Member Info for Velo

Typo!
"after adding this Q4 update now reading as $161.883m for Revenue, a small miss against target forecast? "

Should have been $151.883m not $161.883m as posted in that para.

It's all correct where posted, just that sentence where I hit a '6' instead of a '5' even though it's correctly mentioned elsewhere in the post..

Time only to zero in on the top and bottom lines.

Today’s Q4 trading update doesn’t appear to line up with the in-house broker’s analyst’s pre-emptive publicised analysis of Q4 ahead of today’s publication.

Revenue and Net profit were never going to be greater than last year, but headlines of ‘best Q4 in 2 years’ did lead me to think that the Q4 would have performed better than prior market forecasts (maybe I’ve missed a market forecast?)
Because I’m looking at expectations of a full year market forecast expectations of Revenue - $163m
And
Net profit forecast expectations of $62m.

Instead, I find Revenue (barring any tax/depreciation, adjustments that may appear only in the Sept 8th full report) is after adding this Q4 update now reading as $161.883m for Revenue, a small miss against target forecast?

And Net profit for the full year of $59.342m, also a small miss against target forecast.

Was thinking the top line and the bottom line were heading to slightly beat forecasts, instead It looks to me like a miss on both.
The market response appears a little lacklustre too.

I’ve probably made an error somewhere, so will wait for the Sept 8th audited full results in case there’s bits and pieces of adjustments that are not shown in the achieved quarterly updates which I’ve used below –

REVENUE:
H1 = $69.056m
Q3 = $47.881m
Q4 = $34.946m

Full Year Revenue = $ 151.883m

NET PROFIT:
H1 = $24.360m
Q3 = $21.165m
Q4 = $13.817m

Full Year Net Profit = $ 59.342m

Just a post to admire the triple figure SP on display to the left :)
- And say to it: Hello old friend, long time no see :)

SP is a little overbought currently so I expect some consolidation issues around this level until the overhead supply dissapates away.

ThankQ, L/Leeds.

On the bright side both Over/Solds and Over/boughts are in the main, shortlived events.

(The SP was Overbought in April/May and is now the opposite - actively Oversold).

In this case, seller exhaustion will soon set in and the slightest buying will have a stronger than usual counter influence on the SP.

It's just that in a predominately downtrending stock, whilst O/Boughts are less common, O/Solds are 10 a penny. (ie., before long another one comes along).

Something like a good Trading/earnings update (H1 in a couple of weeks) can act as a catalyst to break that cycle.

Immediate concerns are to see if the SP can initially wind it's way back up to the 4.69 area before the predominant 200 day trend starts to really descend from that level and recommences to being predominately down-trending.
Doesn't sound a lot, it's a tiny amount even - but that's a big ask for the moment.

All depends on just how long the SP remains in the Oversold territory.
I'd guess a few days/or a week or two at most before lifting out of it somewhat/ a little.
(IMO only)

" Looks like CPX has run out of steam. Shame"
--------------

Have to concur. The SP is Overbought, and ready to pullback. ( IMO only ).
If you're convinced of better fortunes for CPX and the SP does go on to pullback somewhat, then regard it as nothing more than temporary zig-zagging along that route.

Should really let the week close fully but grabbing the time I have so here it is:
. . .

Well, the current SP of 4.55 (should it close the week on that) is definitely not a good place to be.

That places it underneath the most powerful of long-term predominant trends. No stock thrives when living beneath the predominant trend.

This is what I’m thinking -
At 4.55 all the gains made since late April have been claimed back by the market.

Good trading updates came out on April 19th. The market approved and the SP had already responded by lifting the SP from the 3.7-ish area up to 4.5 area (where the SP is today) by the publication date of the positive, bullish Q1 trading update. All good and tickety-boo so far.

Then by late April the SP was met on the last weekend of April by that phrase I saw in a post below of that: “Spring ramping”.
It was that spring ramping that first drew my attention to WBI.

But anyway, on the very first trading day (a Monday) after that media ramp the SP grew wings and took flight, flying all the way up to 6p! Over the next several days, it intraday’d as far high up, well into the 9p’s!

It was massively overbought at that sudden SP explosion and immediately started retracing quite heavily.
It’s been “misbehaving” for a couple of months and now looks as if (IMO only) the market has reclaimed the hype area occupied by the rise and returned the SP to the pre-start of the ‘Spring ramping’.

I did some projections should the SP fall further and wouldn’t be alarmed to see the SP fall as far as the 4.2-ish area – but no further.

If it does fall further than the 4.2 area, then I’d be at a loss to deduce anything further and would just follow the trend.

No reason to think the SP will fall further than the current 4.55 area either, as that fits in rather neatly at the nice rise the SP enjoyed after the bullish Q1 release on the 19th April – so that was a genuinely “earned” SP rise.

The SP rise that came after the release of the ramping campaign was not earned. It was speculation.

However, the good news is there is likely to be an excellent H1 trading release (Q2 has already confirmed it’s going to be excellent) sometime in the first half of August just mere weeks away, so doesn’t mean the SP will stay long at these lower levels.
That doesn’t mean a return to sprouting wings again, but hopefully a more measured response to improving trading updates at each release from the company.

Busy as hell so time only to record my delight at seeing 88p.

It's unimportant to SLP or anyone else, other than myself.
It's this month's opening price. So 'equals' now :)

July is under repair so the averages have dropped from double-figure gain expectancy in July, down to 5% for this year's offering.

So am keen for July NOT to close down compared to its month opening day.

As after last year, from a 100% certainty of July closing up to the month start, there's now a 25% chance of closing down ie., Averages show only 75% confidence of both July and August closing up on their respective month's opening. (I'll take those odds :)

Would like the low 90p's to appear and thus deliver the 5% gain for July, as it means August is more likely to follow suit but to a v much higher degree, although there remains a 25% downside risk to the close for August too.

Next up if July's target remains held to the month's close, is prior highs.

Have a series of those several 'easier' highs - which MUST be taken prisoner by the SP, before the more serious bout of a big dust-up with the first of the more Significant Prior Highs to beat (the very definition of stock on the move up).

Which "significant' high the SP falters against (if it does falter) will measure how much further the SP can travel before it hits market valuation perceptions for current conditions.

By the way, No:1 on the ladder - the Short-Term trend crossed to the upside today and is now bullish (so it was day and not days :) and has strengthed.

Eyes now on the next - the Intermediate trend, which whilst bearish, looks to be softening, and I'd say at the current rate of knots would take another month-ish or more to cross to the upside - (So, by close of August?)
PS. The day the Intermediate-trend turns bullish (whenever it occurs) is a genuine time for bunting, cartwheels and handstands. Because it serves notice on the larger tends.

And those Medium to Long-term trends (including the predominant 200 trend) remain unmoved, firmly bearish in outlook, looking down their noses at investors in pure disdain shaking their heads and sneering in dismissal at this emerging bull run breakout attempt.

July & August have tradditionally been great times to be an investor in SLP. Hoping to drop the phrase "have" and "been" after this year to "are always" :)

Midnight, just time for . . . .

“ How d'ya like that Velo? . . . “
------------------

- I like it a lot Stoodio :) A lot! Seriously strong day!

The SP led a merry dance over the past 48 hours but the SP came good today
- big time, strengthening this little bull run considerably in the process.
(In fact, the next (first) big rung on the ladder - the Short-Term trend has narrowed dramatically with that huge bull day today, and should in the coming day/s (even with modest movement) cross to the upside.

Still wouldn’t be a cause for celebration, that’s reserved for the next up – the Intermediate trend, but that’s looking as if it will take maybe weeks to turn – if there’s further to come.

Above that, the war-torn damage is all too visible in the bigger trends. Can’t ignore them. Their sad, long-faced, bear looks are all too visible. But can watch the bullish infection infect them, up through the chain in due process, as I'm pretty upbeat for a good week next week – and the full month of August too!

Next week (IMO) is looking good to go. Fully expect a nice victory lap into the home straight by next Friday. And then, further expecting even better work visible in August.

- Followed by the usual, the: Buy on the Rumour - and Sell on the News brigade, who always take command in September with this stock, as they’ve always done. So, need a good August in preparation for that event, as September, traditionally, always exacts a price after great results are published.

These stock market truisms are no myths. So, the SP nice and high by August/first week of September please, to deal with that particular issue.

Who'd have thought messing about in the 80's would bring such good cheer? :)

Bit of a sharper cut today. the 4.8's never got a look-in for the close. Bit nasty that.
Big day tomorrow, then.

Will the SP bounce strongly from here? (My first expectation, option).
Or will the SP go galavanting and a-carousing with the 4.6's mob?

Don't like the look of the late acceleration in this retrace.

“ Velo, that was your red day :) “
------------

Hi Stoodio,
Indeed, it was, but unfortunately followed up by another red day.
I’m giving plenty of room for optimism to run free this month as it leads up to what’s expected to be a good trading update by next Friday.

However, as the saying goes:
Be careful what you wish for
- I’m disappointed the past 2 bearish days (although low volume too) are larger in size when compared to the bullish days of all last week. My fears of this little bull tearaway, being a false-positive run, increase tonight.
Tomorrow will tell.

The thing is, the SP is currently overwhelmed by larger, longer-term trends that are firmly in the bearish camp than any other. Need some bigger catalyst than mere chance to change that.

One red day amongst a sea of small blues would have sufficed.
But as of tonight, it’s now a case of: Who let the dogs out? Who, who?

(Thought the gate was only wide enough for just one to escape).

Debatable now as to whatever the rest of the week brings
– but I’ll be more than disappointed if next week doesn’t run extremely well to the upside into the expected bullish Q4 trading update.

How times change :)
Not so long ago this was a dog of a stock.

Currently the balance sheet metrics score very highly in a variety of screeners. Look out for buy recommendations from IC, Shares mag, M/Fool and the like. There won't be a sour note against PHTM amongst them.
They take their cue from upbeat brokers analysts reports, and those brokers houses are all singing from the same hymn sheet - upbeat bullish on PHTM. They're all parroting - buy.

How sentiment changes.
No doubt the future sentiment will ebb and flow
- So enjoy the moment, whilst investors hold a 'winner'.

Some astonishing increases throughout the Interim trading result.

Brokers analysts giving a bullish thumbs-up in reports released this morning. Can't access them as behind a pay-wall but the subject header is v bullish in relating to it's contents sent to me by email.

SP already reflecting widespread market approval.

No need to seriously become concerned unless the SP drops BELOW THE 4.6-ish area.

After approx a month that price area becomes unimportant, and it would probably be a lower target, should the SP continue retracing for the foreseeable.

It could be quite dramatic.

Option 1)
Should the SP retrace lower to the 4.6 area I initially expect a strong rebound up and away as if the SP had touched an electrified barbed wire fence.

Option 2)
If I'm wrong then I expect a prolonged degeneration in the SP.

So it's important that the SP spends as little time as possible retracing to or below the 4.6 area.

Of course all the above all IMO only. Your opinion may differ.

Today, with the 9th trading day in a row also bullish, is encouraging - and leaves me cautiously optimistic. (Especially since it all originates from a straight bounce-off the SP hitting a new low in the mid 70’s).

Except that it's achieved for the most part, on low volume. Even today, the largest SP self-improvement day of the run, is also the lowest volume to date. Now that is not encouraging.

Another thing:
9 days of no red-day retraces is starting to head the whole lot into record-breaking territory. Should expect a red zig-zag, pullback day (temporary) as that’s a lot of blue for SLP whilst still in a predominant downtrend.

Personal targets:
Should this little bull run, more or less continue. – Then I’m targeting the low 90’s for the end of July; And if it does that, then I want to see if August commences repairing itself this year.
If so, then I’d like to see if the SP can close in the 107 area by the end of August – or at the very least 100.

All major trends as mentioned are still bearish so that’s still my ‘official’ outlook; bearish.
Have to repeat: Powerful trends in SLP are currently hellish bad.
I’d like to see how the SP handles its first red pullback day since 9 days ago, and see if this is a bull trap.

But if anything comes from this slow awakening and the SP does not turn out to be yet another false positive, then first up IMO, is the low 90’s by July close.
And that would make me stick my neck out for high singles over 100 by the end of August.

My personal targets (92/107) to be filed under: wishful musings.

" ... but my fear is this determined downtrend, in force since January..."
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Apologies. January? - Argggh!
Blethering nonsense.

I meant since early June. It's the heat I tell you - the heat!

Look at the SP close of the week to the commencement of the week.
Quietly simmering and coming up, unnoticed on the outside lane is a deceptively small but bullish ultra-short term trend forming within the SP.

If it continues next week it might start to gain the attention of the market. All major trends for SLP are bearish, yet the past several days have all microscopically risen steadily, stealthily, continually.

That ultra short term trend means... absolutely nothing at this stage and would need further continuation to the next larger degree trend (short term trend) to start a bit of a market-wide heads-up. Besides there's some heavy ambushes waiting in the 80's. So early days.

It appears to have got underway some days before the bullishly titled brokers pre-Q4 update hit the stands (haven't seen it myself only the simple sentence headline about expecting the best quarter in 2 years).
But there's enough momentum from the depths of the 70's to get some interesting indicators twitching towards a bullish outlook.

And that's all that can be said. Twitching only. Nothing definite. Could just as easily hit an overhead wire next week.
But it's there.

Bear in mind the SP went XD yesterday which accounts for the near 20p divi being lopped straight off the SP dramatically yesterday.

In theory the SP ceases being held back after the 29th of this month, when the SP exits XD period (payment day) but my fear is this determined downtrend, in force since January, may mean the SP stays lacklustre rather than recover to the pre XD price level in play before the 14th.

'Something not adding up. April crude price only one dollar less than March. Yet April payment $10m less. Why???'
----------------

Another news report and dated today, released this morning :
" OIL PRICES have dropped beneath £80 a barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, as fears of an impending world recession grips commodity markets "

The POO is turning bearish.
You wouldn't think so with geopolitical events in play.
And if not due to the POO, why else is GKP's SP in the grip of a strong down trend?

Hedge funds have been selling their long positions in oil. In fact the news item I saw at the beginning of the week said they were "dumping" oil in a hurry!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-unloading-oil-futures-180000249.html

" Liberum are using their investor base to advertise SLP in return."
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Incorrect hedged.

The email is from "RESEARCH TREE" (Google it) not Liberum.

They collate all the brokers analysis reports. Because I trialled an offer of theirs earlier this year I continue to receive emails from them regularly to tempt me to get a subscription with them. They have no affiliation with any of the brokers whose reports they make available for a subscription fee.

Neither do Liberum have access, or as far as I know, access to an investor base to advertise themselves.

Most established stocks have a brokers in-house analysis report. They are not free. They depend on institutions for their fees. Other fees come from those who buy their reports for resale to others like investors and investment magazines etc.,

Whether investors like it or not, brokers analysts are often privvy to info in advance that should be made available to the wider market at the same time.