Thanks rxdav & Nige,
" I concur with your assessment that the decline is likely over - but would prefer to say nearly over -"
- And I defer to your more accurate description of the true state of affairs. There will be the usual requirement of climbing out of oversold condition initially, and only after then, is it safe to pop your head out of the tank gun turret - but by then it would generally be apparent to all.
" I have also noticed that the BT share price has dropped for the 5th week consecutively, with this week being the smallest of drops compared to the other weeks."
- Yes indeed, the firesome, sheer cliff-face-like drop in SP since the day before the results were announced to this Friday's close are just simply breathtaking in its ferocity. I regard it all as part and parcel of the latest and current down trend that started at the v beginning of early December '18.
Away for 8 days solid from Tues next week. So if the SP ends up at £1 - it won't mean I've dissappeared as unwilling to to face the music :) :) it'll be because, if I can post, it might only be possible at around midnight etc due to heavy commitments during the day and evenings.
That Youtube, High Noon theme tune link below, doesn't open when I clicked it! Duh.
Well it's over. This decline. IMO the bears lost the war today. I'm prepared to be that conclusive.
I really should wait for further confirmation, really should, but I'm sure it's a done deal.
Don't think you'll see 180's for some time yet. And only if and when, the new uptrend that's about to get underway, concludes after it does get underway.
So busy preparing a suitable, cheeky, buy-limit order for Monday in case of another 'flash crash' as happened for a few seconds on opening today - which accounts for that 190 low - and which no one in the world could have taken advantage of manually, as it was over in mere seconds - you'd have needed a pre-prepared computer limit-buy order in place or one of Fleccy's algobots to participate.
I'm expecting all next week to be mostly bullish days for BT - but only gently so, as still deep, deep, v deep in oversold condition, so still dangerous.
It's so deep I had to bring up on screen 20 years of price action to find another occasion to match the ferocity of this relentless decline - and that was an oversold condition that occurred in 2009!
BT does have a characteristic of reasonably, but swiftly, going straight high up to overbought from these mega oversold occasions; but that's bye the bye. Don't count on that cherry on top.
Monday might be a bitty wobbly, so setting that computer buy limit v low but will additionally buy manually - but not seriously expecting the v low computer buy limit to trigger as IMO I reckon the bears are as of tonight suffering from seller exhaustion.
A beautiful closing price pattern tonight - a long legged Doji. And that signifies indecision with a tendency towards a trend change in direction, to that which currently prevails. Long-legged because the bears couldn't hold on to that 190 and were chased all the way back up by the bulls (buyers) to Fibonacci's retracement level.
So a slow climb out of oversold, commencing Monday. However, such has been the monster damage done by this long destructive decline I'm thinking not much better than 205p short term - and that could use up most of it's energy getting past 200. A big question mark remains on whether 200 is too much too soon at the moment. The damage done by this decline is lasting, so I'm not expecting fireworks. Nor am I convinced getting back above 200 is a foregone conclusion. But then again there is that little matter of an outstanding account to be closed
- the gap down from 219 to 213 in early May; the only way to close that account is - to go visit it, so a potential 220 visit when the SP is strong and healthy enough.
Maybe not on this occasion, as only expecting a mild recovery initially. Having said that, I'm also convinced in near-future months the bears will be back, tooled-up for another big push, but for now I believe they've had enough.
The bears gunslinger lies face down in the dusty main street with a bullet dead centre between the eyes -
Mike. A friendly heads-up.
Be careful of what you post on social forums. You are being watched, monitored and your material 'recorded'. Edward Snowdon has fully detailed the warehouses they have in the USA where they stored so much digital content culled from social forums and emails, texts etc., that they can't process it so are using bots to further filter down key words to find persons that might put them, the US, in harms way.
Key words in your post that have probably already found their way into their databases is the line "... somebody has to get rid of...... " and (insert name of an elected state leader you mentioned).
Think I'm exaggerating? Do you know you are now in my old spot of 17th worst person on VOD for "ramping"?
I have been "promoted" up to 10th place. Longish is still the Fonz in 1st place.
And I'm No:1 on BT. Never win anything so 'pleased' to win that one.
If you were here when Pumpandump was being discussed you'd have seen that virtually 90% of all posters on here have their log-in ID's advertised without their permission on another site and falsely accused as derampers engaged in possible fraudulent activity for personal financial gain.
And that's all before 5G kicks in. With superior IP detection they may even be able to publish your real name in the future.
Now that's small scale where you and I are being monitored and accused falsrly on another site.
Just think what the big boys are capable of.
"The perception of BT is just the opposite it is of lower market share and lower profits."
Avro, was that a typo? Did you mean lower REVENUE instead of lower profits?
Profits are up and forecast by both the company and market to continue rising over the next 2 years.
It's revenue that is down and forecast to continue being down over the next 2 years.
" but she said she'd Bobbitt me if I took any cash out of our house move stash lol."
Ha! You'd better not keep tabs on BT's SP then, if the bears break right through the 190-195 area as it'll become a bingo game bag of, pick me a number - any number will do, as you just wouldn't be able to resist :)
Here you go, Fleccy. Found a 6 minute video versioin which they must have negotiated to allow through. It's a bit blurry.
But there's enough in that 6 minute clip still to convict Cramer, if someone was so minded. The version I had ran to 30 minutes or so. But there's more than enough here to reveal how manipulation and outright fraud gets conducted.
In my old version he claims to bring any company in the world, anywhere, to it's knees with just $5million bucks. Think he does touch on that a bit in this shorter version.
It's titled "Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated".
But should really be entitled: "Jim Cramer Explains How HE Manipulates The Stock Market".
Here's the vid link -
" I don't care what anyone says, any company's price can be manipulated to exactly where the market makers want, with relatively little outlay in their scheme of things. I spoke to a guy who works for a share dealing company and he stated that he wont invest because of what he's seen happening, unfortunately he didn't share the detail of what puts him off."
I agree with that Fleccy.
Lost the link after downloading a video onto my old computer before it went t!ts up, but I had a video of Jim Cramer foolishly bragging to a young reporter how in his fund manager days he corrupted stock prices to bring a company to its knees. There is an article somewhere that gives a written account of his bragging - but I seem to recall posting all that on here the other year or so, ago.
Anyway the young interviewer was more switched on than Cramer and asked Cramer isn't what he just confessed to, a criminal act? The video was worth it to see Cramer's face gurning for dear life - caught out by a smart kid as he desperately tried to convince the interviewer he meant "He knows of people" who'd done it - and not himself.
Then he couldn't help himself. The kid accepts his version - but then Cramer turns to camera and gurns and winks and winks some more until his head almost comes off, to confirm to the viewer that he means himself all along. His lawyers got Youtube to pull the video. But I had it on my old computer. See if I can find the article with the written account of the incident.
To combat those algos I rely on trend lines. They tell the truth no matter what is being promoted in the media. But of course if one wakes up to a massive gap-up or gap-down, right from the off, nothing on earth can save you.
So, it's Thursday and the SP closed at 194p. Pistols at dawn then - no noon! Cue the theme tune to High Noon.
Friday last week it closed . . @ 196 - Tuesday 28th May it closed @ 196 - Wed it closed @ 196
But the bears must have been reading my posts and tonight the SP closed on 194p. It's a direct challenge! What's to do?
On trend lines, and every indicator known to mankind, I don't have a leg to stand on.
Rxdav is 100% correct below in his assertion of "... as there is still visible downward pressure...." Couldn't agree more, there is! Don't have a hope of trend lines turning from tonight's close. The bears have parked up for the night, right up against BT's front door. I have only one chance to escape. And if that chance fails to show, then I'll become very pessimistic with the SP failing to halt this decline.
And that chance is Fibonacci's retracement level - his best one IMO @ 194p
It can not be seen by trend lines. It can not be seen by candlesticks. It happens by Harry Potter style smoke and mirrors. If I've seen it work once successfully I've seen it work successfully a thousand times. And I'm calling on it tonight.
I've seen it fail too. Loads of times. And it's the last chance saloon when it fails. Carry on 'well past' 194 closing, and the world is the bear's oyster. Which leaves me and any potential buyers of BT with two choices.
1) Buy @ 194p - the floor - if you believe it will hold or
2) Step aside (the sensible option) and let the SP do it's stuff and just follow the trend all the way down - god knows where - 150 whatever and buy when the trend bends, and starts heading north. But buy in tranches to eliminate false reversals.
The bad guy is walking down the centre of the street and he's calling my name for insulting him with 194. The bartender hands me a gun and holster and from nowhere a guitar player steps up and starts strumming forlornly:
Do not forsake me oh my darling
I do not know what fate awaits me
I only know I must be brave
And I must face a bear who hates me
Or lie a coward, a craven coward
Or lie a coward in my grave
Do not forsake me oh my Fibonacci retracement
Look at that big hand move along
Nearin' high noon
Do not forsake me oh my darling
He made a vow while in state prison
Vowed it would be my life or his, and
I'm not afraid of death, but, oh
What shall I do if you leave me?
Do not forsake me oh my Fibonacci retracement
- 200 failed when I posted I thought it shouldn't. Now it's 194. Will I now have to answer for my sins?
Bring on tomorrow. I'm ready to step out into that sunlit dusty main street.
Just wanted to list up the past couple of year's revenue for easier perusal and to get a handle on how concerned, or not, investors should be on annually declining revenue, to finish off the initial post on increasing net profits.
Year ending March 2017 peaked with the highest revenue @ £24,082m, so from that point onwards -
2017 = £24,082m
2018 = £23,746m ................ (Down by £336m)
2019 = £23,459m ................ (Down by another £287m)
Forecast for -
2020 = £23,096m ............... (Down by another £363m)
Forecast for -
2021 = £23,021m ............... (Down by another £75m)
Just a small amount decrease each year. No biggie - falling only slightly each year, yes?
BUT wait! - Just look at the cumulative total in lost revenue from 2017 to forecasts up to 2021
- it's a cumulative decline of = £1,061m - Over ONE £BILLION in lost revenue - due, in over 4 years!
That must be impacting on the wider market's view; even though net profit as posted originally earlier today, has never stopped INCREASING from that date to this, and forecast into the future for even more significant rises to come.
I think that must now be the 101st possible reasons up for consideration and attention, on finding out why the wider market hates BT - Is it decling revenue? Does the market want everything, despite being handed over increasing net profits?
Part 2 concludes with -
Also if you think UK investors have a hard time wondering why the market is ignoring BT's fundamentals the next section that followed commenced with: "BT’s Fundamentals Deserve a Higher Valuation
We believe the market is punishing BT’s stock too harshly for some legitimate concerns...."
So even in the US, interested parties over there, are no wiser why there is a fear of investing in BT.
The 11 page report's final para concludes with: "... Also, the stock yields 7.2%, with a dividend that we believe is sustainable. This means SHAREHOLDERS ARE BEING PAID TO WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO RECOGNIZE BT’s VALUE. This is currently the second-highest yield in European telecom and higher than Verizon’s (VZ) or AT&T’s (T) in the United States. With the stock’s continued pullback, BT moved into 5-star territory on May 18, making it one of only two 5-star-rated European telecom companies we cover right now."
And in no uncertain terms at the very commencement of that article the first para concludes with: "BT’s stock price has been hammered because of issues at other units, including regulatory issues and concerns regarding its underfunded pension. However, we believe the market has overreacted to these issues and BT’s fundamental value is being overlooked".
So all-in-all, some of the top rated analysts across the pond are of the opinion BT's value is being overlooked and undervalued. I think most longs in BT are already in accord with that view - it's just that well phew! it's taking one helluva long time - in years and years - for that to be recognised by the wider market.
(2 part post):
If, interested, the concluding part to that portion cut-off in Pacey's article paste below, concludes with:
" The share price slump has pushed BT’s yield to above 7%, making it one of the top yielders in the FTSE 100, but there is speculation that BT will be forced to cut its dividend, which last year was unchanged at 15.4p per share.
and goes on to finish with -
" Jansen said this month as BT announced full-year results that “we have a lot of work to do to … deliver long term sustainable value to our shareholders”. Last year’s final results showed A FALL OF 1% in REVENUE to £23 billion, and BT expects revenue TO FALL 2% in this financial year".
(That last sentence confirming the continuation of a declining revenue, for awhile yet, as mentioned previously).
Discovered that the in-depth, 11 page, A4 analysis of BT that was one of the finest analysis I've seen on BT last year, was published on the US .com site of Morning Star, (2018 on 22nd June by a Allan C. Nichols CFA) entitled:
BT'S FUNDAMENTAL VALUE IS OVERLOOKED and who has been specialising in analysing BT since 2010 and has numerous articles by him on BT and VOD. (I prefer his articles as he heads up the analysing teams). He appears to specialise in those two.
I printed it off in full last year as it's a keeper and analyses BT's likely progress up to 2022 /23, so it's still current, and I'd recommend it to all long term investors in BT, as a copy/paste/ or print-off.
In part reply to Avro's query about the Corbyn effect, here's a para devoted to Corbyn from that article that I've highlighted in CAPS above (you'll need to sign-in on the free membership to read it in full) on just that subject with the impact Corbyn could have on profits -
"... Clearly, BT’s free cash flow has benefited from the steadily declining tax rate. We model the company as if currently passed tax rate declines will occur. ONE RISK IS JEREMY CORBYN, the leader of the U.K.’s Labour Party. He is leading in the polls, and if he is elected as the next prime minister, there is a good chance that taxes not only won’t be reduced but instead might be increased. If the U.K.’s tax rate were to increase to 25% starting in fiscal 2020, our fair value estimate would drop about 9%. Free cash flow after the dividend with a 25% tax rate would decline by almost GBP 400 million in fiscal 2022. While this is significant, it wouldn’t require a cut in the dividend. Of course, an increase to a higher tax rate would be even more damaging. Even though a 25% tax rate would push free cash flow slightly negative in fiscal 2020, we-don’t-think-management-would-cut-the-dividend. However, it might choose to hold-it-steady-for-a-longer-period...."
Also if you think UK investors have a hard time wondering why the market is ignoring BT's fundamentals the next section that followed commenced with: "BT’s Fundamentals Deserve a Higher Valuation" -
"We believe the market is punishing BT’s
Hi Avro thanks, you're welcome - and to all, for the appreciative feedback.
- Also condolences on your recent loss last year. Last year? It must still feel as if, like it happened last week.
Was going to reply "dunno" as unaware that Telecommunications are on Corbyn's target list. Had assumed his interest was in basic utilities like electricity, gas and water, (railways?) where they have active watchdog ombudsman organisations and those consumer linked organisations that appear on TV news programmes as commenter's when interviewed by the presenter on rising utility price complaints.
Doesn't seem to be much of a movement in complaints about telephone bills as they're all conveniently packaged into broadband packages, so little mileage politically for Corbyn and co, so agree with rxdav's initial reply and subsequent posts by others that followed.
I think BT will be safe from additional, further state interference, save for the current Ofcom set-up.
But I do know a man who does hold an opinion on Corbyn's effect on BT, should he get elected Which I'll copy paste in a post next, in response to Pacey's Morning Star article.
Also, wanted to highlight the declining y-o-y revenue by each year, to put it all in to perspective (in a v short post) but will post that separately, as it's not much of a decline each year but does add up to quite a lot over say 4/5 years or so; maybe it's that, the single absence of just one forecast of expectant rising revenue either standing still or better - increasing, rather than a continuance of all forecasts into the near future all showing a small decline each year in revenue, to continue awhile longer.
Yes, agreed. Barring a continuance of the rabid fall in US markets tonight, spreading contagion to overseas markets, I see no reason why the 130's won't put in an appearance v soon. VOD commenced rising out of oversold condition on Tuesday, so is good to go. However, I don't at this point see much further than the 130's, with 131 now reversing polarity from support to resistance and thus now becomes your enemy to overcome.
And additionally, because at tonight's closing SP, the P/E ratio is only marginally below the industry average; so the reason I don't see much further than 130's at this point in time is that I regard 136p-ish as more or less in line with the Industry market average with regards to the P/E ratio.
VOD's forward P/E is PE 15.7 just marginally below the Industry average of PE 16.5 (Which equates to 136p-ish).
Hence my view until something 'new' appears on the horizon the best that can be expected is that 130's will become the SP's new home for the time being. There is an upside to that though.
With 136p-ish being what I consider fair price; as regards average PE ratios, you'd have to have a damn good reason to drive the SP below and out of the 120's just as you would need a good reason to drive the SP well up into the 140's and beyond. (Silly high PE's are for hot stock/high flyers only, not mature businesses with impressive divi yields).
- Apart from once in a generation complete rule-breakers such as Amazon.
130's area is now (IMO) the SP's, Little House on the Prairie home, where it will camp out until that is, something 'new' maybe, is revealed about VOD.
Again all IMO only.
I'm of the opinion that the upper area of 190 - 195 ie.,194p-ish, is where the downtrend might falter. All trends are against that thought, and it still has to come out of oversold (VOD came out of oversold on Tuesday, so I'm expecting it has a chance of getting back up into 130's v soon).
So, first the SP has to come out of 'panic driven' oversold condition, before even thinking of attempting to attack the (now resistance) of 200p.
In the meantime I'm holding the thought that where 200 failed - 194p won't. It's very close so won't have long to wait to find out.
The SP has butted up, closing against 196 and no further all week, since last Friday - so 195 is holding it's own so far (as a closing price) at an interesting juncture tonight.
First off, BT did well to avoid the general market malaise today, which shows that a share that already has much of a market's dissatisfaction baked into the price is often somewhat protected from general market drawdown's or suffer to a lesser extent, where more highly, generously rated P/E Shares feel the pinch that much quicker.
Talking of PE's, BT's is ridiculously low. The forward P/E ratio for BT currently stands tonight at only P/E 7.87 !!!
The Industry average is P/E 16.5 (with the FTSE @ P/E 13.6). In other words it would have to be slightly more than double what it is tonight, just to be confirmed as 'merely average' to the industry in price, and would mean BT sporting an SP of circa 410p! - Just to be plain average to the industry, no more!
Well it's going to take some time before BT can lose it's "cheap" tag and be considered average for it's sector. (VOD by the way, low as it's SP has fallen, is only marginally below that average P/E ratio).
So by any yardstick BT's SP is ridiculously cheap. Value writ large. Yet the market is unimpressed hence the divi is now @ a forward yield of 7.64%.
Yet there are no takers. 7 point odd P/E and 7 point odd divi yield. The 'Deadly Sevens' as an Investors Chronicle article stated last year (should be Googlable for free).
Net profit for the year just ended was £2,159m -
but look; next year ending March 2020 is forecast to come in at £2,444m
and the year after ending March 2021, is due to come even better at £2,540m.
So what's not to like (well apart from a bit of debt)?
From the low of 2017, the net profit has increased year on year, every year since then, and increases yet further this current year and again next year. So repeat: what's not to like? Could it be the lack of growth in the revenue? Since that low in 2017 the revenue has decreased every subsequent year, and despite increased net profits forecast for the next two years - both of those years are forecast to come in less, sequentially, so that from 2017 to 2021 revenue will be seen to be on a steady non-stop (so far) decline. The metrics for BT mostly all show good value, but some are beginning to curl at the edges. But here we are at 196p and it's still deep in oversold condition.
I'm feeling comfortable sitting behind 195, as I'm thinking 195 - 190 may be where this current down trend halts or even reverses, even if only for a short period. But if 189 appears, then all those suggesting 180's, 160's, 150's, 130's etc., etc., would be in with a shot in the coming months and year as 189p would confirm my worst fears that 200 has gone the way of 300, as it did 400, ie., gone and into history.
Science fiction film on Sunday, called: Arrival. If you saw it, did you see the 'scene that mattered'?
Wasn't going to watch it, but it was on in the background whilst having a TV dinner. A colonel was introducing a language expert and physics expert to their new teams, set up to find a way to communicate with aliens who had landed on earth. They'd tried everything to no avail hence the introduction of the new team leaders/ experts.
The colonel asks the struggling team: "Well have you tried patterns, numbers - Fibonacci?"
What did he say? FIBONNACI !?! The fork nearly missed my mouth! That had my attention.
Well now I didn't want to watch it - I had to watch it :)
Never seen Fibonacci referenced in any science fiction film nor any other kind of film, a first. Observed in nature, science, even NASA have been known to use it, but more commonly known nowadays, for its deployment in the stock market.
Couldn't believe my eyes when having a cuppa and saw 195 come up. So soon. And so fast since the topside of 200.
So a question for the weekend.
The question has to be asked, have these latest annual results sent the market in BT, into panic? Is it because they believe the divi will be cut, so are moving out ahead of that? As the SP has mostly done nothing but fall since 2016, hard to pin it on any one thing, except to say the market wants its pound of flesh before it'll "settle" at what it regards as a fair price. The SP is for defo, deep in oversold. That will end at some point soon. Was it for political reasons today? So when 195 showed up (196 by close), I thought time for a quick review back to late March early April 2009 where you could pick up BT for circa 50p the all time low, at the depth of the last major stock market crash, and took readings from that date to the all time high at the beginning of 2016.
Buying BT in early April 2009 and selling 7 years later in early 2016 would have made anyone mega money. Mega money and BT? Yes, forgive me for mentioning both words in the same sentence.
Last night I posted of regarding 195 down to 190 as being the next major support area of immense strength IMO. Perhaps even acting as a brake, and no sooner had I posted that, than here we are in the blink of an eye, at the very foothills of entering that major support area. That is just not cricket! It's as if the bears had read my post and said:
Ha! That's nothing to us mate, just you wait until tomorrow.
So using Fibonacci Retracement levels over a 7 year time span, I thought what does ol' Fibbo the mathematical monk from the 12th century say? and wheeled him out.
- and his 'best' of all (to my mind) the "golden ratio" of 61.8% reading, lands smack bang in that 195-190 area, specifically at 194p.
So I now stretch my neck out an extra mile, added to the mile I already stretched it last night, and offer up the thought - was that the floor just closed this evening? If, additionally, the bullish period as I see it, next week IMO, of 28th May to 6th June is kind enough to be in play as I intimated last night, then it could just help save me from a right milkshake soaking come next week.
Is this the floor? (Temporary floor, that is). There said it. Most unwise. Get your milkshakes ready for next week in reply should it not be (from MacD's - they're cheaper there; banana or vanilla please).
Well disappointing to actually close on 198. Bummer! Thought maybe it would at least close for just once on 200 before even considering closing lower. It's never closed on 200 whether May last year, or May this year. Not even a close on 199! From an end of day closing perspective, it's hopped straight over 200 like it wasn't there. These things as everyone knows, aren't binary. An SP doesn't have to go up or down sequentially. 3 days or so of intraday visits to 200 itself, although never closing on it, was just leaving tell-tale damaging scars of serious warnings.
So, contrarily, wouldn't be surprised to see it close above 200 next week, even if it turns out to be temporary. That's what we expect prices do, zig and zag. Also there's the small matter of that gap down from 219 to 213-ish on the 8th and 9th of this month. So stick my neck out a mile, and say here and now, that although I nor anyone else, knows where the SP will be in the future, I feel more than certain that at some point, however briefly, the SP will have to travel up over 200 just to close the gap from 213 up to 219, even if it did that as an intraday visit only, and reverted to a bearish trend. Could take months, weeks, days, or even a full year, but it will one day - do that, I feel for sure - whatever it goes on to do, afterwards.
But the truth is, closing below 200 is a heart-breaker. That's what goes in the history records. And casts a very, very, dark shadow on any beliefs that 200 is sacrosanct from now on. I feel this isn't the last we've seen of 200. I maintain as I sink beneath the waves, that loss of 200 is too clean. It is a strong support area. It will come back, however briefly.
So, what the hell next? Well first, IMO, there's the slimmest of chances that May 28th to June 6th (don't ask :) could provide the opportunity for the SP to behave bullishly. Secondly for longer term, and never felt comfortable musing aloud over potential support areas BELOW 200, as it felt like tempting fate, but 195 down to 190 has some serious properties of support, and I would expect at least short term anyway, it will act as a brake, however temporary or otherwise.
And If that goes? Well it's back on that long down trend road the SP has been on since the beginning of 2016. BT did actually leave that road for the better half of 2018 until the beginning of December. For myself I'm letting the trend be my friend in guidance - and for 3 years now it's been no friend of BT the SP.
BT the company, however, is an entirely different matter. One day 'value'-metric companies will step back into the frame.