Member Info for Velo

"Keeps do peaking "

Tsk!

Damned auto correct!

Keeps dissapearing !

Luna - LSE playing up this morning as your post keeps do peaking when I click in and out of LSE so hoping this gets through.

Nice post but my interest was focussed on your APPL experience. Inrecedible to think that had you held until today you would be in the 100 bagger category! ! !

Even so with 50% of your portfolio invested over that 12 years it would rival the 7 figure sum a straightforward $10k investment would have ahieved by today.

Any chance of a fuller account of your adventures in APPL? :)

- In particular how you coped with 2008 and 2013/14 ?

PS.

SAFETY FIRST:

For the record, not a single trendline of any calibre is supporting my post below.
If they could talk they'd be saying: Not yet mate. Wait.

They've all (except for the really long term trends) been bearish soldily without let up since mid May despite a huge dead cat bounce in the final week of May.
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However, getting some nice signals from across the pond (S&P500) that could force-feed the trend lines into submission.

But nonetheless, all along as I have promoted July and August, the trendlines had been loudly telling me that things had turned badly bearish - and they still are bearish right now.

However, there's something I'm following in the US and it's starting to form today and looking good for their close ( 9pm our time).

Quite animated about it. It transcends all strategies et al.

Similar to Stoodio I prefer not to divulge the-how :)
It could yet be a false positive as it's (the US) only just pipped a pre-selected point of interest. Could just easily be an overshoot; but it has bigger ramifications and means the chance of another pullback before the summer closes recedes dramatically (it pushes that possibility to sometime after summer but before the year-end, but also introduces the possibility of a market-wide positive performance across the board in the latter months of this year.

I'm hoping it kickstarts SLP out of this down trend

" I'd anticipate a further rise for SLP tomorrow. "
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I concur Nimrod. Looking bullish for Thursday.

Personally, I have closing above 101 as a tall order for tomorrow, but a 101 close would still a new bullish signal. (IMO)

If August is to fulfill its annual promise, it needs to get its act together asap. Even so, my current highest hopes lie only in the 120's max by month end.
Whereas prior to that I had far, higher expectations - far higher, but the algo's piciked up belatedly the effect changes to the SP at the month commencement, so inside the 120's is the month end expectation from myself

- although I expect Stoodio has higher still in mind this month :)

If this is truly the start of the big Aaugust breakout, then closing on 101 is still a win.

Closing higher than 101 tomorrow alone is a big, big, ask
- but if it did manage to do so . . . :)

Don't think there were any impish posts missing, Larry.
Just LSE needed refreshing on the chat button to make all reappear again. The only error I saw was confusing the term slanderous with libellous :)

- Thought it would be a tough ask for the SP to close higher than 178. It came up twice as resistance (uncommon) in calcs so although the fastest ultra short term trend has turned bullish - and remains bullish tonight, the SP is not in any hurry to get a move on.

Do though, like how the next trend up is looking like it too, is tiring of remaining bearish.

Overall the SP is (IMO) favouring the next move as leaning more towards bullish behaviour but too early to tell if gently bullish or full on, in yer face bullish.

If it does go on to choose bullish then it would cause me to ponder on the SP remaining quiet until the end of summer, which is my long view currently - quiet until summer is over.

Casp -
I read/ skimmed the big PDF download from private eye ( will read carefully again when time) but it seemed to major on the culpability of Vennells and laid the blame entirely on her watch.

- The execs you quote sound like sour grapes envy to me. You can of course hold any view you desire. I can not ask you to compromise your opinions, nor do I want to. But all told the execs you quote offer no facts just the jealousy they have that Crozier reaped rewards and praise that they felt belonged to them. As I said the lament of losers wailing. Not supported by results or facts.

Casapinos, I rather hoped you were politically motivated, as those are the only terms under which I could tolerate your biased post.

As it is, whilst previously having no issues with any of your posts, there does appear to be a hidden agenda in that post of yours, that I objected to.
You provide Nil evidence of your assertions - yet tell me to go hunt for the "support" myself (LOL!) should I, "care to find it".

You might look for support only (because of no evidence?) others may prefer to look for evidence.
- The onus is on YOU to provide the evidence!

The fact that you can't provide it, implies your post is a character-based assassination/displeasure and not on any results based proven facts. If you have doubts over Crozier, fine I'm all ears; air your doubts, but -

Vennells was the Post Office CEO BEFORE there were accusations of criminal charges against sub post masters. There were no accusations or criminal charges against postmasters in Crozier's tenure - all that came under Vennells tenure.

In one article she is titled as the "Obstructer in chief" for her blatant denial that there were computer software errors causing the discrepancies; the reason she defended the software is that it was so profitable; it replaced countless book keeping clerks. It's like blaming any errors in the handling of the govt pandemic measures on Margret Thatcher.

It is the lament of losers to disparage and shift blame to their predecessors to bolster their own position, and that's what this is. It'd be interesting to hear accurate info/data on Crozier either good or bad, but to quote a Labour MP as if he was condemning Crozier over the sub post masters criminal charges is grossly misleading.

That MP made his comments over the modernisations - not about the criminal accusations against the sub-postmasters. But his doubts have failed to stand the test of time.

The media and the internet are unanimous on the responsibility of the erroneous criminal charges against the sub-postmasters - it's all 100% all Vennells doing. Fact.

Crozier could see what was coming competition-wise; hence the modernisations; and trading results. His successors failed in their vision (Moya Green - and her successor Rico the Swiss guy who did the job part-time by refusing to move house to Britain but travelled back home to Switzerland every weekend to his family, eventually crashing the Royal Mail's SP.

All of the criticisms are from sore losers rants who possess no entrepreneurial vision for the future themselves.

It's a mystery and a wonder the head hunters missed what you allege is out there if you "care to look". They're paid to unearth the kind of manegement erors you alledge; what a pity they missed what only you and a few Labour die-hards saw.

£3?
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- 6 months will be too late for any predator to bag BT on the cheap. (They could bag it - but for a car bootsale price of £3 ??)
The big institutional holders will see the price rising nicely in the later months of this year and into 2022 too (IMO of course).

The only thing that could upset/postpone that is the consensus update due soon - hopefully this weekend.

Sidebar:
Whatever, the fastest, most sensitive early-days trend line I have, has turned bullish over the past 2 trading days. (It's been solidly bearish since June, but has just broken free this very week.
[ I posted it in a table a few days ago with the addition of: Bearish! ( but suggesting potential change) against that trendline; but as luck would have it, it has changed - to bullish ]
It's only one, I need more, bigger, longer, stronger ones to add confirmation. Which takes time.

However, I'll be looking specifically for a 178 close as a minimum, tomorrow Wednesday, to test if that bullish assertion has any further legs.

Meanwhile, I have 2 extraordinary posts (by a UK so-called 'guru') If I can recover them tomorrow. I want you to look at the months/dates they were published (2020 before the big breakout in November that year) and compare the specific prices at the forecast dates, that the writer forecasts specifically for BT, and where the SP is now.

The second forecast has yet to occur, as it's further in the near-future, because of the timeline employed, but you may be interested in the forecast price in that post. I haven't mentioned the strategy that writer uses purposely. I just want you to compare the dates where the SP was, when the forecasts were made - and the progress since the first post. Then "digest" the second forecast.

If you have any passing interest in the forecasts of that writer, the second post on BT will have you "pffft"-ing at even thinking of £3 as anywhere acceptable as a takeover price.

" Nobody puts Crozier in the corner! $hite, wrong film."

- Now THAT's funny! LOLoud here :) :)

Communications industry should have read as Communications Union of workers. So even the unions are up in arms at her management issues.

Even accounts detailed as July 2021 reveal that thee is a massive push to have Vennells stripped of her CBE. Reports say that move is under way. Employees belonging to the Communications Industry are reported to be leading the charge to have her titles stripped. Prior to this her own Bishop called for her removal. Can't believe a politically active holder and poster on here would try to shift and lay the blame on someone else other than the culpret.

The Internet is overflowing with reports of Vennells culpability, so strange that a BT poster on here would try and mislead everyone. Politics I suppose.

From Wiki revealing who was responsible for the postmaster fiasco:

" Paula Vennells, CBE, is a British businesswoman and Anglican priest. She was chief executive officer (CEO) of the Post Office Limited from 2012 to 2019. Under her leadership, the Post Office prosecuted hundreds of subpostmasters for fraud, DESPITE knowing that the financial discrepancies were actually arising from computer errors for which HER OWN company was responsible. "

The other individual mentioned is a dyed in the wool born and bred Labour grandee. Anything hinting of success under cost efficiencies and cessation of inefficiencies will automatically get a thumbs down from Labour because it involves redundancies.

That post below smacks more of a hidden agenda than actual new facts. Don't tell Rod you're promoting the socialist views of a Labour grandee on here under the guise of truth and fact.

" I regret not knowing of this company and researching the cell-ag industry this time last year as I'd have piled in at 5p . . . "

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Aargghh! Stop it! Stop it! Torture!
(Places hands over ears) and:
"Not listening, can't hear you. La, la,la laaaah, la, la, la la - see? Can't hear you.
Laa., la, la. . . . . . . . . . . . . la, la . . . . . .

:) :)

Ooops -

Yes, yes, agreed, we all know of his well-publicised base - his telecoms background, but it's his financial savvy talent that has built him his telecoms empire! He's not going to build it in confectionery retail is he?

The whole market, the entire financial world, of all expertise calibres was left in (admiring awe) at doing what they never had the chutzpah to do. Stealthily crawl through the long grass - ultimate special forces style - and circumvent the regulatory authorities for which this type of event is their prime concern to prevent without full disclosure to the market and announce suddenly in one swoop - fait accompli! - I've just bought the controlling stake in BT - all in one go just 2 days/2 weeks ago-
- just like that as Tommy Cooper might say - all without being discovered and barely, barely, this side of the regulatory law.

No telecoms genuis however talented and gifted could pull that off!

In fact the Goldsmiths of old from yesteryear (asset strippers) were he alive would be sending congratulatory telegrams at a financial operator display of par excellence. He'd be filled with envy.

Yes, yes, agreed, we all know of his well-publisised base - his telecoms background, but it's his financial savvy talent that has built him his telecoms empire. The whole market, the entire financial world, of all expertise calibres was left in (admiring awe) at doing what they never had the chutzpah to do. S

Thanks for the link Nige (took me awhile to get round the paywall but eventually found the way in :) It made clear Drahi's expertise lies not in telecoms but in financial chicanery, hence that company Altilce-UK set up specifically to manage his BT stake.

And I was delighted to see a following a link in that article that BT is going to need a strong chairman to cope with Drahi and suggested Crozier was just such a person :) And smiled as my initial post based on personal observations said that with Crozier there was now one person capable of seeing through any shenanigans proposed by Drahi.

Don't think I've ever seen such a triple strong line-up at the very top in BT. Marvelous!

Drahi is not the enemy - he's just a domesticated big cat taken from the wild that you often see like on YouTube parading up and down in someone's house as a dangerous pet.

- (Drahi does not yet have a seat on the board by the way).

" What’s the crack with Crozier? He’s a hatchet man."
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Snippets:
" Crozier became the chief executive of the Royal Mail Group in February 2003. Entering the post, Crozier described his remit as the "biggest corporate turnaround programme in the UK".

Crozier initiated a programme of modernisation and reform, to deal with changes in the service brought about by reforms beginning with the Postal Services Act 2000.

In Crozier's first three years, the Royal Mail division produced record annual profits of £537m in May 2005, making £2m a day in profits, up from £1.5m a day losses before he joined.

Result -
The Group overall had been transformed from recording losses of £1.1bn at the start of the turnaround plan in 2002 into a profit of £355m in 2005.
Royal Mail chairman Allan Leighton said it was a "fantastic turnaround"
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ITV
" On 28 January 2010, it was announced Crozier would be leaving the Royal Mail later in 2010 to become the next permanent chief executive of media group ITV plc
Crozier was given the task of increasing ITV's advertising revenues which had fallen with the proliferation of new channels in the British television market.
On announcing the appointment, ITV chairman Archie Norman said of Crozier that: he is a "very strong leader with a great track record in delivering transformational change".
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" Crozier, despite having taken on high-profile jobs involving pressing through major upheavals, is described as "softly spoken" and has previously said of the spotlight:

- "I hate it, absolutely hate it.
The bizarre thing about the last three jobs I've done, is that I don't like the public profile at all. I will go to enormous lengths not to do public things – because it is just not me".

Even though this company has been listed for 11 years now, clearly in such a start-up industry, all is research and development; and thus constant cash calls would be de-rigueur. Expected even - Yet on 11th May the market reaction was to run and hide with the SP crashing (no other word for it) 30% in one day!
From an open of 37 and closing the day off its worst at 25.7

- Were it not an AIM stock, that 30% one-day crash, would qualify it the same as a stock issuing a profit warning! And therefore this pullback would continue retracing for a considerable time yet to come.

Do any long-term holders here, regard this continuing pullback from May (still in force) as nearing its end, or does it have more legs judging by any previous cash calls, they've witnessed in this stock?

" However, I do not feel confident about my investment, "

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Ha hee - not an uncommon feeling, in general investing I'll wager, once a retrace gets underway :)

One shouldn't truly be able "to sleep soundly" as no investment is ever truly 'safe'.

A safe investment would be expensive and give poor returns.

The market does eventually reward investors for their risk; if you make the right choice in the first place, that is :) - the holy grail of investing that just never ends.

1)
Are there any strong views on the SP floor being no lower than circa in the 22 area?

The SP does appear to be skirting along that vicinity almost as if too timid to pullback further in this retrace :) that commenced back in early May and hasn't let up yet.
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Last year's results produced its first ever net profit showing and the market guidance is showing to expect a considerable further increase on that, in both the top line (revenue) and the bottom line (net profit) yet the TTM method of a rough and ready calc guide based on latest trading updates suggest the year will close back in a loss, yet achieve far greater revenue than forecast.

2)
Those results are already 'in the bag' but looking like they won't be published until this December. Is that delay a result of Covid guidance from the market regulators (many reported late, legitimately, last year) or has there been any notification of an earlier publication date?