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Remember the above post-heading from the first week of January, where I expanded on my reasons for expecting a delay/resistance to SP progression around the 111/114p area?

Well now's the time to reveal the upside to that same area. Once past that type of resistance (on this occasion from late Dec to mid January-ish) then these 'overhead supply' areas of resistance, now reverse and act as strong support on any attempts to drive the SP down; should the SP find itself driven that far down again. If so, that's as far as the SP could get in any short term market driven bear attack before recovering - IMO.

I stand by that assertion, but should bears ever drive the SP below that area and hold it below that level, then all bets are off and it's devil takes the hindmost.

However, given the increasingly buoyant earnings fundamentals, It would would appear highly unlikely that scenario could play out with any ferocity. Then again that 'funny' close today (Tuesday) means the 111/114 area is my personal safety net, from which I will be physically incapable of showing a sad, fearful, long face.

- So any bear attacks would have to break well below 111/114 to break me :) And good luck with that! LOL :)

Looks like this is going to be another 2-pager post to me:

In the RNS published on 30th October last year, for the Q1 trading update, were a couple of noteworthy references, one on the expectant steady future growing contributions from Thaba, including a nod to record breaking general production before any Thaba contributions are included.

Contained in one or two sentences, the Thaba JV guidance can be deconstructed to obtain multiple period increases in its production, which to my mind indicates that obtaining a fair estimate of likely future production values will in most cases likely be below the true potential, unless your info is at board level clearance. Here’s why:

Three sentences in the RNS I’m referring to –

Commenting on the general highlights of Q1 the CEO said:

“ . . . This marks the highest quarterly PGM production for the group SINCE INCEPTION! ”

Since inception!!! So, the best ever Q1 production results in the company’s entire history!

There was no indication to expect that was a one-off – so the H1 results to be released circa 26th January or thereabouts, should please the market by any yardstick, assuming Q2 to Dec, continued in near similar fashion.

On the Thaba JV, it confirmed the first products from Thaba had arrived just too late to be included in the Q1 results, here –

“. . . First chrome and PGM production were achieved DURING THE PERIOD, and products were dispatched POST PERIOD-END! “

I’m taking that confirmation of Thaba’s FIRST products only being received “after” the books had closed on Q1

- therefore, Q2 must be off to a flying start should a) The general record-breaking production of Q1 carry on, into Q2 for Oct, Nov & Dec’25 - but with the addition of a full Q2 period contribution from Thaba to be included!

But! It gets better with this statement:

“…The commissioning of the Thaba JV project was completed during Q1 and is continuing to RAMP-UP, with STEADY-STATE production expected in Q3…”

January is the commencement of the Q3 period, but the RNS doesn’t guess whether steady-state production will be achieved in early Q3, ie., January, or maybe by mid Q3 (ie., February) or by well into Q3.

So, putting it all together, Thaba productions of its first products get accounted for in all of Q2 (Up to Dec ’25). So only by the end of Q3 will Thaba production be up to fully efficient speed. And as said, not all of Q3, it might take well into Q3 before hitting full stride.

Which brings us to Q4 (April to year end June). Only that month, and that month alone, will give a true, clean indication of Thaba’s full capability contributions to the bottom line.

So not until the new trading year commencing from July ’26 onwards will the trading updates give a full and clear indication of the increased contributions to the bottom line.

Hence my assertion tha

(Part 2 concludes )>

Intended to post that the week before Christmas.

However, I thought it might be deemed a bit negative before Christmas, so left it – but posting it now to see if it still holds water; I think it does -

2025 has revealed the SP break-out that commenced from the very beginning of ’25 to be the strongest SP trend ever, since the all-time historical high of May ’21 - And is still going at full strength!

So, what about my concerns of “unseating the SP/ and then overcoming it?

If it does commence such an action after such a strong rising trend, it’s possible it may occur where sellers classed as “overhead supply” now find the SP has risen close to where they have bought and been hung up, sporting a paper loss from years ago - and now with salvation at hand it may be seen as time to sell and recover their cash - and run for the hills!

This usually harmless ‘overhead supply’ as it’s known, lies at significant prior highs in many stocks and can be unsettling, but it never lasts - only for as long until the last of the resistant sellers finally capitulate. That’s expected and can be seen in many volatile stocks.

The SP has already in ’25 overcome some minor prior highs, so it’s up for more attempts.

Does this year-long (’25 and continuing) break-out represent a new significant upwave, or will it collapse and retrace down, just as ALL previous attempts have done to date, since the highs of ‘21?

That outcome has to be decided first. If a bearish outcome, then it would be another post of observable data to confirm if a new direction has the legs or not.

I have it in mind that first major test area is likely to be circa, in the 113p-ish area.

Why?

Because that’s the first of where several significant similar prior highs of previous break-outs of note, all failed to get past 113p...-ish.

These areas can easily be seen by the naked eye without resort to complicated chart drawings by merely looking to the left of the price action at where capitulation of all the prior highs ended. The big one was of course, the SP collapse of just under the 150p area of May ’21.

There have been several break-out attempts in the years following that ATHigh but the most notable which appeared to have a lot going for them all got whacked on the head in a game of whack-amole the second the SP dared to poke its head up into the 113p-ish area.

So just look at the death-throes of the bull trends that collapsed from circa:

Jan ’23,

and

Feb ’23,

March ’22,

& finally, back to

Oct ’21

(I include Oct ’21 by widening the danger area down to 111p up to 114p for the others).

Four occasions of very strong break-out attempts that all collapsed at the same price level – in the same vicinity of 113p-ish.

So, I’m expecting extreme volatility anywhere between 111p and 114p.

Sorry, part 2 follows >

Re:

I will post the SP areas (based on prior highs) that IMO have the potential to unseat the SP/ - has to overcome to continue this progress, either later on, or tomorrow.”

The above is what I’m about to post on, to complete my intention from yesterday -

= = = = = =

However beforehand, among a couple of things that have accidentally become known today which perhaps answer some posters questions; Why the apparent lack of progress in the SP to the upbeat news on SLP? - that deserves a separate post to prevent a long-winded post across multiple subjects/ points of view –

It would appear the financial media is “on to” Berenberg’s updates deliberately downplaying what they really think the fair value of a future SP will likely be – most likely because of the criticism laid at their door in previous years, of them overestimating SLP’s performance and subsequent SLP going on to underperforming to Berenberg’s forecasts.

Can’t believe the following information came from Yahoo Finance pages. It was thrust at me following on from checking out a post below today, advising that Berenberg today have upgraded their valuation of the SP to 127p!

I’m going to quote directly from the source, so the implications sink in on how the potential true value of SLP’s SP, has been deliberately underplayed by the premier brokers’ analyst:

This is the link to the Yahoo Finance story:

[ What Analysts Think Is Changing the Sylvania Platinum Story for Investors ]

I'm quoting the pertinent parts -

“ Berenberg has raised its Sylvania Platinum price target TWICE in October, from 90p to 106p and then to 109p, while reiterating a Buy rating, signalling growing conviction in the upside to the current share price.

The successive target upgrades suggest Berenberg is rewarding Sylvania’s execution and cash generation potential, with higher assumed volumes and basket prices supporting a richer valuation framework. “

- Okay so far so good, so here’s where the downplaying by Berenberg comes up when the report says:

“Despite the bullish stance, Berenberg’s use of incremental target hikes RATHER THAN A SINGLE STEP CHANGE implies some caution on near term risks and the degree to which stronger fundamentals MAY ALREADY BE REFLECTED IN THE PRICE.”

- My take on that, is that after much criticism of Berenberg over estimating trading performance in prior years, they’re unwilling to stick their neck out too far and want SLP to perform first and only then - issue a trading upgrade to their low-ball prior forecasts!

In other words, Berenberg is likely to only ever be issuing upgrade after upgrade until they finally reveal what the true potential has really been all along!

- - - - - - - - -

Will get round to my initial intention posting up at the top, later on.

That for SLP - circa, January 26th 2026 - will be more important than ever, so need to focus more closely on my SLP holdings for the upcoming half-year interim results release, expected on that date (now just a little over one month away) so thought, if I can clear my desks - why not post on why it’s so important?

- Important because the future forecast revenue/earnings etc., are superb, possibly transformative insomuch that they will confirm that 2024 WAS the ultimate floor, with 2025 results showing the new trend – upwards, and was not a fluke.

This current trading year appears to be magnificently building on last year’s break-out year (2025 trading year) - but as always with SLP, (on what to expect next) the analyst’s forecasts have proven to be unreliable, due to so few accredited analysts following the Co, rendering their opinions well adrift of reality, as shown on multiple occasions (back in the day) by ol’ Bangrack himself supplying his own (accurate forecast calculations) that trumped the single accredited analyst, with the paid-for analysts faring not much better – but Bangrack’s were always to the downside, but correct! – As proven by the actual annual results.

However, there’s much to believe in the current set of forecast results being closer to the mark this current trading year as the big long-term decline from the ultimate high of May 2021 is well and truly over.

What I’m alluding to are that both the fundamentals and the SP cyclicality, are aligned with the stars in every aspect:

Revenue peaked in 2021 at an all-time high of $206m

and Net Profit @ £99.8m

(ie., The top line and the bottom line).

And every year since ’21 has been down, down, down, taking the SP with it, finally flooring in ’24 with the big break-out appearing with the full year ’25 results.

The forecasts I’m seeing are for this current trading year (to June ’26) are:

Revenue up @ $176m (’25 was well up on ’24 which produced $104m)

So, a massive increase forecast!

With Net Profit forecasts of $58.2m again well up and almost, nearly triple last year’s N/Profit!

And it doesn’t end there, with the following year’s forecast (2027) maintaining the momentum with a continuing increase of Revenue @ $186 and Net Profit of $64.2m.

And that’s why it’s clear should the SP trend continue (more on that after this) when you consider the year designated as the floor only produced Revenue of $81.7m and Nett Profit of only $6.98m – dangerously close to the zero line!

So, will those analyst’s current and next year forecasts be any better than the accuracy of those of yesteryear?

Well, that’s why I’m keen to see the half year interim results near the end of January next year to see if they fit with the forecasts.

- UH oh! Sorry about this (must be more succinct) - bit fell off the end, so will post that bit after this

Yesterday marked 8 days of non-stop consequtive rises in the SP over the previous day.

That's a record breaking run for this year despite a similar attempt at the May/June border.

Statistics (quick read version) :

"In conclusion: While there's no universally agreed-upon number, streaks of 7 or more consecutive positive daily closes are often cited as statistically significant, suggesting they are unlikely to occur randomly, and may indicate other factors at play".

Longer read version:

"In a random walk scenario, a streak of consecutive positive daily closes (where the stock price closes higher than the previous day) is expected to occur with a probability that decreases as the length of the streak increases. There isn't a definitive number that definitively declares a streak beyond random chance, as it depends on the desired level of statistical significance. However, streaks of 7 or more consecutive positive closes are often considered statistically significant, meaning they are unlikely to occur by chance alone.

Explanation:

Random Walk:

The concept of a random walk in stock prices suggests that price movements are unpredictable and independent of past trends. In this model, each day's price change is essentially a coin flip (up or down), and consecutive wins (positive closes) are like flipping heads multiple times in a row.

Probability:

The probability of a coin flip landing on heads (or a stock price closing up) is 50%. The probability of getting two heads in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/4, three in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/8, and so on. This means longer streaks become increasingly less probable.

Statistical Significance:

Statisticians often use a threshold (like 5% or 1%) to determine if an observed event is "statistically significant." This means that if the probability of the event happening by chance is below that threshold, it's considered unlikely to be a random occurrence and might indicate some underlying factor at play.

Streak Length:

A run of 7 consecutive positive closes has a probability of (1/2)^7, which is approximately 0.0078 or 0.78%. This is often below the 1% threshold, suggesting that a streak of 7 or more is unlikely to occur randomly.

Beyond Randomness:

While a streak of 7 or more might be considered a strong indication beyond randomness, it's important to remember that this is based on a simplified random walk model. Real-world stock prices are influenced by many factors, not just random chance. Therefore, it's crucial to consider other factors and not solely rely on streak length when analyzing stock behavior.

In conclusion: While there's no universally agreed-upon number, streaks of 7 or more consecutive positive daily closes are often cited as statistically significant, suggesting they are unlikely to occur randomly, and may indicate other factors at play".

===

After a long spell of sunshine I wouldn't bet against an odd single rainy day or two.

Holy Moley! Didn’t expect to see you here again, Stoodio :)

It’s heading for midnight here, just winding down, having a quiet cuppa and a flick of the phone, before turning in - What a surprise - this must be the third or fourth time I’ve posted that I am unlikely to post again for a while, and yet after seeing your post - here I am, posting again! :)

Good to see you again Stoodio. Hope the world has been kind to you over the past few years. I’m just past attending 2 funerals, six months apart, and now find myself in the midst of moving house to back up north.

Was going to ask what brings you here, but your arrival was recently foretold by Quiggers somewhere below, who posted he was not at all surprised when I turned up after a long absence, and he also expected Stoodio to show up next, and then predicted Bangrack would show up later.

Yes, that’s right – He has the gift of prophesy!

– The boy has the gift I tell you! The gift! The gift!

He’s already prophesied the return of the 2 Hobbits to the Shire of SLP. Hobbits who must now go on to complete their quest. That’s 2 out of the 3 events so far that he’s accurately predicted. Respect!

Will/if the arrival of Gandalf-the-Bangrack, trigger the foretelling to compel us all to find the SLP Volcano Mountain, I wonder?

If so, then:

Herald the long-horned trumpets!

Send out the scouts!

Inform the Elves!

Assemble the tribes!

Assemble the armies!

Set forth to reawaken SLP from Volcano Mountain, and let us commence this new quest for wealth and fortune!

I have just one question for Quiggers though, and that is –

What are this week’s winning lottery numbers?

And if he has any spare time (okay it’s 2 questions) - the winner of the 2:30 at Kempton Park this Saturday, please.

No rush Quiggers, in your own time.

. . . However, the lottery numbers before the end of Friday, please.

- But no rush, no pressure – all in your own good time.

. . . but would really prefer them by Friday please, before the evening moon arises.

- Also (Alright okay, 3 questions then!) What price will the SP close at, this Friday?

Again, no rush, only if the mood strikes.

I’ll understand if you say you’re busy attempting to pull a silver sword out of a huge, centuries old, ancient stone.

Stoodio - I take it, that as you appear to favour Turn-Around plays, you’re here because you’re reconsidering re-opening a position in SLP again?

Right, Nodding off already.

“Why SLP share should not go back to May 2021 price, . . .”

= = = = = = = =

I should be getting on with readying to move house so this is a nice distraction I can blame for my slothfulness.

Nimrod - although I based my doubt that we can ever see top-of-the-bubble record breaking 2021 ‘trading results’ again, I see you’ve (quite naturally) implied that there’s no reason the share price of May ‘21 can not be revisited again.

Well I hope you’re right. However, I was focusing more on the pounds and pence balance sheet trading results (but I agree it’s implied that the SP would respond also) to the coming increases Y-O-Y to last year’s floor.

A pithy saying with stocks is that - SP’s fall at a faster rate than they rise.

So if you are proven to be correct, might we expect to wait longer than the past couple of years annoying retrace before revisting that price?

The SP peaked at an all-time intra-day high of just about 150p in May ‘21. Not such a leap from here, I admit. However, here’s a reminder of the decline in the trading results since 2021 to end of ‘24, that makes me think it may take longer than thought to reach ‘21’s all time highs.

2021 Revenue was $206m - Net Profit @ $99.8m

2022 Revenue was $152m - Net Profit @ $56.2m

2023 Revenue was $130m - Net Profit @ $45.4m

2024 Revenue was $ 81.7m -Net Profit @ $ 6.98m

Estimated:

2025 Revenue $106m - Net Profit $13.6m

2026 Revenue $145m - Net Profit $33.4m

2027 (To be advised after results in September).

PGM prices were at their all time highs by May ‘21

Rhodium reached a high 28,775 helping produce those fantastic trading results that year, before collapsing to today’s value of 5,825.

That’s a long way to claw back Rhodium’s ‘21 value.

(However the Thaba JV contribution expected from now on, should go some way to ameliorate that disparity, contributing 9% per year - estimated).

(Rhodium and all PGM’s all appear to have hit their floor by end of last year, and since then, are on the rise). Similar for trading results.

It’s been reported in the media that due to SLP’s asset management, that any small rises in PGM’s will disproportionately be reflected in higher earnings than would otherwise be the case for SLP. So not ruling out revisiting the May ‘21 high’s of the SP. But how long before seeing it? Years?

I prefer to keep a modest outlook until the first of the recovery results are in. There might be a Q4 trading update before the end of July so attention will be more on any nods to the full year results expected in early September as still: ‘being in line to meet guidance’.

.

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