Member Info for Velo

Played silly buggers with the divi today.

Had already decided, after only just recently buying a small tranche for 86p almost a month ago, that I would crystallise the 12 % gain showing, as it was 50% greater than the dividend itself (8%) and so sold @ 99.71 for a now 13% gain in the closing minutes today.
(Had I delayed a minute later, it would have almost certainly been a 14% gain!)

I’d decided a definite sale if the SP cleared anything over 100 but didn’t look like it would in the closing minutes, so took the 99.71 on offer to produce a 13% profit for a few weeks holding as my main plan is for the Jan/Feb period.

And for that I need all trends on full bull chanting. Which they are at the moment with the only one - the long-term trend just kissing (which will now get parted from kissing tomorrow morning).

My intention is to see if the XD overshoots the 8p deduction tomorrow (and/or for the majority of November) and hope to get back in as near as possible to my original buying in price ahead of January.

Shouldn’t have really bought anything until much clearer probabilities for the Jan period (as already have a main holding); hence I was happy to take this little profit as it’s just a “swing trade”, and if I do manage to buy close back to my initial buying price then that means effectively I got a 13% dividend pay-out :)

Not desperate to buy back in November, so if unfavourable SP’s - will default to my original plan and buy in the closing days of December or early January.

My other main holding I’ve left as is, and never touched.
This is regarded as a trading ‘bet’ more for fun than serious intent. Serious intent will come as Jan comes into view and all trends give off the right signals.

But let’s see what the temporary damage is tomorrow and throughout November.

Anyway, I’m happy, but a little disappointed the SP didn’t close proud of 100. However it’s all simmering nicely for the ‘big one’ to come in Jan/Feb.
(IMO only)

Anyone else played silly buggers (besides me) with the divi?

Infor - For the month of October both Platinum and the SP (as of today) have risen approx by the same percentage more or less. RH only risen fractionally in that period.

On first sight of Q3 update, I have to concur with Tab'. Commendable increases under most headings, including cash!

Short of time so will try and post later on the market full year expectations compared to projections derived from the H1 result. This Q3 shows nice increases so much so, that the expected small year net loss now looks like turning in a profit. However last year's huge net profit was bolstered by the land buy and sell bonus and am wondering whether this increase nullifies the market's former full year estimate of a small net loss.

Laters.

PS. Still have reservations though, appertaining to that Benish M-Score report which is still in force

" ... then I amguessing it will fall!"
--------------

Temporarily yes, and perhaps they might take more than the 8p off the SP in the early part of the XD period.

Temporarily, because December will see it all put back and probably/maybe a fair chunk of it returned beforehand, at the back end of November.
.
Last year with similar dates and a 4p dividend, November did get pulled back very noticeably by that month's end but the year before (Covid year) with a 1.6p dividend, the SP closed XD period higher than it began!
An anomaly.

SLP is still in anomalies territory too, as the big rise on the publication of the results in September in the days immediately surrounding the final results - resulted in the biggest % gain in the SP ever seen of any September since SLP was floated, had that gain held to month close!
So anomalies here and there.

Stick my neck out now, and IMO say anyone looking for 80's for a quick top-up, might only have the last 3 trading days of October or the month of November as a last chance saloon to do so. But should this rally run well, right up to the day before the 27th, then the pull back in XD period might only bring it back to the low 90's
and therefore no 80's seen again, this year?

Dependant if this run does go to decent heights before the 27th though.

Nice SP currently. Lots of good signals abound the SP price action.

Could be the start of steady increase towards the Oct 27th cut-off for the big divi lock-in inclusion.

Loads of bullish signals abound. Anyone noticed another push at higher lows and higher highs commenced in July and it's still active. To remain active this rally must break above 100 to stay in play.

Only 3 times there's been a significant break above the descending 200 day trend since the summer of '21 - and this is the third attempt whilst unbelievably it's only in the lowly 90's!

And that's because due to the last (failed) higher lows and higher highs, and now this attempt from July at a repeat performance, the descending 200 has plataued. For the first time since the bad summer of 2021 the 200 trend has ceased descending - and has now flattened out. It's commenced levelling off.

And another trend has just turned bullish too!

I have high expectations for this coming Jan and Feb. Might not happen of course. But should there be the slightest breeze of a hint of good news about in Jan then that's the month that's ready to reward good news however slight it is.

All in all, the SP is looking good to go. IMO only of course.

“. . . But nonetheless expecting a close somewhere in the 140's.”

---------------

Huh!
You win some you lose some.
Taking my crystal ball back to the horoscope shop for a refund.

Other assumptions:
Not expecting the SP to visit the v high 160’s again, for at least months yet. Thinking, the high 150’s/low 160’s might be it for a considerable period yet.
So when 157 showed up the other day I thought: Well it did that easy. I’m going to be wrong again.

Then it pulled back sharply the same day!

Not all those seeking to liquidate their assets had liquidated; maybe they were just delaying to try and to get a better price?

My conundrum:
Short-term trends are bearish. Now the intermediate trends have recently turned bearish.
However, the long-term trend is still gloriously bullish. And to back it up the medium trend is bullish too.

So match point to the bullish trends. Whilst the price is sat on the 200 day trend. The SP needs to stay well above it, more persistently, to maintain that bullishness.

As the intermediate trend is the very latest to change direction from bullish to bearish, it leaves me with that conundrum – will the long-term trend that rules over all, have the final say and this period will just turn out to be another buying opportunity?

Or does the Intermediate trend turning bearish indicate the shoe is starting to drop on to the other foot?

The SP continuing to live above the 200 day trend is required for that to remain the case. Should the SP start living below it, it would signal these are the advance troops signaling that the long-term bullish trend might be under threat.

Can only suck it, and wait and see who gains the upper hand.

So not buying-in just yet.

High probability of not only a sustained revisit to the 140's tomorrow, but more than likely the day will close in the 140's too.

Maybe no deeper than 148-145 area. But nonetheless expecting a close somewhere in the 140's.

Not a certainty of course, because - IMO only.

For anyone who's expecting a further divi payment, I'd like to be more precise on the jibe in my initial post about no more dividends after the year-end results are known.

And that is a dividend will be paid to holders next week, on 13th October (19p per share) but it puts into question if the merchant banks et al, will willingly issue credit loans to XPP once the full year losses are known (debt was up from £24m to £80 in the Q1 trading update. Their website is showing that debt has now breached the £100m level. What bank is going to willingly lend money to a loss-making company that wants to use that loan to pay out in non-returnable dividends?

Bound to be caveats attached to the loans, especially with rapidly rising interest rates propelling that net debt even higher than before, for the issuance of any further loans to cover debts.

I just don't think the company will be allowed to dish out freebies like dividends, do you - once the year-end result is published?

But the Oct 13th dividend is winging its way to you.
I think it'll be the last until the company returns to a profit-making enterprise, but that's just mere opinion at this stage . . . my opinion only.

Blah-blah-boringboy, the pip-squeak cry baby, who can't stand any opinion other than his own, thus rendering him incapable of original thought to answer the specific content in my post, so empty headed, he goes for the player rather than the ball.

I have one - no two questions for him:

1) Did you even know XPP was already in a loss-making position so far this year?
Well, did you?

2) Are you aware that the full trading year ending this Dec 31st will more than likely result in the current intra-year loss swamping H2 to reveal a total loss for the full year?

Number two, is a forecast of course. Forecasts can be wrong. I defy you to say that forecast won't happen
- Go on I dare you :)

Blah blah is the right name for you
- boringboy poster of the year for sure
....Yawn

PS.
Is that the full level of your Sherlock Holmes intellect on display there? Did you really, seriously, believe that no one but you alone, has noticed this forum is sparsely posted? Geezalou!

Why weren't the half-year (H1) results mentioned on this forum, here back in early August?
(Curiously, they weren't even published on this site, under the RNS tab up above).

The earlier Q1 results that are published up above revealed a bullish increase in revenue with a great increase in orders and a brief but punchy statement from the CEO about the court case.

Debt at March was over 3 times higher than that of the year-end results!
(£24m up to £84m) but explained as a result of acquisitions. Okay then.

The last half dozen years of revenue show excellent growth including forecasts for this year and next year also increasing nicely.

Net profits in those years were similar, apart from one year in that period out of synch by being a little less v the other increasing yearly Net Profits.
Still okay.

However, the H1 trading result (which I've now obtained) shows the opposite of the increasing net profits, not a profit but a great stonking loss of minus - £33m !
(with operating profit further up initially at minus - £45m!)

Does that mean by "absorbing" the court fine it's been paid out of this year's entire net profits?

If so why not amortise it over several years to ease the burden.

No promised dividend for you lot by this year's end results then - because using the TTM method of calculation the full year ending on the 31st December is likely (but not certain) to likely come in with its first gigantic loss ever of minus - £26.5 m loss!

(You better hope that TTM estimate doesn't materialise as there are two major guru shorting screens promoting this stock as a good bet to short further).
Additionally the infamous Altman Score by a professor of finance has XXP down as potentially a bankrupt basket case within the next 2 years. (The Altman score is not to be taken too much to heart - I've studied it for years and it often misses the target completely.

My assessment (I have no holding yet in XPP) but it's a watchlist stock of mine ever since I missed out on climbing aboard for the stellar rise back in 2019 - is that the SP of this stock has not finished retracing.

PS. Two hedge funds have shorting sharks circling you under the short button up above.
(Well ostensibly 2 above 0.5% that is).
No regulatory requirement to reveal your hand if your short is less than 0.5% so there could be more; checked after finding 2 Guru screens promoting this stock as a candidate for shorting.

So why was the damaging H1 trading update never discussed on this forum here?

" I made the most of it and increased my holding by 40% buying all the way down."
---------

Hmmm.... 'All the way down'???

What makes you think the SP has finally reached ***ALL*** the way down?

Do you have any evidence/logic to share/ support that assertion?

Secondly if it continues to languish say for example for weeks/months, do you still have spare funds to take advantage of further lower prices should per chance, they occur or have you a pre-planned budget that has now been reached?

..... although I'd really love the 90's again, to put the new entry holding in real eternal safety.

(Back to that old friend of £2b net profit forecast by both analysts and der management for the current year)
- so looking forward to the November H1 reveal to see if all on course for that or not.
Revenue forecast to be increasing annually from this year and now on (the first in living memory (yer wot?!? Shock horror!)

Geopolitical events though on course to potentially upset all that and all markets everywhere. So you better take that £1 while the going's good, eh?

Go on keep selling; keep the price dropping. There's a quid here waiting for yours.

Discounted cash flow puts the margin of safety pounds above the current price so nobody is really down permanently if you can hold long enough without crying like a baby.

Am convinced the next 3 months will be positive for the SP so could you sellers please hurry up driving the price down and give me your stock for a quid before the SP moves into its best performing months of the year please. Thank you.
Pffft to £1.20!

(Cue heavy sound of jingling sound one pound coins in trouser pockets) jingle jingle!

For the sake of clarity, my posting below yesterday of commencing a new holding in SLP in a separate account from my main holding does not infer that all is bullish and good to go.
On the contrary all is still v bearish.

The bear is still with us. If anything expect further poor SP performance until the market displays different to currently.

Repeat: short term trends are still pointing down. And the SP is below the predominant trend which is grimly hanging on to the 90p level.

Hope that's clear for any undecided fence sitters out there.

More volatility than the worst behaved bad-boy penny stocks – yet UKW has a stellar low Beta rating of just 0.2 indicating an extremely stable SP.
Expect that rating to climb after this – the worst slide in UKW’s history since launching on the stock market, with only the March 2020 crash to better it!

No wonder investors might wonder: Should I buy now or wait/ Has the worst of the slide finished or not?
That’s what extreme volatility does – has everyone chasing their tail.

Tsk! Closed-end financial funds with their beloved govt bonds - and their damned yields!
----------

Run up some pivot points (for fun) for potential swing ‘ideas’ for tomorrow only - and redundant after Thurs close
- and am coming up with:

Between 146 and 153 if a bullish day,
with some higher SP’s above those – if it’s of a mind to on the day.

On the other hand if it’s back to the bears then getting between 146 down to 143.
Some really savage lower SP’s below this if the bottom drops out of your world tomorrow (including that 135 I was ruminating over).
But those two ranges are the ‘most likely’ on-the-day

146 coming out as the actual pivot point, so if a quiet day instead, then not much travel very far, either direction, from 146.

Above IMO only of course.

Whatever; so 140 held the fort after all then. Wonderful thing hindsight. I use it all the time :) :)

---------------

Letting things settle to allow lagging trends to play catch-up and see what comes out in the wash for a better opinion of the next likely traversing of the SP.

Done it. Opened a new (v small initial tranche) holding in my main account. Did want to add to my current holding but no funds left in that account and not wishing to add further funds to that particular account.

I hereby claim (in this account only) to have the smallest holding on this board! :)
Can't say that for my older holding elsewhere :)

It'll be a pure (swing) trade account as have it planned out to March 1st next year - then banking it and trading on as trends dictate.

Well this month is performing true to form. But don't get too downhearted just yet with 2 days to go.

I measure month end, to month end, in dividing SLP up for monitoring purposes once I'm convinced trends (my guiding lights) are also in alignment.

And the August month end close was 81.5p
So with 2 days to go it looks likely to at least close Sept as a small gain. The computer is forecasting a loss for the month. We'll see.
81.5 is the way marker. Beat it! The computer says the price won't. What do you say? :)

I think Loggy has displayed the right attitude and not loading up at the September highs, but instead mopping up the dregs for a good price. I'm hung up in SLP in another account so have to be careful I don't overfill my trough on one stock by buying all in just one stock. Plenty fish in the sea to cast the net wider.

But I am convinced some sort of pay day is winging it's way here over Jan & Feb next year. So picking up bargains (and not duds) is worth a shot if the money on the table is controlled and not wildly risked beyond tolerance. I might yet buy very small in my main account and add if even lower hoves into view at the same tiny amounts - as a trading punt.
I have a longer term investment in SLP elsewhere. So it would be pure trading not investing. Small stakes is my control when the risks are higher.

The challenge is, can I wait until trends are so in alignment they are screaming their heads off and the price is far from the 80's and rising and still keep my cool? Thing is I don't do cool. Hmm. We all have faults. What's yours :)

Nice price to add Loggy.
And with: "heading towards ex divi date." just prepare yourself of course, on the 27th Oct for the MM's to whip that 8p divi away from investors pronto and not return it until payday on 2nd Dec.

So another opportunity for adding another decent add/entry price between 27th Oct to Dec 2nd?

Also Oct has the potential to perform superior to September, so in between the light-fingered MM's having your 8p away is the possibility to claw some of it back before Dec 2nd - Geopolitical events permitting.

But with new govt and crashing pound/BOE intervention/s, it's anybody's guess of course :)

This mornings drop is a market wide response to the IMF taking the unprecedented step of criticising the Govts fiscal policy. Big guns are wheeling out of UK stocks in general.

The price was pulling back regardless but it's been pushed off the railway platform from behind, by marketwide conditions this morning. Red, red, everywhere is red. Let alone SLP.

Trying to get on with other chores but just seen 139 hove into view.

All minor supports have gone. One I didn't dare post because it was so low and I risked being labelled a deramper was my fancy of 135. Now that does look strong.
"looks" LOL!

Now should that go too, then you know what comes next. That's right! Nothing will suffice but recourse to a couple of good ol' Anglo Saxon swear word or two.

Geezalou! Just noticed 141 after logging out. Red across all UK FTSE indices.