Member Info for Velo

" feel more relaxed now should 26's show up as only a token first buy at the mo'. "
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Typo! 16's - not 26!!! (JLP).

Craig - putting my trend follower's hat on, trend lines are looking toxic and evil for JLP, so if I was in that mode I'd have held back until they turned to the upside,
but 17's is the seasonal call as potentially the floor, and feel more relaxed now should 26's show up as only a token first buy at the mo'.

Seasonals were suggesting 129's for THS as the floor area so took 126 on sight, the other day. Again trend lines looking even more toxic on THS, so no telling with the energy in this market pullback. Anyway that's 2 first bites that have met initial targets, no complaints here so far. Need the 3rd (SLP) to get the whole swing trade show, on the road.

I'm comfortable so far :)

17's

They just offered me 17.94 (JLP) to buy so accepted. I'm no Cool Hand Luke, and succumbed at 17's and bought a first tranche.

Can relax somewhat now as just the big fish swing trade (SLP) "gonna need a bigger boat" to reel in to get this exercise down the quayside and out to sea, but going to busy after tonight for over a week, so will have to see how things turn out. Reckon I've got 2 or 3 days after June with SLP if nothing happens - then it's a case of SLP taking centre stage to a shout of "You're on!"

And right on cue 17's have just shown their face on JLP. Can't "buy" at 17's yet as currently 17.9 mid price.

Will make a first token buy if can get a 17 to buy,

- And SLP is tempting me with 'the area' but borrowing Stoodio's clangy titanium 'spheres' :) to force myself to wait until the bell on the last day of June. I'm not a cool dude, so will probably give in to temptation before the last day.

Quite so NewK.

I firmly expect the current predominant bull trend to reassert its authority in due course, as it's still in force.

But first, have to see if the stain of Freaky Friday is a one-day wonder in BT's case, and rectfied on Monday pronto, or whether it will take more of the week to shake off.

I'm going for the bulk of the week to shake the effects off, but that's just an opinion only.

" You will probably disagree with me, but..."
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Nothing contentious there to disagree with, except where you say narrative I'd say market sentinent.

My main concern going into next week, is pondering if Drahi truly has now ceased buying, whether that means the SP can continue at the exact same rate of growth without his buying power - or whether additional buyers will make up the shortfall in his now absent buying pressurre.

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. . . Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when three out of the four markets expire at the same time, or double witching, when two markets out of the four markets expire at the same time."
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Or my explanation - when markets go into (legal) crazy reversals: That's all you really need to know - Freaky Friday reversals.

So, when a company's stock makes a big run in either direction and is heavily traded on the options exchange, there's a point in which In-the-money "Call" premiums completely offset In-the-money "Put" premiums.

So, when a stock makes a big advance, there will be thousands (quite possibly hundreds of thousands) of In-the-money calls, while there'll be relatively few in-the-money puts.

If the Call premium side is weighed down to the greater, then the Put premium side would be way up in the air. That provides market makers an incentive to see that stock falls into options expiration day, minimizing the net payout of all those In-the-money calls and balancing the seesaw.

AND that's why it's called Quadruple/triple Witching hour Friday. It's in the MM's interests to minimise payouts by panicking holders. And that's what happened in all the markets, here and abroad, on Friday: see my copy-paste post of the major markets pullbacks on Friday.

In the process, what was trending up gets knocked down on the day and what was trending south gets a lift up on the day - in general, mostly.

When all monies are settled, slowly things revert to their former path. It's a known event and legal. It's all based on human sentiment reacting to type - to sell in panic when you feel the price is dropping/and buy vice versa on rises for FOMO.

So, as the SP was due to come out of overbought it got a helping hand on Friday before it was fully mature. It's so close to overbought (still premature) I'm tempted to think it's not over, pulling back to complete it's natural trajectory which this year has been the mid point of relative strength which is now lying in the mid 180's.

So, Fleccy, my initial reply to your post is the SP could continue pulling back next week, and not cease until it's natural level, after which it's back to game on.

Or . . . then there's the FOMO Drahi admirers who want a piece of the action, so it might stop the pullback dead, which would be a pity because the SP is extremely close to overbought and needs to 'breathe' - not be forced back early into a too acute uptrend - and thus back up into overbought condition.

Proper answer in the circumstances is: I don't really know, but will choose the double whammy of overbought with freaky Friday allowing the SP to complete it's mission.

So next week I plump for a continuation in the pullback.
Maximum downside? Mid 180's - then back to business.
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" Velo, the way BT's been climbing the most likely scenario will be similar to mid May "
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Indeed Fleccy, but possibly a small delay beforehand, . . . or maybe not?

Why? Two things.

1)
First up is the overbought condition that the SP has now (barely) descended out of, but remains in high bullish relative strength close too it.
Without the Quadruple/triple Witching hour Friday (more on that) I would have expected the SP to head for the average relative strength midway point as it did the last time in early May, where it peaked at circa low 170's whilst overbought, it matured and the SP then descended out from overbought but dropped no further than the midway relative strength border 50/50 and pulled back to the low 160's.

That's been the great thing about BT's new found strength - it hasn't dropped further than the midway point in relative strength terms on every occasion the SP has been overbought since last November. And there have been multiple cases as is the increased frequency of such events in all 'winning' bullish up trending stocks.
Conversely oversold a frequent occurrence in down trending bearish stocks, just haven't been present at all and now has set a new long-term record as the longest period in BT since 2016 to run without a single oversold occasion in over a year since March 2020! There was always an oversold on the horizon up till the March 2020 crash.

(An oversold if one ever occurs in BT will be a great buying opportunity like no other since November of last year!)

So this overbought condition, had it not been for Witching hour Friday, I would have expected to behave like the others and pulled back no further than the other conditions to mid way point which currently is residing in the mid 180's.
Also a buying opportunity in a bullish stock (but a short signal in a bearish stock).

Now because of freaky Friday I don't know what to expect next week.
I saw stocks on Friday that were in an uptrend turn bearish on Friday and a recently bearish stock of mine reverse and put on a 4% gain on Friday!

Now either it's all over with Friday or it lasts into next week. Don't know to be honest. Here's why -

2)
Quadruple Witching hour Friday (3rd Friday of the last month in every quarter):

A quote because I barely understand the options market myself - so go Google if needed:
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"Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures,
stock index options,
stock options,
and single stock futures expire simultaneously.
While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when

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. . . Or select Sharepad/Stockopedia then you can verify the veracity of their recommendations through either of those two platforms for veracity. And why give up your first love? You could add the IC Aplha tip sheet as well. (if deep pockets)
The best of both world's, although there is a daily one as pointed out in the Small Cap report on Stockopedia. I'm always surprised at 'some' of the poor selections some analysts recommend - after I run them through a proven investors platform.

Sharepad is for a particular taste. It's good, but I found it unappealing.

Stocko I took to instantly. Both are okay. You have to run a free test trial with each and see which you find more comfortable. No one can tell you that one is a clear winner over the other; only which they personally prefer.
If they were cars, both would do the job and both would take you to Scotland and back without breaking down.

However Stocko changed the layout somewhat recently. I remain on the old Stocko platform as I dislike their new offering. They are maintaining the old platform so that keeps me happy.

There are free trials with both of them - so you don't have to decide beforehand.

Finally, IMO, an investor without an investor platform to do the number crunching for you, is like a doctor who has never kept up to date with a single copy of the Lancet - behind the times, and at a disadvantage.

If you're serious about investing you have to have something that cuts the workload down. I don't think someone telling you what to think in a "tip sheet" is the answer. It means you'd need a constant babysitter for the rest of your life, because without them - you're stuck.

Be warned though - there is no escape - without an investor platform I'd be stuck too (........ . . . :) not really I have my trend following charts, but the platforms preselect good fundamentals for me to trend follow :)
.

Likewise Fishysaurus, another Stockopedia subscriber here - but wouldn't recommend Stockopedia just for the Small Cap report alone. I barely ever look at it!

But if I could only recommend Stocko for one reason only, it would have to be for the Piotroski F Score - it's indispensible - it's a single number but behind that single digit is a full accountancy package devised by a professor of finance back in the 1960's and updated through the years and is probably the single most indispensible aide you could use for global success if god decreed you could pick only one metric to use in investing!

For the previous poster, it's Paul Scott's Small Cap report. For me it's the F Score. So, Horses/courses :)

However, you first have to decide what is you're seeking. Is it another tip sheet like IC? Then by all means choose Stockopedia for Paul Scott's daily Small Cap report - but you already get that (gifted and talented investor/analyst/journalists) in the IC!

Had a look at the link you provided and the IC Alpha appears to be another method to extract money for even more personal opinions from gifted and talented investor journalists providing further tip sheets. One mentioned a screener and then tells the reader the top result without revealing the filter parameters set in the screener. You have to take his word for it. (By his word construction I feel he was using Stockopedia. Cast around but couldn't actually see a screener in the Alpha link. Maybe because I'm not a subscriber?)

But look what happens when you do your own. The screener provided by Stockopedia is breathtaking - literally; it's the most comprehensive I've ever come across. On first acquaintance, a newbie might throw their hands up in horror and sarcastically scream: What's this? I'm not a programmer!

But fear not, until ready (or never at all even) to DIY in the screener, you can go direct to the readymade screens based on the world's best ever millionaire/billionaire investors. And they all offer v decent results. I'm here in SLP because of one of those screens, not because of some bloke's opinion in a mag. In fact 10 guru screens all select SLP as a worthy candidate. (I've seen it much higher; when cream is good - it's often good everywhere :)

(Yes I know; a guru screen is still another guy's opinion, but tested to destruction over the years)

If you're tired of reading gifted investor/analysts in various media outlets, then choose either Sharepad or Stocko (it's a personal choice one is not better than the other) and thus complete DYOR and literally 'become' them - the guy's at the IC :)

Or by selecting Sharepad/Stockopedia then you can verify the veracity of t

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Correct NEWKOTB, as it's another calendar quarter this month end, but I like triple as it has more of a ring to it.

Not so confident about the 'resuming next week' line, as observing these for some years and as often as not, it can take a full week to work through on those stocks affected - seemingly out of the blue.

But due to BT's strength, I'm easily persuaded and prepared to give ground on that one :)

" Investing.com – The FTSE 100 finished the week with its worst day since 11th May as equity markets around the world came under selling pressure. There was widespread selling across the sectors..."

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Both THS & JLP had under performing days today, so no shame in that with regards to the above (Triple Witching hour Friday?)

- Whilst the King sported a 4%+ rise today :)

This is one fish that will give a real pleasure and a true test, if I can find a landing net big enough come the day (a week and a half away).

" Investing.com – The FTSE 100 finished the week with its worst day since 11th May as equity markets around the world came under selling pressure. There was widespread selling across the sectors.."

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See? - Triple Witching hour Friday!
Mess wid the missus horoscopes at your own risk.

Thought I had seen the odd SLP mention Craig - the last was on Monday. The poster concerned was enjoying a rise by JLP and THS whilst SLP was not, and asked perhaps SLP next?

So maybe the odd singular mention unless I'm confusing with the time the JLP guy who was arguing with Tiger on here and on THS, by opining that JLP was the better choice over the other two - in his view :)

JLP is on the radar for a small punt if 17's dares to stick its head above the parapet. Got until end of July and no later to get JLP @ 17's
- otherwise it's an 18 only by end of July latest to get aboard on the last train leaving JLP Central by then.

The bigger punt is due this month end, on SLP. I'm unfazed by this temporary rise, as I'll be participating no matter what, and much like Gladiator - I will have my vegenance in this month or the next :) :) :)

As suspected it's out now dated 18th June. Haven't the time now to dig in and compare to previous data on my spreadsheets as not on my desktop but posting from a tablet but here's the link anyway -

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/btgroup-consensus-18-jun-2021.pdf

Speedy glance shows a dismal Q1 Net profit which appears unusually bearish to me; they've continued the downbeat Q4 theme of last year into this year's Q1.

Big mistake because -
Well that's never worked out well for them in the past. Q1 always kicks the analysts consensus ass! :)

Year 1 forecast update for Revenue is on the floor as expected as this year is destined to be the absolute floor for Revenue with the lowest showing ever, but thereafter years 2 and 3 continue the y-o-y growth away from this year's expected floor.

Net profit for years 1, 2, and 3 continues the y-o-y theme of growth from the off. Although they have been picking negatively a little. But will dig deeper later on this evening.

My main reason for looking at this latest update was to see if the "vampire" effect had impacted the analysts thinking. Not one iota from this first glance. Maybe by the next update as I expect this update was 75% complete by the time Altice made its presence felt on BT's board.

Ha ha LOL! Yeah, both THS and JLP both ftenn post adversely against SLP when they encounter a downtrend in their stocks.

They mostly never post of comparing to each other, only against SLP. They want only the king's clothes.

P'S. My THS tranche is only "token" at the moment.

Thanks Mark. The mid price was showing as 126 but the spread was 124/128.
No way was I going to pay 128 !

So like SLP, it's margin spread can be massive. So was initially unimpressed. But tested it anyway, and waddya know - just like SLP what is actually offered sometimes is not too bad.
When 126 in the round was offered I didn't hesitate. And as an AIM stock I'm still in the 126's after costs.

So got it for the mid price :)

Mentioned 120's about THS last year as an "issue". When it passed the personal test I posted of (on here not THS) I failed to act on my own assessment.

This year it revisited 120's but don't know where my head was, as let it pass.

So corrected an old sore. Not expecting that great a performance to year end, but it'll do.
And depending on events I may yet top up before the end of this month, but the end of this month will be it for THS top-up's.

Just added THS at bang on 126. Happy with that. Theoritically I expect it might drift lower, so only a v small tranche in readiness. Haven't posted on THS board as not into THS per se as I am SLP.

Bought within my general account away from the seperate experimental acc awaitiing my SLP swing trade.

... Although casapinos does offer an intriguing get out of jail free, card.

- Yeah :) they put it in after both casa and I read only the 2 RNS's. We're innocent of all charges.