Member Info for Velo

Despite the run back down to currently 161, the Short trerm trend did cross bullishly to the upside this morning and even at 161, the SP is pin-pricking just a smidgen above that trend line, reminiscent of the intro graphics to the sitcom Dad's Army pointer sticking it's tongue out, too and froo-ing, just pin-pricking, threatening to go for it :)

Almost succumbed to topping up at 162/163, but still too early for my modus operandi.

Think this SP area accounts for the latest court news compensation case, so not expecting much until the decision is made public.

However, I'm quite upbeat from Friday onwards (the Oct/Nov/Dec season), which should ameliorate somewhat, any adverse events in court against BT.
Any damage would have scored much better against BT in the deep summer negative-sentiment months. Sentiment will rise in BT's favour in its home grounds which is traditionally autumn.

When you think how long the SP has played in the 150's, isn't it a sign of positivity that in the face of renewed, energised, negative court action against BT, sentiment is keeping the SP in the 160's. ie., it's already discounted for risk into the current price.

The stockmarket already discounts the future in the SP's not react to it as if reading that day's newspapers.

The half-year trading result for BT closes tomorrow, the last day of Sept.
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This year that Q2/& H1 trading update is published on Thurs, 4th November.
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An announcement as to the exact date in Feb 2022 that the divi payment will occur, will probably be in that statement (early Feb last payment received) and with it the declaration date by which you must be holding stock in order to: be in it, to receive it in Feb.

There is a possibility they could announce when to expect the divi payment date in December instead - as they did last time (but they were on the two divi payment system then).

- Since 2016 the full year divis have run at circa 15p (with 4.8/4.62p being the interim payment, so circa 10p for the 2nd divi payment).

Of course that landscape has now changed. So the focus will be on how much the divi will be, in relation to the prior interim 4.62p payments.

Can't recall if they advised they would only reinstate the one single payment or back to both the interim, and the full year payment too.

(Maybe next trading year for reinstating both payments?)

BT should make a counter offer before the court ruling decision is reached and ask:

- If BT pulls down a couple of statues and the entire BOD takes the knee, will that suffice as an apology in order to reach a mutually beneficial agreement?

" A paltry £1.20+ to start within the next couple weeks will do. "

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Yes :)
Pulls on party-time bald-head cap and commands: Make it so Stoodio!

Halespur - my Rh data is taken from the Johnson Matthey site. In general they all rise and fall within reason of each others platforms, so if JH have Rh rising for an extended period (7 days so far) It's more than probable that all sites are rising in unison albeit with slightly different specific numbers as each platform deems. So the general thrust direction should tally wherever you look for data. It's beneficial to use the same source data in making evaluations and not use differing sites on each update review, though.

That’s 7 straight-out trading days where Rhodium has risen consecutively to today's $14,500.

Now that's a trend :)

Took its time to feed through to the SP, but clearly the market is trying to establish a suitable SP area whilst these chip conditions brood over all.

A few on here maintaining that the chip condition will ease sooner rather than later. (I hold no view on that).
However, if that view is to hold water, then there are some way-markers in Rhodium's back story, that will have to be overcome first.

Can't get any decent tools on Rhodium because no one's platform is supporting any algo's in it. XRH0 has them in spades, but it's not quite the real deal is it? So will have to eyeball it, old-school-style with Swing Lows and Swing Highs.

Each old Swing High represents a defence (resistance) force that will have to be overcome before the Rhodium price and hence the SP can travel up further without hindrance.

First up is quite a weak-looking Swing High (not really a Swing High) and that was on 13th Sept @ 15,250

- Note, that's the first target. Get an assault force team on it.

Next up is yet another weak resistance at 16,850 on 8th Sept.

Now those are easy-peasy take-downs. Regular troops could tackle those. So if the SP stumbles on those and pulls back, then the case for an early recovery recedes.

Suppose Rhodium does take those down, then now special forces will be needed as the 1st Sept is the first true Swing High sitting @ 17,600 on the 1st Sept.

Take that down and all hell breaks loose, so air cover will be needed from there on in.
That's because the daddy of all mean-spirited murderous terrorist resistance lies in wait @ $19,000 - a month long (August) strong support level (now reversed polarity to a resistance level).

It's that level that could likely stop any advance, and hence any further SP increase.

So, to sum up:

15,250
16,850
17,600

- are dead easy. We're at 14,500 tonight. Spitting distance to the first target. Time to get real disappointed if the front line troops get their Rrrses kicked back by any of those grannies.

19,000 is where I expect serious big trouble. Take 19,000 down and there's a box full o' medals waiting.
But 19,000? Remains to be seen.

That's where my doubts lie.

You have your orders. Now mobilise your troops - and move 'em out!

Oooh that's a dangerous strategy. Never copy what someone else does; only ever form your own decision in investing. Everybody loses left right and centre, on a regular basis, more than we realise. I let over £9k profit slip away needlessly a few weeks back. Want to copy that? :)

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Wonder if today's SP performance for September signals the end of summer? :)

Because I won't be surprised if Oct/Nov/Dec sees off this downtrend. Was too busy to post the other day, but the Ultra Short Term Minor trend (the one I keep saying to not trust entirely) - turned bullish a few days ago and is running with the ball.

I need to see the next trend up - the Short Term trend cross to the upside, and then that's it, confirmation of a change in trend is underway.

It still hasn't crossed to the upside, but is moving smartly towards doing so. But not letting greed get the better of me. Will wait until it does turn bullish, holds and builds on it, so instead of my gambling, by buying below in the 150's I'm just as happy buying at several pence above 160 with further confirmations that the commencement of moving out of this down trend is holding.

I'm becoming more disciplined in adhering to what the trends are doing. I was asleep at the wheel when this retrace started, as I was on another investment of mine that did exactly as BT did in June (but from further back in May and pretty soon a 5 figure profit was down to barely a 4 figure profit) so took that paltry amount - and I'm still angry with myself.

Round about then, noticed BT's retracing down trend was taking out significant trend after significant trend, but only got with the program too late (My fault for looking at other stocks instead of concentrating on the stocks I already hold).

So angry with myself, I swore to adhere to a strictly disciplined approach where the trend lines are concerned. Not moving a muscle until that Short Term trend crosses to the upside. Would like to see it eventually bring the stronger Intermediate trend back into the bullish fold, and from there repair the other higher levels too.

The Intermediate trend will take weeks to change but is the ultimate in safety. If I wait for that to cross to the upside, there's no telling how high or where the SP will be by then, so letting the Short term trend have the last word. When it moves up - I move too. Not before.

Nice to see the SP escape from below the 200 day trend, by both opening and closing above that 200 day trend today. As someone north of the border might have once shouted:

F-R-E-E-D-O-M !

Johnson Matthey had Friday's close as $14,400

Thanks Wetherby, for taking the time out to contact BT over the analysts update.
- Interesting response.

To avoid falling into the trap of taking undue notice of analysts forecasts of what the future SP might be worth, I've said many times the only sensible option is to try and discern if, as an overall consensus, their "opinions" are increasingly bullish from one update to the next, or increasingly bearish.

Accuracy is secondary. But it is a fact that they form the market view - until actual full year results are known. So it is useful to glean their "opinion" trajectory not as individuals but as a consensus. Are they overall increasing or decreasing? That's what I look for. Not their latest view on the SP.

Random individual media posts quoting the odd analysts opinons are almost meaningless be they bullish or bearish - for the market.

"More balanced than many"?

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They too, start off on the wrong foot also. It should be clear by now, that a lot of guesswork goes on, and investors' own opinions are no worse or better than theirs.

It opens with:
" Underpinning the pullback in the BT share price has been the telecoms company’s disappointing first-quarter 2021 earnings, which were released on 29 July."

Pure made-up guessing to fit AFTER events.

The day the Q1 trading update came out, yes the SP dropped quite noticeably. What they omit is that from the very next day and for the next fortnight the SP went on a bull run leaving the bad-day Q1 publication day close of 171p in the dust, as by close on August 13th it had climbed 'daily' virtually non-stop, up to 178p!

What a disconnect to the "disappointing" Q1 result - the SP went on a bull run for a fortnight! Right in the middle of an established downtrend.

Not only that - the SP commenced this deep retrace a full month earlier before the Q1 release, circa 28th June, with only one trading day left in June the SP sank deeply from 200p down to 182p - right up to the day before the Q1 was published!

So much for the Q1 result was responsible for the fall.

The truth is, these media pundits MAKE UP a reason AFTER events have occurred that sound logical. We demand reasons and there's a lucrative industry supplying us with comforting reads on "this is the reason why".

The fact is, as stated in numerous investing books - they don't know why, and the majority of the time get things plain wrong. Just like we all do. We choose the fairy tale that sounds most sensible to each of us.

This huge retrace is not the result of some stray Q1 release. The downtrend was heavily under way a whole month before the Q1 was published. Guesswork by the journo, even though it was a throwaway para and not the focus of the article.

" . . . see anything of concern that might explain this sell-off? Just wondering . . . "

" . . . It is a solid company and yesterday's drop is very confusing considering they have just reported a 23% improvement in revenue in its first half. . . "

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From what I've read, it's being suggested that the market was expecting more than was actually achieved in Europe, despite the upbeat results.
- Hence the SP pullback since the trading update.

Perhaps the market is too greedy on this occasion?
From £1.87 launch back in late 2014 to £23.40's of the ATH the day before the H1 trading results were published, turned Gamma into a 12-bagger in relatively short order!

Currently (£18) that's over circa 22%x pullback since the morning of the results, earlier this month.

What's interesting is that the SP is currently under the significant 200 day trend. (Only just sank under it from Tuesday this week).

- Approx once per year, give or take slightly less, slightly more some years, the SP does that when it climbs too far from the 200 (reversion to the mean).

As it's below the 200 as of now, the guessing game is to spot when the SP will commence rising back above that level; which should be imminently based on history.

Many occasions the SP sank quite a fair distance below the 200 before recovering, other times , similar to know, just a handful of days only, so could it do similar on this occasion too?

£18-ish the floor, or further south before the pullback terminates?

Candlesticks suggest £18 is the likely floor, however short-term trend lines have yet to cross to the upside.

- Think I'll wait until they cross, the final arbitrator, just in case I'm wrong about the market being too greedy, and it's something else.

" See no reason for . . . "

Typo -

See no reason against achieving a minimum of 161 for tomorrow . . . .

Ha! But look how he's sneakily upped his previously confident, dour £1 forecast up to 130p since he last published on BT.
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A nice close; can it be built upon tomorrow, Thurs?

See no reason for a minimum close of 161 tomorrow; and coincidentally both 162 and 164 came up in the calcs.
- Think those might be a bridge too far at this stage so will happily settle for 161.

Whatever, the SP can not close on 159, or it will let the bears back in for Friday.
So, anything above 159.

PS.
Before that 164 is possible the SP first has to reach out to what is currently 162.

Since this retrace commenced in late June, the SP has only ever kissed the dominant downtrend (upper line) in what I term as the short-term trend. And that was just coming up to mid-August, where it kissed that line but never closed above it. Back then that was sitting @ 177/178.

That same line has now descended to 162, and just as back then, in all that time from late June to currently it's only ever been kissed the once, and was quickly rejected from progressing further.

So taking 162 prisoner would be a positive, even if it took several days more, afterwards, to attempt an assault 164.

What the SP has done, is hug the weaker lower trend line all the way down. Currently, it sits in no man's land, halfway between that lower trend line and the upper stronger (lunar month) trend line that is now 162.

So halfway there on the screen; neither up nor down.

Yes Stoodio, that’s 4 straight-out trading days where Rhodium has risen consecutively; if it’s not careful it’ll start a new trend, LOL!

However, Rh also last rose 4 days consecutively by the close of August, then promptly did a further stinky dump leading from then, down to the apparent floor on 15th Sept @ $11,250 and now 4 trading days later, rising to sitting @ $13,400

It’ll do for now.

Also for circa 4 days, nay 5 days including today, the SP appears to have fallen in love with 87p. On each of the past 5 trading days the SP either closed at 87 or opened at 87. It varied how far it travelled to the opposite end of each day, but have yet to see an open or close away from 87 since Wednesday of last week!

Could be forming a flat base which have a reputation for ending, more often than not, bullishly.

Nothing wrong with guesstimates of 140, or those below £1 in the 80’s, or £2. We all need to be open to diametrically opposing views to test our assumptions.

The old cyclical tables I had (before July/August exploded in my face rendering my headless body something like the cat Scratchy in the Simpsons) showed £2 by January next year, so smiled when I read that £2 estimate below. However, after inputting the actual reality prices as each month has moved on, the table (with the old probability % calcs in place, for the remaining months now show the SP only closing in the lowly 100’s at circa 104/105 by end of this year.

- Whatever, closer to home I’m sticking to September to close lower than it opened. Should September do what it’s not fond of doing in September and close higher, then this chip damage is rendering all estimates under: anything now possible.

So, 140, 200 or 80’s, is all grist to the mill for me. As IMO it’s more a case of the market trying to find an SP level it’s comfortable with, whilst the chip crises recovery rages on.

- A sentiment-driven price whilst the crisis develops.
- Another sentiment-driven price for when that crisis dissipates away.

There isn’t a “one price” in these conditions :)

I’m not expecting a return to what once was (anchoring) any time soon, at least not until the chip issues are resolved.

( Concludes - > )

. . . All in all, It's heartening to see the 50% Fibbo level of 150/151 stand its ground, as the bears couldn't even kiss it. (152, I think, was as much strength as the bears could muster).

However; much as I want to top-up, I am forbidden to do so by my self-imposed terms of my chosen strategy, and that is to only ever top-up once the trends have crossed to the upside. So if we have seen the floor of this retrace (October, the start of better conditions for BT IMO, is only a little over week away) then I can't gamble, but must wait for my short term trends to cross to the upside, they too like the indicators, look like they are slowly turning & looking slightly upwards.

All-in-all a potentiality for the better.

" Mentions a level of 164 as being that of change of trend
Thoughts Velo? "

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Hi Ally,

Double-edged sword that 164. But I broadly agree with the media analyst.

( Noticed before when he's freelancing on other sites that his and my procrastinations usually tie up in alignment. His view is usually my view, and my view I then afterwards often read him spouting similar views).

164 is merely the 38.2% Fibbo level.
At the moment it may act as resistance, and slap the SP back down; but should the SP hop over it, then his assertion that the SP owning the space above 164 means the SP is no longer, as he comments "likely remain in a bearish down trend", but will instead become as he says: invalid.

And 164 would then reverse polarity and act as a support just like the 150/151 area has done.

Broadly agree with him, but prefer the trend lines to have crossed to the upside, and if they haven't & should 164 be taken by the SP, I would be holding my breath until the trend lines did cross to the upside.

So, some pointers if that's feasible:

* All indicators are twitching, and rising from slumber; some of the early birds are up and away already, but more confirmation needed from the others, as seen these false positives before.

* The first of the flibberty-gibbet trend lines have crossed to the upside into bullish territory. But bear in mind that trend is very hyper, and easily led astray.
(The short term trend line; my weapon of choice is, as the analyst says still bearish, although I see he's using trend lines that are closer to intermediate level, so tougher to get them to swing round at the drop of a hat as they're still bearish too - but that easily led-astray Ultra Short Term Minor trend is already away flying with the larks)

* That extremely high Daily Trading Volume was bullish as seen on last Friday
- was so high-volume, that had to go back 5 years to find a greater volume day
- back to v early 2017 and that was a bearish volume, so would need to go back further to find a greater volume that was rated bullish.

And what's being seen now, appertains to Fleccy's recent posts of large Total Volume, off book volume and my assertion that it would all be picked up by the MM's in adjusting the SP "eventually".
Continued buying is feeding through from that mega volume day, as what a jump from sliding back to mid 154/5's the other day to now knocking on the door of the 160's :)

* Finally, after dithering and dallying, the extended Oversold Condition has slowly been easing up out of it, now heralds bullishness (usually) thus terminating that condition and is making good progress away to 'normal' trading channels and away from extreme ratings.
I did post the other day that terminating Oversold Condition usually results either in a temporary uplift or becomes strong enough for a trend reversal. (They're best acted upon in a generally "long term" bullish stock).

All in all, It's hea

(Concludes next

Yes some, Ally. Try and get free in next hour or so.

PS. Surprised no one commented on the SP up in the 160's for awhile yesterday.

Ahh Seen that disaster movie! It had Pierce Brosnan in it - Dante's Peak.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8HNlhVbGzY

Same white houses too.
That's what all those extras in the Alpha Tango jackets left over from 'The Bill' were waiting and looking out for - Pierce Brosnan; he'll tell 'em what to do.

" There's been no effect at all from semiconductor supply issues.."

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I'm of the opinion, whether telecommunications stocks have fared well or otherwise, that the market is tainting all in the industry with the same brush during the length of time before a recovery in the micro chips crisis is seen.

Therefore as this pullback is more market sentiment related than CLX fundamentals related, I'm not expecting anything bullish from the SP for some time yet.