Member Info for Velo

Last year the early trading update was on 12th Jan, so I'd expect no earlier than that.

The actual H1 result is not published until sometime early in the first few days of March - but the market will construct that H1 interim result from this trading update that usually comes out before mid January and a market reaction regarding the SP should occur before the H1 is published in March, and again on publication of the H1.

85.2 thanks, Roofer

PS.
I should mention that I'm expecting February to produce a month's end gain almost 50% higher than January's.

So for instance, should January only achieve a close of 105p for that month, then February's target would only be reduced to the lower half 120's such is the strength I'm expecting February to achieve.
Even if January only produces a zero % gain and close the same as December's close of 102.5 - then February should still close not far short of the 120's. Can't believe the figures, but February could rescue any failures in January.

This is about price (sentiment) and not fair value.
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get"

Some websites calcs on SLP show the SP as overvalued., ie.,
Fair value - 76p
Others 84p value etc.,
Much, much, higher on sites such as Simply Wall Street and a few others.

Current brokers = $180 (149/150p) which coincidentally was an all time high on an intra day high back in May '21.

Elsewhere saying SP will be playing tag with 125 for this year.

Below are my sentiment "prices" I'm suggesting for months ending Jan & Feb -

Target by end of January = circa 115-ish
Target by end of February = circa 136-ish

Both well above what I was initially expecting which was 110/112 & 130.
then 112's & 130's.
But the actual close to December has put paid to those to now reveal incredible suggestions for end of Jan & February.

Prices are probabilities only because no other stock I've seen in recent years has been so dependable on certain characteristics each Month! But all upset the applecart from May' 21 - until that is the late '22 fourth quarter. So keen to see if old characteristics return.

Trends are all bullish. Long term is the ruler of all it surveys and it's bullish and growing!

Shouldn't really post prices as not my forte - only general trends. But it's the new year so we'll see how close the SP can get to those expected prices :)

Ha! You've shown clearer decisiveness than me S/Owls :)

Always done v well when large margin spreads on display but not this time. Didn't like what they were asking so yet again postponed until the new year.

Need a handful more tranches to satisfy what I'm developing. However price is running ahead of both what I and the computer are spitting out. Feel sure a small pullback is overdue before what I expect will be an extremely rewarding January.

Will be setting out my expectations for both Jan & Feb sometime over the New Year holiday. Only thing is this higher than expected SP is making the computer churn out unbelievable figures. Feel sure I've made an error so debating whether to reveal what I've had in mind for month end prices on those months. Forget linear progress. We've all been brainwashed by last year's s-l-o-w price progress and this recovery will take some by surprise IMO.

So whatever price I'm offered next week, time is running out for me as price inches closer to my old expectations and the new expectations based on the current SP.

So much so, I am of the opinion both Jan & Feb will be the biggest gaining months of 2023. (Not that the rest of the year will fail to impress) just that those 2 months will over-deliver in comparison to what's gone before IMO.

Everything under the stars is in alignment.

Quite a pronounced bearish close in US markets last night.

Overnight futures are mixed for US open later this afternoon, but bearish for the FTSE open. Might be a roll-on effect for morning UK markets.

Still stand by the potential for the 250 area being the floor - until/unless events prove otherwise by continuing to maintain the downtrend.

Wow! Will you just look at that! A close just 5p above...
... Wait - 5p above what?

Why is it left to me to post of the significance? I'm not even a holder (yet).

What major significant event is just 5p below tonight's close? No one's mentioned it - which implies the vast majority of current holders bought after Dark's initial IPO launch price.

Back in April '21 you could apply for stock in Dark at the launch price of 250p.

On the day it soared some 40+% so it wasn't possible to get it at 250 in the market that day! Now it is.

Just think about that. After soaring to circa £10, here's a chance to get in at the original ground floor price!

Always vaguely thought 255 would be the optimum floor but as a trend follower I don't like to buy in committed downtrends. So prefer to wait it out until the predominant trend breaks to the upside. Which could mean waiting for a much, much, higher SP.

Besides I have US data going back for the last 10 years that concludes the vast majority of US IPO's go on to lose 50% of their launch IPO price within 3 years of launch. Some don't of course and go on to great things with ner a look back.

This is UK markets anyway, but if there is such a thing (haven't seen any UK long term studies on IPO's) then if bearish sentiment doesn't release it's grip then 125p is a talking point for near-future years (the 3 year rule for US IPO stocks).

So my first guess is that this may well be the floor - tonight!

Getting in at the ground floor launch price - maybe a strong bounce as early as tomorrow?

And that could put paid to the 50% retrace within 3 years thing? (Recent UK IPO 'Supreme' SUP retraced 50% of its launch price just recently and rebounded almost instantly).

255 the floor??? Hmm... Just me ruminating :)

Ha
Ha! :) Yes Stoodio I can easily agree (seriously) that's a possibility today.

If the SP has the legs and knocks off 520 then yes the way is open to 532 today.

But equally you must accept the mirror opposite: If the bears get the bit between their teeth and get to 498 then the road opens up all the way down to 489.

Both directions are possible today too, but I only stick to the high probability candidates - for more consistency.

Oops, rushing. Header should have said 'For Wednesday'

Found a little bit of time this morning:

The balance of probabilities suggests that Monday's close was a signal of returning bears.
However it is by no means a certainty. Based on probabilities only.

The downside risk today is IMO, tightly packed below 500, as far as I can make out. So if it's another bearish day, despite evidence of the market driving the price lower, I don't think the bears will manage a big seven league boots charge to the downside. Although it would be interesting to see a close in the sub 500 area to test this potential double bottom set-up, to see if it's a go-er or not. All the others throughout the year failed but this is the largest potential set-up yet, since the big retrace commenced.

The record all-time low in October was an intraday visit - the bears failed to close the day on it (but they did close a couple of days in the sub-500's anyway).

The second visit into sub-500 was last week - but a complete failure to close a single day below 500. Intraday visit only.

So, if they do manage to break through 500 today, and close the day on it, I'm not expecting the bears to close deep down in it. It's clear the bears (hedge fund shorters?) are determined to smash through 500 and worse - keep it submerged!

However, there are significant buyers taking up the cudgels at sub 500.

If price goes sub 500 for a third time (October last month, then last week, and maybe attempts today?) it starts to weaken the case for a strong fightback; as visit a support once too often, and price will capitulate and eventually fall straight through it. The SP can escape from a third visit yes, to sub 500 - but time's-up, if after this, the SP is pushed again into revisiting the area again, in the weeks ahead.

Bad news day, is a close between 510 down to 498.

A close around 510 is today's time-out rest/respite, neutral area.

A bullish pushback in my view is a close between 510 and 520.
- but at least a 520 close or better, is needed to bring the bears to their knees (short term)

Above only valid for Tuesday.

And all of it of course - IMO only.

Just got time to confirm I did pick up 2 bites of the cherry yesterday (Monday) @ 101.9 before 9am
and 100.8 about an hour or so later, before hitting the road north for the rest of the day.

December is achieving greater intra-month highs than I'm expecting the month to close on, so won't be surprised If 99 is offered today, if per chance it does - I'll take it.

But might have to be a limit order as I'm mostly tied up elsewhere all day.

Seeking to have full position in place by the end of the month or very early Jan.

What are posters views about the SP for the next 2 months?

- Rightly or wrongly, I have extraordinarily high ambitions for the SP over the next 2 months - moreso for Feb than Jan.

Right, I gotta go :) ........

Many thanks Artji, yes it does help. Excellent summerisation.

That's one helluva an intro Stoodio. Holey moley! (Thank you :)
Can that go on my CV?
An Oscar winner would struggle to get an intro like that LOL! So, no pressure on me, then?

(And thanks too, scallop)

——————

Quick post as I hit the road tomorrow and little time for posting until the new year.

First off - There’s still not a single trend of any note or description of strength that’s supporting ASC.
In fact all are all uniformly bearish! So although I support those enjoying the excellent performance today, my pleasure is limited and comes with caveats.

What are your views for Tuesday?
Here's what I’m personally on the look out for, tomorrow:

Safety? - 515
For tomorrow (Tuesday) to continue the green shoots of an upturn (will be checking up at m/way service stops) if the bears halt all progress north then safety from further bear attacks is circa of what looks suspiciously easy tonight; is a close to the day of no less than 515.

Go for full-on bullish? - 526
However, if you want a chance of a full bull trend to continue developing then IMO no less a close of 526 or v close to that is needed by day’s end for a bullish performance to continue on Wed.

However, failing that, a close anywhere between 515 and 526 is still in bull territory.

Notice how easier those sound. What’s more suspicious is that the big drop to the downside has now closed ranks, awoken and stormed up to the SP’s backside. You can no longer think of getting in at the low 500’s.

Bear attack? - 508
Because a close at or below 508 is definitely a win for the bears and no mistake they would run with it on Wednesday. Again a massive shakeup from those figures I distrusted on Sunday. (Not so deep, but crept up closer).

A close between 515 and that 508 would still tilt bias on Wednesday to expect bearishness on Wednesday IMO.
(515 is a safety close, area only - neutral zone! Drop no further! It’s the bottom line police stop for Wed)

Just my thoughts only for Tuesday. Please save me a couple of A4 pages that would ensue if asked to explain how I arrived at those assumptions. Just my personal thoughts for Tuesday :)

PS. The above is valid for Tues only and no other day after Tuesday
- as needs recalculating afresh after each day’s close. Not that I’m going to do that, but it can be boring waiting for longer-term, major trends to break.

Impressive performance today.

Think the SP has now slipped the earthly bounds of earth’s gravity and entering space orbit.
Major Tom is calling ground control, singing:
Leaving earth’s gravity now.
Cutting thrusters now.
Entering £1 territory . . . for good . . . And not coming back . . .

Though I’m past 100 pence I’m far above the world
Planet earth is blue
And I’m floating in a most peculiar way
And there’s nothing I can do

Ground control to Major Tom
Your circuits dead, there’s something wrong
You’re not supposed to exceed 100 pence until the end of the month.
Can you hear me Major Tom?
Can you hear me Major Tom?
Can you . . . .

The SP has already got all the big-time major significant bull trends under its belt and has raced ahead of my expectations for December and those were to close the month in the v high 90’s up to maybe £1 max.

And I don’t think it’s coming back down, this year. Have targets for Jan and Feb on previous expectations of the Dec close - (will reveal those over the new year hols) and those were based on a £1 max close. Not so sure now. Could be higher. It’s achieved self-awareness propulsion and is legging it into orbit. Goodbye 80’s. Goodbye 90’s. :)

I had 99 buy on screen early on today and a £1 dead later on and still I hesitated.
I’ve now come to the conclusion (after the excellent and irreversible performance today) that my previous thinking on a flattish performance this week is now unlikely.
Hoping to take a small tranche in service stations tomorrow, when I can, as will be on the motorway most of the day and away until after the new year with little time to post again unless its v late at night.

Don’t think the SP will take a breather until well into the new year either. But if it does I intend to take any opportunities before January - as Jan is the old launchpad takeoff point, and not sure where the price will be by then as it’s all systems go with the SP already in orbit on a mission to explore bigger SP’s for the first 2 months of 2023.

Over and out Major Tom.

Of course I'm well aware of that. However, they can clear up confusion and general misunderstandings helpfully pointing in the right direction in the accounts for fuller explanations in the footnotes etc., I just couldn't understand an asset buy and sell resulting in a capital gain, bypassing a full trading profit and loss entry.

Besides read somewhere years ago article or book that you can sometimes speak directly to a CFO where it's difficult to get either the CEO or chairman on the phone as CFO's are usually ignored so they can be delighted to be asked questions as long as everyone understands nothing can be revealed that isn't already in the public domain as it's a serious offence resulting in insider dealing crimes et al. They can only clarify, repeat or reinforce intentions that have already been made public.

It was a 90.1m Net Profit for the full trading year last year. Incredibly, they call it profits from a "bargain" purchase but shunted the profits straight down into net profits. They bought a jungle/forest from someone for 10m and sold it straight on a little later for 100m - so they say in the accounts. Couldn't believe it so I went to website and dialled the phone number to their help desk in the hope of speaking to the CFO - but it was a generic recording that said leave a message. (The phone line terminated in London). Okay small company can't afford to staff phone lines in another country. So I decided to email her instead. I outlinrd my concerns the tax implications and never heard of shoving it straight into net profit. Guess what? To this day never had a reply. Still think that is dodgy accounting - but not in here so it's your concern not mine.

Thank you for that Roofer. Appreciated.

Well I'm going for a bearish week up to Friday and a bullish week commencing straight after Christmas, which I hope will run on into the first week of January.

- so for this week, would you please enter me for * 81.8 * thanks Roofer.

Thanks for that link Roofer.
I think most in the link you have to pay for.

The subscription packages I subscribe to, use algo's in presenting the data they offer, and the charting software has it's own coding available for subscribers to set themselves. I usually take their presets and adjust the bits I need, occasionally, but no don't have much experience of them personally. Don't worry about them either.

Have you ever heard of Jim SImmonds? - former maths professor (think he worked for the CIA at one point) who has made billions derived from his algo's etc and computerised trading he devised. They call him "the man who cracked the stock market code". Articles claim he is more successful and wealthier than Warren Buffett and it is HE who is the world's most successful investor/trader. All from algo's and computerised trading. (He employed graduate scientists)

Rather than reinvent the wheel I ride on the back of the stock market trends already in play. You could say it's like being a parasite. Doesn't matter to me who is moving the market, if they make a stock retrace and it becomes significant then I don't fight it. Either short it or go to cash. And go long if a stock is in a bull run.

I'm pretty much settled in my methods these days, so I refine and refine around my core beliefs/principle which is - trend following. So computerised trading is no use to me now I have 'my system' in place. The weak link in the whole process is my self discipline something that would thankfully dissappear if handed over to automated ago's.

And if all those who fear that computerised trading has taken over - don't fear them - join them if you can't beat them If a stock is falling like a mad dog over a long term period - join in and short or go to cash. Why fight them by buying at guessed floors? Wait until the trend turns to the upside. And that's where I have (or think I have) a variety of differing trend periods, to see if it's to be short-lived or passes through each trend to the next stage up, until it becomes the prized/feared long term trend. Too much pressure/greed to get in at the exact bottom or exit at the very top. Most guru's say the exact same thing in the books: they never made their fortunes by buying at the exact bottom or selling at the exact top. The opposite of what we PI's engage in :)

For instance, Warren Buffett buys are often reported in the media.
99/100 times I can clearly see the trend has already changed in his favour, when he makes his move. Maybe it changed after he buys. Who cares? Up is up whoever starts the ball rolling. So much for buying when others are fearful. SP trends change at extremes of sentiment.

Interesting though.
There's a UK guy Tradeinformed? (Mark Ursell? ) not automated algo's etc., who charges only £20 for your own back testing via spreadsheets but that means you have to mess about with stockmarket data downloads from Google etc.,

Sorry - this is nothing to do with the price of butter and it is the weekend so doesn't really clog up the board but after mentioning below running a horse racing spreadsheet and mentioned about "the Computer Kid" I started reminiscing, was it the 80's or later? Decided to Google and see where he is today and if he was an adult masquerading as a kid (they gave him a column in the Sun; and displayed his picks next to the tipsters on screen on the TV horse racing afternoons.

And I came across this -

" The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

- If you read it out of interest or boredom :) It's the 2nd article below the confusing introductory article.

Hi Fleccy,

"... we're receiving dividends of around £22,000 a year.. "
---------------

Gezalou! I'm seriously impressed there, Fleccy. If you own your home - you could live on that income!
(With a little bit of LBYM's:)

PS.
Not to keen on you revealing too much ££'s and pence in your posts because you never know who's reading these posts.

ie., Read years ago, fraudsters patrol Facebook picking up on those broadcasting the dates their homes will be empty whilst telling all when they go on holiday - when defending your methodology with personal £££'s & pence, from envious posters who feel they can only succeed by putting down others - as if other investors are the sole reason for all their personal failures.
I have so many investing books that I've run out of storage space. Overall my takeaway is that fortunes have been made from all styles of investing methodolgy.