Member Info for Velo

Yes, I did read a snippet somewhere, that a few of the BOD (or was it key fund investors?) - and only a few, had advised investors to stand by and not rush to sell as they were going to try for a better offer improvement.

Yep, and that New York markets price was picked up by Hong Kong overnight and they've run it up to 17,900.
- London opens for Rh in a couple of minutes at 9am, so that will be interesting.

In any other circumstances, the single sentence copy/pasted below from today's trading update RNS, would be a cause for celebration and a re-rating of the stock - and SP-wise the righting of the wrongs in a lowly SP.
Instead it feels like a taunt as in - but you won't be around to enjoy the fruits of that recovery, as I'm bagging it all for myself:

---------
" The Board therefore now considers it likely that the Group's performance for the year ending 31 October 2022 will exceed its previous expectations, assuming COVID-19 related restrictions are not reimposed."
---------

This continuing drop in the SP is getting well out of hand now. It didn’t help when no reason for the share sale was offered.

He didn’t say he sold to give the proceeds to family members.
It’s not because he said he’ll be in his mid 70’s in a couple of years
- so sold for tax reasons.

Those were made up and postulated out of thin air by posters on here.

Over the years I’m used to hearing:
Oh it’ll be for a daughter’s wedding,
or a swimming pool,
or a new house
– none of which have ever transpired, just wishful thinking by various investors.

Here’s what he did say – nothing.

See the quote that now follows from the news agency on the ‘Share News’ button on this site:

“ JD Sports gave no reason for the share disposal. “

No reason; then what to think?
That maybe he’s found a better investment for his money than leaving it in JD?

So, I looked further for other reasons for the retrace and found this on the 12th January trading update, a day before he sold:

“ Total revenues for the twenty-two week period to 1 January 2022 in the Group's like for like businesses were more than 10% ahead of the same period in 2020 with an equally positive performance across the Black Friday and Christmas period. “

10% ahead? Excellent. Commendable.
Now check out the market’s expectations.

The market guidance forecast is for Revenue of £8.418bn
Net Profit forecast is for £605m

That’s incredibly good as last year’s Revenue was an all-time high of £6.167bn
And last year’s Net Profit achieved was £224m

That means Revenue is expected to be 36% greater this year, than last year.

But the statement on the 12th says things are going well as currently “more than 10% ahead”.

Shouldn’t that be more than say, 20% ? ? ?
or 30% ahead?
- if 36% is required to achieve guidance forecasts?

10% ahead just won’t cut it.

Net profit is calling for a triple digit % gain.

So, I’m wondering if the consequences of that ‘more than 10% ahead’ statement is the main reason for the market's retrace in the SP, and the 50%+ sale in Cowgill'ss stockholding the second reason, and not the sole reason?

I’ve got to either double down and top-up whilst “cheap”
or if I remain no longer confident - sell (for a small loss).
Will be giving this some more thought as no longer that confident about my investment.

Been looking into the two sellers.

Warburg Pincus LLC is on the books before this sale as holding 5% of AAF stock! (4.8% actually).

As the sale represents 1.5% of AAF stock, then Warburg still has a lot of firepower left to go.
(Thought it would have been a 100% sale if it's because they are prevented by mandate from holding FTSE100 stocks in their funds).

But that's not the half of it.

Tried to look up Morning Star's holding and no trace of them.

If anyone has a fuller ID name of MorningStar's fund, I'd appreciate you posting it so I can look up their holding too. Maybe they list by an alternative name?

Whatever 58 million shares were sold. But Warburg held 187.9m before this sale and I have yet to find Morningstar's likely amount for sale.

All in all, if Warburg is not finished selling, then they have a ton of firepower left to sell more if they so desire so in the near future.

Back in April, the fall in price wasn't over in a day - it fell for weeks. However, Is this a case of deploying that infamous quote of "But it's different this time"?

Will it, be different?

Confirmed P/Cheese.

After 7 straight trading days of each 16,850, JM's site shows a rise from that string of 16850's up to 17,100 today.

We got a tuppence rise on the SP out of it anyway :)

" .. . . However, the market reaction to the trading update is still not yet a settled issue, as IMO the SP has been holding back from further breaking below intraday supports for the past 2 days. (See my post after this)"
----------------------------

- That means this post - not the 'part 2' post further below.

'

The close tonight was the lesser of 2 evils, so although it tilts towards bearishness for Friday, tomorrow's calcs throws up interesting and unusual intraday supports and resistances from the intraday calcs I use ( pivot points).

Unusually I'm getting repeat levels of the same suggestions for resistance and supports. A double layer of 92's and 93's. Double-checked as it is late, but it stands.
And it's this:

Closing again on 92 heralds an attempt on pushing even further south on Monday IMO.

However, the same effect but this time bullish, can be seen for tomorrow only, for 93's.

Closing on 93 minimum, would herald that was the floor seen over the past 2 days and from Monday would be the start of a modest rise out of the lower end of the 90's.

92 or 93? Which is it to be - The final showdown?

So close as to be meaningless - just a 1p apart, and yet they've been dancing around, avoiding each other for days, now the main bout - on Friday?

Must add, not a single wisp of breeze supports anything bullish whatsoever.
All and everything points to continuing bearish behaviour in the SP.
Even my beloved trendlines if they could speak, would say you're mad to think anything other than that the bears now rule.

So here I am, strolling along the shoreline . . .

(Concludes part 2)

. . . He's a damn good analyst and I intend adding his books to my collections, if I can get them cheap enough/or by free PDF downloads :)

”Looks like it will stagnate for many months ahead”
------------
The only question is what the market deems is a fair value whilst the chip situation rages on. As negative production/processing issues tend to get magnified to extreme by the market.

The H1 with the IFRS tax thingies adjusted, will be published on 21st February.
It's an opportunity for sensible forecasts to be made for H2 as the current forecast looks too ambitious to me, detracting and hindering the price from attempting fair value in the circumstances and underrates the chip issues timeline recovery.

Revenue and Net profit will impress on their own this year IMO (Will almost certainly be the 2nd highest ever trading result ever achieved in SLP's history
- but is being overshadowed (as it was with this Q2) due to ambitiously high forecast targets, making H2 now look unattainable.

Whatever- I will be unbearably bullish when the 200 day trend gets tamed; and not until then - like it was for 5 years solid before last summer threw a spanner in the works. So, it is possible.

But who knows anything for sure?

(Part 1 of 2)

(IC152 - Your post is in all probability a good bet on a consensus view held by many invested in SLP, so some of your points worth exploring further):
-----------------

“I guess it’s the bears winning Velo.“
------------
– It would appear so . . . . . . . for the moment.

However, the market reaction to the trading update is still not yet a settled issue, as from my POV the SP is holding back from further breaking below intraday supports for the past 2 days. (See my post after this).
Neither am I ruling out a decently fuelled counter challenge before February is out, whether that turns out to be short-lived or otherwise never occurs. It won’t be settled in 24 hours, so another day or so before agreeing just another false positive that came to nothing.

“Fundamentals aside, this is an unloved share”
------------
- Yes, The P/E has consistently been so low, and so undervalued, even when compared to the historically low P/E's for the PGM stocks, that a case can easily be made to support that view, as it's definitely been unloved since last summer all the way from the ATH peak in May and continues bearishly, still.
Prior to May of last year it had enjoyed 5 years of explosive growth in the SP, despite a terrible looking P/E ratio all that time too.
However, The Short Term trends support your view that's for sure, which have just reverted to the bearish side again after losing their recent bullish grip.

In the meantime, I can't argue with the trends.
So I'm effectively left strolling along the shoreline, whilst the trends do their thing, I'm looking into rockpools and under rocks for starfish and crabs and occasionally turning up the odd pivot points and shrieking: Oh look a bullish candlestick too, here and there, in the hope they are foreruners of the next trend change.
But alas, nothing can grow or prosper whilst all is under the 200 day trendline.
I shouldn't be holding any stock under the 200 day trend, but here I am, breaking my own rules, as the 200 grows worse and worse in comparison to the vicinity of the SP.

"The £1.40 . . . seems many quarters away".
------------
- What price do you offer instead then? :)
Although anyone fearing £1.40 is now unobtainable has my sympathy - but the fat lady has yet to sing.
So anyone proposing say 80-odd or 140-odd are viewed equally by me as my belief is Sentiment alone dictates all. And I primarily use trends to decipher sentiment.

“ST has been reducing his target price and seems a little out of touch on this one."
------------
Well price IS the downfall of all credible analysts. They should stay away from price.
I've found good analysts can be pretty accurate on revenue/net profits et all, but when it comes to price, oh boy - those (including us :) who engage in it, pay the price of tempting the gods.
He's a damn good analyst and I intend adding his books to my collections if I can get them cheap enough/or by free PDF downloads :)

( Part 2 follows >

Most sneer upon hearing Edison with their free-to-view stock analysis that are paid for by the company being reviewed, as generally they are unrelentingly positive, with compromised negatives. Hence they major on the positives and are lean on the negatives as they’d lose clients.

For instance, in their latest analysis (yesterday Feb 2nd) there’s no mention of the continuing poor quality feed being received by SLP for Rhodium processing, or the floods, but instead, quite an upbeat analysis.

However, as their copy is client-paid-for, they’re not going to publish anything embarrassing and unsubstantiated, that would later have to be publicly denied by their client, would they?

And that’s why I highlight here, as it is they, Edison, who answer the question over a windfall dividend. Not only do they suggest there WILL be a windfall dividend, but they also state it’ll be “payable” this April, here –
----------
. . . “The high cash balance supports a healthy dividend pay-out with the H1 22 results, and a windfall dividend is likely to be declared in February payable in April 2022.”
----------

So any posts querying whether there will or won’t be a windfall divi can now be answered with more confidence in the affirmative, than if any Tom, Dick or Harry Motley Fool type journo aired thoughts on the likelihood of any windfall dividends.

If you look for it online it’s headed under “Great Cost Control”
https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/great-cost-control/30453/

- Elsewhere the house broker’s analysis is listed under: “Mixed Bag On Q2 Results” (Is it that header that soured a rising sentiment on Monday?)

(Might squeeze in another short post or two, later on tonight).

Disappointing extended market response via the SP, to the trading update. Important not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, though.

THS had good results in their trading update the week before SLP’s, and fell very badly on the day of release too – but floored the next day – and ever since has reversed and been bullish only.

I remain optimistic (very) for February with today offering the potential of a floor IMO. Just potential – not probable or likely; as it is trending bearishly after all, but I liked today’s price action. It often precedes a reversal in trend.

If that’s just wishful thinking on my part, then closing on 92 or the 91’s on Thursday will IMO mean not yet, and the bearish retrace continues.

Am not confident in expecting a good performance tomorrow, Thursday, but a close above 93 or very near to 94 would be good enough to seal the deal for me to believe that reversal has commenced.
94 sounds a lot to ask for after this week's performance, but that's what it requires tomorrow.

As said, I liked today’s price action. It closed Neutral and thin (ie., a Doji) it is not good sign or helpful to bears in a downtrend. And to be even-handed, vice versa when it appears in a bullish uptrend. Could take several days yet, as it’s not a one day thing.

Couldn't make time this morning to post, but a mention in one post somewhere below of the House broker DOWNGRADING their former buy-rating for SLP down to a hold-rating, pole-axed me.

Couldn't find that downgrading to Hold-only other than the remaining buy-rating still in place. So, if anyone else can also confirm the downgrading to hold-only I would appreciate that confirmation, as such a change always, always, produces a fall in the SP whatever the stock in question.

Anyway the Q2 results added to the Q1 results show the following:

Q1 Revenue achieved = $29.8m . . . / Q2 Revenue = $37.9m
Q1 Net Profit achieved = $8.6m . . . / Q2 Net Profit = $15.5m

Thus:

H1 Revenue achieved for this year = $67.7m (85.2)
H1 Net Profit achieved for this year = $24.1m (57.9)

The bracketed figures are last year's achievement for H1. As expected, last year's are the greater amount. But that's not what the market is looking for, of course.

Don't have the figures for H1 market guidance expectations, but what's more important is what the market is looking for the full year, and currently that is -

------------------

Full year Market Revenue expectations for current year = $188m
Full year Net Profit expectations for current year = $75m

Therefore to meet full requirements, H2 must now produce:

H2 Revenue has to be circa = $120m
H2 Net Profit has to be circa = $50m

So in essence, the next 6 months must produce almost double the revenue achieved in H1, and similarly slightly more than double the Net Profit, just to achieve market guidance alone.

If correct, then the analysts must have forecast a dramatic improvement from January to June of this year in worldwide PGM prices rising, as the target looks too great to me.

Perhaps in a few weeks (or days) they will reapraise their forecasts for the full year in light of the H1 achieved in the current trading year, and a new lower market guidance will be issued?

If so, will it be taken as a profit warning? (disasterous if so) or just a reassement trading guidance update due to difficult circumstances beyond SLP's control?

Due to today's SP retrace, I'm taking that as a reaction to a downgrading in the rating, by brokers analysts. And if anyone else can confirm that lowered rating down to hold, then I'd expect further bearishness in the SP (short term).
I'm optimistic for a buoyant February for the SP, but now less than I'd previously expected, and an uplift in general market indices across the board to help things along, before February ends.

If the SP does continue to pullback for awhile, I'd expect it to be temporary only.

Hitting the road north next week, and not free until after the trading update, so putting a reminder to myself here, for quick access so when I can, I can readily compare the Q2 results to the current market expectations and fill in the blanks.
Q1 published last October, seems incredibly low when compared to the full year market expectations. ( Hope I've looked in the right columns :)

================

Q1 Revenue achieved = $29.8m . . . / Q2 Revenue = $
Q1 Net Profit achieved = $8.6m . . . / Q2 Net Profit = $

Thus:

H1 Revenue achieved for this year = $
H1 Net Profit achieved for this year = $

------------------

Full year Market Revenue expectations for current year = $188m
Full year Net Profit expectations for current year = $75m

Therefore to meet full requirements, H2 must now produce:

H2 Revenue has to be circa = $
H2 Net Profit has to be circa = $

Part 2 Concludes > > >
(Sorry about the length of this 2-parter missive)

-----------------

. . . The SP was a bit ropey beforehand yes, but ever since his latest announcement on Jan 13th the SP is intent on imitating a deep-diving submarine! And has yet to find the floor.

Time to do as every other company does on the stock market and separate the roles. Either he's the CEO or the chairman. Which???
He has to let one of those roles go. Whom does it benefit most to endure such an imposition?

This is the SP mess resulting from combining both roles. He is effectively running JD as his own fiefdom. His personal finances come first. Shareholders used to have a chairman and a BOD to look after our interests, but with fairly new, wet behind the ears,execs making up the BOD, who's looking after the shareholders interests?

Separate the Putin-like fiefdom into separate roles, and abide by the same guidelines the rest of the UK stock market abides by!

There's a damn good reason they're supposed to be separate roles.

(Part 1 of 2 )

" Geek, what was PC to do if his family needed the cash ? Go to his grave in . . . "

-----------------
Let's not be too quick to dismiss Geek's post. If I may:

What's Cowgill to do you ask?
Well for starters he's supposed to show financial integrity and governance by following regulatory guidance, and endorse good company governance by having two separate executive positions that:

a) Specifically protects the company's interests (a CEO)

and the other role

b) that specifically protects the interests of the shareholders (a Chairman of the board).

His current position of combining the two roles into one (for himnself) should only have been temporary. Instead, he's operating the company as a personal fiefdom
- all well and good until his personal dealings conflict with the company's interests. So who's interests is he best serving now?

1}
The CEO's main job description directive is to act in what's in the best interests of the company.

2)
The Chairman's role is as the spokesperson for the BOD; with the BOD expressly set-up as to represent the interests of the SHAREHOLDERS.

The results of not having those 2 distinct and separate roles (A CEO and a Chairman) is proof of the recent destruction of the share price currently, as he makes decisions in his own best interests and not the company's.
No one can legally stand up to him, if they had to, as he holds both positions!

That's untenable and at best should have been temporary only!

Google for analysis on this price decline and you'll find it's laid squarely on the big disinvestment's of the ahem... "Executive Chairman's" continuing sells and further disinvestment in the company - as he has found better investments elsewhere.

It's not just the 13th January he sold - he's been selling for the past year or two now, so it's not £21m he's "only" just sold but since the summer of 2020 to this current month he's sold a total of circa £53.5m.

He did have a small (by comparison) buy before this sell, amounting to £400k only -

5/06/20 - Sold £13.3m+
2/11/20 - Sold £19.2m+
19/7/21 - Buy £430k+
13/1/22 - Sold £21.3m+

Total = £53.5m SOLD

All commencing just 3 months after the big crash of 2020. He was buying regularly up until that event. But he ceased pronto after the March'20 crash.
--------------------------

(Leaves circa £18m+ as his current holdings??)

Obviously, he sees better returns elsewhere. A quick-witted response would be yes he's investing in the future of his family.
£53.5m? . . . . . - really?

His holding in JD is now sub £20m at something like £18m+odd (need to doublecheck that).

Whom did he discuss the manner and execution of these withdrawals with?
There's no other senior exec who has the authority to suggest an alternative execution of the withdrawals.

The SP was a bit ropey beforehand yes, but ever since his latest announcement on Jan 13th - the SP is intent on

(Part 2 Continues > > >)

Well international events took their toll on markets on Friday. The US was in a right mess by our close, and closed in an even worse mess by the time they closed there in the US.

And futures which closed at 10pm our time on Friday night were indicating to expect continuing bearish drama for Monday - for the UK indices as well as the US.

So no wonder SLP's performance, as well as the majority of stocks in the UK, underperformed on Friday.

My portfolios were at ATH's valuations overall, by Thursday close :)
They weren't 24 hours later, by Friday's close :(

Personally, I think it will all be shortlived and a recovery should be seen maybe as early as next week (using the S&P500 as my measuring stick, and the formula of: They-sneeze-and-we-catch-a-cold; because they are the world's dominant market and set the tone for the world).

However 4400-ish with an extreme 4300-ish was the target floor opinion I'm siding with, for the S&P500 before it recovers - and it closed a few single points below 4400 and continued further in that downward direction by the time futures closed in after-hours trading.

So (IMO) the floor is more-or-less in for the S&P500 as far as my opinion is concerned, so now looking for the precise floor, but the talking heads on the US TV finance channels are all over the shop. I think it's the floor area, at least for this spring, and will soon move strongly up and away - and take us with them! :)

Now, highly personal (IMO's etc.,) expectations by Monday's close for SLP -

Closing on 102 by close on Monday won't cut it.

That would be right on the pivot, meaning not bullish nor bearish, the market would be indicating it's undecided.

But closing on, or v near to 103, would be enough to tilt things towards the bullish side of things and I'd be optimistic going into Tuesday.

What would make me think the bears were gaining an upper hand?
- Closing on 100 by close - or worse, closing on 99 would definitely herald a bear case would likely come into play for Tuesday.
As said all IMO only, so form your own view.

100 isn't enough anymore, and 102 is now only rated as 'neutral'.

PS.
However, Trendlines for the most part, with a few exceptions, remain bullish on SLP

" Serge clearly realizes he could take this private again at some point, grow it and float it again in few years time. "

------------------------

That's exactly the plan he has, there can be no other reason.

He's counting on retail private investors behaving like the muthafukka-suckers he regards them as, and expects them to become victims of his burgalary - and the same ones who lap it all up and rebuy again when he's ready to relaunch. He's counting on PI's having the memory of a goldfish.

Take it private by all means - for a fair price
-but for 75fecki'n pence!!! Oh C'mon!!

75p outs him as a tw.- At

WTF?!?

What a rip-off! 75p my Rrrss!

After all the positive things said about Serge Crasnianski in the media over the years it turns out he'll rip-off private investors, if he sees a chance to exclude them from a now (by general consensus) reasonable opportunity to recover the SP from here. 75p is all investors will get.

He's stealing the company on the cheap - at the expense of long-term private investors. His name is mud to me. Just another financial robber.

75p is not a fair offer at all - It's akin to out and out thieving!@!!***!!!!!!!!!!

Somebody mentioned a £1

He's not offering that.

The only chance is that one of the 3 largest holders after Crasnianski gathers support to fight the rip-off steal price and gets him to pay a fairer price. But he's determined to steal the company 100% for himself now that he sees the road ahead is one of increasing revenue and earnings. And he wants investors out of the picture so he can profit from it 100% for himself. I wouldn't even sell for a measly £1. But it's going to be a forced privatisation so we'll be treated with contempt as suckers.

What a ****t he's turned out to be!

Thanks, Stoodio.
---------

So - tonight leaves just 1p more to make for a very special occasion. If achieved it would be a cause for celebration - should the SP end the week tomorrow by closing no less than 104.

That's because the predominant trend, the 200-day average, whilst steadily descending each day non-stop, sits tonight at just fractions over 103.

Don't know if it's going to be a clean kill for the SP to achieve or messy, with visits and returns too and fro over days/weeks before price learns to run free above the 200.

But should it close on 104 minimum tomorrow it will be a cause for genuine celebration.
- But would need another day of continuance to see the first trading day to open above the 200 as well as closing there too.
It's a two-part job as the maths dictates that the 200 will keep descending for a good while yet - which would give the SP a good runway chance to sit high and keep climbing above it, before the 200 turned northwards
- and came after the SP!

To complete the job, the 200-day trend will at some point rise bullishly and if all goes well, eventually with the SP keeping north of it, it delivers a full hand.

There are some funds and institutions that will not invest unless a stock is north of the 200. So that would commence opening the doors wide.

For the past 5 or 6 years, the pair (the SP & 200-day trend) meet up bearishly approx once per year with dire consequences for price.
No matter the stock - any price unfortunate enough that it finds itself falling to the extent that it slips below the 200 is a sign to get out - as there's always market sentiment fear and uncertainty around those occasions. Always!

PS. We've actually endured the 200's infamous "Death Cross".
Tomorrow could be the first step on the road to the eventual "Golden Cross".
They're named thus from hard-won experience.

This has been the worst fall below the 200 day trend since the big slide began straight after SLP launched on the market way back in 2011 and choked the life out of the SP back then, not for months but for years, all the way non-stop until 2015.

Anything is possible with the SP above the 200. Literally anything!

Nothing can be achieved as long as price lives below it.

Make tomorrow its last day there.

Typo!
" ... not H1 which will be revealed with the imminent Q1 update "

Should have read as " imminent Q2 update ", not Q1.