Member Info for Uncle_Doug

Why is the SP down so much. I'm guessing over the next few months airports and train stations will be pretty empty. Govt might shut down shops and food places like in Italy. High Streets will be deserted, only essential travel allowed,etc. It will all pick up again at some point but lots of disruption to go through first.

More lost revenue - is this still a "win win" situation SAGE?
RYA website:
Ryanair has been forced to suspend a number of flights from Italy to Austria.
Ryanair has been forced to suspend a number of flights from Italy to Spain.
Ryanair has been forced to suspend a number of flights from Italy to Morocco.
Ryanair has been forced to suspend a number of flights from Italy to Portugal.
Ryanair has been forced to suspend a number of flights from Italy to Denmark.

All customers affected by these specific changes have been notified of their options of a full refund or a free flight time/date change.

SAGE
"I`m telling you there will not be the multi thousands of deaths some are predicting."
"Every day the sun gets higher - more UV rays - more resistance and immune systems working better"

Where is your clinical or factual evidence for these statements? Have you made a vaccine in your garden shed? Stop spreading lies and listen to the experts. Stop comparing it to flu which doesn't cause nurses to have to wear full hamzat suits and whole countries to go into lockdown. It's a new virus, there is no immunity yet. The WHO and PHE said nothing about warm weather killing off COVID-19. It's nowt to do with UV or high sun - it's all about buying some time, delaying the 'peak' so we can free up some acute beds in the NHS which are currently full of people dying already. Viruses can evolve and mutate and the medics know very little about this new one. Have you seen the horrible scenes on TV of Italy's crowded hospitals and doctors having to decide which patients to get a bed and which ones will have to die. Get real FFS or at least just shut up.

Brent now up 8% to $35.1. Crazy couple of weeks.

Up 10%. That's too much bounce for a DCB, recovery time. I just bought in for the next 20% (48p)

Classic Dead Cat Bounce Today (so far)

Once everyone's told to go home, stop driving around and the schools are closed, which is coming soon, I can't see many purchases at Greggs but they'll still have to pay all their staff. We are 2 weeks behind Italy and with a worse health system and fewer beds. This isn't priced in yet. Another 20% drop to come. I might be tempted at £14.

Down again, FTSE up. Looks like nobody wants to hold these over the weekend if more total flight bans might be announced.

muscorum : "Giving vaccinations to counter flu is not doing nothing. A bit of informed debate please."

Wrong. The NHS offered 25M flu jabs this last season. According to The University of Oxford Vaccine Knowledge Project, the annual inactivated vaccine - which does not contain any live flu viruses - prevented 44% of flu cases in 2018-19 compared to only 15% in 2017-18. The vaccine's effectiveness varies each year. With COVID-19 there is NO immunity and NO vaccine. Italy (pop. 60M) now getting more daily deaths than at the so-called "peak" in China (pop. 1386M). Can you see why I don't believe China's figures? Informed enough for you?

Lots of morons taking dangerous rubbish here. "inline with seasonal flu", etc. It's more inline with Spanish flu which killed 50M. Do you see doctors and nurses in full hamzat suits when you go into your hospital with seasonal flu? Not many deaths yet because we haven't hit the peak. Italy just got 2650 new cases and 189 deaths (IN ONE DAY) and it still hasn't peaked. They also have 1153 in critical so we can assume a lot of them will die. We are on the same trajectory but 2 weeks behind Italy's curve. All countries will get the hammered by this virus. You don't cancel a basketball season, lockdown entire countries and close all shops/cafes/theatres/pubs, etc for seasonal flu. Don't believe the numbers from China - they're probably hiding loads of cases and deaths if not locking people in their homes. Some countries have better health systems and more ventilator beds than UK (e.g. Italy). Nobody knows but I reckon 1M deaths in UK is possible, way more than seasonal flu. The NHS has no way to cope with the scale of critical cases coming in 2/3 weeks or so.

that's it

Why are the markets down another 7% today? The FTSE's down 27% down in a month. sage told me it was only the flu and if people cancel flights it's a "win win" situation.

colleges and universities ... more cancelled flights coming soon, watch this space. Probably another "win win" for Ryanair eh sage? Oh sorry, you're pretending to filter me , I forgot.

sage (and others) keep carping on about seasonal flu? It is totally irrelevant. The COVID-19 situation is quite different - although some symptoms are similar. Many of us have some immunity to flu over many years of living, catching flu strains and through inherited genes. Since COVID-19 is a new pathogen, people do not have any immunity to it AT ALL, and a vaccine may be many years away. COVID-19 is highly infectious and the mortality rate is estimated to be about 2%. This is way more sick/dying people than most health systems can cope with if the virus spreads. It is additional stress to an already creaking NHS. Have you not seen the hospitals in Italy? So, we still have flu PLUS we now have COVID-19. The government are trying to delay it's inevitable peak so some of the severe flu-ridden patients are out of hospital beds by Spring/Summer. Nod your head if you understand.

Yes I agree. I'm waiting for sub £2 ... or at least some concrete signs things are getting better. Loads of virus cases are unreported as testing has been minimal - loads of people going round infecting others. This ain't going away.

OK - so it just crashed through 520 and 500 so where does that leave us now? Once you're off the chart there is no bottom and support levels mean SFA. I don't believe in charting as they can never predict stuff like this - a new virus that throws the world off kilter. They can also never predict a company's failure - Carillion, Flybe, Thomas Cook, etc.

BTW, yes to iii.

not because I've got any symptoms - I'm fine, but I don't want anyone passing it to me. I am staying put in my house for a month. I've got enough soup, pasta and bog rolls.

Easy to see another 20% coming off this. Bl00dy nightmare. New prediction £11.

Long way to go yet. US has only just started panicking. Italy has lost control of this virus and UK, Spain, France, Germany and USA are on the same trajectory, just a few days behind the curve. Wake up and smell the coffee people ... or are you seriously waiting for all the schools to be closed?

for all the insults. I called it a month ago as a Strong Sell at 16€. Down 32% since then. Now, I hope you took my advice and sold or at the very least avoided buying or averaging down. I still think there's further down to go (€8) especially now that the US (as I predicted) are panicking. Regarding the virus - UK, Spain, Germany, USA are on the same trajectory as Italy but behind the curve as the spread started later. UK has half the ventilation beds that Italy had so more woe to come I'm afraid.
Lots of love, Uncle D1ck