The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"... coincides with an anchored VWAP @ 88.6p..."
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Unimpressed with any longer term moving average price related indicator that relies on a purely day trader's intra day indicator such as the VWAP that is wholly designed for day trading tactics, and only to be used in conjunction with other confirmatory indicators.
It might be volume weighted but tried it back in the day and found it conferred no additional insights to traditional moving average trend prices. I find it unimpressive for long range work, which is the main concern here.
But that's just me. Use it if you find it useful in your work. But it leaves me unimpressed as any kind of specific superior indicator. Never had any inkling to revisit it.
SLP is worth a couple of quid more- longer term IMO only, but wouldn't like to be drawn on how long.
Sentiment is all.
And I view that (sentiment) as designated by a variety of moving average trends - from short term to longer term, to arrive how far momentum is from the predominant trend.
With that low today, and although I previously said higher lows were dissapating away, today's low confirms decisively that higher lows have now gone. In fact, worse, it's slightly lower since August of last year.
A bit too long to expect higher highs and higher lows to still be attempting a recovery after almost a year anyway. Fundamentals were always threatenibg a longer time in revovery - a la chips et al.
However as a personal opinion I'm open to all international markets finding their absolute low point over the next couple of months even if they remain subdued thereafter. Just an opinion only. On the other hand most others are talking of recession, stagflation etc., etc.,
Meanwhile from short term through medium to long term - all trends - all of them - in the SP are still bearish. No escaping it. Things might/might not get worse from here but haven't got a positive thing to offer. It's all eyes on the Q4 at the end of the month then.
W/Falcon - You have declined to go on record and give your opinion about the analysts new consensus updat. You seem locked over Motley Fool. MF is not part of this story only Simply Wall Street. Neither is the obsession with fair valuation of £3+
Again unimportant.
All that was required from you is for you to reply if you think the new consensus forecast of £127m by 2025 that the analysts have forecast is true or not.
What the hell has Motley Fool got to do with all this????
G'night.
Welsh Falcon deliberately missing the point. It's the veracity of the news that's important not who picks up on it.
I ask you publicly. Go on the record.
Is the new consensus news item fake news or not?
Yes or no?
Drop the media outlets no one's interested in your opinion of them - only if the new consensus news item is true or not.
Yawn - time to turn in for the night......... Zzzzzzzzzz
Thanks E/winner.
I truly believe this is transformational news. I really do.
Holder's are so beaten down and the SP at devil's gate doors that we may no longer be in a mind to recognise good news anymore.
Make no mistake, the balance sheet metrics are beyond disastrous. There's only enough free cash flow left for under a year. So imediate concerns are that the board will be out with the begging bowl, unless that subject has already been picked up, buried in posts below. They should have no trouble getting further funds on the back of that latest consensus forecast though.
The SP ends the week in a bad, bad, way. But I feel the lightest steps ever about this stock for the first time in a long while. I'll be a monkey's uncle if things don't change a little for the better. But if not I certainly don't expect worse from the SP. That ends here.
(Unless the bottom drops out of the price of Spot gold).
Hi Zoros,
It's irrelevant what you think of those two organisations. They don't matter in the slightest.
Are you suggesting the (very important) news item is fake because it's appeared from one of those sources?
The point is this:
Is the news item that the 3 in-house brokers analysts for GGP have formed a consensus opinion that there will be a (quote) "UK£127.0m profit in 2025"?
Is it true or not? You got any views on that?
That's what's important - not whether you like or dislike a media publication.
So far I have established that there are indeed 3 brokers analysts for GGP.
One is recommending GGP as a "Strong Buy".
The 2nd is recommending GGP as just a "Buy".
The 3rd analyst's buy/sell rating is not showing up in my research so far.
Are you saying this news is fake news because you don't like the outlets that have got hold of this story?
If you have any facts to add to this latest development I'm all ears because I regard it as The defining moment in GGP's history to date.
Validation that this is no jam tomorrow stock.
I say that because currently the balance sheet metrics look the most dire imaginable.
That 2025 forecast demands an SP re-rate now that some hard (forecast) figures have been offered as a a reliable expectation from reliable analysts. Motley Fool/Simply Wall Street have nothing to do with it whatsoever. Unless of course you have evidence to the contrary.
" . . . New consensus forecast . . ."
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There's a distinct world of difference between a single analyst review in IC for instance or in one of the newspapers to that of a group of analyst consensus views, averaged out.
- CONSENSUS is in a whole barrel of different fish entirely!
Consensus opinion by analysts forms market guidance - and companies are measured as if by law in whether they "beat" guidance, or fail to achieve guidance.
It's not jam tomorrow territory.
A stock that misses guidance gets punished; severely in some cases - so the board now have to deliver - without excuses of this that or the other.
On the other hand how does the market treat a company that goes on to 'beat' guidance? . . . . . . . :)
First things first. I'll settle for GGP "meets guidance expectations".
Consensus, Ahhh worth it's weight in .....
aye up - here comes the pun - worth it's weight in gold. Ouch!
When did this first become general knowledge on here?
I saw a brief mention of it on here yesterday but didn't note what day it was posted.
In other words, how long has the news been out? Simply Wall Street emailing me about suggests it may be days/ less than a week old???
Missed that £3.28 SP valuation in your post there E/winner.
Bear in mind they calculate it using the Discounted Cahflow method.
Which means you have to guesstimate future interest rates; hence depending on who's doing the calculating even using the same methodology the results can vary.
But yes - a massive jump on what they were showing previously; now that they have some potential/credible figure to work on.
3 Analysts? Didn't know GGGP had that many covering them.
Due to the numerous posts this board generates I couldn't find the post to tag this to, a post that I saw the other day mentioning the first appearance of net profits to show up in the next couple of years, so if like me you've been hiding under the duvet as the SP refused to cease retracing, and refused to come out until the coast looks clear, here it is -
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" GGP forecast to breakeven in 2025
The 3 analysts covering Greatland Gold expect the company to break even for the first time.
New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of UK£127.0m in 2025.
Average annual earnings growth of 85% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule."
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- That landed in my email inbox today, courtesy of Simply Wall Street.
Will other finance media outlets pick up on it too?
(With inevitable consequences? :)
“ . . . I have Free Cash Flow per share of 23p ON ESTIMATED EARNINGS OF $73M . . . “
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- And more wind to your sails Quiggers on your estimate of $73m earnings.
I hope you’re on the money there, as that would be the defibrillator shock paddles applied to SP after the command: Stand Clear! is given, that would shock the SP back into the land of the living.
I'm seeing the market guidance is for estimates of the Net Profit in the region of $62m.
However, the TTM (Trailing 12 months) algo, is suggesting Net Profit of an astonishing $83m+ which I find too rich.
So that $73m sounds a reasonable possibility, which would give the SP that pulse, as that would be a market beat and sentiment would improve no doubt towards the SP.
The final Q4 update of the year, is due out in the last late days of this month.
They won’t issue the full year amount until approx the 7th/8th of September, so you’ll have to add the subtotals yourself to compare to your own estimate.
This is why August has (until last year) form, in being a good period for the SP.
As yesterday was the final day of the full trading year (so happy 1st day of the brand new 2023 trading year today!) they’ll be working on compiling that Q4 right now.
Well I'm gobsmacked the SP has withstood the market set-backs the past 2 days let alone this year to date. (Although the SP has dropped 1p by close, the bid; the selling price - remains okay by comparison).
IMO the SP now enters the 2nd best period of the year for a chance of outperformance by the SP.
I'm encouraged to believe traditional August has not been destroyed by the collapse of the supercycle in PGM commodities. (January and February is the first best period of the year and both those months delivered this year!)
January has done that since SLP has been listed on the market - August only since the 5 years, up to ending May 2021
thereafter it all collapsed. (But not January)
First things first, the higher lows and higher highs are almost dead - by appearance with that extreme low in June, virtually putting paid to that idea.
Higher highs have been a rarity since August of last year and unless we get one in either July or August, then for me to repeat "higher highs" would be stretching credibility.
June was no where bad enough as it's traditionally been, so all previous dependable annual characteristics are in flux and no longer dependable as they had been especially for the 5 years non-stop that ended in May 2021.
Those who promoted SLP as only worth 80-odd p, must be recognised for calling it correctly. But that was then. I thought and still think it's value is worth a couple of quid!
So now it's time to see if giant-killer August has a heartbeat. July has historically until last year nearly always been not half bad, but those days are as good as gone, unless I see /hear a pulse.
Unfortunately every trend measurable is down-trending and still bearish on SLP, more due to geopolitical events outside of company control, than self induced.
Therefore until we see that pulse (this month or August?) the 80p'rs rule the roost.
PS.
THS is having a torrid time of late and a worse time than SLP, SP-wise.
All balance sheet metrics for SLP are now superior to THS. Screen filtering-wise SLP tops THS as the better buy on every screen.
Fact, not opinion.
“ . . . As for WoodBois, we can expect early next month news of 2nd quarter trading . . . “
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Yes, if events are similar to last year then I’d expect the Q2 update next week (late in the week).
Nothing on the WBI website!
Holders should be pleased with the contents as the last guidance was to expect a continuance of increased revenue. The only caveat was: that all was dependent on containers and shipping issues easing, as the shipping industry was in dire straits earlier this year.
It's then a simple matter of adding the new Q2 to the previous Q1 update to arrive at the H1 (Official H1 expected in early August RNS) to check if the extraordinary increase in revenue forecasts for the full year, over previous achievements is on track or not.
Holders have every right to look forward to next week with great optimism. As that was the positive guidance issued in the last company update.
I want to see if the huge increase promised is delivered, or excuses made.
It will make an impact on continuing the sentiment momentum positively, if achieved.
Don’t have a position in WBI (still have unresolved issues with items in the balance sheet) so I’d like to see how this all pans out, and whether my concerns are unfounded.
Unfortunately, I’m out of town again next week, so someone else will have to get a H1 total as the market will react positively to signs that forecast guidance is on target – as it’s a stellar increase forecast - expected to come to fruition by the market that’s for sure!
Last post below (like this one) is under the incorrect subject heading
- Should have been Something like: "Latest trading update just released"
It's new-News not old news :)
Quick post:
And the good news continues!
Trading update published yesterday 7th June (see RNS above) opened with the following sentence:
" The Group has performed above expectations in the year to date."
ABOVE expectations!!!!!!
Just what analysts dream of hearing.
***All forecasts were adjusted upwards yesterday.***
The Market went bat-sheet crazy and the SP gapped-up hugely from the open closing up in the 80's.
A gap-up! Expect more to come from the SP :)
The recovery is on and gathering strength. Crisis in the SP appears over. It will /should climb from here on-in.
Terrific dividends beckon too. All divisions improving dramatically.
All coming good. No longer to be derisively known as a dog of a share! :)
Phtm is doing a 'Ukranian' and fighting back!!!!
" Have not found the 27m prediction for next year yet!"
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The $27m revenue forecast is for the current trading year that concludes on Dec 31st this year 2022, not for "next year".
Next year's revenue forecast ending Dec 31st 2023 (which in all likelyhood will be adjusted after this year's figures are known) is for $40m.
ie.,
Revenue:
2022 (Forecast) $27.1m (almost 55% increase above 2021)!!
2023 (Forecast) $40.6m (almost 50% increase over 2022)!!!
It's hard as hell for PI's to get up to date trading forecasts first hand, for every single stock in their portfolios as there's not always a clear, definitive RNS detailing the forecasts. Research Tree, for a fee, can provide In-House broker's consensus forecasts, based on how they interpret a stock's ambition to achieve a target is likely or not.
I subscribe to a data & algo driven package that provides the bare targets for me. I will also be buying one month's subscription to Research Tree later on this year (had a free trial offer earlier this year) for some key stocks of mine (£8 for a single month; I resent it because that's a secondhand cheap copy of another investing book from eBay I could buy for that amount! )
If I'm still about at that time, I will post WBI's brokers analysis, as it's illuminating reading the actual In-house broker's analysis as all the media journos lift them wholesale and often present it as their own work, sometimes complete with plagiarised sentences!
Research Tree copywrite theirs, but if I paraphrase when posting online then it's not infringing copywrite laws :)
It should be made mandatory as a condition of membership of the London Stock Exchange that all companies provide in house broker's forecasts on their websites/Or by RNS. Why do we meekly accept being kept in the dark????
Can't post after this post unless I' m free about this time of night.But I can browse, read-only in tea breaks for next fortnight.
" New article from Motley Fool more or less duplicating what they say every two weeks or so,..."
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Thanks for the heads-up L/Leeds - Found it :)
First, it's by Roland Head who's a good bloke. He always answers my written questions and requests. Checked out his screening selections elsewhere and he's performed well over the past half dozen years. He has a quiet demeanour in his writing. Not given to boasting or exaggeration.
I have a lot of time for HIS views. He's not full-time Motley Fool, as he does freelance jobs earning his crust from other sources.
Pleased you alerted to that latest article as it digs in to that massive net profit showing out of synch for last year's trading result. I'm now convinced that €88m land valuation should not have been entered up as net profit - it's a valuation of the Gabon property buy. Different matter if it had been sold for cash or somesuch.
Whatever, that article is the first and only one to expand a little on that €90m net profit for last year and it's cleared things up a lot.
I now need to see trading results going forward. Q2 might be published in early July with the full half year published in early August. That will tell all. Not big expectations for this yesr's net profit (only approx €200,000) so any 'beat' in achieving greater success may have a profound effect on the SP.
That article is the best yet in explaining the huge unexpected net profit in the annual results.
SP sentiment remained bullish during it's apparent quiet days just recently, but it is now rising from its slumber. I think it will continue.
About all I've time for, as hitting the road tomorrow so I'lloy be off grid for some time.
" Velo , give us a break! I don't know about CHARTS and chart speak my guess is not many will on here :O) "
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Oakey-dokey. Not a problem.
- Besides, I'm tied up elsewhere from Tuesday onwards for a fortnight or more.
Brad, Yes, I noticed the Fraud act post was ticked up too.
Jay - Well done!
I posted previously that "I think" the last several days resembles a flat base, and if so they usually convert to a strong bullish rally. So expect a continuance if it is that, and not a one-day reaction.
However, others think the SP could retrace somewhat from here, so just my opinion only, that recent performance resembles a 'flat base'. If it does rally from here then I'm getting my referencing from William O'Neil's CANSLIM methodology and/or Stan Weinstein's stage 2 rally. Nothing is written in stone - all is opinion.
(At the moment WBI qualifies for neither, apart from my opinion it's looking like it does a little bit :)
4 posts still highlighted under the chat window above, yet only 1 post visible for today.
Early this morning I did read a post from someone as their very 1st post (and registered just days ago) posting details of the fraud act, point by point, specifically relating to the 1,000% article as a fraud. And now it's gone.
Can't recall so many banned posters on one forum., whether due to operating multiple ID's or just one banned poster trying to regain membership via a new ID.
More used to seeing (temporary) bans for bad language etc.,