Member Info for Velo

Tipped on the weekend by one of Britain's fav tipsheets, that's why.

Fair point. Media rumour only at this point. Yet to be confirmed officially.

Well, what a truly, mealy-mouthed response (so far intraday) by the market towards the announcement of a new chairman for a major FTSE100 company.

Need to get the new Q2 update received and out the way.  It's all I can think of, as traditionally a high level  successor appointment confirmation is usually greeted more favourably.

Media has been strange in acquiesence towards a full quarter's net profit missing entirely in Q1. Thought I might have misunderstood the Q1 result.

However, maybe they're holding fire until they see what the new consensus is, for the effect it has on the remaining full year profits,  and thus no applause, via the SP, to greet the chairman announcement?

Sept 2020 " " between 9 to 10

- Oops!
Actually rose higher than 10 up as high as $12k by close of Sept.

BALANCE:

July 2020 Rhodium was on a rising trend of between 7 to 8
Aug 2020 " " " between 8 to 9
Sept 2020 " " between 9 to 10

So Rhodium holding at near sub-20 this year should in theory prevent 2021 Q1 from showing less profit than last year. So still a decent gain over 2020 Q1 expected.

If that's popular: "clean meat" - then all should start slipping it into their vocabulary on here, regularly - it's how urban myth/slang things gain traction.

( Concludes > > > )

. . . I'm not a Rhodium man so may have posted errors above, but the two best SLP month period of the year (July & Aug have never failed before as they are now - even in July last year when the SP descended to the 200 day trend - July and August performed above the average right in the middle of that descent - that SLP is experiencing again right now.

- But this year with the added total failure so far of those two key months!

Can't help ruminating that behind the scenes, much of this SP downtrend is not "Rhodium inspired random volatility" but the determined positioning of sellers. Currently the best the SP can do for August would now only be a rise up to the 120's by close of this month - IMO.
Which is a lot lower than previous expectations.

The feeling I have is that the current trading in this Q1 period is maintaining the failure in last year's Q4 is darkening my view.

Should Q1 underperform, SLP will have to inform and guide the market. The consequences of that, don't bear thinking about.

Someone tell me I've got this all back to front and it's the sudden return of an outburst of afternoon sunshine, that has gone to my head?

Concerned about the annual trading results published in a couple of weeks?
I'm not, as overall they should still show enviable gains over last year.

- No, I'm much, much, more concerned about this new Q1 trading period of the new trading year, that commenced on July 1st.

Should this SP downtrend persist to the end of August then just a week before they publish the annual results they will also already know 2/3rd's of the Q1 period performance of this new 2021/22 trading year. Are they connected?

- Am I unnecessarily worrying about actual trading conditions in the new Q1 by taking my lead from the Q1's SP performance?

One shouldn't, but long experience nearly always marries up a declining SP with eventual declining trading results.
And should Q1 continue into its concluding third month of September underperforming, then my big fear is that in advising the market of an under performance to previous market guidance, it would be taken as that terrible terror, of all investing terrors and sins
- waking up to a profit warning!

Rhodium contributes 60% to the bottom line (please correct me if I'm in error there). There have been 4 major upsets in living memory in modern Rhodium market conditions.

This downtrend is supposed to be (IMO) only a marry-up with the powerful 200 day trend. But what if the decline in Rhodium is only consolidating before continuing southward?

Fantastic July and August for the past 5 years, set up the commencement of each new year in grand fashion. If Q4 trading achievements are maintained in Q1, then factually we would be looking at the first-ever worst decline by comparison against the prior year since 2016 !

I mentioned 4 great upsets in Rhodium history because what if this is just the gentle start of such another event?

It all, all of it, hinges on the automobile industry. A substitute for Rhodium will surely come to light one day in the near future, yes? Ever since Rhodium took the position of the third catalyst in triple catalytic converters, 80% of all Rhodium world production is now taken up by the automobile industry alone.

Electric automobiles will be a watershed moment for Rhodium when (if) the whole world takes up full mandatory electric vehicles only.

Was it only early last year that Rhodium had risen startlingly to an ATH of 11,000? Now here we are lamenting the damage that near to just under 20,000 is doing to PGM companies performance. These are all, near-all-time new highs, yet we think it should go back up to Guinness book of records territory, higher as the ceased production in some quarters will start back up soon, that's if the chip manufacturers get their act together.

I'm not a Rhodium man so may have posted errors above, but the two best SLP month period of the year (July & Aug) have never failed before as they are now doing - even in July last year when the SP descended to the 200 day trend -

( Continues > > > )

Well, that's stolen my thunder in my initial post here, GV/Hunter.

That's exactly what I posted elsewhere today, to an ANIC holder elsewhere just shortly after the time of your post.
- The sub heading in your link: Stop calling it lab meat, (can't read the rest as it's behind a paywall). So will lazily copy/paste my prior post -
---------------

" Ha ha,
Good guess that it's Jim Mellon's Agronomic's that I'm waiting to cease pulling back before taking a position. A small position then will trade the Rrrs off it, and build from there. Looked at a couple of posts on there, didn't see you, so that's a surprise.

I'm about to place my first post on there telling them they're hindering the industry by using Frankenstein names to label this fledgling industry, and also suggest what it should be called instead, with all of my 5 minutes experience in (stem) cell meat :) :)

Lab meat? Don't they realise that and 'cultured' meat (and the rest, cultivated meat etc.,) sound to the person in the street like they'll grow a third eye in the middle of their forehead 20 years from now if they eat it regularly?

Hee! Nothing like a newbie telling the experienced they've got it all wrong and they should be doing this instead of that, eh? LOL!

Any idea when their June ending full results are published? Took them 6 months last year to do so. "

----------------

I was going to suggest playing around with the words organic, free range, and earth environment.
Whatever, there's already a slight opposition building to this new industry. A professor recently said he's worried about the future of "our children" (emotive choice of words by the prof) that animal meat contains vitamin B ( and something else - can't find the article) and that he wasn't supporting cultured meat until the industry provides reassurance that the vitamins and other health things are retained in the lab production process).

Only just discovered in trying to find that article that opponents are referring to it as: Frankenmeat !

In other words the current industry labels for this emerging industry plays right into the hands of its opponents.

Ha ha,
Good guess that it's Jim Mellon's Agronomic's that I'm waiting to cease pulling back before taking a position. A small position then will trade the Rrrs off it, and build from there. Looked at a couple of posts on there, didn't see you, so that's a surprise.

I'm about to place my first post on there telling them they're hindering the industry by using Frankenstein names to label this fledgling industry, and also suggest what it should be called instead with all of my 5 minutes experience in stem cell meat:) :)

Lab meat? Don't they realise that and 'cultured' meat (and the rest) sound to the person in the street like they'll grow a third eye in their forehead 20 years from now if they eat it regularly?

Heee! Nothing like a newbie telling the experienced they've got it all wrong and they should be doing this instead of that, eh? LOL!

Any idea when their June ending full results are published? Took them 6 months last year to do so.

ATYM:

Couldn't agree more Fishy - on fundamentals alone.

Fantastically undervalued, with this year appearing on course as it's best ever, and next year (and the year after forecast to be staggering increases) - yet the forward PE ratio is well under the industry average at only P/E 3.79 !

So it's cheap to buy and you wouldn't be overpaying.

It doesn't have the Hollywood royalty back-history of outstanding SP performance that makes SLP the king though, none of them do;
as since 2016, SLP has shone brightly SP-wise; whilst ATYM, THS, JLP have all done the opposite - historically.

It had been trending a little erratically, but currently bullish, and it has recently jumped back over and above the mighty 200 day trend and climbing clear of it once again - all to the good.

So, with that recent bullish trend would I buy now?

Thumbnail summary:

It has cracking fundamentals, is currently trending bullishly, but I wouldn't buy it until November 1st, which gives plenty of time to decide if the bull trend endures ( and if it does, then you can thus buy sooner rather than later ) and then after Nove 1st, hold right through until Feb 1st 2022, bank the gains, then recalibrate further for 2022 before reinvesting.

Tempted :) But my next move is into lab grown cell-meat/food.

IMO.

Well, I think all your estimates for Monday close so far, are on the ball, IMO.

Candlesticks are quietly hinting at bullishness to come (see ultra short term trend also) and have just run some pivot point calcs and yes, I agree so far, I'm seeing higher half of 170's with perhaps no further than 181 at extreme.

So I'd settle for the higher range 170's by close.

The indicators are hinting at bullishness only, but the Crozier news is the catralyst to turn the hints into action on Monday.

Just his announcement alone, should do it :)

Then at the end of the week is the analysrts update - and I just don't know how they're going to play this Q1 disappointment. Media seem, so far, quite relaxed about it though.

Many thanks to those who reiterated the extreme risks in my Catch A Falling Knife post. It's true. It's pure gunfight at the OK coral. Fancy strapping on a pair of pistol's - only to look up and see the gunfighter facing you is Clint Eastwood, twirling a thin cigar in his mouth? It can be that bad :)

The reason I replied was an attempt to dispel any notions that Drahi is somehow only ever going to buy only. He can maintain his position and of it aids his needs sell too.

I'm quite certain the other 12% holder DT, has been engaging in those tactics via their hedge fund, whilst maintaining their holding.

" Trends only really matter if you're a Day Trader, or someone with a limited time window and a need to release capital. "

--------------------

Never usually reply on 'trends' as people's opinions are opinions, and that's that:)

But oh Fleccy, had you said best used for - and then the list you mentioned, I would have read and moved on, but you said "Only really matter for..."

Not true! For years I've been saying BT's downtrend was "Oak-like strong in it's descent" That was using 5 year and 10 year and 20 year charts over daily time frames, weekly and monthly timeframes on the ultra long term trend. And I posted that refrain for years.

I saw similar trend lines being used on TV interviews with pandemic experts showing how the situation may not be as bad as it feels when the spread of Covid is measured on exponential trendlines ( but that medical expert used scatter point graphs, but still EMA trends are EMA - as used on the stock market).

Not fussed by anyone disliking "trends" - seriously that's okay by me - more than one way to skin a cat on the stock market, right? :)

But only of benefit to those in your list? - Neah, no way :)
- It's far, far, wider than that.

But not a position I'm willing to defend. So, ending here as I never defend my methodologies; as anyone can say and is free to say, what they like or dislike in investing :)

Why I was delighted to read of Adam Crozier as the winning choice for chairman :)

-----------------------------------------------

1) Back in the day, he was garnering a reputation as something of a turnaround specialist. He had the Midas, golden touch at ITV.

2) He also had a reputation of not outstaying his welcome and often left companies voluntarily of his own accord. Unfortunately, they all seemed to perish on the vine after he departed suggesting he preferred to leave before the proverbial s- h!t, hit the fans.

3) After he left ITV a little voice in my head was saying now sell, but I didn't as the share was performing nicely. Within a short time thereafter (6 months to a year later?) ITV literally fell apart, never truly recovering - SP-wise.

Summary:
Hoping he'll bring that Midas touch to BT's SP. But won't be surprised if he leaves his tenure earlier than expected.
If that's still the case, then be warned: his future departure is a mythic, urban legend, and a warning. This is not a guy who hangs around to face the bad music. He likes to leave on a high note beforehand; and devil take the hindmost.

IMO

PS. Would be grateful to any personal opinions anyone can post on Crozier as my recollections are out of date, and from way back in the day.

Was moseying about earlier in the day looking for the latest consensusal analysts update as it was due last weekend anyway - but nothing. That means they're delaying - well out of sequence now.
Not reading anything in to that, just to say I'm now expecting it next weekend. So that leaves a full week for the market unhindered to digest the new chairman choice for BT.

(Will post seperately a couple of other thoughts after this).

I'm genuinely apprehensive of the update when it comes out. But we'll see.
Just for updating purposes here's my review on the current state of affairs on the SP (Not the fundamentals of the business, but just the SP alone)

Your opinion may differ, as they say :)

============

BT currently -

200 Day ma trend . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Price to 200 Day ma trend .= BULLISH

Ultra-Long Term trend . . . = (Ignored for this update)
Long Term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium Term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish!
Short Term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish!
Ultra-Short Term trend . . . = Bearish! ( but suggesting potential change)

Tsk! Autocorrect! "There's NOW one"

- not: no one!

Will be back later more calmer but it's Sat so why not here goes. When the city reacts to BT bagging Crozier it'll be enough to destroy this downtrend and reset back into an uptrend. That's just pure emotion and joy talking. And to think they were thinking on that BBC woman who'd never Bern a CEO in a major company. There's no one person who can take the measure of Drahi, so any games by Drahi will be promptly outed.

This is simply stunning news.

Crozier?

- Never in this world! :) :)

My god! We're saved! We're saved! The true messiah has truly arrived.

Saved? Alright we're saved again.

No offence to the BOD but real genuine talent has arrived.

Back later.

( Concludes > > > )

. . . I sold mostly within days after each rise, and in all but one case the SP retreated just after I sold the latest new tranche. By multiplying the amount of shares by the new lowered average, the full amount of my original investment is revealed.
(The red loss always sits there staring right back at you).

But of course, one of those stocks is now at 50p and the other at 70p so a big ask to get them over a £1 (and unlikely any time soon).

(The 70p stock has risen from when I did this at then 55p; both stocks are now rated highly by Stockopedia, but I rate them both as sheer crap). Had them for years.

This downtrend could be ideal for DT's hedge fund to do that. Bit more difficult for Drahi as he's not under water. (He'd have to add and thus increase his average).
But at their level I'm unsure what effect their part-buying would have on the price. Spiky to say the least I imagine.

Someone (DT?) was doing it a lot during BT's 5 year downtrend as there were regular bullish mini breakouts - but they never lasted.

Who's to say DT's hedge fund carers, weren't making their owners "very happy to hold" doing that?

Summary:
Not repeat: NOT to be attempted unless you can seriously identify floors and breakouts.
And that is a task that never gets any easier - for anyone - pro's and PI's alike.