Member Info for Velo

" Remember buying shares phoning your broker then and getting a contract and a month later a certificate in the post and then dividends by cheque. Checking share prices in the newspaper or teletext!"
----------

Ha! I certainly do. The thrill of receiving a cheque in the post dropping through the letterbox is one I never forget. And those share certificates were works of art. Must have been expensive too (the one's that were heavily embossed with regal crests)
Tempted to frame mine but used to think: But what if a burglar breaks in? So beautiful were the share certificates that after Big Bang a market opened up for collectable certificates on eBay. Haven't checked but believe there's still a market for the old worthless beautiful crested certificates on eBay - regarded as works of art!
=======

Android101 - yep got all of them. A ton of data on days and weeks of the month. Have pared down a lot of the indicators and expanded the ones that fit my style. Got hundreds of years of data going back to the formation of stock market investing from when they were carried out in London's coffee houses curtesy of various data studies by researchers etc., Too much as often ignore the triple witching hour occasions etc., it all gets picked up in my ultra short term trends anyway. In other words Trend Following for me :)

Subscription specialist charts I can personally go back to 1900 on anything. Further back than that for checking out other things I refer to researchers when their work is available freely.

" you could also compare with the historic charts, and...."
------------------

Morning Robleo,

I do all that. Have done for many a year.
Or at least that side forms a part of my systematic process. It's labelled the Long Term Trend. One of many varieties of period trends I refer to.

All the other stuff you mention goes in too - as price already reflects the Putin carry-on's/CEO firings etc and all the other things you mention, et al. It's all in there, curtesy of price.

Result? Don't buy in a bear market.

And in an uptrend? - Fill the tank up for the trip ahead.

VOD is still in a long term bear downtrend. So is BT. That's fact not opinion. The fun comes in deciphering when the floor is in.

"if you could work out the share price for next march. . . "
- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Annual pivot points? Never heard of such a thing. Hmm.... makes me wonder :)

- But monthly pivot points should be doable.

PS. In the early years of personal computers, I built a simple averages table for the football pools. I could near enough guarantee 4 out of 8 draws almost every week but the other 4 had to guesses. Won several times but very low amounts.

Years later I used a similar system for the lottery. It "sort of" worked in the early years until the law of averages caught up over the years and rendered the whole thing null and void. Would often win £10 infrequently. But that could/ - would have been plain, dumb, blind luck kicking in.

Wound up doing horse racing - with little success but would take hours and hours inputting the data all day so gave it up.

Years later I heard on Saturday horse racing TV of somebody called The Computer Kid who often won.

If 4's turn up, hope you leave some for me Stoodio.
Tell the MM’s to put some up on the back shelf out back, until Velo turns up for them, ta very much. Tell ‘em I can pay cash if it helps.

——————

“ Don't get too excited yet. “

- Good advice Simon!
The reason I didn’t buy when sub 500, other than I can’t go long in a downtrend, was that I need to see if it stops no further than October’s all-time year low. My genuine fear is it could go screaming past - blowing out of the water all that I’m thinking is possible.

And of course Monday’s got to deliver the goods yet.

And that’s only the first rung on the latter. Plenty of pitfalls after that to overcome, with no guarantees if Monday does deliver what I'm looking for/

For Monday, I’m coming up with some v strange figures. Think I may have fat-fingered the input.
I need to see the SP close higher than tonight’s close, that’s all - not a big ask is it?

But my spreadsheet must have been on the mulled wine, because it says all will be well, and it’ll be game on, if the SP can get as close to 525 as possible.

Eh?

And if today has been a false positive it’s coming out with : Danger, be wary of the high 470’s showing it’s face!

What the hell happened to the 480’s - never mind the 490’s? ? ?

I’ll recheck (gotta have fouled up).
Meanwhile, just a handful of single pence higher than tonight’s close on Monday will keep me happy.

Not every day robleo, just at the close of the week.

They're just two of several areas of data that I manually input to the spreadsheet containing my copyrighted, fantastico, world-beating, Nostradamus-like formulae, I press click and hey presto out comes the answer.

Well 21 answers - look it's a computer it's leaving no stone unturned.
Then it turns round and says: It's one of those - defo!

When I type in: But which one?

It's says:
Don't ask me I'm not a clairvouyant - those are the mathematically high probabilities that might occur by the week's close, the rest is up to you, mate. But it is one of those. You'll see!

That's when I unplug it for answering back with cheek!

In other words, I self-calculate my own pivot points.

"Would you believe me if I told you I see an ASOS package being delivered nigh on every single day of my life :) "
- - - - -

LOL!
The first time I became aware of the ASOS brand was years before I read of their existence in the financial media. Didn't know who they were.

One day, on a fast dual carriageway a guy in serious cycling kit steamed past me with big white lettering down his black cycling tights saying ASOS.

I thought he's fast.

Not unusual to see sporty cyclists covered in brand names that have nothing to do with cycling so assumed it was for some business somewhere. Then another in the same lettering flashed past me, then another, all identical lettering.

Thought to myself I could catch the lot of them if I wanted to.. I just don't want to. I'm enjoying the ride.

Sometime later a clearly overweight lady overtook me on her black utility bicycle.

The first thing I noticed was that she had a front basket full of heavy groceries, and as she sailed past the second thing I noticed was a young child strapped into a rear seat!

I thought to myself:
Geez, I need to get myself some of those flashy ASOS pants.

Something I've only noticed due to being a contestant in this weekly competition is that when I come to update my spreadsheet the lowest price of the week AND the highest price of the week, both occurred on the same day
- today Friday; the end of the week.

What's unusual is something similar happened last week - again on a Friday.

Coincidence whilst the SP is under duress?

" And they do not generally correspond with the gloomy consensus across the news wires for 23."
- - - - - - -

Stoodio - Came across a devastating analysis by a top analyst reviewer he warns investors away from ASC (Paul Scott). He wins awards every other year, so he's good.

But he's behind a paywall (Stockopedia) [and he made a serious fortune in this stock many years ago]
- anyway, it's short piece but he reckons Asos could . . .

"also a question mark over survival? Starting to look wobbly, lost another CFO. I’m wondering could it end up going bust?"

Do you want to read the short piece or have you heard it all before? Wasn't keen on posting it as this forum is up to date with bad news.

PS. Look at the closing "mid-price".

Bid & Ask were 508.5 / 511, so you'd think mid-price would live up to its name and be somewhere in the middle of that gap - but it's the same as the ask!

Don't know if that's a typical computer glitch as happens often, or an indication :)

Hi Stoodio,

I had set my sights on my first tranche of shares SP to commence with a 4.
So those 490's had me twitching and questioning myself.

Only my inner critic prevented me from abandoning my battered discipline (no buying in a downtrend).

That's a bullish close today! - IMO.
Bears ruled down to mid-495's briefly, but the day ended as a win for bulls, as the bulls (buyers) succeeded in chasing the bears all the way back up.

Only a close on Monday, higher than tonight's close will confirm what I think is/ or might be developing.

Decent volume so no fluke.

Only thing is I skedaddle next week so can only watch from afar.

If on Monday, price closes lower than tonight's close, then IMO what I'm thinking all melts away and it's back to the drawing board.

But that was a clear defeat for the bears today!

All will get a chance for a reset in a couple of weeks, less than a month to go.

Preliminary half year Trading Update will be released approx around the 11th January with the actual full H1 published in March. But the market will get all it needs to know to judge Dark in the January trading update.

Excited?
:)

Thanks Stoodio, although I'm out of commission after this weekend, until the new year.

Been looking into valuations and seeing circa £8 to £9 intrinsic values and about a whole pound lower for consensus analysts' SP forecasts. for the current outlook. Or that is until the January update resets the bar.

I mention that because that recent spike in the SP that occurred from late October up to mid-November collapsed upon tagging £8.

Coincidence? Kinda all fits together :)

- £8 and gone was the margin of safety, so it collapsed.

Can't disagree with your evaluations, Simon.
However, can't find any mention of anything resembling a profit warning in the only single RNS updating on this current trading year.

The only mention of this current trading year appears in the final year end results RNS under a section called -

FY23 Outlook

“ H1 loss driven by the usual profit phasing and exacerbated by elevated markdown to clear stock resulting from the change in commercial model, with the contractual freight rate decline year-on-year and cost mitigations expected to mostly benefit the second half “

- - - - - -

- So he talks about a H1 loss as ‘the usual profit phasing’ (because both H1 and H2 last year came in as losses?) but does not issue a profit warning nor warn that H1 loss will impact the H2 result.

So no profit warning and a reluctance to either admit or forecast a loss for the full year, only for H1 as if it’s perfectly normal, but it’s only been normal for the last year only.
He’s yet to admit a loss in H1 will also occur for H2 so until he issues a clear and present profit warning (with fiscal amounts) there’s not a lot to calculate forward.

Is he asking for the benefit of doubt? Because until he does issue a profit warning I have to regard any lowish H1 results as still recoverable by the full year end.

- - - - - - - -

Whatever, been looking at Broker's in-house analyst buy/sell recommendations and have the consensus view to hand.
Whilst all may look as dark as sin there are still a significant number of brokers analysts still recommending to Buy, but overall the Sell analysts lead and currently hold sway.

Thought it might offer some respite if I post those below. And will mark it as the start point to update either every month, or occasionally to see if the number of analysts have increased the buy side or the other way -

- - - - - - - -

ANALYST COVERAGE OF ASC:

Strong Sell = 3
Sell . . . . .. =7

HOLD = 14

Strong Buy = 4
Buy . . . . . = 3

So a total of 10 sells v 7 buys currently, just adds to the gloom.

But both sides lose outright to the number of Hold analysts advising to sit tight and do nothing.

Hi simon1367 - and thanks for responding to my plea. Appreciated.
Just what I was appealing for!

On the whole I agree with your honest and forthright evaluation. That’s why I appealed for those who had opposing views to respond. Not getting the time to fully research ASC from scratch (nor have I read all the relevant RNS's yet
- and doubt I will until after Christmas
- so tempting to wait for a fresh trading update in January to reveal the ‘new black’, then all of us will be on the same page.

I assumed there had been profit warnings etc., during the dire, huge retrace that commenced back in spring 2021.
Hence my call for those who had doubts to reveal what news they had.
Otherwise, I prefer to let the January trading update clear the air to reveal all.

Mostly agree with your analysis apart from the misdirection in the market forecast estimates which I will explain in a moment why.

My viewing of the balance sheet was one of count the red flags and raising hands over my eyes in horror. I expect most investors on this forum have had day after day of constant ‘bad news’ and were well aware of the pitfalls. Hence my reluctance to ram down their throats all the issues that I see currently abound in the balance sheets.

However, this is where I take issue with your interpretation:
“ I'd be interested to know where the 'markets estimated forecasts' came from. They appear to be historical and so, in my view, inaccurate. “

They are not inaccurate.

In effect, yes all market forecasts are historical - and have to be as otherwise every sleight-of-hand fraudster and miscreant would mislead the market by obtaining funds and investment they would otherwise be denied by setting out to deliberately over-promise and under-deliver.
Hence the market strictly does not allow CEO’s to ask for the company forecasts to be adjusted down so that their missed forecasts are papered over.

The regulatory authorities are clear on that. Those who over-promise or fail to achieve their forecasts can adjust their projections by issuing new guidance as a Profit Warning
- but the target forecast remains in place so that all market participants can see the company has failed to meet its objectives!

Similar applies when the targets will be beaten and will likely overshoot.
Then an RNS must be published advising that new guidance shows the forecast will be a ‘beat’ and likely to be significantly higher than current forecasts.

I think brand-new forecasts are only allowed at the H1 conclusion, but not sure.

Repeat: Every target that is either beaten or likely to fall short must be issued as new guidance in an RNS update. Otherwise, everyone would be daft not to promise the moon at the outset and then some months later say: Oops sorry we got the decimal point in the wrong place can we please resubmit as it all looks rather embarrassing now.

Instead, you offer an RNS profit warning - or a RNS significant increase to the outstanding forecast.

Thanks for the appreciative compliments, Bladey and scallop.

Hi Stoodio,

Haven’t seen you in awhile on ‘that’ metals stock. (Ready for the big push in Jan & Feb in that stock? :)
Merry Christmas - and hope you’ve been keeping well.

My interest in Asos goes back to 2014-era when I was first alerted by an article saying something like: If you had invested £3k upon the launch of Asos you would be worth £3m today. When it subsequently retraced alarmingly (I think after it’s almost annual event of employing fire-starters and burning down a major warehouse) to approx £21-ish.
I oohed and ahhed, and instead watched it over the years run up to £70 odd!
Did the same oohing and ahhing in the big March Covid crash from £7 odd up to £60 odd! And did nothing. LOL!

Only discovered you’d taken a position in ASC the other day, when attempting to speed-read through older posts. Hope you’re talent for spotting undervalued stocks still runs true here.

I’m not in here yet - the trends won’t let me, just yet :)

... And if you're not on the list you're just the the kid who's the sidekick, a hero worshipping wannabe of the black jacket gang!

Get yourself on the list if you're 'ard enough to frighten the beejezus out of LSE

Yeah Jack Dawson hasn't been here in years either. He left LSE altogether. A damn good poster he was. His contributions are well missed. Laughing to myself that I'm No:1 on BT in Fleccy's list. I've posted there just the once in 2022! LOL!

Yep! If you get on the list you get to wear a black leather jacket, sat at the back of the class with your legs splayed out blocking the gangway making the teacher walk around you. Yeah the Fonz! Don't forget to bring a comb and some brylcream to join our club and you get to grab the best girls at the prom whilst they singing Sandy - You're the one that I want eh eh eh!

@ Android101 - Hee hee. You're obviously referring to:

PUMP

OR

DUMPED

- I often appear on those lists but get picked up as an innocent victim of the algos due to the length of my posts and the number of posts generated. Sometimes have a contest with others for the top spot bragging rights in a forum for a laugh. Using phrases like: fill your boots or ten bagger, shoots you up the lists instantly. Haven't looked at it in ages :)

Am I on there somewhere on the latest baddest vilains to beware of?