7.5% gain @ 163.8

'

JLP
July= -0.9% down @ 18.5
Aug = 11.6% gain @ 20.7
Sept = 4.6% gain @ 21.6
Oct. = 7.2% gain @ 23.2
Nov = 7.6% gain @ 24.9
Dec. = 11% gain @ 27.7

=======================

'

Observations:

The SP momentum for both SLP and THS have potential small negative % hiccups in September and October by ending in pullbacks at the two month ends.

JLP has the more consistent momentum, in that all its months are projected to show positive % gains after July, but is not projected to start that journey until August commences.

'

Best overall performer from end of June to end of December is:

1st. = JLP with nigh on 50% gain @ 27p

2nd = SLP with 41% gain @ circa 170p

3rd = THS with 30% gain @ just under 164p

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Thanks AllF&Games,

Going to post the year-end monthly 'cyclical' projections soon after this.

Just a word to say this is a swing trade experiment, and so as not to delude and convince myself something happened when it didn't (given enough passage of time I can believe without skin in the game that's at risk, I'd convince myself that 118 was the close because it showed up a week or so before the close) that I've placed allotted funds into the 3 stocks besides my longer term holdings already in SLP.

(Plan is for £5k each in THS and JLP, and £6.5k in SLP) just one more final top-up in JLP to go and it'll be £16.5k all told over the 3 holdings.
So an experiment that potentially could cost me if I'm barking up the wrong tree).

- So I'm interested in the outcome of this non-discretionary form of investing, as the biggest threat to our own success in investing returns is not shorters or sellers et al. . . but ourselves and our discretionary opinions/decisions.

Even the pro's stick like glue to their own strategies and leave personal instincts to one side.

Whilst this is running, I'm going to set up a 20 stock portfolio along the lines of the annual NAPS selection on Stockopedia. I pay a subscription to it, so might as well do another test

(I ran a monthly book in watchlist portfolio form [thank goodness no money invlved back then] on the 2018 NAPS on there, with monthly updates to compare reality to what was being promoted by that organisation.

I was disappointed by the results. It ended in a double figure loss for the full year yet the owner of the site intimated I was being a little churlish as the loss was less than the FTSE that year, as it too closed down on the year, so he regarded it as a success. I bit -ched that no one remebers who cmes second. There was a lot of interest in that 2018 monitoring exercise. I believe Stocko changed the NAPS format after that year's outcome.

Have only ever used Stocko for the data ever since. But I fancy giving the NAPS selection a go, around about October and run it to next May under the guise of "Sell in May and go away and buy back on Halloween".

For that one, it'll be 20 stocks for a total of £40k invesed this time (£2k per stock) which leaves me plenty for discretionary plays of pure opinion investing (ie., trend following :) otherwise it would be all too dull.

P.S. SLP was not my discretionary choice, and never would have been
- I 'forced' myself to select it from a non-discretionary selection offering from a guru screen on Stockopedia.
And it's proved a big hit for me - profit-wise, to date.