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" When I ever mention ut people say its irrelevant "

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What they mean is that for us PI's it is largely irrelevant insomuch as it refers to all the loose ends that have already occurred during the day. They are not brand new mysterious investors who buy or sell after the market has gone home.

It's already happened and a lot of matching is needed to balance the books.

It does though help define the day's closing price, particularly after the 5-minute 4:35pm auction has concluded.

Not a good enough close today to offer a decisive judgment. The intraday low slipped below 153 to the 152's at one point - but was rebuffed from sinking further. That was good.

- But not enough to get carried away with.

Net result is for Thursday, that targets are real easy tomorrow. That's how weak the market perceives the SP to be - the calcs have set real low levels to overcome. Just a 0.15p rise on today's close would put the SP in a neutral position for Friday - just a fraction; can it do it?
And a mere 156 close would be a victory of sorts. Barely more than a penny.

As it's not a good close, logic dictates unlikely.

And yet it's pleasing how the last card - the Fibonacci 150/151 level is emanating anti-gravity pulses towards the SP. Because if that level goes, I'm likely to take my now small profit off the table and sit things out on the sidelines and re-buy when the retrace is over. The longer the SP remains below the 200 - the worse the longer-term outlook grows. There's no time to lose. Already the 200 is a smidgen of a fraction away from climbing to 158. Eventually, if this retrace continues it will level off, and then commence freefall. And it's back to bad old days of the old 5 year chain-gang and wondering, was it all just a day-dream?

I like how the Fibbo 150/151 level hasn't been challenged even if only intraday, yet. Despite all that noise from the mega volume thrown at the SP on Tuesday, it didn't take a scalp like it did the 200.

Hold that thought for Thursday.

Bears still rule, no question about it - so any half-decent progress tomorrow would be unexpected by the market.

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I've been bashed in my commodity stocks (after seeing glorious profits) due to the worldwide shortage in the semiconductor chip market. Now reading that Telecommunications stocks are threatened by the shortfall too.

Is this the reason for this prolonged retrace? Surprised the more knowledgeable telecommunication engineering posters haven't picked up on this issue
- because if it is, then it's just a matter of holding on for the next year at least. The chip shortage has decimated the worldwide auto industry this summer.

Reports say the telecommunications industry is next; ie., market acting in advance of expected poorer performances due to the chip shortasge???

Also is that why the trading updates have been stalled?

" . . . I understand what you're saying, but how do you charts register Off Book trading? . . . but shadowy trades means the charts can only register a myopic picture. . . etc.,"

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I don't over dwell on it Fleccy.

All that's happening is that two parties decide to cut out the middleman (the MM's) and buy and sell directly to each other with no one looking on.

Only the company registrar has to be informed, to record the new owner, and if large enough, the regulatory authorities, via an RNS.
Depending on the prices paid/received by each of the parties the MM's will subsequently derive a price to affect the market price, even though they were initially out of the loop.
So the wider market "knows" by the price they eventually see, either increasing or falling.

I usually refer to recorded Daily Trading volume, as that's what's touted mostly.
- Yours are for Total volume.

There isn't usually a great deal of difference, but normally a difference none the less, except for exceptional Drahi cases which you can count on one hand per year - if that.

- For instance, you posted Total volume of 55m.

- Daily trading volume that I usually refer to (because it's highly visible for the charts on the day) was 51m+ on the same day.
I can live with that because it's compared to the same category (Daily Trading volume) so the percentage movements match up.

Although Drahi's purchase was a rule-breaker/regulations-breaker, though. No doubt about it. At the most generous if not dishonest, it was not in the spirit of transparency and honesty.
More deliberate obfuscation to hide and deceive, to attain a financial advantage over the unsuspecting - technically a crime.

I'm okay with that (not Drahi) but okay with total volume v daily trading volume, varying. (Saw 57m on another site - higher than your 55m).

I don't overuse volume in decision making as a rule. It's only of relevance to me if it's at either end of the scale.

We, as distanced private investors, can never 'know all' that occurs in the market - never!
There's always underhand insiders ahead of us who know before anyone else
- always.

I deal with the hand, life deals me, and make do as best I can.

PS. Clearly in Drahi's case he knows 'people' otherwise, you and I, would find ourselves being investigated by the securities fraud squad if we tried to pull what he pulled. The world is not always a fair place, for ordinary Joe public.

Within 10 minutes of today's Tuesday open, the intraday history shows the SP had crested up to the topside of 160 - and was immediately hit by a wave of bearish selling.

The bear attack never ceased all day, but apart from a stand-off from 11:15 am to 1:30pm where the SP defiantly, just would not let go of 157 - the bears increased the pressure far more in the afternoon, and finally dragged it below the 200 day trend.

Just as I was thinking, the SP might be flirting, but it keeps pulling back from kissing the 200 day trend line, then whoosh so much selling in the afternoon the SP got waterboarded until it caved-in and sunk under the 200 day trend.

Well above the average trading volume for the day - in the top 10% days of highest volumes over the past 12 months!

(PS. That oversold condition that looked as if it had terminated, is back in play, and has changed shape to a more sprawling mess - so the SP is tonight back in Oversold territory; worth bearing in mind for the termination of that condition
- 160 this morning, was as far as it got away from the prior 'apparent' termination: that's cruelty).

Big pension funds who drop stocks that fall out of the FTSE100 may also use the 200 day trend as an additional warning "confirmer" for those equities that have not been demoted from a higher index but have crossed a "red line"
(PS. The infamous 'death cross' favoured by the institutions is well away from occurring yet).

Who was doing today's massive selling at this late stage since the June retrace commenced?

Majority of trends as you can guess are resolutely bearish. No matter what I post here - that is the position - bears rule! Not nice.
Whatever, I regard this close @ 155 as in similar territory as the 159/158 was previously. The SP floating just above the 200 day trend and now just floating a little below it. So bouncing off around the 200 trend is still in play.

- However, more trouble ahead should the SP close, closer to 153 than 155 tomorrow.

The 150/151 area is now looking more like the OK Coral final showdown where it'll all get decided, if the SP slips more towards 153 tomorrow.

Haven't done any studies on volume around the 200 day trend; I tend just to observe whether it slows up around there or goes skating past - into oblivion. Living below the 200 day trend is to be resisted. It's okay for a day or two, maybe a week or so, but that's all!

I'm nicely in profit, and still looking to top-up, but only when I get confirmation this retrace floor is in. This 150's area is as good a place as any to get a bearing on events, before making further assumptions. Not topping-up until the retrace ceases, and the trends commence turning to the upside.

(Have some god-awful lower Fibonacci levels awaiting to share, if the SP can't head-butt it's way out of trouble around here - in the 200 day trend area; but don't want to mention those unless this 50% Fibbo level is lost to the bears ie., 150/151).

" Velo I'd be interested to read your views around charting and the impact of Algo trading. Since many traders use charting to govern their trades, does that make a large body of trades predictable and at the mercy of the Algo's?..."
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Hi Fleccy, not back home until midweek-ish, so fitting in this reply whilst available time to hand -

I am (or try to be :) a trend follower so you could say my moves are therefore very, very, predictable, to either an algo or a market hedge fund manipulator.

However, I don't depend on one set of trends. I have a set for every occasion and draw a conclusion of opposing trends within larger trends, from micro up to ultra long term.

Algo's don't worry me in the normal course of events as I follow the trends anyway
- whoever's behind them.
In other words I don't fight the algo's I move with them, or attempt to.

If the trends are a direct result of Algo's or the Drahi's/ wider market, I wouldn't know as I can either go long in an upswing, whoever is responsible for it - or short if of that mind, in a downswing.

But! I do notice the effects of the Algo's in the (5 minute) intra-day trading areas. One has to be more than emotionless in a 5 minute timescale, otherwise chart "certainties" that nearly always work in the normal course of events fail spectacularly in day trading.

PS. This is the second oversold condition in BT in a week or so, that has not terminated in a decent upswing, but a continuation of the downtrend.
Usually the SP has a little flutter to the upside on exiting an oversold condition and one has just terminated in BT this week/last Friday.
(So on the lookout for a potential upswing).

Is this, longer than usual down trend in BT, prolonged because of the algo's?

I don't concern myself with that - only in perfecting ironclad discipline in following the trends - my biggest failing in investing/trading, ie., thinking I know better than what the trends are displaying!

It's a moot point procrastinating whether a trend should be longer or shorter than it is, and conclude it's the work of algo's cutting short or extending events beyond expectations.

I have no idea what's behind this "sudden" prolonged retrace from June except as I posted in the summer: who's going to continue with the excessive buying now that Drahi has said he's laid up buying and closed his wallet?

What concerns me about the SP right now, is the reaction to encountering the 200 day trend line. It's a worldwide industry standard. It should rebuff the descending SP as I can discern no obvious reason for the extended retrace this summer apart from it being a characteristic of BT to have unimpressive summers. Just as it's a characteristic of BT to have a pleasing positive SP performance in the autumn/early winter months. (cyclicals ie., Oct/Nov/Dec).

- All I've got time for.

I'm musing over 120 being "fair play for the current situation" in the coming weeks/months should the chip situation and metals pricing show no improvement. Some say the chip situation will resolve "soon", others from next year.

Yet media reports last week quoted one manufacturer saying they had been told their semi conductor chip orders are on a 12-month back-order waiting list, so the article concluded that the situation with chips will resolve slowly over - . . . years
- before full needs are met on a regular basis.

I think SLP has suffered worse than THS and JLP because of that Q4 update.
(Net profit fell by 64% in Q4 alone).

And also PGM production fell 6.5% in that Q4 period too, with "the quality of the feed" from client mines dropping, meaning fewer ounces from the ore it processes - thus leading to the next issue - raised costs!

- And one thing SLP is known for - is as a superb low-cost operator. That now looks under some threat should the poor quality feed continue into H1 and beyond.

Add on the other external issues and the market has responded negatively.

I took fright after the ATH intraday high of 148 or so, was reached in spring, and didn't look like it would return there soon, and then feeling uncomfortable with so much of an overweight position (especially as I took on additional positions in a cyclical/seasonal experiment at the same time) that for peace of mind I have been 'top-slicing' furiously to bring my overweight holdings down to manageable levels and thus lock-in some of the profits.

120 is my re-test area.
But feel happier having banked profits, and now feel lighter, slimmed down.

Q1 will inevitably be compared unfavourably once again to a now comparative high-level Q4
- but Q1 will still be seriously higher than Q1 last year, as will Q2 too, should the current metals price area hold. So this new 21/22 trading year should be okay.

I have no real fears for the full results next Monday (SLP's reputation as a high margin operator is seen in Q4 despite the fall in Q4 profit; SLP's profit margin in Q4 is higher than most others)
- it might only suffer when the media compares recent Q4 performance and any info in the results appertaining to the new current year of Q1 (didn't read of an end to the raw poor quality feed coming into SLP).

Rhodium is still undersupplied in most analysts opinion, so despite automotive lay-off's due to chip shortages, Rh may yet come back in price somewhat (and save the day?)

Rhodium has a significant effect on SLP's revenue's (and hence the SP) and so far from Rh stabilising at 19,000 from the beginning of August up to 19th August, it's been dropping ever since (until last week).

I've never had a handle on Rh because there is no definitive market for the price of Rhodium. So taking the popular J/Matthey site as the template, decided I needed by hook or crook, some sort of a handle on all the metals, so this morning started with Rhodium.

I now have 2 price ranges which I feel diminishes the adrift-at-sea view on Rh, and I now offer a view on - until reality proves different, that is :)

Rh does not have a singular presence in my base data. And JM charts are inadequate for my needs in trend following, So had to use spreadsheet calcs using Fibonacci sequences.

And the result is (after taking the 24th March 2020 Rh significant low of 5,500
- up to the ATHigh of 23 March 21 of 29,800)

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- that right now, where RH resided as of the end of last week, could well be the floor - the 17,000 area.
But if, after a period of rising/stabilising again - it returns to a retracing price range, then my next comfort zone to expect it to fall too is in the region of 14780's - and should that fail then further on to the end at 10,700
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August appeared to be stabilising at 19,000 after the drop from the ATH of 29.800 in late March, but it had slowly descended from 29,800 to 22,000 by late May, and down to 21,400 by early June, with 19,000 only holding out until the 19th Aug where it ceased stabilising at 19,000 and returned to dropping steadily until last Monday it hit 17,500 on 24th Aug, and down to 17,000 on the 24th.

The next 3 days were synchronised with SLP's SP as Rh rose to 17,100 the next day, 17,300 the day after and 17,400 by Friday close - v similar to the last 3 days of SLP's SP trend.

Here's the Fibbo levels I cane up for Rh -

Fibbo%= Rh $

23.6% = 24,065
38.2% = 20,517
50.0% = 17,650 (50% Strictly speaking is not a genuine Fibbo number)
61.8% = 14,782
78,6% = 10,700

If Fibonacci has any influence on the Rh market then the next upside level, could be back up to 20,517 (see table above).

(61.8% tends to be more significant in my observations most times than 50%, so a little unsure if the 50% 17,000 area is the bounce-off floor. But over the past week it's acting like it might be :)

- Whatever, I now have a roadmap for Rh :)

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