Member Info for Velo

“…Welcome back from your hiatus.”

= = = = = =

Thank you Shareminator - I’m not back; just a flying visit :)

- Saying that, I am more than interested and v keen, to see the upcoming full year results that are expected circa the first week in September (so I might be about then) as market guidance expectations are bullishly high, and if achieved, potentially double-confirming that the close of last year was the ultimate, final floor, for the decline in the SP - as expectations are all to the upside - should the trading results come in, in-line with market guidance - and I do still have holdings in both my SIPP and an ISA (both under water) so I can’t ignore SLP.

2025 does appear so far, to be displaying stronger trending bullishness in the ultra long-term trends, than all the previous year’s false break-out attempts; so all hangs on the results coming in to meet those market guidance expectations.

What I’m personally looking forward to, after the results, is the new 2027 market guidance forecasts as the % increases for Revenue & Earnings in this current new trading year ending June ‘26, are impressively bullish.

Is it the JV contributions coming through, or that and the improving PGM prices?

What I mean is, everything is flying using the terrible ‘24 results as the floor v current market guidance, with Revenue due to increase for the first time in years by 29%! in the Sept results.

And Earnings (Net Profit) expected to increase even more so, coming in at double last year’s net profit to show a 100% increase!!!!

- That’s for this September.

Now take a gander at market guidance for ‘26 - Revenue increases again by a further 37% with the bottom line simply staggering with expectations of coming in with a further 147% increase on ‘25’s result!

So, a lot hangs on the September reveal. Last year, ‘24 was utterly the most dismal performance since the great bubble of ‘21, so although the increases look terrific, they are achieved by smashing the very low base of ‘24 as when compared to the bubble results of ‘21 - well that just looks long term unreachable to ever see again.

But then again, I’m out of touch with research on SLP, since I’ve ‘been away’ :)

So, holders need September results to confirm and provide the facts to the market guidance and thus if they’re achieved, provide the impetus for further increases.

“Oh God here we go back in sunshine and Velo turns up maybe with … “

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Ha :)

- Hi Quiggers,

Is that a lament of my prior long-winded multi-page posts or did I insult you back in the day? I did call someone a Nazi, etc., (Upon reflection I apologise – I should have only called them the milder Hitler youth).

Or were you the one whom I castigating for reliance on Discounted future Cash Flows to obtain fair value SP’s that involved 10 year forecasts of future interest rates et al?

I’d prefer if it was just a side-effect reaction of yours to those long winded posts of mine rather than a direct barb/insult.

(By the way, discounted valuations are currently forecasting fair value for SLP in the range well north of £6. I’m always prepared to admit when I’m wrong - but you gotta gimme that £6 up front first! :)

Stoodio, was no sidekick - I was in awe of his foresight in buying SLP at 6p!

As for Bangrak he may well have been overtly bearish but hindsight has since proven his outlook to have been the correct stance to take after Rhodium collapsed immediately after first hitting a record-breaking South-Sea-bubble-type peak in May ‘21.

(I was ignoring my own trend lines at the time. Poor self-discipline!)

Look in the mirror time, as I blamed only myself for not selling - when my own charts were screaming their heads off that it was over for Rhodium).

In all this, luck is never mentioned. Am doing very well currently (as are others) in a certain gold miner after holding it from the same era as first buying SLP - 6 years ago!

It went on to crash the SP spectacularly - far worse than SLP and stayed dead for the same timespan, but like SLP I have held on for sunnier days and luck came to the rescue ( or if luck is an unacceptable term, I could say after looking at my trend following charts and deciding to double my ‘crap’ holding in Jan this year and doubling that holding again, weeks later.

I’ve let the ship sail and ignored SLP, but see what comes out in the wash eventually; might tinker with it - If a top-up entry of sufficient pullback reappears again.

Hey! Found this post of mine from a couple of years ago, when writing this post up -

“ I want to practice more of keeping my own counsel in 2023 with fewer posts. A mate is encouraging me to do so also, as well as reading of it as a best practice, elsewhere too.”

- Think I’ve not done too bad in limiting my posts since then.

PS. Charts? What charts? :)

- All charts are v bullish on the current situation with SLP - at every level!

Personally, I think the SP has been run into commencing an overbought situation - just a matter of looking out for convenient pullbacks to self-correct when a bit of reversion to the mean occurs - before re-continuing this bull run. So maybe a nice (ie., cheap) top or two between here and October then a hearty November and December, is my personal perspective for the remainder of ‘25

" The wider market is blissfully unaware of the developing picture here. There may only be a couple dozen people actively using the LSE forum who are tracking PGM price movements and who are aware of Sylvania Platinum."

- - - - - - - - - -

- Only a couple of dozen?

Hmm....

Does that include us ex-SLP posters from back in the day (& still holding) but now defined as non-posting lurkers? :)

Hi Rusty,

Yes it really is a family run business with his daughter in charge of legal affairs and his son as the MD.

Interestingly his daughter holds over half a million pounds worth of company shares but his son holds none - as far as I can make out.

However, slapped over my link to the company is the alert:

This security is involved in a takeover situation.

However, it's a bit (to me) mysterious.

Hence I'm thinking the takeover issue must revolve around Serge's massive share holding as selling those in an open market would destroy the SP - but a private takeover sale would not.

Just thinking out loud :) about the so-called takeover situation.

----

PS. Latest photo's of Serge reveal a physically fit looking, youthful, slim and well dressed, dapper man - and you'd never guess he was 83 unless told so beforehand.

See? Get rich and that's how we could all look too :)

Looks like the media are focusing on lower profits (hence earlier progress of 400+ dissapates away) starting with the news button above with:

" Liontrust profits sink amid 'challenging' market environment"

"(Sharecast News) - Shares in Liontrust fell on Wednesday after the asset manager reported a sharp fall in annual profits and n..."

Price holding up nicely, back up over in the 400's with a quick visit to 410 - but not even 30 minutes into the day yet. Looking reasonably okay by the market reaction.

Right, chores to do :)

Yes, big drop in opening minutes but nice climb back to the border of the 400's currently.

Briefly time only for top line and the bottom line earnings.

1).

Surprisingly, Revenue not only came in, in line with market guidance but approx slightly better. (However as expected still less than the previous year's revenue).

2)

Net Profit only achieved less than half the market guidance. So earnings missed guidance by a considerable margin.

However last year was a total loss at the bottom line. Not so this year.

That's only a glance as not time yet to read fully as am tied up for hours yet.

So, revenue is down on last year as fully expected.

However, before jumping to a half baked conclusion earnings are greater than last year's total loss.

Will the increase in revenue against market expectations mitigate a little against the less than expected Net Profit?

At least the previous year's total loss at the bottom line has been avoided.

Serge Crasnianski is 83 years old. He is by far the largest holder of shares in the company, owning 36.5% of it. Is he looking to not only retire but cash-out at the same time and maybe use the cash to secure his family dynasty?

At 83 wouldn't be surprised if he's mulling over his own mortality as many may do once reaching such a great age.

I too, have had a long interest in Bunzl, without ever placing it on a watch list. However, before choosing my moment to invest there are a few caveats that concern me.

First off, the massive one-day drop in April as a direct result of the profit warning within the trading update, means that I don’t personally expect sustained bullish performance visible in the SP until after next year’s full year trading results, circa spring ‘26.

Any apparent SP break-out’s this year, I suspect will come be viewed as ‘unreliable’ and eventually will be reigned in.

In the meantime investors making partial tranche top-up’s at perceived ultra lows is okay for committed long term holders - but as an investor yet to make an initial holding in Bunzl, I am in no hurry to buy before next week’s trading update. And might prefer from late summer /autumn lows, onwards, instead.

Before the April profit warning, Revenue and Net profit guidance for ‘25 was £12.1b Revenue & £660m Net Profit.

After the profit warning, market guidance was downgraded to £11.746b Revenue & £570m Net Profit.

As the adjusted market guidance shows Revenue only a slight tad under last year’s revenue and net profit greater than last year’s, one might think that all will be well - if achieved.

The only thing is, North America was mentioned in the profit warning as of particular concern in contributing to the downgrade and makes Bunzl liable to be considered ‘at risk’ from the sociopathic mad orange man in the US, and thus the market has yet to agree that companies with significant reliance on contribution from their US exposure, are not out of the woods. And even if trading meets the lower guidance, there are concerns of will the SP languish? - Due to the US anti-competitive restrictive tariff influence.

However, longer term, Bunzl will outlive the orange man, so playing for the long game I’m only going to (try) and buy the v deep dips only (easier said than done) and not expect some sustained SP progress until after spring next year.

Not a forecast; just a personal opinion :)

PS. Director buys: Note the CEO made the largest buy of all directors by a considerable margin of £1.1m - on the day of the profit warning trading update.

- Would have be very impressive but for the fact he (the CEO no less!) sells a week later, three quarters of that buy - (and at a 2p lower SP price, therefore suffering a small loss) but nonetheless he sold £858,000 worth, after just 6 days!

Since April there have been 5 director sells since the profit warning - two in 6 figures. The others mostly in 5 figures.

Personally, not convinced anything overtly positive can be read in to the directors share transactions.

@ Jiffybag

Not that it's important but the sentence that I used ie., "- By the way, the close to the week is 17.3p which is what I used" came out at 346p for the consolidation.

However, had previously read another poster's post offerring £3. As opinions were floating about I went for the word '£3 area" as fit-all-size as posts mentioned an average of the final days might be used rather than the last price before consolidation.

Hi JiffyBag,

Yes, sorry about that - Thanks for your help in bringing it to my attention. However, Pooroldman had already alerted me to it, so I've added a post to the thread, correcting my fat finger error, below. (Thought I had multiplied by 20 but turns out I must have fat fingered the zero and only multiplied by 2) !!

- By the way, the close to the week is 17.3p which is what I used.

That 17.75 you quote is an infrequent misalignment by LSE's software, but the site is free so we can't really complain can't we? :)

Thanks again Pooroldman.

So now I would now like to correct a para or two in my post below that should now have read:

. . . As July 1st commences the new trading year, the consensus earnings forecasts increase dramatically, so a ratio of P/E20 would equate to an SP of 30.3p

And the new 20:1 split would mean, in new money, that would equate to 606p - if a ratio of P/E 20 was achieved.

- As current thinking is for an SP in the £3 area after consolidation, with the current ratio at P/E 14.8 that means that if Greatland continues the momentum and joins the average P/E ratio for gold miners at P/E 20, it reveals the potential to motor on from the £3 area up to the £6 area! And all that is based on analysts forward ‘low’ valuations! (Forecasts which I believe they will bullishly update in November when the first full year record breaking profits are published) . . .

Many thanks Pooroldman.

You are correct! - I should have typed £6.06 where I wrote:

" And the new 20:1 split would mean, in new money, that would equate to only 151.50p."

Can't believe I multiplied by 5 instead of 20! Doh!!!

Based on the latest available in-house broker’s analysts Consensus market guidance forecasts I’ve used their earnings forecasts and using the current shares in issue (before it all changes soon) to see the latest P/E ratio that closed on Friday's SP.

First off, one subscription-only site I use, is showing an unbelievable high forward ratio of P/E 50! And that’s been the case since the H1 RNS. Maybe that’s because actual earnings at the 6 month H1 period reported in May, contain a hefty tax refund which increased earnings dramatically from a loss into a profit; obviously as tax refunds are one-offs, the analysts deduct those first. That’s the only reason their v high P/E ratios dwarfs the standard, classic text book calculation of P/E's.

At this weekend’s close of 17.3p I have a ratio of P/E 14.8 well below the average gold miners some have reported as being P/E 20

On current forecast earnings, to run with a ratio of P/E 20 the SP would have to hit 23.4p

In the meantime should 20p hove into view next week, that would deliver a ratio of P/E 17.1

- - -

As July 1st commences the new trading year, the consensus earnings forecasts increase dramatically so a ratio of P/E20 would equate to an SP of 30.3p

And the new 20:1 split would mean, in new money, that would equate to only 151.50p.

- As current thinking is for an SP in the £3 area after consolidation, you can see the analysts current earnings forecasts are woefully low that I use in the P/E ratio above - but I have used consensus analysts earnings forecasts - not anyone else’s. As that’s what the market uses for guidance

Anyway, achieving an SP in the lower 20p’s next week, still keeps the P/E ratio well below P/E 20

- Full year results in November should put all P/E ratios to bed once and for all as my belief is most analysts are in a mindset of undervaluing Greatland until they see the first full year audited results in November. So for myself, November is more important to me, than the impact of the consolidation - as clarity will come to fore.

PS. Some sites show an SP of 30p as a fair valuation for Greatland right now, whatever P/E that involves!

(... It's been so slow getting here, I'm tempted to sell...)

Dubs, (and in case anyone else of a similar mindset, as I was until learning of Telfer actually contributing results in December) I take it that it was the 5 "slow" years of the non-stop down trending SP, was the culprit in your raising that option?)

- Don't overlook the second leg up to the imminent Cross Listing. And that is the record breaking, end of this month full year trading results - that will be published in November.

I hold the strong conviction that November will improve on any SP momentum derived from the Cross Listing. I expect market guidance to not only be met but comprehensively beaten with subsequent market reappraisal of the SP.

Other considerations would be to only sell a portion of your holding, as there is a school of thought that runs when cashing in, on a successful stock, always leave a portion/smaller holding presence in that successful stock.

However, there will come a time when you will be proved correct in that Geo political events could impact Greatland negatively.

However, as Geo political events are currently playing to Greatland's strengths, it suggests that instead, reconsider when Geo political events turn optimistic and positivity abounds in international relations.

-( Likely to be a long wait?)

You're already invested in a defensive stock. So well done you.

All UK indices are down today.

As are many other international indices.

Israel talks today of 'war' with Iran and not of just a strike. This is AI news summing up, just 2 hours old -

"Global stocks dropped and oil prices surged after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Safe-haven assets rose while airline stocks fell amid rising fuel costs and flight disruptions. Defense stocks surged as investors reacted to heightened geopolitical tensions."

Yes, the share consolidation is the obvious consideration but how much of today's rise is also a reflection of bigger entities contributing further into defensive stocks?

(Part 2 concludes)

My understanding of the dates is that GGP shares disappear in a puff of smoke at 7:00am on Monday 23rd June and reappear as GRL one hour later at 8:00am.

So nothing to see anyway between 7am and 8am :)

And the prospect of seeing a previous holding example of say 100,000 shares now reduced to showing as just 5,000 shares at the same time.

Then a moment to hold one’s breath and if today’s close of 16.5p also happens to also be the close on Friday the 22nd June, then they should appear at 8:00am on the 23rd June hopefully at circa £3.30 odd, thus giving the same valuation as the old holding.

It will be the next day Tuesday June 24th (less than a fortnight now) that the new GRL shares are launched on the ASX down under.

I’m not yet sure if, or how far, the SP on ASX will soar on the day, setting the lead for AIM - as it is my firm belief that the full end of year results at the close of the month, hold the key to the ASX performance. And that end of year close comes days after the ASX launch day. And even then, we won’t see those full year results until they are published in November!

- So I will not be disappointed at all, if the ASX has less effect on the SP than expected; as only the expected record breaking full year results will move the SP into super-star status from November onwards (IMO) and moves Greatland well clear out of 5 years+ of the jam-tomorrow arena, and into proven factual successful results that finally opens the floodgates.

Then again, wadda I know about Cross Listings and down under Indexs, so all IMO only :)

PS.

The research also reveals that many of us may have unwittingly have engaged in international Cross- Listings anyway. When I checked I realised - Yes! I had done so, in another sphere of commerce and the results perfectly illustrate the achievements that can be made in participating in them - but won't reveal my personal results just now as post too long as is.

(Part 1 of 2) Too long, I know :(

Well what a brill couple of days eh? Anyway want to post about the cross listing -

Spymaster25 @

“ I don't think this will be allowed to run too far before the listing. We don't want to attract traders churn.”

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Don’t know about the first sentence, as pure logic has been stymied at every turn in outguessing the SP before the ASX launch. However it’s your “...don’t want to attract traders churn” sentence, that I hold the view, that’s exactly what will happen - but not before; only from when the new shares float on ASX - and that’s based on researching Cross Listings some months ago.

Have held shares that had a dual listing without concern but Cross Listing was the first I’d ever heard of such a thing, courtesy of GGP.

One of the main effects of Cross Listings is that the research reveals to expect traders (ie., hedge funds/ option traders?) coming to the fore to take advantage of any disparity in the two different SP’s in each listing.

Broadly speaking most investors expect a greater take-up of the company’s shares on ASX. And if that turns out to be the case, then that presupposes that here on AIM we holders will become the poor cousins in the relationship. So, if say good news propels the new shares here on AIM with an increase in the SP by 3%/ 4%, it might be probable that independently the ASX shares do prove to be more popular, and rise even higher say for instance by 9%/ 10%.

It’s that scenario the research indicates that traders often buy lower priced shares in one index to then sell for a profit in the more buoyant index. (Don’t know how we private investors would actually do that, I’m just quoting the research data)

However on reading that, my initial thoughts were that if cheaper shares here on AIM were bought just to be sold on the ASX, then market forces would eventually rise to meet the new demand placed on AIM Greatland shares, thus bringing AIM priced shares up to within the region of the higher priced ASX index. So to my mind a win/win anyway - but those who dislike the ‘churn’ involved would have to endure the volatility.

However it’s not that issue that sticks in my mind it was the fact that companies who engage in Cross Listings go on to face (so the research reveals) very high costs as they have to employ teams of people to administer the full cross listing in addition to the new ASX index fees. As GGP moves to become GRL and its revenue is now by June close, in part-billions and net profits in year one to be circa near £0.5 billion, and £0.75 billion in year two, I imagine SD with all his specialist finance background has the new increased costs all accounted and costed for.

My understanding of the dates is that GGP shares disappear in a puff of smoke at 7:00am on Monday 23rd June and reappear as GRL one hour later at 8:00am.

So nothing to see anyway between 7am and 8

( Sorry Part 2 follows >>>)

What a brill SP close to the day!

Who’d have thunk it after such a poor start in the morning. It’s times like this that I muse to myself that:

The more I learn as the years pass by, the more I realise how little I know.

Just before I pop back in me box -

I was dismissive of the early media focus on Revenue being slightly down and quietly brushed it aside as peanuts. £20b.odd market guidance expected with £20b.odd achieved in the trading result. All the market was expecting was £20b.odd!

However, I suppose they’re right, because a couple of hundred million down is still hundreds of millions down. Hmmph... £20b+ last year, £20b+ achieved this year. So what?

I bet Mittal and his billions gets played like that too :) :)

Net Profit (after tax) is showing in the RNS this morning as £1.054b (I used that in my early post this morning).

The market guidance was for circa £1.3b So I knew earnings were below market guidance (but well up on last year) yet the media was reporting ‘core’ earnings of £8.21b! What?

- The Media said it was a little below market guidance of £8.23b but 1% up on last year.

£8b Eh? Where has ‘core earnings’ come from?

Only thing showing £8b is the EBITDA entry, ie., all before deductions.

There’s Gross Profit,

Pre-tax Net profit

and Net profit/(earnings) after tax.

- Now I’ve got to learn “core” earnings? WTF?!?

Read a piece from the Times that had A. Kirby speaking. Was that the catalyst for the magnificent change in the SP direction today? If so the market likes her. For those who impatiently diss her - don’t! She has the power to change the SP trajectory in a single day!