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"if you could work out the share price for next march. . . "
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Annual pivot points? Never heard of such a thing. Hmm.... makes me wonder :)
- But monthly pivot points should be doable.
PS. In the early years of personal computers, I built a simple averages table for the football pools. I could near enough guarantee 4 out of 8 draws almost every week but the other 4 had to guesses. Won several times but very low amounts.
Years later I used a similar system for the lottery. It "sort of" worked in the early years until the law of averages caught up over the years and rendered the whole thing null and void. Would often win £10 infrequently. But that could/ - would have been plain, dumb, blind luck kicking in.
Wound up doing horse racing - with little success but would take hours and hours inputting the data all day so gave it up.
Years later I heard on Saturday horse racing TV of somebody called The Computer Kid who often won.
If 4's turn up, hope you leave some for me Stoodio.
Tell the MM’s to put some up on the back shelf out back, until Velo turns up for them, ta very much. Tell ‘em I can pay cash if it helps.
——————
“ Don't get too excited yet. “
- Good advice Simon!
The reason I didn’t buy when sub 500, other than I can’t go long in a downtrend, was that I need to see if it stops no further than October’s all-time year low. My genuine fear is it could go screaming past - blowing out of the water all that I’m thinking is possible.
And of course Monday’s got to deliver the goods yet.
And that’s only the first rung on the latter. Plenty of pitfalls after that to overcome, with no guarantees if Monday does deliver what I'm looking for/
For Monday, I’m coming up with some v strange figures. Think I may have fat-fingered the input.
I need to see the SP close higher than tonight’s close, that’s all - not a big ask is it?
But my spreadsheet must have been on the mulled wine, because it says all will be well, and it’ll be game on, if the SP can get as close to 525 as possible.
Eh?
And if today has been a false positive it’s coming out with : Danger, be wary of the high 470’s showing it’s face!
What the hell happened to the 480’s - never mind the 490’s? ? ?
I’ll recheck (gotta have fouled up).
Meanwhile, just a handful of single pence higher than tonight’s close on Monday will keep me happy.
Not every day robleo, just at the close of the week.
They're just two of several areas of data that I manually input to the spreadsheet containing my copyrighted, fantastico, world-beating, Nostradamus-like formulae, I press click and hey presto out comes the answer.
Well 21 answers - look it's a computer it's leaving no stone unturned.
Then it turns round and says: It's one of those - defo!
When I type in: But which one?
It's says:
Don't ask me I'm not a clairvouyant - those are the mathematically high probabilities that might occur by the week's close, the rest is up to you, mate. But it is one of those. You'll see!
That's when I unplug it for answering back with cheek!
In other words, I self-calculate my own pivot points.
"Would you believe me if I told you I see an ASOS package being delivered nigh on every single day of my life :) "
- - - - -
LOL!
The first time I became aware of the ASOS brand was years before I read of their existence in the financial media. Didn't know who they were.
One day, on a fast dual carriageway a guy in serious cycling kit steamed past me with big white lettering down his black cycling tights saying ASOS.
I thought he's fast.
Not unusual to see sporty cyclists covered in brand names that have nothing to do with cycling so assumed it was for some business somewhere. Then another in the same lettering flashed past me, then another, all identical lettering.
Thought to myself I could catch the lot of them if I wanted to.. I just don't want to. I'm enjoying the ride.
Sometime later a clearly overweight lady overtook me on her black utility bicycle.
The first thing I noticed was that she had a front basket full of heavy groceries, and as she sailed past the second thing I noticed was a young child strapped into a rear seat!
I thought to myself:
Geez, I need to get myself some of those flashy ASOS pants.
Something I've only noticed due to being a contestant in this weekly competition is that when I come to update my spreadsheet the lowest price of the week AND the highest price of the week, both occurred on the same day
- today Friday; the end of the week.
What's unusual is something similar happened last week - again on a Friday.
Coincidence whilst the SP is under duress?
" And they do not generally correspond with the gloomy consensus across the news wires for 23."
- - - - - - -
Stoodio - Came across a devastating analysis by a top analyst reviewer he warns investors away from ASC (Paul Scott). He wins awards every other year, so he's good.
But he's behind a paywall (Stockopedia) [and he made a serious fortune in this stock many years ago]
- anyway, it's short piece but he reckons Asos could . . .
"also a question mark over survival? Starting to look wobbly, lost another CFO. I’m wondering could it end up going bust?"
Do you want to read the short piece or have you heard it all before? Wasn't keen on posting it as this forum is up to date with bad news.
PS. Look at the closing "mid-price".
Bid & Ask were 508.5 / 511, so you'd think mid-price would live up to its name and be somewhere in the middle of that gap - but it's the same as the ask!
Don't know if that's a typical computer glitch as happens often, or an indication :)
Hi Stoodio,
I had set my sights on my first tranche of shares SP to commence with a 4.
So those 490's had me twitching and questioning myself.
Only my inner critic prevented me from abandoning my battered discipline (no buying in a downtrend).
That's a bullish close today! - IMO.
Bears ruled down to mid-495's briefly, but the day ended as a win for bulls, as the bulls (buyers) succeeded in chasing the bears all the way back up.
Only a close on Monday, higher than tonight's close will confirm what I think is/ or might be developing.
Decent volume so no fluke.
Only thing is I skedaddle next week so can only watch from afar.
If on Monday, price closes lower than tonight's close, then IMO what I'm thinking all melts away and it's back to the drawing board.
But that was a clear defeat for the bears today!
All will get a chance for a reset in a couple of weeks, less than a month to go.
Preliminary half year Trading Update will be released approx around the 11th January with the actual full H1 published in March. But the market will get all it needs to know to judge Dark in the January trading update.
Excited?
:)
Thanks Stoodio, although I'm out of commission after this weekend, until the new year.
Been looking into valuations and seeing circa £8 to £9 intrinsic values and about a whole pound lower for consensus analysts' SP forecasts. for the current outlook. Or that is until the January update resets the bar.
I mention that because that recent spike in the SP that occurred from late October up to mid-November collapsed upon tagging £8.
Coincidence? Kinda all fits together :)
- £8 and gone was the margin of safety, so it collapsed.
Can't disagree with your evaluations, Simon.
However, can't find any mention of anything resembling a profit warning in the only single RNS updating on this current trading year.
The only mention of this current trading year appears in the final year end results RNS under a section called -
FY23 Outlook
“ H1 loss driven by the usual profit phasing and exacerbated by elevated markdown to clear stock resulting from the change in commercial model, with the contractual freight rate decline year-on-year and cost mitigations expected to mostly benefit the second half “
- - - - - -
- So he talks about a H1 loss as ‘the usual profit phasing’ (because both H1 and H2 last year came in as losses?) but does not issue a profit warning nor warn that H1 loss will impact the H2 result.
So no profit warning and a reluctance to either admit or forecast a loss for the full year, only for H1 as if it’s perfectly normal, but it’s only been normal for the last year only.
He’s yet to admit a loss in H1 will also occur for H2 so until he issues a clear and present profit warning (with fiscal amounts) there’s not a lot to calculate forward.
Is he asking for the benefit of doubt? Because until he does issue a profit warning I have to regard any lowish H1 results as still recoverable by the full year end.
- - - - - - - -
Whatever, been looking at Broker's in-house analyst buy/sell recommendations and have the consensus view to hand.
Whilst all may look as dark as sin there are still a significant number of brokers analysts still recommending to Buy, but overall the Sell analysts lead and currently hold sway.
Thought it might offer some respite if I post those below. And will mark it as the start point to update either every month, or occasionally to see if the number of analysts have increased the buy side or the other way -
- - - - - - - -
ANALYST COVERAGE OF ASC:
Strong Sell = 3
Sell . . . . .. =7
HOLD = 14
Strong Buy = 4
Buy . . . . . = 3
So a total of 10 sells v 7 buys currently, just adds to the gloom.
But both sides lose outright to the number of Hold analysts advising to sit tight and do nothing.
Hi simon1367 - and thanks for responding to my plea. Appreciated.
Just what I was appealing for!
On the whole I agree with your honest and forthright evaluation. That’s why I appealed for those who had opposing views to respond. Not getting the time to fully research ASC from scratch (nor have I read all the relevant RNS's yet
- and doubt I will until after Christmas
- so tempting to wait for a fresh trading update in January to reveal the ‘new black’, then all of us will be on the same page.
I assumed there had been profit warnings etc., during the dire, huge retrace that commenced back in spring 2021.
Hence my call for those who had doubts to reveal what news they had.
Otherwise, I prefer to let the January trading update clear the air to reveal all.
Mostly agree with your analysis apart from the misdirection in the market forecast estimates which I will explain in a moment why.
My viewing of the balance sheet was one of count the red flags and raising hands over my eyes in horror. I expect most investors on this forum have had day after day of constant ‘bad news’ and were well aware of the pitfalls. Hence my reluctance to ram down their throats all the issues that I see currently abound in the balance sheets.
However, this is where I take issue with your interpretation:
“ I'd be interested to know where the 'markets estimated forecasts' came from. They appear to be historical and so, in my view, inaccurate. “
They are not inaccurate.
In effect, yes all market forecasts are historical - and have to be as otherwise every sleight-of-hand fraudster and miscreant would mislead the market by obtaining funds and investment they would otherwise be denied by setting out to deliberately over-promise and under-deliver.
Hence the market strictly does not allow CEO’s to ask for the company forecasts to be adjusted down so that their missed forecasts are papered over.
The regulatory authorities are clear on that. Those who over-promise or fail to achieve their forecasts can adjust their projections by issuing new guidance as a Profit Warning
- but the target forecast remains in place so that all market participants can see the company has failed to meet its objectives!
Similar applies when the targets will be beaten and will likely overshoot.
Then an RNS must be published advising that new guidance shows the forecast will be a ‘beat’ and likely to be significantly higher than current forecasts.
I think brand-new forecasts are only allowed at the H1 conclusion, but not sure.
Repeat: Every target that is either beaten or likely to fall short must be issued as new guidance in an RNS update. Otherwise, everyone would be daft not to promise the moon at the outset and then some months later say: Oops sorry we got the decimal point in the wrong place can we please resubmit as it all looks rather embarrassing now.
Instead, you offer an RNS profit warning - or a RNS significant increase to the outstanding forecast.
Hi Stoodio,
Haven’t seen you in awhile on ‘that’ metals stock. (Ready for the big push in Jan & Feb in that stock? :)
Merry Christmas - and hope you’ve been keeping well.
My interest in Asos goes back to 2014-era when I was first alerted by an article saying something like: If you had invested £3k upon the launch of Asos you would be worth £3m today. When it subsequently retraced alarmingly (I think after it’s almost annual event of employing fire-starters and burning down a major warehouse) to approx £21-ish.
I oohed and ahhed, and instead watched it over the years run up to £70 odd!
Did the same oohing and ahhing in the big March Covid crash from £7 odd up to £60 odd! And did nothing. LOL!
Only discovered you’d taken a position in ASC the other day, when attempting to speed-read through older posts. Hope you’re talent for spotting undervalued stocks still runs true here.
I’m not in here yet - the trends won’t let me, just yet :)
... And if you're not on the list you're just the the kid who's the sidekick, a hero worshipping wannabe of the black jacket gang!
Get yourself on the list if you're 'ard enough to frighten the beejezus out of LSE
Yeah Jack Dawson hasn't been here in years either. He left LSE altogether. A damn good poster he was. His contributions are well missed. Laughing to myself that I'm No:1 on BT in Fleccy's list. I've posted there just the once in 2022! LOL!
Yep! If you get on the list you get to wear a black leather jacket, sat at the back of the class with your legs splayed out blocking the gangway making the teacher walk around you. Yeah the Fonz! Don't forget to bring a comb and some brylcream to join our club and you get to grab the best girls at the prom whilst they singing Sandy - You're the one that I want eh eh eh!
@ Android101 - Hee hee. You're obviously referring to:
PUMP
OR
DUMPED
- I often appear on those lists but get picked up as an innocent victim of the algos due to the length of my posts and the number of posts generated. Sometimes have a contest with others for the top spot bragging rights in a forum for a laugh. Using phrases like: fill your boots or ten bagger, shoots you up the lists instantly. Haven't looked at it in ages :)
Am I on there somewhere on the latest baddest vilains to beware of?
Here’s what the market estimated forecasts are for this current trading year ending 2023
- and the following year ending 2024.
They need to be compared to what’s gone before to fully savour the turnaround in the estimated forecasts to come. Especially the glorious 2024 estimate. The only question is, can the market trust the veracity of the estimates from the company, or do you have any more up to date insights based on facts that counter the estimates?
So, I’ll post a quick resume of past glories/disasters first and then the two forecasts:
Revenue for past couple of years:
31/8/17 = £1924m
2018 = £2417m
2019 = £2734m
2020 = £3264m
2021 = £3911m
2022 = £3937m
See anything untoward in the most recent years Revenue achieved?
No?
Neither do I.
So let’s look at the forecast estimated Revenues for the next 2 years:
Revenue forecasts:
2023 = £4067m
2024 = £4424m
Again nothing to alert you to expect trouble. In fact, where did the pandemic make an impact on Revenue on any of the above prior years? It didn’t. No dips at all anywhere. Revenue is still growing year-on-year!
- - - - - -
So it must show up in the bottom line then, the Net Profits? -
Net Profit:
31/8/17 = £64.1m
2018 = £82.4m
2019 = £24.6m
2020 = £113.0m
2021 = £128.0m
2022 = X £30.8m LOSS! X
Well apart from a dip in 2019, only last year showed where the trouble was.
So is it all down to oversold sentiment? Let’s see if the forecast estimate Net Profits show anything resembling a recovery. As the SP appears locked in a viscous downtrend there surely must be worse to come -
Net Profit Forecasts:
2023 = £20.6m
2024 = £52.7m
Well, this current year is at least declaring some Net Profits albeit the poorest showing in recent years - but look at year ending 2024! Surely that denotes a confirmed expectation of back to substantial Net Profits and well on the way to rivalling prior achievements should that trend continue?
A lot to like in next Year’s forecast but is the market questioning the veracity of the estimated figures will ever be achieved by maintaining a falling SP valuation? Over to you.
What do you know in recent news that will derail the next 2 years positive forecasts?
Part 2 (concludes) >
. . . Should the SP retrace to the £5 border then it becomes even more enticing, but a pullback into the 400’s even if it’s only the upper 490’s would qualify IMO.
- And then I would monitor it daily with my lower, shorter-term trends lest a small bull trend escape my attention.
It would still be risky so any purchase by me would initially be small scale as there’s many a false breakout that comes to naught. Could just be another trough to match the prior high, before another even lower trough ensues, but I think there is a case to be made that the long-term trend is starting to resemble a plane coming into land. Is the trend, bending?
But as of tonight, the situation is still a clear no-buy from me. But a nice situation may be developing anyway. I’m keen to see how it turns out.
=======
Might have time tonight to reply to your earlier request for fuller details of the trading forecasts, that the market is already expecting for '23 and '24
- if not, then will post them tomorrow.