Member Info for Velo

Thank you Rojen3 (and Stoodio too, further below) it would be churlish not to accept well meant compliments, so thank you both, appreciated

- but wisdom?

Well that's a first, a new one on me :)

(I'm swivelling round looking to see if it was meant for someone else behind me, and turning back with a bewildered look that says: Who me? :)

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I'm busy for a full week and a half - after the end of next week, so radio silence as won't easily be able to post.
In the meantime, got a couple (not many) of pertinent posts I want to knock off between now and then.

If time later today, I'll start with some SP opinions that are Tuesday 1st June only, specific.

" It's the cumulative gain from beginning to end that is modest. "

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- It's the mean average of that entire period when distributed evenly across all the months in that period.

In case there's any confusion over my previous post on the spring months, a quick note on looking at the spring performance in the round.

March was the worst performing month, no growth.

So much so, it was worse than any computer cyclical projections, and that meant when you look at the whole period cumulatively, it pulls down the period noticeably.

The whole cumulative period from the first day of March to the last day of May (today) shows a 10% gain.

10% gain. okay, good.

Now although I originally said expect only modest gains to averagey performance, that 10% gain for the entire 3 months took just that to achieve - 3 full months.

Not in one day like the other day, but a full 3 months to cumulatively achieve. That's how much your holdings in SLP have increased overall from the beginning of March to currently, the end of May: a 10% gain from start to finish.

So another way of saying that - is that only modest gains per month equivalent to just over circa 3%+ per month was achieved when in the star months it was many multiples of that for each of the star months; hence my 'modest gains' posts for that period.

It's the cumulative gain from beginning to end that is modest.

Oh thank goodness - the only correct answer. Alien parrallel universe Stoodio's would have fallen into the trap and said human flesh.

Phew, I'm home. Whilst I was in a parallel universe they tried to persuade me that the SP had been up to 137, but I knew no - not today, back on earth it isn't.

It's good to be home.

Stoodio, not quite sure I've been returned to the same Earth World Simulation environment. There's a test that will decide if I am in the right one.

Only you can solve the mystery with a question you must answer, so I can be sure.

If you are the real Stoodio, and not a parallel universe alien copy of Stoodio, please tell me in this earth simulation model
- what are your testicles made of?

Holey Moley! I don't believe it!

A close of 131 !?!

My own gear is showing a close of 132.5 so thought I'd lost it outright, but checked with the London Stock Exchange and they're showing 131 too.
- the same as this site!

So 131 close for May, it is.

After all that today? You wouldn't have thought so after that magnificent intraday 137 would you?

Anyway re-did all for March, April & May performance - and things look a little better than my assertion from way back for the spring months performing only 'modestly' to averagey.

However, over the months I appear to have morphed from March spring through to June as all averagey, modest months - to March through to May only, so shouldn't have completely separated June so much recently - it's part of the original set.

Because all I was seeking was validation that for Jan/Feb & Jul/Aug to be so spectacularly outstanding, all the remaining months must, by definition, be unremarkable to averagey. So, I am withholding judgement until June is in - as per the original expectations; and measure from March through to June!

The tally of so-called averagey modest months is as follows:

March
= 8.1% x down! Too severe a fall to be average or a modest gain - so a big miss.

April
= A surprising 10.2% gain! Nothing average or modest about that either. Another miss.

May
= 5.2% gain. Okay just about stretch that to averagey/modest, but really 5% gain is okay, isn't it?

I think the original figures included June which (IMO only) is still on course for a double % performance downer.

However, if it performs as the spring months then perhaps I've been too harsh, or worse - made errors?

Whatever, my personal opinion as of tonight, despite May falling back pretty close to inline at the month's close to my prior assertion, is that the whole past 3 months as a cumulative set, aren't too bad at all.

Not stars like the Jan/Feb & July/Aug periods, but not the overall lacklustre performance I had thought.

Onwards to June!

PS.
Must be referenced that for all the months mentioned the % confidence ratings were dismally low for accuracy. And now as low as 0% for June!
Curious to see how June will turn out then.

" Anyone know where velo lives? "

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Ground Control to Major Velo
Take your protein pills and put your helmet on
Commencing countdown, engines on
Check ignition
Transmit in, on One Four Zero - over

This is Ground Control to Major Velo
You've really made the grade
And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
Now it's time to leave the capsule if you dare
Transmit in, on One Four Zero - over

This is Major Velo to Stoodio Ground Control
I'm stepping through the door
And I'm floating in a most peculiar way
And SLP looks very different today
And I'm sitting in a tin can
Far above the world
Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do about One Four Zero
Though I'm past one hundred thousand miles
I'm feeling very still and far from home
And I need to get back to Parallel Universe Simulation Earth One

This is Major Velo to Stoodio Ground Control
And there's nothing I . . .

. . . Radio silence . . . static . . .

. . .

Right out on some errands now and won't be near a screen until I'm back - after the close.

I'll know I've been returned to simulation parallel earth No:1 should the price close at 130. and fractions . . . at the most.

131 and above - and I'm in error for the month of May.
Or depends if v, very, close to 131 and can maybe make a split decision?

It's just started dropping out of overbought - straight after I posted from another parallel universe. Live mid price at circa 135 currently. Strange after holding overbought continuously since 9:30am to change right after my post. Ever get that feeling that your posts are being . . .

- Oh wake up for goodness sake! ! !

The SP has been in intraday overbought condition, and has remained in overbought since just before 9:30am this morning.
Heck of an over performance staying there without let-up.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are switching levers ready to throw into reverse at some point.

So far it's burst through and hopped over all meaningful intraday resistance points. It's entering gone beyond resistance, areas.

Once again I keep telling myself wake up ! You're in a dream - wake up!

137 ?

This is ridiculous.Somehow I've been accidentally nudged into a parallel universe by some sort of karma to teach me a lesson about saying 140 is not possible today.

The Karma is wrong
The parallel universe is wrong
And that locomotive steaming down on me at 90 mph is wrong.

Wake up it's a dream - get back to the first simulation parallel world - quick!!!

Velo's: Get Rich Quick with SLP guide in just 2 steps:

1) Buy at the beginning of January and sell at the end of February.

2) Buy at the beginning of July and sell at the end of August.

Available now on the LSE forums - free on a first come first served basis
- whilst stocks last!

140 by the end of the day?

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Nah! :) :) :)
Not possible today I'm afraid, not IMO.
- 140 is for another day (soon enough though).

I know it's a Double-Whammy weekend but that does not equate to open season on prices today :)

- Open season will be for June, where any price and anything goes ; literally - IMO.

Even the computers are hiding behind the sofa when it comes to June. They don't know what to think.
I'm busted for June except to lean on an underperforming month by the end of June.

" its £20 on ebay velo, ..."

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Eugh too much :)
- Seen it for £13/£15 (still too much for me) over the past year or two on eBay.

For clarity, I agree with the assertion on Phil Oakley's analyst credentials but have zero isues on the Simon Thompson assertion. Both are okay by me.

Found on here, this LSE site, it has been running a tad little hot on the mid price as live prices were on 129.5 all morning although I see it's now in synch at 129.5 (currently).

" On a more positive note, his fellow IC expert Phil Oakley IS the nuts in my view. His books is a MUST. (google it.) "

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Yeah, true; been well aware of his book (and his articles) for some considerable time now.

Will get his book one day - when a cheap offer comes up on eBay, skinflint that I am.

Not in a rush as his analytical methodologies are heavily slanted to further illumination when run through the Sharepad platform.

I'm a Stocko man myself, hence my lack of urgency in obtaining his book. Got too many as is, really.

But will get it, if ever on super-duper cheapo offer, secondhand.

Oh forgt this bit - post was so long I left off the 'pension" hint-tip reveal, for possible reasons why the 27th to the 6th period is often more bullish than not.

It's the same on both sides of the pond that 27th/6th period.

Salaried employees in company pension schemes have their pension contributions deducted from their monthly salries (even more so in the UK since the legally binding introduction of 100% national inclusivity for every full time working emplyee since workplace pensions were introduced - by law).

That means a wall of cash on a national scale gets shovelled into the direction of the pension funds near the end of each month when employees are paid.

The pension funds know this amount is headed their way in the exact same period every month of the year. From their mgmt/committee meetings, they already know how much is to be allocateed to bonds etc., and how much into equities. The decisions are pre-made before the monies arrive. Hence a positive period around the 27th up to the 6th at the end of each month s the pension funds move the money on.

That's the theory anyway.
A flood of money descending on the stock market every month from the pension funds.
Simples really - yes?

. . . on Friday!
It's the last trading day of May.

And I want my modest close to the month of May; thus locking the plan into overdrive leading up to the big money-shot in July through to August.
(I expect June to be a washout)
- But tsk! I've got Stoodio and the computers on my back to contend with for June.

Things are looking good for a continuance on Friday, but I think the SP progress might travel no further than 128/129 - at best, if that.

And should it start on the 130's tomorrow - Well! My jaw will start to drop. Let's not go there in May; it's a trap.

Here's why Friday WILL have additional help in being a positive day (refer back to the little 27th to June 6th quiz)
- Did you know along with all the Sell In May etc., stock market sayings - there's a stock market urban myth of:

The trading day BEFORE a Bank Holiday is ALWAYS bullish and the first trading day back AFTER the Bank Holiday is always bullish too?

2 points:

1)
Only it's not an urban myth. Check FTSE out this Friday and next Tuesday (SLP too :)

The reason it will work this month, is that every month, the period of the 27th to the 6th of every following month is usually, mostly, but not always, bullish too!
So it's a double whammy this time.

2)
(Again check it out from - today until 6th June) Not every single day will be positive, but overall, the prices on the 6th are often as not, temporarily higher than those on the prior 27th)

Look. it's like Tinkerbell - if you don't believe, it's not gonna happen is it?
Even the kids at the annual pantomime know that!

60 years of data was researched to find if it's possible or not, to time the market and it was discovered that there are 4 periods of varying length in every month, where 2 are bearish and 2 are bullish. In practice 3 of them can be quite weak and often they perform no better than random
- but one is head and shoulders above the other three periods - every month.

Wanna place a short spreadbet on FTSE for this weekend/next week? You'll lose the lot :)

(But unlikely to, if instead you go long).
Err upon reflection, don't take that as an invite. (Must put some small print in somewhere about past performance blah blah blah).

So my expectations of a modest gain for May comes under direct threat tomorrow (Thank goodness it's the last tradable day of May!

Which means Stoodio (Sssh, don't tell him) will get suckered into seeing a bullish start into the first week into June
- yes agreed, but I say wait until the 7th onwards :)

So, a positive day tomorrow, with no sign of the bullishness in SLP abating for a couple of days - but held up by a long weekend, before continuance.

This weekend the two urban myths collide and combine - it's a Bank Holiday and it's the 27th to the 6th period!

" Velo old boy, you’ll not be surprised to learn that I think July comes early this year, in June would you believe :) "

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You're only supposed to deploy your magic posts when the SP is languishing, Stoodio. That's not fair :(
If you're using your power when you shouldn't, the gods might smite thee.
With great power comes great responsibility; use it wisely :)

Actually both of us could be wrong and it's a range-bound nil movement month
- because the computers refuse to give a confidence rating for June - at all!

It's been 0% confidence for June all this year. And blanked out - to keep me out!
(Are the machines planning an invasion in June or something?)

They say impossible to garner a probability outcome. I've lifted the hood and can see they're hiding a double % drop for the month of June. Increased the data to 6 years and it improves better, but still to a high single % figures drop. And still the computers won't co-operate. Blanked out.

Every which way, I come up with circa a 10% drop for June - and in all cases the computer slaps a Tsk! Bah! 0% probability occurrence on my work of that happening!
(They can be a bit rude).

So, Stoodio, you could well be right, but for one thing - they slap a 0% probability rating on your bullish outcome for June too - LOL!

They are siding with no one.

It's as if they're saying: If we computers can't compute it - we're damned if you puny humans are gonna pull a fast one on us, so it's 0% points
- and I'm like, WTF! It's not the Eurovision song contest all over again you know!@!*
Feckin' null points! What good is that?

I'm sticking to my guns and going for a circa-ish 10%+ drop for June.

See you on the June battlefield then - come tooled up - but don't come looking for me - these computers will be hunting both of us, John Stoodio Connor.
They don't care who they nail first; they'll terminate any humans they find.
- Stay low. Stay alive.

(Any posters available in June stay loose - as we could need back-up in June; but come tooled-up anyway)

PS.
The machines say there are 5 x 100% high probability months of substantial gains occurring this year.

Jan & Feb = Check: that happened, didn't it.
July & August
and new for this year = November!

100% !
Now that's rare - 5 months of high conviction, high achieving months. Never seen that on any other stock; hence my interest in seasonal historical cyclicality in SLP only.

All 5 months with a 100% confidence 'will probably occur' sticker, stuck to them.

All the other remaining months I'm not supposed to poke my nose in, so I'm keen for May to close modestly at no higher at most than 129/130 (128 would be nice) and that would be one in the eye against the machines reluctance to rate, but who rate the remaining 7 months as v low % probability of occurring, with low % gains for each of those 7 'averagey' months, anyway.

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Couple of other random posts maybe/ if time, to follow :)

Last trading day of May tomorrow, so not expecting much further travel to the upside for remainder of today.

Any close above the mid 120's like that 127 up there currently, gives me the full Monty for spring (Match to May) as modest performance overall. And all is well.
Ha! :) that would be just nice, if Friday doesn't go steaming past 130 (or just as bad, if it dropped under 125 by Friday close). Otherwise all on track :)

With Joker-in-the-pack June, a separate issue.

From today 27th, to June 6th (excluding weekends B/hols etc.,) in isolation, could probabilistically, perform (as a sweeping generality) v nicely due to 2 conditions merging. Can you guess what they are?

Bank Holiday is one clue; the other is 60+ years of market data, but once you get the Bank Hol it could lead you to work out the second clue
. . . (cough: pensions?)
:)

That's the plan as I laid out earlier this year. With a cut-off, of buying by July 1st latest, and not to sell until the end of August or the day before results are announced in v early September. So multiple tranche buys up to a budgeted amount.

And all in a separate ISA account so I don't dilute my core holding. All public so a social experiment.

I couldn't participate in this morning's early low price as it's a random outside influence event and not part of the control months.